ChE 633: Probabilistic Methods in Chemical Engineering

Homework Problems Set #1:

1. During cancer therapy of children, compliance of treatment is known to be a
significant issue. Suppose that the prescription calls for 250 administrations of the
drug and the probability of compliance is
p
each time. If it is viewed that 20% or
more non-compliance during the entire treatment period is regarded as serious,
what should be the probability of compliance
p
for the treatment to be 80%
successful? Assume binomial distribution and use the integral limit theorem for
the estimation of
p
.
2. In order to understand the concept of a transition probability fully, consider an
entity intact at time t = 0 but undergoes a certain transition at any instant
thereafter with a function t ( ). Define further the probability p t ( ) that the entity
remains intact at time t (i.e., without undergoing transition during the interval 0 to
t ). Solve for the probability function p t ( ) for the following cases and plot the
function and interpret your results. In what appears below

is a positive
constant.
(i) t ( )= .
(ii) t ( )= H t t
o
( ) where H t t
o
( ) is the Heaviside step function which is
zero for
t t
o
and unity for
t > t
o
.
(iii) t ( )= t t
o
( ) where t t
o
( ) is the Dirac delta function.
(iv)
t ( )=

t
o
t ( )
,
t < t
o
.
3. Applications of the Poisson Random Variable:
(i) Viable bacterial counts in a culture are taken by smearing an agar plate with a
sample of the culture and allowing each viable cell to develop a visible colony on
the plate. The colonies are randomly distributed on the plate surface. The average
number density (number per unit area) of cells may be calculated by dividing the
circular plate into little squares and counting the number of cells in each square.
This is a random number. The number of squares
N
k
with k cells is measured
experimentally and recorded below.
k 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 or more
N
k
5 19 26 26 21 13 8 0
Is this consistent with the Poisson distribution? Obtain the distribution and
compare the individual probabilities.
(ii) Crystallization is allowed to occur in a small liquid drop at constant
supersaturation which implies that the rate of nucleation (number of particles per
unit time per unit volume), B remains the same. Suppose the drop volume is V
what is the probability that there will be exactly
n
crystals at time t ?