Page 1 of 5

Question No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total

Maximum Marks 2 2 3 3 2 3 15
Students Score

Indian Institute of Management Bangalore
QM101: Quantitative Methods I
Quiz-1
Time: 1 hour. Name:___________________
Max Points: 15 Roll No.:_________________
This is an open-book, open-note exam; however you are not allowed to share material
with other students. Do not seek any clarifications. Do not attach any additional sheets;
use the back sides, if necessary. To get credit, you must
circle/clearly indicate your final answer,
answer all questions in the space provided (to the extent possible)
Be precise, but provide brief adequate reasoning in support of your answers.


The year is 2015 and India is playing in the West Indies. Its chance of winning any Test is 0.4 and
losing is 0.6. (Drawn or tied Test Matches are considered improbable given the recent pitch
conditions in the West Indies.)

1. What is the probability that after the after the first four tests, the series is tied at 2-2?












2. Given that the first four Tests are tied 2-2, what is the probability that India won the
first and third Test?






Page 2 of 5
India is now set to play the deciding test match against West Indies at Queens Park Oval. As the
Indian captain looks at the green-top wicket which is likely to be good for batting and also assist
spinners during the latter stages of the game, he is in a typical dilemma regarding team selection.
He can either select 3 or 4 pace bowlers, depending on whether 6 or 5 specialist batsmen are
selected (he would need to select a wicket-keeper and a spinner to make the playing XI). Both the
alternatives have pros and cons and the following tables summarize how the captain assesses the
whole situation.
He believes that the first critical factor of the match will be the number of wickets lost during the
first session by the team batting first and this in turn depends on the number of pace bowlers in the
team fielding (bowling) first. Table 1 gives the probability of wickets lost by the batting team in the
1
st
session for different number of pace bowlers in the bowling team:
Table 1: distribution of # wickets
to fall in 1st session
No of wickets to
fall in the 1st
session
No. of pace
bowlers in the
fielding team
3 4
0 0.1 0.02
1 0.25 0.18
2 0.23 0.25
3 0.22 0.25
4 0.15 0.15
5 0.05 0.1
6 0.05
For example, this means that there is 10% chance that the team batting first will lose no wickets in
the first session if the fielding side plays 3 pace bowlers.
The West Indian team has a similar dilemma and consideration regarding its team selection; the
probability of them playing 6 batsmen is half that of playing 5 of them.

3. If India bats first, how many wickets is India expected to lose in the 1
st
session?















Page 3 of 5












4. Given that India bats first and has lost more than 3 wickets in the 1
st
session, what is
the probability that West Indies has three pace bowlers in the team?
















Page 4 of 5
5. What is the standard deviation of the number of wickets to fall in the 1
st
session given
that India is batting first and there are 3 pace bowlers in the West Indian team?












Page 5 of 5
The runs scored in the 1
st
innings by the team batting 1
st
is the next big aspect in deciding
the result of the match. This depends on the number of wickets lost by the batting team in
the 1
st
session, as well as on the number of the specialist batsmen picked in the team. In
Table 2, the skipper assesses the chance of the team scorings runs in various ranges
brackets, when the team has 5 specialist batsmen:

Table 2: Distribution of runs scored in the 1st innings
No of wickets to fall
in the 1st session
Runs scored by the batting team
(with 5 specialist batsman) in the
1st innings
<250 250 -- 400 >400
0 0.15 0.3 0.55
1 0.2 0.3 0.5
2 0.3 0.35 0.35
3 0.4 0.4 0.2
4 0.5 0.4 0.1
5 0.6 0.35 0.05
6 0.8 0.15 0.05

The chance of scoring more than 400 runs is 20% higher with 6 specialist batsmen and
the chance of scoring less than 250 is 20% lower. This means, for example, that if the
team loses no wickets in the 1
st
session, then the probability of scoring more than 400
runs in the first innings, improves from 55% to 66% as the team has one more batsman;
the chance of scoring less than 250 then becomes 12%.

6. If both the teams select 6 specialist batsmen and India bats first, what is the chance
that India will lose 4 wickets in the 1
st
session and yet score between 250 and 400
runs in the first innings?