First Paper Fall, 2014

9/11/2014
The setting is a jury trial for murder. The victim died as the result of a
fatal gun shot. The defendant is charged with a capital crime. During the
trial, the following forensic evidence is introduced.
The fatal bullet was removed from the victim. A chemical analysis of
the metals in the bullet was undertaken. The same kind of analysis was
undertaken for a bullet from a box of ammunition known to have been in the
possession of the defendant. The following information about the forensic
procedures used was provided.
1. The probability of a match when the bullets are the same .98.
2. The probability that the bullets are the same when there is a match is
.82
3. The probability that the bullets are the same and there is a match is
.49
At the crime scene, scrapings from under the victims ngernails contained
some skin fragments. DNA from those skin fragments was compared to the
defendants DNA. The following information about the forensic procedures
used was provided.
1. The probability of a match when the two samples of DNA are from the
same person is .99.
2. The probability that the two samples of DNA are from the same person
when there is a match is .93
3. The probability that the person is the same and there is a match is .74.
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Questions
1. For the bullet analysis, which probability or probabilities is (are) di-
rectly relevant for the case? Why?
2. For the DNA analysis, which probability or probabilities is (are) di-
rectly relevant for the case? Why?
3. Assume that the two forensic procedures (i.e., the bullet tests and DNA
tests) are independent. Is this a plausible assumption here? Why or
why not? What do you mean by independence?
4. The prosecutor claims that the forensics strongly support both the
claim that the bullet red in the homicide came from the box of am-
munition known to be in the possession of the defendant and that the
two DNA samples (i.e., from the crime scene and from the defendant)
came from the same person. If the prosecutor is not committing any of
the prosecution fallacies we discussed, what is the relevant probability,
assuming that the two forensic procedures are independent?
5. From the facts about the crime given to you above, what would be
another important piece of non-forensic evidence easily obtained that
could well be decisive. (e.g., Dont make up that the defendant con-
fessed or that there was an eye witness.)
6. Using the facts about the crime and your answers so far, what do
you conclude about the guilt or innocence of the defendant? If you
were a juror, how would you vote? Explain your reasoning drawing on
descriptive validity and statistical conclusion validity.
For all of your probability calculations, show your work. If you write
clearly, you can do a good job in well under two pages of single spaced text.
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