Project KOC Interview Reliability Guide: Document Prepared by

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Project KOC
Interview Reliability Guide

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Index

Seo 1: Interview Data Flowchart ................................................................ 4
1.1 The Reliability Patterns ....................................................................................... 4
1.1.1 Pattern 1 Bath Curve ................................................................................................. 4
1.1.2 Pattern 2 Low Wear Out ............................................................................................ 4
1.1.3 Pattern 3 ....................................................................................................................... 4
1.1.4 Pattern 3 Low Wear Out ............................................................................................ 5
1.1.5 Pattern 5 Random Failure ......................................................................................... 5
1.1.6 Pattern 6 ....................................................................................................................... 5
1.2 Failure Pattern Selection Logic ........................................................................... 6
1.3 Questions ............................................................................................................ 7
1.3.1 Question 1 .................................................................................................................... 7
1.3.2 Question 2 .................................................................................................................... 8
1.3.3 Question 3 .................................................................................................................... 8
1.3.4 Question 4 .................................................................................................................... 8
1.3.5 Question 5 .................................................................................................................... 9
1.3.6 Question 6 .................................................................................................................... 9
1.3.7 Question 7 .................................................................................................................... 9
1.3.8 Question 8 .................................................................................................................... 9
1.3.9 Question 9 .................................................................................................................. 10
1.3.10 Question 10 ............................................................................................................ 10
1.3.11 Comments............................................................................................................... 10
1.4 Estimating the Reliability Parameters ............................................................... 11
1.4.1 Quantity of failures in a specific period time Exponential approach ........................ 11
1.4.2 Two lines was filled up in the table Parameter Experimenter .................................. 11
1.4.3 More than two line filled up in the table Free Form ................................................. 13
1.5 Estimate Logistical Time Parameters ............................................................... 15
1.6 Estimating the Maintainability Parameters ........................................................ 17

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Section 1: INTERVIEW DATA FLOWCHART
During our first visit to KOC we saw they do not have a lot data recorded. Due that, for many equipment we
will need to apply the Interviews Data to be able to come out with the Reliability Distribution.
1.1 THE RELIABILITY PATTERNS
The reliability consultant must relay pattern concepts to technicians helping to characterize failures. First
analyse a failure mode qualitatively, selecting a pattern by the logic shown. Then characterise that mode
numerically, by calculating or estimating parameters governing its pattern.
1.1.1 PATTERN 1 BATH CURVE
The pattern 1 represents equipments with more than one
failure rate behavior. The traditional shape it is the bath
curve where we have the infant mortality, useful life and
wear out. In reality we can have equipments with more
than three different behaviors during his operation life. To be able to determine the bath curve with good
accuracy it is better to analyze real data. For this reason with the interview you will not be able to determine
the bath curve.

1.1.2 PATTERN 2 LOW WEAR OUT
Depicts age related failure resulting from deterioration
processes, but there are still considerable differences in the
behaviour of any two components subject to the same
nominal stresses. Examples are motor winding
deterioration, the choke valve on a sand producing well and erosion of pump impellers. The life of
components can be interpreted as either the recorded average or the point at which there is a marked
increase in failure probability, i.e. at the knee of the curve. Whichever is lower, the average value or the knee
of the curve, is to be used as useful life.
1.1.3 PATTERN 3
The equipment has steadily increasing failure
probability, but no single point where it can be said the
component wears out. Fatigue failures, blockage of filters
and turbine efficiency reduction through dirt accumulation are examples. The slope of the curve is governed
by the Weibull scale parameter h ranging from days to decades. It can be steep or almost flat.

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1.1.4 PATTERN 3 LOW WEAR OUT
Ooooooooo OOO

1.1.5 PATTERN 5 RANDOM FAILURE
This means that the probability that an item will fail in any one
interval of time is the same as in any other. Random failure is
characterised by an exponential survival distribution and
constant probability of failure, so there is no age at which
scheduled rework or scheduled discard is appropriate. These items do not have a useful life as defined
herein.
It is not possible to predict how long any one item conforming to this failure pattern will last, however we
define the MTBF as the point at which 63% of the items have failed. Items with higher MTBFs have lower
probability of failure during any given period.
Many failure modes which display random failure are not preceded by any sort of incipient failure, or if they
are, the incipient failure interval is too short to be useful, so no form of OCM is technically feasible. Ball and
roller bearings and tungsten light bulb elements display this pattern.

1.1.6 PATTERN 6
The probability of failure declines with age to reach a constant
value. It is high when the component is new or has just
been renewed, but then settles. Compression fittings and
many electronic systems, including computers, exhibit this
pattern.

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1.2 FAILURE PATTERN SELECTION LOGIC

Are Failures
Caused by Wear
Elements?
Are Failures a
Combination of
Early Life, Use
Life and Wear
Out?
Are Failures
Caused by
Environmental,
Chemical or
Stress Reaction?
Do a High
Percentage of
Failures Occur at
Reasonable
Consistent Age?
Do Failures Increase
Steadily with Time, but
without a discernable
Sudden Increase?
Are Failures Mostly
Random with Only a
Few Early Life
Failure?
Do More Failures
Occur Shortly After
Instillation Repair or
Overhaul?
Do More Failures
Occur Shortly After
Instillation Repair or
Overhaul?
2%
4%
5%
2%
14%
68%
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
Pattern 1
Pattern 2
Pattern 3
Pattern 4
Pattern 5
Pattern 6

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1.3 QUESTIONS
1.3.1 QUESTION 1

MOST FAILURES CAN BE CATEGORIZED INTO ONE OF A NUMBER OF DISTINCT, IDENTIFIABLE
PATTERNS. TICK THE PATTERN THAT BEST FITS THIS FAILURE MODE.

Selected Pattern Historically Comments

1

2%
It is not
recommended to
determine this
pattern with the
interview.
2

4% -
3

5% -
4

2%
It is not easy to
determine this
pattern with the
interview
5

14% -
6

68% -
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1.3.2 QUESTION 2

Obs.: If you could not fill up the table with any information, try to get the number of failures for a specific
period of time.

Based in the answers you got it, filling up the table above, you can calculate the Reliability distribution for this
equipment. If for some reason you just filled up just two lines you can use the module Parameter
Experimenter on Weibull++to calculate the parameters. If you filled up with tree or more lines, use the Free
Form in Weibull++to calculate the parameters.

In the session XX, you can see how to proceed to perform those analyses.

1.3.3 QUESTION 3
ARE THERE ANY PRIOR WARNINGS BEFORE THE FAILURE OCCURS? TICK ALL THAT
APPLY.
Vibration Noise Leakage Performance
drop
Temperature
change
Emission
changes

Increased
lubricant
consumption
Other
(gi ve details)

1.3.4 QUESTION 4
IF THERE ARE ANY WARNING SIGNS, CAN THEY BE MONITORED? IF SO, HOW?
Human senses

Existing
instrumentation
(portable or fixed)
New instrumentation
(portable or fixed)
Process conditions

Sample anal ysis

To help determine the failure rate, we need to know how reliable the equipment is. Please
evaluate the failure behavior by ticking one box for each frequency.
Period Failure unlikely
(PF=0,01%)
About evens
(PF=50%)
Failure very likely
(PF=90%)
Dont know
1 month
3 months
6 months
2 years
5 years
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1.3.5 QUESTION 5
What is the likely interval between the first sign of degradation to the failure occurring? Tick one
box per frequency.
Period Failure unlikely About evens Failure very likely
Few hours or days
1-2 weeks
1 month
2-3 months
6 months
1 year
2-5 years

1.3.6 QUESTION 6
IF THE FAILURE IS NOT EVIDENT DURING NORMAL OPERATION CAN IT BE FOUND BY
TESTING AND INSPECTION?
Yes No

1.3.7 QUESTION 7
SOME FAILURES CANNOT BE AVOIDED BY MAINTENANCE, E.G. A NAIL IS J UST AS
LIKELY TO PUNCTURE A NEW TIRE OR AN OLD ONE, SO NO OVERHAUL OR
REPLACEMENT IS EFFECTIVE AGAINST FAILURE. WOULD PLANNED REPLACEMENT OR
REFURBISHMENT MAINTENANCE PREVENT OR MITIGATE THIS FAILURE MODE?
Yes No

1.3.8 QUESTION 8
How long does it take to maintenance crew arrive to repair this equipment?
Less than half hour
1 hour
2 hours
3 hours

12 hours

To estimate the distribution for the Time to the Crew Arrive to Repair, see the session XX.

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1.3.9 QUESTION 9
How long does it take to repair this equipment once maintenance has arrived?
(RP = 0,01%)
About evens
(RP = 50%)
Failure very likely
(RP = 90%)
Less than half hour
1 hour
2 hours
3 hours

12 hours

1.3.10 QUESTION 10
If spares are required, how long does it take to get the spare parts?
Less than half hour
1 hour
2 hours
3 hours

12 hours

1.3.11 COMMENTS

DO YOU HAVE ANY COMMENTS REGARDING THE FAILURES OF THIS EQUIPMENT OR HOW
THE MAINTENANCE OF THE EQUIPMENT COULD BE IMPROVED?
Comments

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1.4 ESTIMATING THE RELIABILITY PARAMETERS
Depending of the quantity of information you got it during the interview you can use different
approaches to calculate the Reliability parameters distribution. Follow the three different approaches
depending the information you got during the interview:

1. Quantity of failures in a specific period time Exponential approach
2. Two lines was filled up in the table Parameter Experimenter
3. More than two line filled up in the table Free Form

1.4.1 QUANTITY OF FAILURES IN A SPECIFIC PERIOD TIME EXPONENTIAL APPROACH

For this case, just apply the follow formula and calculate the parameter lambda () for an exponential
distribution.

=Number of Failures / Period of Time

If you have more than one equipment applies the follow formula:

=Number of Failures / Period of Time x Number of Equipments
1.4.2 TWO LINES WAS FILLED UP IN THE TABLE PARAMETER EXPERIMENTER

If you just filled up with two lines in the table (question x) follow the steps presented in the example below:

(PF=0,01%)
About evens
(PF=50%)
Failure very likely
(PF=90%)
Dont know
1 month
3 months X
6 months X
2 years
5 years

Your data, assuming the equipment works 24 hours, 30 days per month:

3 months x 24h x 30 days =2160 hours

Then,

Time
(hours)
Probability of Failure
(%)
2160 0,01
4320 90,00

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Open the module Parameter Experimenter in Weibull++ and choose the tab Two Unreliability
Requirements.

Type the time and the respective probability and calculate the Weibull parameters.

In this example, based in the information you got it from the interview, the behavior of the equipment follows a
Weibull distribution with =7,84 e =3884 hours.

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1.4.3 MORE THAN TWO LINE FILLED UP IN THE TABLE FREE FORM

If you filled up with three or more lines in the table, (question x), follow the steps presented in the example
below:

(PF=0,01%)
About evens
(PF=50%)
Failure very likely
(PF=90%)
Dont know
1 month X
3 months X
6 months X
2 years
5 years

Your data, assuming the equipment works 24 hours, 30 days per month:

1 month x 24h x 30 days = 720 hours

Then,

Time
(hours)
Probability of Failure
(%)
720 0,01
2160 50,00
4320 90,00

Open a Free Form folio in Weibull++

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And type the time and respective probabilities.

And calculate the Weibull parameters.

In this example, based in the information you got it from the interview, the behavior of the equipment follows a
Weibull distribution with =5,83 e =3111,13 hours.

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1.5 ESTIMATE LOGISTICAL TIME PARAMETERS
To estimate the probability distribution for either Time to Crew Arrive to Repair or Time to Get the Spare Part,
follow the example presented next.

2 hours x
6 hours x
12 hours x

Then,

Time
(hours)
Probability
(%)
2 0,01
6 50,00
12 90,00

Open a Free Form folio in Weibull++, type the data and choose the Weibull distribution.

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And calculate the Weibull parameters.

In this example, based in the information you got it from the interview, the probability follows a Weibull
distribution with =6,32 e =8,31 hours.

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1.6 ESTIMATING THE MAINTAINABILITY PARAMETERS
To determine the maintainability distribution follow the example presented next.

How long does it take to repair this equipment once maintenance have arrived?
(RP = 0,01%)
About evens
(RP = 50%)
Failure very likely
(RP = 90%)
Less than half hour
1 hour x
2 hours x
3 hours x

Then,

Time
(hours)
Probability to Repair
(%)
1 0,01
2 50,00
3 90,00

Open a Free Form folio in Weibull++, type the data and choose the Lognormal distribution.

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And calculate the Lognormal parameters.

In this example, based in the information you got it from the interview, the maintainability follows a Lognormal
distribution with =0,7697 e =0,2122.

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