PHYS0629 / PHYS1056

Weather and Climate

Tropical Cyclones



29 November 2013

Dr T C Lee
Hong Kong Observatory

Source: NASA image courtesy the MODIS Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC
Content
1. Introduction
2. Interactions and Associated phenomena
3. Monitoring and Forecasting Tropical Cyclones
4. Tropical Cyclone Warning History
5. Devastating Storms
6. Long term variation of Tropical Cyclones
1. Introduction

Formation conditions
Structure
Intensity metric & classification
Movement
Tropical cyclone basins
Naming of tropical cyclones
Climatology of tropical cyclones
Impacts of tropical cyclones
Favourable Conditions

Important environmental conditions for a tropical cyclone to
form :

Warm ocean waters (usually about 26
o
C or above)
An unstable atmosphere for convection (cools fast enough with height)
Sufficient moisture in the atmosphere, especially in the mid-level
troposphere
Generally a minimum distance of at least 300 miles (480 km) from the
equator (sufficient Coriolis Force)
A pre-existing near-surface disturbance or low pressure area (to start
the spin)
Low values of vertical wind shear between the surface and the upper
troposphere (small change in wind speed / direction with height).
warm sea surface

water vapor rises and cools

water vapor condenses into a liquid
(clouds) and releases heat

The heat warms the atmosphere and
make the air lighter, warmed air
continues to rise into the atmosphere.

With more air moves in and rise, the
positive feedback creates strong
winds in the storm.

The Energy Source of Tropical Cyclones
(Source : NOAA, NWS
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/tc.htm)

Structure of Tropical Cyclones
(Source : NOAA, NWS
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/tc.htm)

Air spirals in toward the center in a counter-clockwise pattern (in the northern
hemisphere), and out the top in the opposite direction.

In the very center of the storm, air sinks, forming an "eye" that is mostly cloud-
free with relatively low wind speed.
Super Typhoon Zeb (1998)
The image was originally captured by the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS-5) of Japan
Meteorological Agency (JMA).
Outflow Cirrus
Spiral Rain Band
Eye
Eye wall
Wind speed record of Waglan Island during the direct hit of Typhoon York
over Hong Kong on 16 September 1999. Notice the dramatic fall and rise in
wind strength during the passage of the eye of York.
Radius Height Cross Section
Tangential Wind Field
Positive values are cyclonic (or counter-clockwise)
Negative values are anticyclonic (or clockwise)
(Source : Lecture notes of M. D. Eastin
http://clas-pages.uncc.edu/matt-eastin/files/2013/08/METR4320-TC-
structure.ppt)
Maximum is near the surface in the eyewall
Significantly lower wind speed in the eye

Structure of Tropical Cyclones
Uncorrected record of barometric pressure (mean sea level) at the Hong Kong
Observatory during the passage of Typhoon Wanda on 1st September 1962.
Structure of Tropical Cyclones
Minimum pressure in the center of the storm
Tropical Cyclones Intensity and classification
(based on Hong Kong Observatory classification)

Max 10-min mean wind near the centre

Tropical Depression up to 62 km/h

Tropical Storm 63 to 87 km/h

Severe Tropical Storm 88 to 117 km/h

Typhoon 118 to 149 km/h

Severe Typhoon 150 to 184 km/h

Super Typhoon >=185 km/h

Classification of Tropical Cyclones of Different Warning Centers
Maximum Sustained Wind
Speed at the centre of the
tropical cyclones
Hong Kong
(10-minute average)
Mainland China
(2-minute average)
Japan
(10-minute average)
US Pacific
(1-minute average)
US Atlantic
(1-minute average)
kts km/h
< 34 < 63 Tropical Depression (TD) Tropical Depression Tropical Depression Tropical Depression Tropical Depression
34 47 63 87 Tropical Storm (TS) Tropical Storm Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm Tropical Storm
48 63 88 117 Severe Tropical Storm (STS) Severe Tropical Storm Severe Tropical Storm
64 80 118 149
Typhoon (T) Typhoon Typhoon :

64 84 kts


--------------------------------------


Very Strong Typhoon
85 104 kts

--------------------------------------
Violent Typhoon
>=105 kts
Typhoon


64-129kt









--------------------------------------
Super Typhoon: >= 130 kt
Hurricane categories

1: 64 82 kts

--------------------------------------

2: 83 95 kts

--------------------------------------

3: 96 113 kts

--------------------------------------
4: 114 135 kts
-------------------------------------
5: >135 kts
81 99 150 184
Severe Typhoon (ST) Severe Typhoon
>=100 >=185 Super Typhoon (SuperT) Super Typhoon







Tropical cyclone Movement
Left on its own, a tropical cyclone in the Northern Hemisphere has an inertial
tendency to drift towards the northwest.

Environmental current steers the tropical cyclone similar to the movement of a
cork within the main flow of a stream or river.

Over the western North Pacific, tropical cyclones use to travel along the southern or
southwestern flank of the subtropical ridge to the northwest.

In gist, a three body problem between the tropical cyclone, the subtropical ridge,
and the westerly trough (upper air).







Some common tracks of Tropical Cyclones in
western North Pacific and South China Sea
Tropical cyclone basins
(Source: Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological laboratory, NOAA)
1. North Atlantic
2. Eastern North Pacific
3. Western North Pacific
4. Northern Indian Ocean
5. Southwestern Indian Ocean
6. Southeastern Indian Ocean
7. Southwestern Pacific
Major Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers
in the western North Pacific

China Meteorological Administration, Beijing

Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong

Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Hawaii

Tokyo Typhoon Centre of the Japanese Meteorological
Agency (WMO Regional Specialized Meteorological Center )

Naming of Tropical Cyclones in the western North Pacific

Since WWII, the US military weather forecasters have named tropical
cyclones forming in the western North Pacific. The names used were
almost exclusively English feminine names through 1978 (Girl friend,
spouse, etc.).

But beginning in 1979 men's names were used with women's names in
an alternating manner.

Starting from 1 January 2000, tropical cyclones in the western North
Pacific are named from a new list of names contributed by 14 members of
the World Meteorological Organization's Typhoon Committee (10 x14 =140
names).

The new names will be allotted to tropical cyclones reaching tropical
storm strength by the Tokyo Typhoon Centre of the Japanese
Meteorological Agency (WMO RSMC).
Tropical Cyclone Names Contributed by the Hong Kong

Kai-tak
Shanshan
Man-yi
Lingling
Fung-wong
Dolphin
Choi-wan
Lionrock
Ma-on
Banyan

http://www.weather.gov.hk/informtc/sound/tcname2013e.htm
Retired Tropical Cyclone Names in the western North Pacific (up to 2010)
A total of 31 typhoons (in the western North Pacific Ocean) have been removed from the list
from 1947 to 2010, most of which retired after 2000.
(Source : Lei et al., 2012 : Summary of Retired Typhoon within the Western
North Pacific Ocean[J]. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review1(1): 23-32.)
Tropical cyclone frequency in western North Pacific
The most active basin with about 30 tropical cyclones each year
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
A
v
e
r
a
g
e

N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

T
r
o
p
i
c
a
l

C
y
c
l
o
n
e
s
(1971-2000 average, based on HKO data)
Average No. of Tropical Cyclone Affecting Hong Kong (Signal Issued)
from 1971 to 2000
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
N
o
.

o
f

T
r
o
p
i
c
a
l

C
y
c
l
o
n
e
Tropical cyclones affecting Hong Kong
About 5 tropical cyclones affecting Hong Kong each year
Impacts of tropical cyclones on Hong Kong

High winds (strong, gales, storm force, hurricane force winds)

Heavy rain

Swell and rough Seas

Storm surge

Very hot weather with afternoon or evening thunderstorms
(due to continental flow)

Haze and high API situation (subsidence ahead of the storm,
low level inversion)

Storm Surge
strong winds piling up the sea
water near the coast
low atmospheric pressure of the
tropical cyclone uplifts the sea
surface on its path
Storm Surge of Hurricane
Sandy in Oct 2012
Ocean surface winds for Hurricane Sandy
observed at 9:00 p.m. PDT Oct. 28 (12:00
a.m. EDT Oct. 29) by the OSCAT radar
scatterometer on the Indian Space Research
Organization's (ISRO) OceanSat-2 satellite.
Colors indicate wind speed and arrows
indicate direction. The image shows the large
extent of high winds associated with this
system. (Source : ISRO/NASA/JPL-Caltech)
(Source : NRL, http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi)
Storm Surge Prediction and Observations
(Source : NOAA/NOS
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu.shtml?bdate=20121028&edat
e=20121030&datum=6&unit=1&shift=d&stn=8518750+The+Battery%2C+
NY&type=Tide+Data&format=View+Plot)
(Source : http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/211343.shtml?gm_psurge)
Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Probabilities
Sandy-battered New York & New Jersey
(Source : Daily Mail, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2226762/Hurricane-Sandy-Terrifying-picture-taken-space-shows-devastation-wreaked-New-Jerseys-shores.html )
Sea water floods the Ground Zero construction site, Oct. 29,
2012, in New York. (Source : AP Photo/ John Minchillo)

Damage to the South Ferry station of the No. 1 subway
line, in lower Manhattan (Patrick Cashin, MTA / AP Photo )
Annual mean sea level rise in Battery Park, New York
from Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) tide gauge
data.
On 24 September 2008, storm surge due
to Typhoon Hagupit caused a sea level
rise of about 1.4 m above normal.
Some houses near the shore in Cheung Chau were damaged
Storm Surge of Typhoon Hagupit in 2008
(courtesy of TVB)
Flooding in Tai O after Typhoon Hagupit
(September 2008)
Haze and Reduced Visibility
Due to accumulation of local and regional suspended particulates and
photochemical effects

Common when tropical cyclone approaching -
Conceptual model of the occurrence of reduced visibility in Hong Kong due to a tropical cyclone near Taiwan.

High temperatures on 21 September 2013
Affected by the subsiding continental airstream
associated with the outer circulation of super
typhoon Usagi, the weather in HK became dry
and very hot on 20 and 21 September.

The temperatures at the Hong Kong
Observatory rose to a maximum of 34.7
o
C on
the afternoon of 21 September, the highest
record for September since 1969.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Mst13yIy38
High winds, squally heavy rain and storm surge
Typhoon Danas hitting Okinawa Japan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTvkrLESrwU

Storm Surge
(Just watch YouTube, dont risk your life !)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06AJkSD0HiU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Kou0HBpX4A
Hurricane Katrina Historic Storm Surge
2. Interactions and Associated phenomena

Fujirawa effect
Tropical cyclone and monsoon
Extra-tropical transition
Double Eye Walls (Eyewall replacement cycles)
Fujiwhara effect

When tropical cyclones come near each other (usually within 1000 km),
their circulations can affect each other, causing them to rotate against each
other in a counter-clockwise direction.

The phenomenon is known as the Fujiwhara effect, named after Dr.
Sakuhei Fujiwhara (1884-1950) who described it in a 1921 paper about the
motion of vortices in water. He later became the director of the Japan
Meteorological Agency in 1941.
The interaction of two tropical cyclones
Two tropical cyclones situation

October 2009

The track of Parma was affected by Super Typhoon Melor over the western North
Pacific. It lingered near northern Luzon for four days before moving west-
northwestwards across the northern part of the South China Sea.
Parma
Melor
(Source : NASA image courtesy the MODIS Rapid Response
Team at NASA GSFC.)
6 October 2009
[The satellite imagery was originally captured by Multi-functional
Transport Satellite-2 (MTSAT-2) of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA).]
Three tropical cyclone situation

August 2010

Three tropical cyclones, Lionrock, Namtheun and Kompasu interacting with each
other
8 p.m. on 31 August 2010
2012 Tembin & Bolaven Satellite Images - Fujiwhara Effect
( Source : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l82K0bVmibQ )



Tropical Cyclone
Northeast Monsoon
Tropical Cyclone + Northeast Monsoon
Tropical Cyclone and Northeast Monsoon
Both Tropical Storm Parma and the northeast monsoon affecting Hong Kong on 12
October 2009

Under the combined effect of the northeast monsoon and Parma, Hong Kong was
windy from 11 to 14 October.
Dry air intrusion
Northeast monsoon - Dry and cold air mass
Tropical Storm Parma and the northeast monsoon in October 2009
(Source : NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html)
Interact with the upper air westerlies associated with the surface northeast monsoon
Abrupt change in track or
Weaken quickly due to vertical wind shear increase
upper air westerlies
(Source : Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan)
An extra-tropical cyclone is a low
pressure system that primarily gets its
energy from the temperature
difference in the horizontal direction
across the cyclone (known as
temperature gradient in meteorology) .

Extra-tropical cyclones have frontal
features, i.e. they are associated with
cold fronts, warm fronts, and occluded
fronts. Structurally, extra-tropical
cyclones are "cold-core (i.e. the
center is colder than the surroundings
at the same height).

Tropical cyclone & Extra-tropical cyclone
Tropical cyclones typically have little
temperature differences across the
storm. Their energy are derived
from the release of heat due to
cloud/rain formation from the warm
moist air of the tropics.

Tropical cyclones are "warm-core".

A tropical cyclone will transform into an
extra-tropical cyclone as it recurves
poleward.
While most typhoons have a single eye
wall, many mature typhoons develop the
double-eye-walled structure.

When typhoons show a double eye-walled
structure, they are often in the process of
undergoing a "eye wall replacement cycle"
where a new eye wall develops and
replaces an existing one.

The double-eye-walled may last for a day
or two.

Double-eye-walled
Double-eye-walled structure is an intermediate phase of intensification, it can
happen in typhoon to super typhoon stages. As such, it does not imply that a
double eye walled typhoon is the strongest typhoon !
3. Monitoring and Forecasting Tropical
Cyclones

Surface and Upper Air Observations
Aircraft Reconnaissance
Satellite images (Dvorak Analysis)
Radar images
Kidney and Beach Ball
Numerical Weather Predictions

Surface and Upper Air Observations

Land stations
Ship reports
Upper air soundings
Locating tropical cyclone using the inflow angle method

Aircraft Reconnaissance
Looking straight up from inside the eye of Super typhoon Forrest (1983) from a
hurricane hunter reconnaissance aircraft.
(Source Photo courtesy of Scott A. Dommin. www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/)
A NOAA WP-3 Orion turboprop Hurricane Hunter aircraft. (Photo credit: NOAA)
(Source : NASA
http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/gsfc/earth/pictures/c
amex4/dropsonde.gif)
(Source : Randy Redman of the US Air Force)
Aircraft reconnaissance in the western
North Pacific discontinued since in 1987
Dropsonde Observation for Typhoon Surveillance near the TAiwan Region"
(DOTSTAR)

a project of Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan
University
perform GPS dropwindsonde airborne observation of typhoons near
Taiwan
The meteorological measuring system installed on the fixed-wing
aircraft, with the inset showing the air data probe
Using aircraft to collect data of tropical cyclones in Hong Kong

The Observatory collaborates with the Government Flying Service (GFS) to use its fixed-wing
aircraft for collecting meteorological data in the vicinity of Hong Kong. On 22 June when
Tropical Storm Haima affected the northern part of the South China Sea, for the first time the
fixed-wing aircraft flew near the centre of the storm, collecting unique data including wind and
pressure up to 20 readings per second. Such data are helpful in determining the strength of the
storm and supporting decision-making in the provision of public weather service.
Meteorological Satellites
35,800 km
S
N
Geostationary satellites
Polar-orbiting satellites
Two major types of meteorological satellites characterized by their orbits:

Satellite Images

Infra-red images show the temperatures of the observed objects (e.g.
clouds). Such "night vision" capability makes them useful round the clock.
In general, the higher the top of the clouds, the lower its temperature and
the brighter it will appear in the image.

Visible images liken the black-and-white photos captured from space. They
are available in day time only. The resolution of visible images is higher
than those of infra-red images. This enables visible images to show more
detailed structure of clouds.



Visible
Infrared
Water vapour
- Geostationary satellites
Dvorak enhancement
used for Tropical Classifications with the Dvorak Technique
Visible image IR image
IR with rainbow color enhancement image
(Source : NOAA, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/ )
Super Typhoon HAIYAN (2013)
This visible image of Super Typhoon Sanba was captured by the MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite
on Sept. 13, 2012 at 0450 UTC (12:50 a.m. EDT). (Credit: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team)
Polar Orbiting Satellite Images
(Source : NASA, http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2012/h2012_Sanba.html)
Passive microwave imagery

enable the user to "see through" non-raining clouds and view rainbands,
eyewalls and eyes even when obscured by upper-level clouds that hinder
the user of visible and IR imagery.

data is currently only available on polar orbiter platforms that fly over
tropical cyclones at most several times/day/satellite.

- Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)
- Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI)
- Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-B)
- Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E)
- The WindSat Passive Microwave Radiometer

(Reference : NOAA, http://mirs.nesdis.noaa.gov/index.php)
Typhoon Nanmadol, 26 Aug 2011
Infrared Visible
Microwave
(TRMM)
(source : NRL NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division (Code 7500) TC_PAGES Page
Super Cyclone Phailin (2013)
http://mirs.nesdis.noaa.gov/amsub.php
AMSU-B (Microwave image)
Visible Image
NASA's TRMM satelilte data was used to create this 3-D view of Typhoon Sanba on September
14, 2012, at 0541 UTC. The inner eye wall and older eye are both shown to extend to heights
above 13km (~8.8 miles). (Credit: SSAI/NASA, Hal Pierce)
(Source : NASA, http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2012/h2012_Sanba.html)
Dvorak Analysis

A technique developed by Vernon Dvorak in 1970s to estimate tropical cyclone intensity
based on infrared satellite images
Commonly used by warning centers in assessing tropical cyclone intensity
Utilizes a special satellite image look-up table to assist the assessment
Main assessment parameters include, pattern, shear off distance, cloud top temperature,
eye temperature, etc.
(source : NRL NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology
Division (Code 7500) TC_PAGES Page
(Source :http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique#cite_note-2)
(Reference : Dvorak Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Technique http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/06velden.pdf)
Note : conversion factor of 1 min mean wind to 10-min mean wind speed is about 0.93
Doppler weather radar
Doppler weather radar is capable of
measuring the approach (or departing) speed
of raindrops

Faster the raindrops move towards the radar,
the higher will be the frequency of the
microwave reflected from raindrops.

The raindrops' approach speed is a good
estimation of the winds which carry the
raindrops.
Semicircle Effect

In the Northern Hemisphere, winds surrounding a tropical cyclone blow in an
anticlockwise direction.

winds on the right semicircle will be in the same direction of the storm's translation
motion while winds over the left semicircle will be in the opposite direction.

winds on the right semicircle are usually stronger than those on the left semicircle,
which are thus termed the dangerous semicircle and navigable semicircle
respectively.

subtropical ridge usually stays on the northeastern side of a tropical cyclone,
resulting in a tighter pressure gradient and thus stronger winds in between them
The 30%, 50% and 70% probability for strong
winds at Waglan brought by typhoons.
Diagram showing the prevailing wind direction at
Waglan when a tropical cyclone is located in a
particular sector
Kidney and beach ball
Kidney - an area on the map where it is probable that windy conditions will
affect a location in Hong Kong once a tropical cyclone comes within that area.

Beach Ball - to determine the prevailing wind direction in Hong Kong based on
the tropical cyclone location relative to Hong Kong
A narrow escape from Super Typhoon Usagi 2013
A small change in the forecast track of Usagi (yellow and blue arrows) may result in vastly
different effects on Hong Kong's weather.

Yellow arrow Usagi makes landfall to the east of Hong Kong, Usagi will weaken on her
way to Hong Kong. Northerly winds blocked by terrain to the north effect, the wind strength
over Hong Kong will be relatively lower.

Blue arrow Usagi maintains strength on her way to Hong Kong. HK will be more prone to
the effect of southeasterly winds and storm surge (together with high tide near the Mid-
Autumn Festival).
Actual - Usagi passed about 80 kilometres to the north of Hong Kong with a storm surge of
about 0.5 to 1 metre.

What would happen then if Usagi took on a track of about 100 kilometres southward when it
was near Hong Kong (red line) with the time of occurrence of storm surge matching with that of
the astronomical high tide?

Computer storm surge simulated results showed that storm surge of about 1.7 metres would
occur at Quarry Bay and added up with the astronomical high tide (2.2 metres), resulting in a
sea level of nearly 4 metres, rather close to that caused by Wanda in 1962.
Modern days
Numerical Weather Prediction
NWP = Using physical equations to simulate the evolution
of the atmospheric motions
Methods:
integration of the evolution equations, based on the initial and
boundary conditions
Applicable Scale:
mesoscale (thunderstorm) to synoptic scale (frontal system)
Valid time:
1 - 48 hr (short-range)
24 - 196 hr (medium range)
> 10days (long-range)
Numerical Weather Predictions
Equations
+
Conceptual Models
+
High Performance Computers
Numerical Weather Predictions
Different Models give Different Forecast Tracks !
Ensemble Forecasts Strike Probability
4. Tropical Cyclone Warning History
The changes of tropical cyclone warning system of Hong Kong over the last
century

Starting from 1884, a system of drum, ball and cone was employed. Typhoon gun was
used to warn imminent tropical cyclone gale force winds

In 1907, explosive bombs replaced the typhoon gun. The last typhoon boom was
exploded in 1937.

In 1917, the first numbered signal system from 1 to 7. Numbers 2 to 5 signifying gale
force winds expected from the four quadrants, namely N, S, E and W.

In 1931, the signals from 1 to 10 with signals 2 and 3 signifying strong winds from SW
and SE respectively, signal 4 being a non-local signal, signals 5 to 8 signifying gales
from the four quadrants, namely NW, SW, NE ad SE, signal 9 signifying increasing
gales and signal 10 indicating the threat of hurricane force winds. Signals 2, 3 and 4
were used intermittently afterwards and were discontinued in the late 1930s.

In 1956, the No. 3 Strong Wind Signal was introduced between the No. 1 Stand-by
Signal and the gale signals.

Starting from 1 January 1973, signals 5 to 8 were replaced by 8 NW, 8 SW, 8 NE and 8
SE respectively.
11/21/2013


Observatory in action



Storm warning signals












1890 Red and Black signals

11/21/2013


1897

from North or East



from South or West







1904

















































Typhoon Gun on the Peak

Time ball tower and typhoon mast 1885 to 1907
Tsimshatsui Marine Police Base
Time ball tower on Signal Hill 1908 to 1933
Signal stations in Hong Kong

The number of signal stations in Hong Kong
peaked at 42 in the 1960s (Figure 3).

As the electronic media became popular, these
stations were progressively closed, beginning
in the late 1970s. The last signal station in
Hong Kong, on the island of Cheung Chau, was
decommissioned on 1 January 2002 marking
the end of the era of the hoisting of tropical
cyclone warning signals.

5. Devastating Storms
Tracks of the tropical cyclones that necessitated the issuance of the Hurricane
Signal No. 10 in Hong Kong since 1946



1962
Wanda:
Formed in western North Pacific. First became a severe typhoon over
South China Sea about 390 km ESE of HK (20.6N 117.5E), then
a super typhoon for a short while about 160 km ESE of HK (21.7N
115.6E). Weakened to a severe typhoon about 30 km SSE of HK
(22.1N 114.3E).
This table shows the average wind speed in knots as recorded (uncorrected) at the Observatory during each of the three hours before and the
four hours after the maximum wind

Date
AUG. 17
1936
SEPT. 2
1937
GLORIA
SEPT. 22
1957
MARY
JUNE 9
1960
ALICE
MAY 19
1961
WANDA
SEPT. 1
1962
Mean hourly wind speed
3 hrs. before
Max.
wind
37 20 44 42 34 36
2 hrs. before 46 30 49 44 38 45
1 hr. before 54 58 51 44 42 54
Maximum hourly mean
wind
62 59 59 50 43 68
1 hr. after
Max. wind
56 58 56 44 12 48
2 hrs. after 52 43 46 36 14 40
3 hrs. after 29 34 37 37 39 36
4 hrs. after 24 29 36 45 42 33
Maximum gust (knots) 115 130* 101 103 89 140
Instantaneous Minimum
Pressure (mb.)
979.3 958.3 984.3 973.8 981.1 953.2
Intensity of the previous tropical cyclones which necessitated the issuance of
the No. 10 Signal
Maximum gusts and minimum mean sea level pressure recorded in Hong Kong
during the passage of Vicente and the previous tropical cyclones that necessitated
the issuance of the No. 10 Signal in Hong Kong
Casualties caused by Typhoons with No. 10 or equivalent (1884-2002)
(SOURCE : Weathering the Storm by P.Y. Ho, 2003)
In Hong Kong, the Tolo Harbour over the northeast is more susceptible to high storm
surges than the Victoria Harbour

For the Typhoon of 1937, the villages along the coast of Tolo Harbour were severely
flooded by the storm surge of the typhoon. Thousands of lives were lost, mostly
fishermen who were living in their boats. The high water mark in the area left by the
typhoon was estimated to be about 6 metres above CD, which meant a surge of about 3.8
metres.
TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS FOR THE TOP 20 STORM SURGE
RECORDS AT QUARRY BAY/NORTH POINT TIDE GAUGE STATION
(1947-2006)
18 Sept 1906
1-2 Sept 1937
Typhoon Wanda, Sept 1962
7-10 September 1983, Typhoon Ellen caused great destructions to fishing boats
and sea vessels
(Courtesy : Hong Kong Museum of History)
Typhoon MORAKOT ( ) August 2009
Typhoon MORAKOT
Windward slope

Heavy rain of Morakot
Intense rainband
over the southern
semi-circle
Slow movement
Terrain effect (2000-
3000m height)
Radar image of Typhoon Morakot at 09 UTC on 8 August 2009
Source : Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan
Typhoon MORAKOT ( ) August 2009
Over 1000 mm in many areas
Some places with near 3000mm rainfall
The "Geng-Zi" typhoon disaster in 1900 ()
- The Deadly Autumnal Storm
Re-analysis of mean sea level pressure and 10-min Wind on 9 November 1900.
(Source : NOAA 20th Century "Reanalysis")
As per the reports from the Governor and newspapers, the Observatory had given
due notice of this impending typhoon to the public and the inclement weather also
fully validated the Observatorys prediction. Regrettably, the public gave less
attention to the warnings and little precautions were taken as many of them
disbelieved that such a violent storm would affect the territory in this season.
The Geng-Zi Typhoon caused extensive damages and heavy casualties to the territory.
Numerous sampans and boats were sunk or even smashed to matchwood by the raging waves.
Ten steam-launches and over 110 junks were also sunk and the harbour was full of wreckage.
Many trees were damaged or uprooted. Lamp posts and telephone posts were bent at all angles
by the furious winds. Over 200 lives were lost in these few fatal hours.
Damages and casualties
(Source : the Illustrated London News on 22 December 1900)
Estimate the possible hourly positions as well as the pressure pattern of the
typhoon during its passage over Hong Kong
(Prepared by Mr K.Y. Kong, Weather Prediction Center NOAA)
A closer look of the Geng-Zi Typhoon
Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013)
Dvorak Analysis with T-number reaching 7.5-8.0
One of the most intense super typhoons since satellite era
May be the most intense super typhoon during landfall (subject to further analysis)
(Source : ABC News http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/specials/typhoon-haiyan-photos-before-after/)
Before After
Tacloban City, the Philippines
Inter-annual and inter-decadal variations
Climate change and TC activities
Long term variation of Tropical Cyclones
in the western North Pacific and the
South China Sea
(a) storms of tropical storm
intensity and above
Annual storm counts based on the categories assigned according to reported
maximum sustained winds converted into 10-min mean
(b) storms of typhoon intensity
Source : Lee et al., Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Basin. Part I: Past Observations. Tropical Cyclone
Research and Review, 2012, 1(2): 213-230
In gist, these oscillations affect the SST and/or atmospheric circulation
over the WNP, subsequently affect the steering flow, favorable TC
genesis frequency, TC formation locations, etc.

There are many factors modulating the inter-annual and inter-decadal
TC activities in the WNP and the SCS

For examples :

ENSO
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)
East Indian Ocean SST

.
Spectral Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Activities over the western North Pacific
MTM spectrum of the annual number of tropical cyclones
in the western North Pacific.
2.4 year peak Quasi-Biennial
Oscillation (QBO)

3-4 year peak ENSO

18 year peak Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO)
(Source : Yeung, K.H., M.C. Wu, W.L. Chang and Y.K. Leung, 2005, Long-term Change in Tropical Cyclone Activity in the
Western North Pacific. Presented in the Scientific Assembly of International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric
Science (IAMAS) 2005, Beijing, China, 2-11 August. Hong Kong Observatory Reprint No. 601.)
Taking the ENSO as an example :
Genesis position shift to
the east

Sub-tropical ridge split into
two
Genesis position shift to the
west

Sub-tropical ridge continuous
Composite circulation in the late season at 850 and 500 hPa for (top) El Nino, (middle) neutral, and (bottom) La Nina years.
Mean tropical cyclone genesis location map for El Nino and La Nina years
STY activity could be related to the ENSO events. Generally speaking, there were more
STYs in El Nio years than in La Nia years. Possible causes :
In El Nio years, affected by SST pattern, monsoon trough and weak vertical wind shear, the
formation locations of the TCs drifted eastward, so they could be in a weak vertical shear
environment during their movements. As a result, there were more STYs in El Nio years,
and less in La Nia years.
ENSO and Super Typhoon Activities
Weak vertical wind shear, positive
low-level vortex and longer developing
time are all advantageous to TC
intensity in El Nio years.
(Source : Huang and Xu, 2010 : Super Typhoon Activity over the Western North Pacific and Its Relationship with ENSO, J. Ocean Univ. China (Oceanic
and Coastal Sea Research) 9 (2): 123-128.)
Frequencies and positions of TC formation during the typhoon season for (a) El Nino
and (b) La Nina years. The numbers in the top-right corner indicate the TS to TY and
STY genesis frequencies in the west and east WNP.
(Source : Zhan et al., 2011: Contributions of ENSO and East Indian Ocean SSTA to the Interannual variability of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone
Frequency. J. Climate, 24, 509-521. doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3808.1.)
ENSO and Super Typhoon Activities
Climate Change and Tropical Cyclone Activities in the WNP
Analysis of available TC data from different databases shows that most of
the datasets depict a decreasing trend, and some statistically significant, in
the annual number of TCs and typhoons in the WNP.

For TC intensity, differences in TC datasets for the WNP do not permit a
convincing detection of a long term trend in this basin.

Climate model projections of future TC activity in the WNP suggest a
noticeable decrease in the frequency is likely in the 21st century.

Most of the the model simulations also report an increase in the number of
intense TCs and the TC rainfall rate in the WNP in a warmer climate.

The possible influence of climate change on the shift of TC track and
formation location over the WNP is also noted in some studies utilizing
observational analysis and model simulations.
Linear trends in the June-October mean frequency of TC occurrence and in the TC
motion vectors. The areas with confidence level exceeding 95% for the TC occurrence
changes are shaded. The contour interval is 0.3 year
-1
and the unit of the vectors is
ms
-1
. the thick solid lines with arrows denote the prevailing typhoon tracks.
(Source : Wu, L., B. Wang, and S. Geng, 2005: Growing typhoon influence on east Asia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18703, doi:10.1029/2005GL022937.)
Anomaly in annual mean TC occurrence frequency for 2001-2010. Superimposed is the 500 hPa
steering flow anomaly averaged over May-November (unit of ms
-1
). Anomalies are with reference
to the 1961-90 mean. The TC occurrence frequency is calculated based on the HKO TC dataset
and the 500 hPa anomalous flow is drawn from NCEP-NCAR re-analysis 1 data.
Number of TCs (including TDs, blue) and typhoons (red) landfalling in China (1949-2010). The
solid, thick and dashed lines represent the annual number, 5-year running mean and linear
trend respectively. trends are estimated in the period of 1949-2010.
Source : Lee et al., Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Basin. Part I: Past Observations. Tropical Cyclone
Research and Review, 2012, 1(2): 213-230
Possible impacts of climate change on TC tracks
JJASO typhoon frequency climatology averaged over the period of 19702006. The contour interval
(CI) is 0.5 per season (JJASO) per grid box (2.58 3 2.58). The bold arrows represent the majority of
typhoon paths in the western North PacificEast Asian region. The box represents the area in the
vicinity of Taiwan.
(Source : Tu, Jien-Yi, Chia Chou, Pao-Shin Chu, 2009: The Abrupt Shift of Typhoon Activity in the Vicinity of Taiwan and Its Association with Western North
PacificEast Asian Climate Change. J. Climate, 22, 36173628.)
Time series of seasonal (JJASO) typhoon numbers passing the vicinity of Taiwan from 1970 to 2006. (b) The conditional posterior
probability mass function of change points is plotted as a function of time. (c) Posterior density function of seasonal typhoon rate
before (dashed line) and after (solid) the shift, with the changepoint year being set in 2000. (d) JuneOctober typhoon frequency
differences for the period of 200006 minus the period of 197099
(Source : Tu, Jien-Yi, Chia Chou, Pao-Shin Chu, 2009: The Abrupt Shift of Typhoon Activity in the Vicinity of Taiwan and Its Association with Western North
PacificEast Asian Climate Change. J. Climate, 22, 36173628.)
Time series of (a) the number of landfall TCs over Korea and Japan, (b) the number of TC
genesis events over the WNP, and (c) the ratio of number of landfall TCs over Korea and
Japan to the number of TC genesis events over the WNP. The gray and black lines indicate
the raw and lowpass filtered values, respectively
(Source : Park, D.S.R., C.H. Ho, J.H. Kim and H.S. Kim, 2011: Strong landfall typhoons in Korea and Japan in a recent decade, J.
Geophys. Res., 116, D07105, doi:10.1029/2010JD014801.)
Tropical cyclones affecting Hong Kong

Modulated by El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal
Oscillation PDO, there are strong inter-annual and inter-decadal
variations in the tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea.

Analysis of the Hong Kong Observatory tropical cyclone records since
1961 shows that there is a long term decreasing trend in the number of
tropical cyclones entering the 500 km range of Hong Kong, but the trend
is not statistically significant at 5% level.

There is no significant trend in the number of tropical cyclones landing
over the south China coast within 300 km of Hong Kong.
Inter-annual and inter-decadal variations of TC activity in SCS

El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Nio - there are fewer TCs developed in April and May and the genesis positions are
usually located further east over the western North Pacific compared to normal condition.
Hence, TCs are unlikely to affect the territory before June.

La Nia - TCs in August-October are likely driven by an anomalous steering flow into the
South China Sea and hence more tropical cyclones are likely to affect Hong Kong
compared to normal condition.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
PDO switches between warm and cold phases could affect the average position and
strength of the subtropical ridge over the WNP and therefore influence the TC frequency
and genesis position.

PDO+ENSO
Overall speaking, TC activity in the SCS during El Nio and warm phase of PDO tend to be
below normal, while above-normal TC activity could be found during La Nia and cold
phase of PDO

East Indian Ocean (EIO) Sea Surface Temperature anomaly (SSTA)
Warm (cold) EIO SSTA suppresses (promotes) TC genesis over the WNP. There is a
significant negative correlation between the TC genesis frequency to the east of 120
o
E and
EIO SSTA.

Annual number of tropical cyclones come within 500 km range of Hong Kong
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Year
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

t
r
o
p
i
c
a
l

c
y
c
l
o
n
e
s

5-year Running Mean

Linear Trend
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Year
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

t
r
o
p
i
c
a
l

c
y
c
l
o
n
e
s

5-year Running Mean

Linear Trend
Annual number of tropical cyclone (including tropical depressions) landing over
the south China coast within 300 km of Hong Kong from 1961-2010
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
2
4
6
8
1
0
Annual number of TS affecting within 500km range of HK
Year
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

T
S
Formed_TS
Entered_TS
Trend (per decade) P-value
Total TS -0.2118 0.2066
TS Formed in SCS 0.02545 0.7369
TS Entered from WNP -0.2372 0.1682
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Year
W
i
n
d

s
p
e
e
d

(
m
/
s
)
10 minute mean wind
5 year running mean (10 min wind)
Gust
5 year running mean (Gust)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Year
W
i
n
d

s
p
e
e
d

(
m
/
s
)
10 minute mean wind 5 year running mean (10 min wind) Gust 5 year running mean (Gust)
There is no significant trend in the TC-induced high winds in the remote station at Waglan
Island during 1961-2010 but the decreasing trend in the urban station at Kai Tak is statistically
significant. The significant decreasing trend of the high winds in Kai Tak is very likely due to the
dense urban development in Hong Kong over the last few decades
Annual maximum 10 minute mean wind speed and gust brought by
TCs entering 500km range of HK from 1961 to 2010.
at Kai Tak at Waglan Island
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Year
A
n
n
u
a
l

R
a
i
n
f
a
l
l

p
e
r

T
C

(
m
m
)
Annual Rainfall per TC
5 year running mean
0
20
40
60
80
100
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Year
A
n
n
u
a
l

M
a
x
i
m
u
m

H
o
u
r
l
y

R
a
i
n
f
a
l
l

(
m
m
)
Maximum Hourly Rainfall
5 year running mean
Annual rainfall per TC brought by TCs entering
500km range of Hong Kong from 1961 to 2010.
Annual maximum hourly rainfall for TCs entering
500km range of HK from 1961 to 2010.
Thank You