!

"#"$% '()*+#
Overview oI Work to Date
! ! Concentrated human Concentrated human
population: 4 million in population: 4 million in
watershed watershed
! ! 62 Iorested; 62 Iorested;
! ! Water supply Ior NYC Water supply Ior NYC
metropolis metropolis
! ! High diversity (3 High diversity (3
rd rd
most most
diverse place on globe Ior diverse place on globe Ior
turtles) turtles)
! ! A great river runs though it A great river runs though it
! ! Iconic: birthplace oI modern Iconic: birthplace oI modern
environmental movement environmental movement
! ! 2009 Quad 2009 Quad
The Hudson Valley
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Climate change as key threat
Climate change as key threat
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! ! Greatest temperature Greatest temperature
changes in the winter changes in the winter
! ! 50 year study in 50 year study in
Catskills Iound a 3 Catskills Iound a 3
degree change on Slide degree change on Slide
Mountain Mountain
! ! Rivers in Northeastern Rivers in Northeastern
have 20 Iewer days oI have 20 Iewer days oI
ice cover ice cover
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!"#"$% '()*+#
! ! In past three years, region In past three years, region
experienced Iive 100 year experienced Iive 100 year
Ilood events Ilood events
! ! Intense precipitation Intense precipitation
events doubled in last 30 events doubled in last 30
years years
! ! Multiple potential impacts, Multiple potential impacts,
including tidal wetlands, including tidal wetlands,
public drinking water, public drinking water,
additional shoreline additional shoreline
hardening hardening
+()%(*% ,"'(*
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Warmer Water Sea Level Rise Storm Frequency Tidal Surge Changed Seasons
erosion
more variable
stream Ph
drought species shifts
Storm ntensity
(e.g., rainfall)
turbidity
These are consequences of climate change that we won't be able to affect in the short term, but we will be able to influence their effects.
sediment
deposition
Could create
niche gaps in
nat comms
that are likely
to be filled by
invasive
species
Protect low elevation shorelines,
ensure no barriers erected to
obstruct landward migration
Remove toxic
sediments
Protect tributary floodplains and riparian
corridors, and implement construction BMPs to
minimize sediment input into tributaries
Could suffocate
intertidal and shallow
water habitats, or
create disturbed areas
vulnerable to invasive
plants, or allow
intertidal habitats to
rise with higher sea
levels
Manage target
sites to control
arrival of new,
and spread of
established,
invasives
Manage
riparian
corridors to
maintain
shading of
tributaries
algal blooms anchor ice
Could
smother
benthic
species in
tributary
headwaters
permanent
inundation
periodic
flooding
mobilized
toxins
Could
decrease
dissolved
oxygen
[real
issue?]
Could scour away
intertidal and
shallow water
habitats in estuary,
and create
disturbances in
floodplains that are
vulnerable to
invasive plants
Target
species taking
in toxins could
have lower
reproductive
success
groundwater
intrusion
Could cause
water temps in
tributaries to
become too
warm for cold
water species
Could decrease
area available
for submerged
aquatic vege
beds
[real issue?]
Shoreline
hardening or
naturally steep
shorelines will
block landward
migration of
intertidal
habitats
habitat
conversion
shifting salt
front
Could widen
brackish zone
as the salt front
is pushed
farther
downstream
during floods,
but pushes
farther
upstream
during droughts
Scenarios used to understand connections..
Partnership
Partnership
Scenario Planning model
Scenario Planning model
developed by Shell
developed by Shell
Used 20 year time Irame
Used 20 year time Irame
Focus on adaptation, not
Focus on adaptation, not
mitigation
mitigation
Use social science tools and
Use social science tools and
techniques
techniques
Pay attention to the human
Pay attention to the human
response to climate change
response to climate change
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,(#)*+$ -. /0(1)*+
!"#$%& ()*+,
-./)%&.0 1$/".,)&+
(+$+.,23 (+$+,*+
New York State
Water Resources Institute
at Cornell University
2005 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates
Timeline
Timeline
Scenarios
Team
Working
Groups
StakehoIders
T1
W5 W2 W1
T4
T3
T2
First
Workshop
Learning
Final
Workshop
ApriI 2008
ApriI 2009
June - Dec 2008
Creating Applying
2-4
Workshops
W3 W4
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Impact 2030
Average AnnuaI Temp.
2.2degF(NYCDEPA1Bscenario)
Average Winter Temp.
Increase3.3degF(NECIA)
Sea LeveI
2.8" (Doesn't account for recent researchfindingincreased
ratesof ice meIt) (NYCDEPA1Bscenario)
Precipitation
0.6%increase(NYCDEPA1Bscenario)
Snow
Area of snowcover wiII contract. More precipasrain
insteadof snow. Denser sIushier snow. (NECIA) Snow
covered days intheHRVhasdecreasedbyanother 14-16
dayssince 2001(Indicatorsof CIimateChangein
Northeast)
Hurricanes/ Nor'easters
Increasein intensityof strong storms. NodefinitiveIink
between warmingand hurricanefrequency.
(NECIA/NYCDEP)
Extreme RainfaII Events
Increasein winter precip. Maxprecip. In 5 daysincreases
approx. 10%. Onemoreday of rain >2"/yr. Precip. Intensity
(avg amount of rain that faIIsonanygiven rainyday)
increases7-8%. (NECIA)
Heat Waves
Averageof 22days each year over 90 degFand3days
over 100degFannuaIIy. (NECIA)
Drought
LittIechange. CurrentIyshort term(1-3mo.) drought
occurs1every2-3 years. (NECIA)
Timing of Seasons
Onaveragespring(first Ieaf, first bIoom) earIier by 3 days,
first frost 3daysearIier, Iast frost 2daysIater, growing
seasonIonger by5days. Icein Iater, ice-out a fuII week
earIier. Peak streamfIow4 days earIier. (NECIA)
Water Temps
RegionaI seasurfacetemps 2 deg F warmer (NECIA)
A1B Scen
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MuIti-stakehoIder scenario planning
Business/Economic BioIogicaI/SociaI Infrastructure/Service
academic - economics academic - biology education
agriculture academic - climatology emergency responders
business groups from imper. areas academic - modeling engineers
development - county academic - social science health care
development - private art infrastructure - shoreline
development - real estate conservation infrastructure - transportation
development - region env. justice/low-income advocates infrastructure - utilities
development - town faith infrastructure - water supply & treat.
employer - large historic preservation
employer - small philanthropic interests
financial community toxics interests
fishing
insurance Other
marinas & boat clubs Land political leader
planning - county landowners - in flood prone areas steering committee
planning - local landowners - major private z-(not sure)
planning - regional landowners - major public publishing
!"#"$% '()*+# Participant nterests
160 people to date !!!
Built around 2 Key Concepts
!"#"$% '()*+# Scenarios
Y = Character of
preparations
X= Amount of
preparation Less use of naturaI systems
Lots LittIe
More use of naturaI systems
Scenario
#1
Scenario
#2
Scenario
#3
Scenario
#4
! ! Local climate will become Local climate will become
more warm, wet, and wild. more warm, wet, and wild.
! ! Increases in extreme Increases in extreme
weather weather
! ! Sea Sea- -level rise is a serious level rise is a serious
long long- -term threat, but is not term threat, but is not
likely to exceed more than a likely to exceed more than a
Ioot between now and 2030. Ioot between now and 2030.
! ! Capacity to adapt will Capacity to adapt will
depend on local land depend on local land- -use use
planning, new regulations in planning, new regulations in
the Ilood plain, and disaster the Ilood plain, and disaster
planning planning
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Key Findings
Flooding
Spring
2012
Flooding
Fall 2009
Flooding
Spring 2011
Extreme Weather
Scenario 3:
Nature Be Dammed
Extreme
Precipitation Event
and Associated
Area of Flooding
Options Generated by. Options Generated by.
! ! Participants in workshops Participants in workshops
! ! Review oI climate change Review oI climate change
adaptation eIIorts across the adaptation eIIorts across the
country: Keene, NH; Westchester country: Keene, NH; Westchester
County; etc. County; etc.
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80 Response Options Evaluated
80 Response Options Evaluated
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Evaluation of Options across Scenarios
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Awareness
of Global
Climate
Change
Awareness
of Hudson
Valley
impacts
Concern
about
Hudson
Valley
impacts
Awareness
of Global
Climate
Change
Awareness
of Hudson
Valley
impacts
Concern
about
Hudson
Valley
impacts
Prior to Rising Waters Current
Very Low
Low
Moderate
High
Very High
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Preliminary Results: Participant Reactions
Improve community preparedness Ior Improve community preparedness Ior
extreme weather and local climate extreme weather and local climate- -
change threats. change threats.
Prepare communities Ior climate change Prepare communities Ior climate change
by incorporating impacts into land by incorporating impacts into land- -
use decisions use decisions
Guide Iuture development out oI Ilood Guide Iuture development out oI Ilood- -
prone areas prone areas
Improve resilience oI shorelines, natural Improve resilience oI shorelines, natural
systems, and critical inIrastructure to systems, and critical inIrastructure to
impacts oI extreme weather impacts oI extreme weather
Establish climate Establish climate- -change change- -adaptation adaptation
Iunding Iunding
Apply cost Apply cost- -eIIective green technologies eIIective green technologies
and use natural systems to reduce and use natural systems to reduce
vulnerability oI people and properties vulnerability oI people and properties
to Ilooding and heat waves to Ilooding and heat waves
Conserve healthy Iorest, wetland, and Conserve healthy Iorest, wetland, and
river ecosystems as well as river ecosystems as well as
agricultural resources because they agricultural resources because they
are vital to a successIul adaptation to are vital to a successIul adaptation to
climate change. climate change.
Rising Waters: Seven Overarching Recommendations
Establish climate Establish climate- -change change- -
adaptation Iunding adaptation Iunding
" " Expand coalition Expand coalition
supporting the Clean supporting the Clean
Water, Clean Air,& Water, Clean Air,&
Green Jobs Bond Act Green Jobs Bond Act
" " Create a state climate Create a state climate
change adaptation Iund change adaptation Iund
" " Examine existing Iunding Examine existing Iunding
schemes to prioritize schemes to prioritize
climate change adaptation climate change adaptation
activities activities
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!"#"$% '()*+#
! ! Require all state agencies to conduct Ilood audits oI cr Require all state agencies to conduct Ilood audits oI critical itical
inIrastructure such as hospitals, important road crossings, and inIrastructure such as hospitals, important road crossings, and
wastewater treatment plants wastewater treatment plants
! ! IdentiIy and promote sustainable methods Ior shoreline IdentiIy and promote sustainable methods Ior shoreline
erosion control that will secure key inIrastructure while enabli erosion control that will secure key inIrastructure while enabling ng
vital natural communities to exist and migrate landward as sea vital natural communities to exist and migrate landward as sea
level rises level rises
! ! IdentiIy and remove incentives Ior non IdentiIy and remove incentives Ior non- -sustainable sustainable
shoreline management methods, and create incentives Ior shoreline management methods, and create incentives Ior
sustainable practices in shoreline management and erosion sustainable practices in shoreline management and erosion
control control
! ! Share best practices Ior Iish Iriendly habitat option Share best practices Ior Iish Iriendly habitat options s
when shoreline construction/reconstruction is necessary when shoreline construction/reconstruction is necessary
Improve resilience oI shorelines, natural systems, and critical Improve resilience oI shorelines, natural systems, and critical
inIrastructure to impacts oI extreme weather. inIrastructure to impacts oI extreme weather.
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Impacts oI climate change on
Hudson shorelines
Next steps
Next steps
" " Press release Press release this this week; report week; report
released released
" " Five coalitions Five coalitions
Shorelines/Shallows Shorelines/Shallows
Communications/disaster planning Communications/disaster planning
Adaptation Iunding Adaptation Iunding
Floodplain development, including Floodplain development, including
LIDAR mapping LIDAR mapping
Green Technology Green Technology
" " Return to Garrison in 2010 to Return to Garrison in 2010 to
revise plan: perhaps add revise plan: perhaps add
Agriculture component Agriculture component
" " Measure results Measure results
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Reviewed 281 articles on climate Reviewed 281 articles on climate
change and biodiversity change and biodiversity
Need speciIic adaptation Need speciIic adaptation
examples (we have 22 speciIics) examples (we have 22 speciIics)
Adaptation planning process Adaptation planning process
should guide recommendations should guide recommendations
Integrate social sciences Integrate social sciences
Adaptation is 'an endeavor that Adaptation is 'an endeavor that
extends beyond reserves into extends beyond reserves into
human occupied landscapes. human occupied landscapes.
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Climate Change Adaptation. Climate Change Adaptation.
One version One version
'Noah was right. Lets get busv.`
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!"#"$% '()*+# +*,-+) ()
$().+*/-+%0+"#"$%1()*+#