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9/2/2013

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RBS Projects Ltd.
Erez Klaus, PMP
Erez.klaus@gmail.com
+972-52-848-11-11
Project Management Professional
Certification Examination Workshop
Project Risk Management
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9/2/2013
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Project Risk
Risk Event
Project
Objectives
Plans
Resources
etc.
Adverse
Consequences
Scope
Schedule
Cost
Quality
etc.
Probability
Exposure
A possibility that an event with
adverse consequences for the
project will occur
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Project Risk Management
Qualitative Risk
Analysis
Risk Management
Planning
Risk
Identification
Quantitative Risk
Analysis
Risk Response
Planning
Risk Monitoring
and control
A subset of project management that includes the processes
concerned with identifying, analyzing, and responding to project risk.
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Risk and Project Life Cycle
High
Low
Uncertainty
Amount at Stake
Life Cycle of Project (Time)
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Uncertainty
Estimates
Scope changes
Technology
Stakeholders
Natural environment
Market
Money market
Supplier performance
Personnel interactions
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Challenges in Risk Management
Difficult to measure risk
Difficult to prove benefits
Risk perception affected by
Number of risk events
Corporate culture
Personal values
Time horizon
Complicated analysis
Interaction among risk events
Secondary risks
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11.1 Plan Risk Management
Inputs Tools & Techniques Outputs
1. Project management
plan
1. Analytical techniques 1. Risk management
plan
2. Project charter 2. Expert judgment
3. Stakeholder register 3. Meetings
4. Enterprise
environmental
factors
5. Organizational
process assets
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Risk Management Plan
A separate chapter in the project management
plan, covering:
Roles and responsibilities
Processes
Tools
Scoring, weights, thresholds
Assessment and Decision Criteria
Documentation
Communication
Methodology
Budget and resources
Timing
Reporting and tracking formats
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11.2 Identify Risk
Inputs Tools & Techniques Outputs
1. Risk management plan 1. Documentation reviews 1. Risk register
2. Cost management plan 2. Information gathering
techniques
3. Schedule management plan 3. Checklists analysis
4. Quality management plan 4. Assumptions analysis
5. Human resource
management plan
5. Diagramming techniques
6. Scope baseline 6. SWOT analysis
7. Activity cost estimates 7. Expert judgment
8. Activity duration estimates
9. Stakeholder register
10. Project documents
11. Procurement documents
12. Enterprise environmental
factors
13. Organizational process
assets
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Risk Identification
Identify the risk factors and risk events
that may affect the success of the project
Team effort
Non-judgmental
Not biased
Exhaustive
Consensus / team ownership
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Project type
Projects of a common or recurrent type tend to
have a better understood probability of
occurrence of risk events and their consequences
Project using state-of-the-art or first-of its-kind
technology, or high complex projects, tend
towards more uncertainty
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Types of Risk
Business risk : a normal risk of doing business
with an opportunity of gain or loss
Pure risk : risk not related to the business, with
a possibility of loss only
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Risk Categories
Technical, quality, or performance risks
reliance on unproven or complex technology
unrealistic performance goals
changes to the technology used
Project management risks -
poor allocation of time and resources
inadequate quality of the project plan
Organizational risks
cost
time
scope objectives that are internally inconsistent.
resource conflict
External risks
legal issues
changing owner priorities
country risk
weather
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Review of Documents
Statement of Work
Technical proposal
Product description
Contract
Cost and duration estimates
Staffing plan
Procurement plan
Quality plan
etc.
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Information-gathering Techniques
Brainstorming
Delphi technique
Interviewing
Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and
threats (SWOT) analysis.
Historical information
Project files
Commercial databases
Project team knowledge
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Checklists
Effective and efficient
Organizational memory
Updated periodically
Are kept within a manageable size
Examples of checklist questions
Are there any technical skills lacking ?
Do you have adequate personnel ?
Do you have access to the right people?
Is the team experienced?
Does the project rely on several key people ?
Are there any security clearance problems ?
Are there any requirements missing ?
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Diagramming Techniques
Cause and effect diagrams
Useful for identifying causes of risks.
System or process flow chart
Shows how various elements of a system
interrelate and the mechanism of causation.
Influence diagrams
A graphical representation of a problem showing
casual influences, the temporal sequence of
events, and other relationships among variables
and outcomes
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Influence diagram
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Risk Events and Symptoms
Risk events: specific events that affect the project if
they occur
Examples
Severe weather while the foundation of the building was under
construction
Chief programmer quits team
New hardware does not function as planned
Risk symptoms: indirect manifestations of actual risk
events
Examples:
Too many change requests
Employee turnover
Excessive installation problems
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Risk Register
Contains the outcomes of the other risk
management processes as they are conducted
May include:
List of identified risks
List of potential responses
Root causes of risk
Updated risk categories
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11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Inputs Tools & Techniques Outputs
1. Risk management plan 1. Risk probability and
impact assessment
1. Project document
updates
2. Scope baseline 2. Probability and impact
matrix
3. Risk register 3. Risk data quality
assessment
4. Enterprise
environmental factors
4. Risk categorization
5. Organizational process
assets
5. Risk urgency
assessment
6. Expert judgment
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Qualitative Capability Rating
Very Low can happen theoretically, never heard
of the event occurring
Low may happen but never did occur in our
organization / environment
Moderate did happen occasionally in the recent
past
High did happen more than once
Very High More likely to happen than not to
happen
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Likelihood Factor Rating
Maturity PM Complexity PC Dependency PD Score
Well understood
process; known and
proven technology.
Simple. Equipment or data. 1
Minor changes to
existing processes or
technologies.
Low complexity,
mainly in secondary
areas; straightforward
integration.
Availability schedule. 2
Significant change to
existing process or
technology.
Moderate complexity,
including main areas;
complex integration.
Performance of existing
equipment.
3
New process using
existing technology.
Highly complicated
process; special
integration
requirements.
Performance of new
equipment.
4
State of the art;
processes and
technologies new or
still under development
Very high complexity
requiring breakthrough
thinking.
Performance of new
and still unproven
equipment
5

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Qualitative Impact Rating
High - Irreversible, significant or serious
disruption to schedule; increase in cost, or
degradation of performance - even with special
emphasis, close control, or correction efforts.
Moderate - Some disruption in schedule, cost or
performance - special efforts may overcome the
difficulties.
Low - Minor disruption of schedule cost or
performance - normal efforts will probably
overcome the difficulties.
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Multidimensional Impact Scoring
Cost Schedule Functionality Quality
Impact
Score
Insignificant
cost increase
Insignificant
schedule slippage
Decrease barely
noticeable
Degradation
barely
noticeable
1
Very Low
<5% cost
increase
Overall project
slippage <5%
Minor areas
affected
Only very
demanding
applications are
affected
2
Low
5-10% cost
increase
Overall project
slippage 5-10%
Major areas
affected
Quality
reduction
requires
customer
approval
3
Medium
10-20% cost
increase
Overall project
slippage 10-20%
Functionality
reduction
unacceptable to
customer
Quality
reduction
unacceptable to
customer
4
High
>20% cost
increase
Overall project
slippage >20%
Product is
effectively
useless
Product is
effectively
unusable
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Very High

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Risk Factor
An index for prioritizing risks:
Risk Factor =
probability score
X
Impact score
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Risk Map
Impact
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

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Risk Prioritization
Risk Mapping according to Risk Factor
0
1
2
3
4
0 1 2 3 4
Impact
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
Managerial Risks Managerial Risks
Managerial Risks Managerial Risks
Managerial Risks Managerial Risks
Managerial Risks Technical Risks
Technical Risks Technical Risks
Technical Risks Technical Risks
Technical Risks Technical Risks
Functional Risks Functional Risks
Functional Risks Functional Risks
Functional Risks Functional Risks
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Risk Data Quality Assessment
A technique of evaluating the extent to which the
data about the risks are useful for risk
management
Examining the extent of understanding risk and
the accuracy, quality, reliability, and integrity of
the data about the risk
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Risk Urgency Assessment
Risks requiring immediate responses may be
considered more urgent to address
Indicators of priority can include time to effect a
risk response, symptoms and warning signs, and
the risk rating
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11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Inputs Tools & Techniques Outputs
1. Risk management plan 1. Data gathering and
representation
techniques
1. Project document
updates
2. Cost management plan 2. Quantitative risk
analysis and modeling
techniques
3. Schedule management
plan
3. Expert judgment
4. Risk register
5. Enterprise
environmental factors
6. Organizational process
assets
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Expected Monetary Value
The expected value is the sum of the values of all
possible outcomes of the risk event (random
variable) weighted by their respective
probabilities
Example: Event - weather during construction
Good weather (p=0.60) loss: 0
Rain only (p=0.25) loss:
$200k
Rain and hail (p=0.10) loss: $300k
Flood (p=0.05) loss: $500k
Expected value:
0.25*200+0.10*300+0.05*500=105k
Prob. Of loss > $200k = 0.10 + 0.05 = 0.15
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Decision Tree - Example
New Product
Development
Project
release now
problems p=0.10
10 M$
no problems p=0.90
ignore
correct problems 7 M$
5 M$
1 M$
competition enters
market p=0.20
no competition
p=0.80
test and release
in 3 months
8 M$
5 M$
4 M$
6 M$
no competition
p=0.70
competitor enters
market p=0.30
ad campaign
cut price
not successful
p=0.40
successful
p=0.60
Decision point
Chance event
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Simulation
Simulation uses a representation or model of a
system to analyze the behavior or performance of
the system
Monte Carlo simulation:
Multiple simulated executions of the project (runs).
In each run, the values of random variables are
generated according to some previously assumed
distribution, and the total cost and duration are
calculated
The uncertainty of the total cost and duration are
assessed based on the distribution of the values for
the simulated runs
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Sensitivity Analysis
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11.5 Plan Risk Responses
Inputs Tools & Techniques Outputs
1. Risk management
plan
1. Strategies for
negative risks or
threats
1. Project management
plan updates
2. Risk register 2. Strategies for
positive risks or
opportunities
2. Project document
updates
3. Contingent response
strategy
4. Expert judgment
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Strategies for Negative Risks
Avoid: eliminate the exposure to the risk
Transfer: (insurance, subcontracting)
Mitigate: reduce the expected loss
Reduce probability or outcome
Acceptance: accept the expected loss
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Avoid
Avoid \ eliminate exposure to risk:
Change scope of work
Remove constraints
Use alternative resources \suppliers \etc.
May affect
Overall project objectives
Customer satisfaction
Cost \ profitability
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Transfer
Transfer task to an outside organization, which is
better equipped to deal with the risk due to
Resources
Expertise
Experience
Economies of scale
May introduce new risks and costs
Insurance: substitute a known, smaller cost for an
uncertain damage
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Mitigate
Reduce probability of event
Focus on the Risk Factors
Acquire information - reduce uncertainty
research, tests, pilot, prototype, etc.
Preventive steps
select more reliable suppliers / technologies/ etc
Reduce impact of event:
Recovery plans
Reserves - materials, resources, budget, time
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Accept the Risk
Suitable for risk events with
Low probability
Low impact
High mitigation cost
Do not justify taking action
Make a conscious decision to bear
consequences if risk materializes
Prepare budget reserve or time buffer if required
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Strategies for Positive Risks
Exploit to ensure that the opportunity is
realized
Share allocating ownership to a third party
who is best able to capture the opportunity for
the benefit of the project
Enhance modifies the size of an
opportunity
Accept no change in the project
management plan to deal with the risk
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Risk Response Plan
Should include:
Identified risks
Risk owners and assigned responsibility
Results from the qualitative and quantitative risk
analysis processes
Agreed responses for each risk
Budget and times for responses
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Residual and Secondary Risks
Residual risks are those that remain after
avoidance, transfer, or mitigation responses have
been taken
Secondary risks: risks that arise as a direct result
of implementing a risk response
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Risk-related Contractual Agreements
Fixed price contract
Insurance
Performance bond
Bonuses and penalties
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11.6 Control Risks
Inputs Tools & Techniques Outputs
1. Project management
plan
1. Risk reassessment 1. Work performance
information
2. Risk register 2. Risk audits 2. Change requests
3. Work performance
data
3. Variance and trend
analysis
3. Project management
plan updates
4. Work Performance
reports
4. Technical
performance
measurement
4. Project document
updates
5. Reserve analysis 5. Organizational
process assets
updates
6. Meetings
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Risk Management Plan - Monitoring
Assign responsibility for monitoring each risk
Update probability and outcome assessments
Assess periodically the overall risk exposure of
the project
Update contingency plans
Manage reserves
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Risk Status Reporting example
Risk
ID
Risk
statement
Assigned to Probability
Last Current
Impact
Last Current
Priority
Last Current
Flag







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Risk Monitoring & Control
Keep track of the identified risks
Monitor the validity of the project assumptions
Watch for occurrence of risk triggers
Monitor residual risks
Identify new risks
Ensure that risk responses have been implemented
as planned
Evaluate the risk plans effectiveness in reducing risk
Risk monitoring & control is an ongoing process for the
life of the project
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Workarounds
Unplanned responses to negative risk events
Not defined prior to the risk event occurrence
Crisis risk management
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A 90% decrease in project problems can be achueved through the
use of risk management.
The PM being in control of the project and not the other way around
Risk management focuses on proactively preventing things that can
go wrong and helping things to go right
No problem, we have a plan for that!
Risk management efforts should be appropriate to the project size,
without a standardized checklist
Everyone should be involved in risk management
Communicate your risks and strategies
Great PMs begin looking for risk as soon as a project is first
discussed
Risk management is an iterative process
The PM does not have to do it all by him/herself
The PM should identify the early warning signs
Risk should be a major topic at status meetings
PMI`s Spirit
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Thank you
RBS Projects Ltd.
Erez Klaus, PMP
Erez.klaus@gmail.com
+972-52-848-11-11
RBS Projects Ltd.
Shay Shargal, PMP
Shay.shargal@gmail.com
052-23-11-11-0

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