Prevalence and predictors of depression among an elderly population of Pakistan Hammad A. Ganatra a , Syed N. Zafar a , Waris Qidwai b * and Shafquat Rozi c a Medical College, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan; b Department of Family Medicine, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan; c Department of Community Health Sciences, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan (Received 16 April 2007; final version received 3 August 2007) Objective: To assess the magnitude and risk factors of the problem of depression in an elderly population of Pakistan. Method: A cross-sectional study was conducted using a sample of 402 people aged 65 and above visiting the Community Health Center of the Aga Khan University, Karachi. Questionnaire based interviews were conducted for data collection and the 15-Item Geriatric Depression Scale was used to screen for depression. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with depression. Results: Of the 402 participants; 69.7% (95% CI 4.5%) were men, 76.4% (95% CI 4.2%) were currently married, 36.8% (95% CI 5%) had received 11 or more years of education and 24.4% (95% CI 4.2%) were employed. The mean age was 70.57 years (SD5.414 years). The prevalence of depression was found to be 22.9% (95% CI 4.1%) and multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that higher number of daily medications ( p-value 0.03), total number of health problems ( p-value 0.002), financial problems ( p-value50.001), urinary incontinence ( p-value 0.08) and inadequately fulfilled spiritual needs ( p-value 0.067) were significantly associated with depressive symptoms. Conclusion: We have identified several risk factors for depression in the elderly which need to be taken into account by practicing family physicians and health care workers. Keywords: geriatrics; elderly, depression; risk factors; prevalence; precipitators Introduction Depression is a severely debilitating psychiatric illness that can challenge a persons ability to perform even the simplest tasks of daily living. It usually involves depressed or irritable mood and loss of interest or pleasure in activities of life. At its worst, depression brings about a feeling of worthlessness and suicidal ideations or attempts (Szanto et al., 2002). Fortunately, most cases of depression respond posi- tively to anti-depressant therapy, leading to improved quality of life (Wilson, Mottram, Sivanranthan, & Nightingale, 2001). In old age, depressive symptoms often affect people with chronic medical illnesses, cognitive impairment, or disability (Alexopoulos et al., 2002). In addition to personal suffering and family disruption, depression worsens the outcomes of many medical disorders and aggravates disability (Alexopoulos et al., 2002; Blazer, 2003). Depression among elderly patients is always a pathological process (Nelson, 2001). However, it may be difficult to diagnose in the elderly because of factors such as late onset, co-morbid medical illnesses, dementia, and bereavement (Nelson, 2001). Studies have shown that it remains under-diagnosed and under-treated even in the developed countries (Unutzer, 2002). Several studies have been carried out in developed countries (Chow et al., 2004; Heath, Brown, Kobylarz, & Castano, 2005; Kivela, Pahkala, & Laippala, 1988; Wada et al., 2004) to assess the prevalence and risk factors of depression among the geriatric population while only a few similar studies have been done in the developing world (Al-Shammari & Al-Subaie, 1999; Thongtang et al., 2002). In all these studies there was considerable variation in the prevalence and risk factors of geriatric depression. Depending on the country of origin and the study settings prevalences have been reported to range from as low as 0.9% to as high as 42% among elderly Caucasians (Djernes, 2006). Similarly, studies from India report figures of geriatric depression ranging from 6% to 50% (Patel & Prince, 2001). In Pakistan several studies have been conducted to assess depression in the general population (Mirza & Jenkins, 2004), but to our knowledge no such study has been carried out in the elderly. Therefore, as this important issue still remained unexplored in Pakistan, a need was felt to assess the magnitude of this problem and to determine the factors that might precipitate depression in a geriatric population of Pakistan, and hence identify areas for intervention and further research. Methods Sample and settings We designed a cross-sectional study which was carried out using questionnaire based interviews. *Corresponding author. Email: waris.qidwai@aku.edu ISSN 13607863 print/ISSN 13646915 online 2008 Taylor & Francis DOI: 10.1080/13607860802121068 http://www.informaworld.com It was conducted in the waiting areas of the Community Health Centre (CHC) of Aga Khan University Hospital (AKUH) in Karachi. Karachi is the largest city of Pakistan with a population of more than 13 million (City District Government Karachi) comprising of a mixture of all the major ethnic groups found in Pakistan (Punjabi, Sindhi, Mohajir, Baluchi, Pathan, Memon, Kashmiri and Afghani). Health care services in Karachi are provided by many private and state owned hospitals. Catering to 500,000 out patients annually AKUH is one of the largest private tertiary hospitals in the country, providing high quality health services to people from all over Karachi and Pakistan. Although it is a relatively expensive hospital, the CHC, which is a primary health care facility within its premises, provides out patient family medicine and specialist services at very subsidized rates which are comparable with other cheap facilities in the city. Hence people from all socioeconomic classes come here to seek treatment. We obtained a probability sample by approaching all people (patients and attendants) aged 65 and above in the waiting areas. People unable to comprehend the questions asked by the interviewers were excluded. This comprised of people who could not understand Urdu or those with severe cognitive impairment. This was continued for 2 weeks (during the second half of July 2006) until we had approached 425 eligible candidates. With a rejection rate of 5.5%, we managed to complete 402 interviews. The commonest reason for refusal was lack of time. The interviews were conducted by senior medical students who were trained to administer the questionnaire by experienced researchers and psychiatrists. Written informed consent was taken after explain- ing the study objectives. The subjects were free to withdraw at any time without giving any reason. Confidentiality of all subjects was ensured. Questionnaire The questionnaire was designed after an extensive literature search (Abolfotouh, Daffallah, Khan, Khattab, & Abdulmoneim 2001; Borglin, Jakobsson, Edberg, & Hallberg, 2005; Cole & Dendukuri, 2003; Djernes, 2006). A pre-test was carried out on 30 subjects. No major changes were required, and the results of the pre-test were discarded. The questionnaire was divided into five parts. The first part dealt with the demographic profile of the subjects (age, sex, marital status, etc). The second part assessed common health issues (fatigue, incon- tinence, immobility, hearing loss etc.). A three-point anchored scale (mild, moderate and severe) allowed the subjects to self-report each health complaint according to its severity. Present chronic diseases and their status were also taken into account. The third part evaluated socio-economic risk factors (financial problems, living conditions, major losses, etc) while the fourth part was concerned with the spiritual needs (presence, nature, fulfillment, changes with age, etc) of the geriatric population. The last part of the questionnaire assessed depression using the 15-Item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15) (Sheikh & Yesavage, 1986). Although there are several tools to assess depres- sion in the Urdu speaking populations (Naqvi & Khan, 2005), none of them have been designed to target the elderly. Depression in the elderly presents differently, it manifests less with somatic symptoms and more with affective ones (Bolla-Wilson & Bleecker, 1989; Zemore & Eames, 1979). Therefore, we chose the GDS-15. This scale was developed in 1986 by Sheikh and Yesavage as a research and clinical tool specifically for the elderly population (Sheikh & Yesavage, 1986). Over the years it has been translated and validated by several researchers (Wancata, Alexandrowicz, Marquart, Weiss, & Friedrich, 2006). Due to the lack of validation studies in our population, there are no cut-off values for identifying depression using the GDS-15. We used a cut-off value of 5 to identify depression as studies in other populations have shown this value to be highly sensitive and specific (Abas et al., 1998; Hoyl et al., 1999). We translated this scale to Urdu and to see if the original wordings were preserved it was re-translated back to English by three different people. The three translators were randomly selected by the non-medical people who were blinded to the study. No validation studies have been conducted on the Urdu version of the GDS-15 and this may be a limitation of this study. The rest of the questionnaire was also designed in Urdu. Statistical analysis Data were double entered on Epi-Info version 6 and SPSS version 13 was used for statistical analysis and data management. Descriptive statistics included means (SD) for continuous variables and proportions for categorical variables. The Chi-square Test and Univariate Logistic Regression were used to identify the factors associated with depression amongst the elderly and to calculate the crude odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of the associating independent variables. To assess the independent effect of individual factors, potential confounders were controlled by means of Multiple Logistic Regression Analysis and the adjusted ORs (AOR) with their 95% CI were calculated. Variables which were biologically meaningful or had a p-value 0.25 upon univariate analysis were selected for multivariate analysis (Hosmer & Lemeshow, 2000). Results Four hundred and two (402) subjects above or equal to the age of 65 were surveyed with a response rate of 94.5%. There were 280 (69.7%) males and 350 H.A. Ganatra et al. 122 (30.3%) females. Age ranged from 65 to 90 years, with majority (64.7%) lying between ages of 65 and 70 (mean age 70.6 years). Of the total participants 76.4% were currently married and 75.6% were unemployed. Most subjects had received 11 or more years of education (36.8%) while 15.4% had received secondary level education (grade 610), 20.1% had received primary education (grade 15) and 27.6% were illiterate. The subjects were from all common ethnic backgrounds found in Pakistan. The prevalence of depression amongst the elderly was found to be 22.9% (n 92). Depression was found to be present in 27.8% of the females (34 out of 122) and in 20.7% of the males (58 out of 280). The results of univariate analysis are presented in Table 1. Depression in the elderly was significantly associated with being unmarried, not being employed, hearing impairment, dizziness, pain, mobility impair- ment, stress, dyspnea, fatigue, insomnia, visual impair- ment, higher number of health problems, chronic illnesses, number of daily medicines, major losses in life, dissatisfaction with health services, financial problems and inadequately fulfilled spiritual needs ( p 0.05). The final multiple logistic regression analysis model (Table 2) showed that after adjusting for confounders, financial problems ( p-value 0.002), increasing number of daily medicines ( p-value 0.03) and greater number of health problems ( p-value 0.002) were independent risk factors of geriatric depression. Mild urinary incon- tinence ( p-value 0.08) and inadequately fulfilled spiritual needs ( p-value 0.067) were found to be marginally associated with depression in the elderly. Discussion We found a 22.9% prevalence of depression among the elderly in our study. Since this study was the first of its kind in Pakistan there was no local data available for comparison purposes. However, it was lower than the mean prevalence of 34% in the general population of the country as reported by a systematic review (Mirza & Jenkins, 2004). Several studies have been conducted in developing countries to assess the prevalence of depression in the geriatric population. Studies in community samples have reported it to range from 6% to 50% in India (Patel & Prince, 2001) and 12.78% in Thailand (Thongtang et al., 2002). The prevalence of depres- sion amongst the elderly presenting to primary health care centres in Saudi Arabia has been reported to be 39% (Al-Shammari & Al-Subaie, 1999). A systematic review by Djernes (2006) reported the prevalence of depression among elderly Caucasians in developed countries to range from 0.9 to 42%. Furthermore, it was found that the prevalence of depression in community dwellers (0.925%) was generally lower than those living in nursing homes (1442%). The above figures indicate that the prevalence of geriatric depression varies significantly depending on the country and settings. Our prevalence of 22.9% was derived from a population comprising of both; patients presenting to a primary health care centre and attendants, who had no acute illness. Therefore, in our opinion if a population-based study was carried out in a pure community setting in Pakistan the prevalence might be lower, but this can only be confirmed by further research. Numerous risk factors of geriatric depression have been identified previously (Al-Shammari & Al-Subaie, 1999; Chow et al., 2004; Cole & Dendukuri, 2003; Garcia Serrano & Tobias Ferrer, 2001; Heun & Hein, 2005; Thongtang et al., 2002). Some of them are low education levels, low vision, swallowing difficulties, financial inadequacy, life dissatisfaction, poor self- perceived health, bereavement, sleep disturbance, memory impairment, prior depression, female gender, poor family relationships, physical illness, medication use, dependence in activities of daily living, unemploy- ment, divorced or widowed status, living alone and fecal/urinary incontinence. As shown in Table 1, most of these risk factors were also associated with depression among the elderly in our sample. On multivariate analysis, we found that depression is precipitated by various physical and social factors. Physical factors included increasing health problems, greater medicine use and urinary incontinence, whereas social factors included financial difficulties and unful- filled spiritual needs. The total number of health problems is the most important physical factor responsible for geriatric depression. Chronic diseases in the elderly have been shown to be the most consistent risk factor of depression (Cole & Dendukuri, 2003; Djernes, 2006). In old age, the number of health problems accumu- late. They add up with the persisting chronic ailments to become quite cumbersome, one problem leading to another till a progressively worsening vicious cycle is formed. Health problems are known to become much more of a burden in the geriatric population (Borglin et al., 2005) and the cumulative effect of multiple diseases leads to a lower quality of life (Sharma, 2003). Our study has also demonstrated that elderly with 10 or more health problems are several times more likely to be depressed. This increasing number of health problems invariably leads to a greater use of medicines which is another major problem in the elderly. A high number of daily medicines may remind them of how sick they are and cause reinforcement of the sick role. It is also quite bothersome to swallow so many pills each day. According to our findings, elderly people using three or more medicines were at least twice as likely to be depressed as compared to those who were not taking any medication. Similar findings have also been reported by other researchers (Al-Shammari & Al-Subaie, 1999; Garcia Serrano & Tobias Ferrer, 2001). Aging & Mental Health 351 Table 1. Univariate analysis of factors associated with depression among an elderly population of Karachi, Pakistan. Depression n (%) Variables Depressed Non-depressed Crude OR a 95% CI b Gender ( p-value 0.118) Male 58 (63) 222 (71.6) 1.00 Female 34 (37) 88 (28.4) 1.48 (0.912.41) Marital status ( p-value 0.021) Married 62 (67.4) 245 (79) 1.00 Unmarried 30 (32.6) 65 (21) 1.82 (1.093.05) Education ( p-value 0.205) 11 or more years 30 (32.6) 118 (29) 1.00 610 years 20 (21.7) 42 (13.5) 1.87 (0.963.65) 15 years 15 (16.3) 66 (21.3) 0.89 (0.451.78) Illiterate 27 (29.3) 84 (27.1) 1.26 (0.7012.28) Satisfaction with health services ( p-value 0.002) Yes 27 (29.3) 156 (50.5) 1.00 No 59 (64.1) 136 (44.0) 2.49 (1.494.14) Dont know 6 (6.5) 17 (5.5) 2.04 (0.745.64) Employment ( p-value 0.042) Employed 17 (18.5) 81 (26.1) 1.00 Retired 41 (44.6) 154 (49.7) 1.27 (0.682.37) Housewife 34 (37) 75 (24.2) 2.16 (1.124.19) Living alone ( p-value 0.075) No 85 (92.4) 300 (96.8) 1.00 Yes 7 (7.6) 10 (3.2) 2.47 (0.916.69) Number of daily medications ( p-value 0.001) None 9 (9.8) 77 (24.8) 1.00 12 drugs 21 (22.8) 92 (29.7) 1.95 (0.854.51) 34 drugs 31 (33.7) 79 (25.5) 3.36 (1.507.52) More 31 (33.7) 62 (20) 4.28 (1.899.66) Hearing impairment ( p-value 0.008) None 48 (52.2) 185 (59.7) 1.00 Mild 32 (34.8) 112 (36.1) 1.10 (0.661.83) Severe 12 (13) 13 (4.2) 3.56 (1.538.29) Memory decline ( p-value 0.848) None 46 (50) 163 (52.6) 1.00 Mild 41 (44.6) 128 (41.3) 1.14 (0.701.84) Severe 5 (5.4) 19 (6.1) 0.93 (0.332.63) Urinary Incontinence ( p-value 0.153) None 57 (62) 212 (68.4) 1.00 Mild 25 (27.2) 56 (18.1) 1.66 (0.952.89) Severe 10 (10.9) 42 (13.5) 0.89 (0.421.87) Dizziness ( p-value50.001) None 40 (43.5) 203 (65.5) 1.00 Mild 35 (38) 89 (28.7) 2.00 (1.193.35) Severe 17 (18.5) 18 (5.8) 4.79 (2.2810.09) Pain ( p-value 0.003) None 16 (17.4) 103 (33.2) 1.00 Mild 40 (43.5) 131 (42.3) 1.97 (1.043.20) Severe 36 (39.1) 76 (24.5) 3.05 (1.585.90) Mobility impairment ( p-value 0.012) None 41 (44.6) 190 (61.3) 1.00 Mild 39 (42.4) 85 (27.4) 2.13 (1.283.56) Severe 12 (13) 35 (11.3) 1.59 (0.763.32) Dyspnea and Fatigue ( p-value 0.023) None 30 (18.9) 129 (81.1) 1.00 Mild 41 (22) 145 (78) 1.22 (0.322.06) Severe 21 (36.8) 36 (63.2) 2.51 (1.294.90) Sleep problems ( p-value 0.001) None 50 (54.3) 212 (68.4) 1.00 Mild 20 (21.7) 68 (21.9) 1.25 (0.692.24) Severe 22 (23.9) 30 (9.7) 3.11 (1.665.84) (continued ) 352 H.A. Ganatra et al. Studies throughout the world have validated the link between financial difficulties and geriatric depres- sion (Al-Shammari & Al-Subaie, 1999; Chow et al., 2004; Thongtang et al., 2002). Financial difficulties pose an even greater problem in a developing third- world country like ours. Most elderly in our sample were financially supported either by their children (51.2%) and/or through their previous investments (45.3%). Unlike the developed western countries, there is no significant government support for the elderly in Pakistan. Only 15.9% of the subjects were receiving pensions from the government and even these were of very meager amounts. Although a causal link is clearly a possibility, the direction of causality is by no means clear. Living with financial difficulties puts the elderly at a great social disadvantage and causes mental stress and worries which then contribute towards depression. However, it is also possible that a depressed individual perceives himself to have a multitude of problems which would also include financial problems. Since the financial problems stated in our study were self reported we were unable to determine the direction of causality. Objective assessment of the socio-economic status of our participants would have made this possible. Urinary incontinence in old age is another matter of concern worldwide (Damian, Valderrama-Gama, Rodriguez-Artalejo, & Martin-Moreno, 2004; Jumadilova, Zyczynski, Paul, & Narayanan, 2005). It imposes severe restrictions on the social life of the elderly as they are unable to go to public places to work or socialize for longer periods with family or friend. Due to the restraints placed on their daily lives elderly patients with urinary incontinence have worse perceived health which has a substantial negative impact on the quality of life (Ko, Lin, Salmon, & Bron, 2005) and this in turn may precipitate depres- sion. Urinary incontinence poses greater problems among our population which comprises mostly of practicing Muslims. According to our findings, 98% of the elderly reported the practice of religion as the main spiritual need. However, elderly with urinary incon- tinence are unable to do so appropriately due to the Islamic religious requirement of being clean. To be hindered from practicing religion due to any reason poses a great psychological burden upon the elderly, as Table 1. Continued. Depression n (%) Variables Depressed Non-depressed Crude OR a 95% CI b Visual impairment ( p-value 0.023) None 47 (51.1) 206 (66.5) 1.00 Mild 36 (39.1) 79 (25.5) 2.00 (1.213.31) Severe 8 (9.8) 25 (8.1) 1.58 (0.693.60) Stress ( p-value50.001) None 34 (37) 210 (67.7) 1.00 Mild 28 (30.4) 73 (23.5) 2.37 (1.344.18) Severe 30 (32.6) 27 (8.7) 6.86 (3.6412.93) No. of health problems ( p-value50.001) 13 6 (6.5) 73 (23.5) 1.00 46 22 (23.9) 102 (32.9) 2.62 (1.016.80) 79 19 (20.7) 71 (22.9) 3.26 (1.238.63) 1012 30 (32.6) 52 (16.8) 7.02 (2.7318.08) 13 15 (16.3) 12 (3.9) 15.21 (4.9346.92) Chronic diseases ( p-value 0.039) No 16 (17.4) 87 (28.1) 1.00 Yes 76 (82.6) 223 (71.9) 1.85 (1.023.35) No. of recreational activities ( p-value 0.053) 46 25 (17.4) 119 (82.6) 1.00 13 64 (25.4) 188 (74.6) 1.62 (0.972.72) None 3 (50) 3 (50) 4.76 (0.9124.97) Major loss ( p-value 0.011) No 57 (62) 235 (75.8) 1.00 Yes 35 (38) 75 (24.2) 1.92 (1.173.15) Financial problems ( p-value50.001) No 58 (63) 259 (83.5) 1.00 Yes 34 (37) 51 (16.5) 2.98 (1.775.00) Spiritual needs adequately fulfilled? ( p-value 0.009) Yes 46 (55.4) 200 (70.9) 1.00 No 37 (44.6) 82 (29.1) 1.96 (1.193.25) Notes: a OR Odds Ratio. b CI Confidence Interval. Aging & Mental Health 353 our study has shown inadequately fulfilled spiritual needs to be associated with depression with marginal significance. The majority of our respondents (72.3%) reported that their spiritual needs have increased with age; hence it is a cause of concern that these increasing needs are not being met. It has been shown that religious involvement is usually associated with better mental health (Moreira-Almeida, Neto, & Koenig, 2006). The reasons as to why these needs are not being fulfilled can be a topic for further research. It must be noted that there are a few limitations to this study. First of all, as the participants were derived from a convenient site, it is difficult to determine the representativeness of our sample to the general population. The sample obtained was not a homo- genous one and comprised of both patients and non-patients; it was also not possible to provide information about those sections of the community that were not represented by this sample and about those who refused to participate in this study. Nevertheless, we believe that this sample was adequate for an initial study and gives us a rough idea about the burden and precipitators of geriatric depression in our country. Our findings highlight the need for popula- tion studies to determine the precise prevalence of geriatric depression and to further investigate its causative factors in our society. Secondly, we did not make any objective assess- ment of the self-reported problems and reliability of such data is always questionable. The authors are of the opinion that as this study was the first of its kind in our population, there were many variables to look into and the objective measurement of all of these variables would have been extremely tedious and tiresome for both the interviewers and the elderly participants. This would have adversely affected quality of the data and therefore, the results. However, now that we have identified specific factors associated with depression in the elderly, we strongly recommend further objective studies to be carried out to fully explore the relationship of each factor with geriatric depression. Another major limitation could be the Urdu translation of the GDS-15 that we used in our study. As no validation study has ever been carried out on this version, the results may prove to be misleading. Although it is not possible to claim with surety that the Urdu version of this scale would have the same sensitivity and specificity as the original version, we believe that it should be similar. The reason for this assumption is the fact that GDS-15 has been translated and validated in many different populations and languages and we found no reason as to why it would be unsuitable for our population. We also found that the wording and meaning of the questions were preserved after re-translating it back to English. However, this claim can never be concrete unless validation studies are carried out on the Urdu version of GDS-15. Another important area that needs to be researched is the association of family systems with geriatric depression. The joint family systems in our part of the world offer greater social and financial support to the elderly (Itrat, Taqui, Qazi, & Qidwai, 2007) and in our opinion this might lead to a lower prevalence of geriatric depression. This is supported by an Indian study, which showed better prognosis of depression among elderly living in joint family systems (Jhingan, Sagar, & Pandey, 2001). Conclusions Even though the prevalence of geriatric depression reported by our study is less than that of most other countries, it is still a high percentage and efforts should be made to reduce this figure. There are currently 6.16 million people in Pakistan aged 65 or above (World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision) and our study indicates that at least one in five of them may be suffering from depression. We have managed to identify several easily modifiable risk factors of depression among the elderly. Therefore, through the combined efforts of health care professionals and the government a reduction in geriatric depression is possible. As there are no specialized geriatric clinics in Pakistan, most elderly end up being treated by family physicians. These physicians need to be aware of the burden of geriatric depression and its risk factors. Further population-based studies should be carried out to accurately estimate the burden of Table 2. Multivariate analysis of factors associated with depression among an elderly population of Karachi, Pakistan. Variable Adjusted OR a 95.0% CI b Number of daily medications ( p-value 0.032) None 1.00 12 drugs 1.83 (0.734.57) 34 drugs 2.49 (1.026.08) More than 4 drugs 3.70 (1.499.22) Urinary incontinence ( p-value 0.067) None 1.00 Mild 1.11 (0.562.18) Severe 0.38 (0.160.91) Total number of health problems ( p-value 0.002) 13 1.00 46 2.66 (0.997.20) 79 2.45 (0.876.94) 1012 4.84 (1.7313.55) 13 10.83 (3.0138.92) Financial problems ( p-value 0.001) No 1.00 Yes 2.96 (1.595.48) Adequately fulfilled spiritual needs ( p-value 0.08) Yes 1.00 No 1.67 (0.942.98) Notes: a OR Odds Ratio. b CI Confidence Interval. 354 H.A. 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