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Defining the Great Powers in the Current

Global Economy

While power and the struggle for it have been worldwide and age old phenomena, the term
superpower was only coined in 1944 by academician William T. R. Fox. It was, perhaps the
outcome of his attempt to describe nation-states that were greater than the Great powers, a
related and more commonly used term, given the global context then. It has since been applied to
describe entities across ages that have yielded the unparalleled ability to exert influence or project
power on a global scale, and the most recent recipients of this distinction were the United States of
America (USA) and the former Soviet Union. Interestingly enough, a few decades it was
underwhelmed, literally and otherwise, the term great power(s) is back in business, as evidenced
by Google Trends data (at least until December 2013; Appendix A). A seemingly direct explanation
for this dilution, is a statement from Naims article, that the world over, power no longer buys as
much as it used to.
The current global political and economic order is a result of as well as best characterized by two
dynamic and powerful tools, information and interaction. The demand, supply and flow of
information, including what was hitherto deemed proprietary, confidential or even unimportant, has
significantly altered inter-state as well as intra-state dynamics. WikiLeaks, Arab Spring and Indias
Aam Aadmi movement are three disparate events which, despite occurring in different political and
economic systems, have together caused a paradigm shift in the citizens perceptions of and the
expectations from, their State: lower pretension and higher transparency for people in a
developed USA and W Europe, greater freedom in the autocratic Arab world, and good
governance in developing India. Going forward, a States ability and willingness to handle this new
dynamic, would determine its Power and unless Communism makes a strong, worldwide comeback,
such a scenario best suits systems modelled on America lines.
Interaction is the other key aspect which has had widespread impact. China and India have grown, to
a large extent, on the strength of the outsourcing of manufacturing and services, respectively, from
the Developed markets. USA and China, often seen as rivals in the international arena, share the
worlds second largest trade relationship (estimated at USD 562 billion in AY 2013). In contrast, the
superpower trade, i.e. between USA-USSR peaked at USD 4.5 billion in 1979, reflecting not only poor
interaction but also apparent disinterest or even hostility. Interaction, of course, goes beyond
economic cooperation and includes strategic partnerships between allies as well as new
partnerships, e.g. BRICs and IBSA and greater military coordination as well, as Brazil, China, EU, India,
Japan and Russia, in various combinations, have held several military exercises.
Most studies of power list USA, EU, China, India and Russia, based largely on current and projected
economic and military strengths. An analysis of each players strengths and weaknesses, based on a
slight modification of Barnett & Duvalls power taxonomy model structural aspect has been
removed to make the study more general and wider in nature, soft power, whose dimensions have
indeed become far wider in recent years, has been added has been done largely based on
secondary sources of information (Appendices B, C). The following summaries are based on these
findings:

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USA
USA is the pre-eminent global Power and scores highly on Productive power democratic values and
personal freedom, values that it strongly espouses and has helped propagate, remain strong ideals
worldwide. USA has, through multiple interventions, keen interest and stated intent, made itself
indispensable to decision-making in varying contexts, including regional issues and bilateral
relations. Moreover, through a combination of Productive and Institutional power, USA has the
maximum ability to further its strategic intent and safeguards its interests a difficult yet key and
distinguishing strength in an interacting and changing world. The 2008 economic crisis and Snowden
affair have dented US image mostly among its allies but the impact would be limited since the
latters dependence levels are high.
EU
Despite strategic intent in the form of the Lisbon Agenda, EU has been bogged down by the severe
and continuing economic crisis. France and Germany, key members, have made attempts to co-opt
EUs role at various international fora to further their cause. However, EUs collaborative model and
strong espousal of the Western democratic ideals continue to remain its biggest strengths, along
with the strong global ties that are a legacy of the EU members colonial past
Russia
The countrys strong military, geostrategic location and size, Soviet-era relations, appeal as a power
balancer and energy reserves are its key strengths and add to its Institutional and Compulsory
power. However, the Georgian war, Sochi episode and perception as an autocratic state with low
personal freedom, are key weaknesses which also inhibit its ability to attract skilled workface to
continue to drive the economy forward a necessity given its demographic profile unlike the case
with EU and US
Japan
Often overlooked as a Great power, Japans strong economy, Industrial base, association with USA
and foreign aid network (e.g. JICA, which is one of the largest bilateral development organizations)
are its biggest strengths. Regional security and aging population are key issues, though and while
strategic tie-ups with Australia, India and Vietnam have helped address the former to some extent,
its continued economic growth would depend on how it manages the second issue
India
A Vibrant democracy, Indias growing economy and demographic dividend are its key strengths. Its
belief in multilateralism and peaceful co-existence are powerful ideals but negated by its
Protectionism and regional security issue. Though its best positioned to deal with the complexity of
information and interaction, its lack of strategic intent is the biggest limiting factor.
China
Chinas growth or the lack of it would be defined by how it manages information. For instance,
Chinas massive aid programs in Africa get low domestic coverage, perhaps to prevent debates on
such spending. This would certainly change as domestic consumption rises and consumers gain in
importance. Also, despite its economic and military strengths, China often appears insecure about
not only its domestic issues, e.g. minority rights, regional debt and corruption, but also on its global
ambitions. This can only be addressed by greater transparency and information flow until that
happens, China would remain a contender.
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REFERENCES

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page
The Rhyme of History: Lessons of the Great War,
http://www.brookings.edu/research/essays/2013/rhyme-of-history
The Great Powers Then and Now,
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/14/opinion/global/the-great-powers-then-and-now.html
Challenges of the Emerging economies, http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/essay-
on-challenges-faced-by-emerging-economies-a-928113.html
Americas Shrinking Soft Power, http://watchingamerica.com/News/222525/the-shrinking-
of-american-soft-power/
This isnt What World Domination Looks Like,
http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/this-isn-t-what-world-domination-looks-like-
20131107
For EU Leaders, A Political Dare, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/28/opinion/john-
vinocur-for-eu-leaders-a-political-dare.html
Indias lack of strategic culture hobbles its ambition,
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21574511-indias-lack-strategic-culture-hobbles-
its-ambition-be-force-world-can-india
Asias Overlooked Great Power, http://www.cfr.org/japan/asias-overlooked-great-
power/p13144
Russia, the Pretend Great Power, http://thediplomat.com/2013/08/putins-russia-the-
pretend-great-power/
Why Russia wont be a Superpower anytime Soon,
http://blogs.wsj.com/capitaljournal/2009/08/26/do-the-math-why-russia-
won%E2%80%99t-be-a-superpower-anytime-soon/
US Trade Data, http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/index.html
EU Trade Data: http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/
Power in International Relations, Barnett & Duvall


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APPENDIX A

Snapshot of Google Trends data:



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APPENDIX B
STRENGTHS
TYPE USA China EU India Russia Japan
Productiv
e
HIGH.
Espouses
Western
democratic
values and
economic
model, Human
rights, Personal
freedom,
Economic
liberalization,
Capitalism,
Institutionalizati
on all are
powerful and
popular ideas
LOW.
Espouses
Chinese
economic
model,
Poverty
alleviation,
Socialism
and
Multilateral
ism all
China-
centric, low
but
growing
appeal
HIGH.
Espouses
Western
democratic
values and
economic
model,
Human
rights,
Personal
freedom
and
Multilateral
ism all
powerful
and
popular
ideas
MEDIUM.
Espouses
Democratic
values,
Secularism,
IT
revolution,
peaceful
co-
existence
and
Multilateral
ism
powerful
and
powerful
ideas
mostly
LOW.
Espouses
Multilaterali
sm,
Economic
growth and
cooperation
.
HIGH.
Espouses
Democratic
values,
Human
rights,
Multilateral
ism and
Technology
all
popular
and
powerful
ideas
Institutio
nal
HIGH.
Can set or
influence the
agenda at key
global
institutions
such as WEF,
G8, and G20
through official
reps, US
nationals and
US-
educated/influe
nced other
nationals.
USD is the
reserve
currency.
UN P5 Status
MEDIUM.
Being an
emerging
economy, it
is either
directly or
indirectly
on the
agenda and
thus has
the ability
to
influence.
UN P5
Status
HIGH.
Can set or
influence
the agenda
at key
global
institutions
such as
WEF, G8,
G20
through
official reps
and other
individuals
MEDIUM.
Being an
emerging
economy, it
is either
directly or
indirectly
on the
agenda and
thus has
the ability
to
influence.
MEDIUM.
Being an
emerging
economy, it
is either
directly or
indirectly
on the
agenda and
thus has the
ability to
influence.
UN P5
Status
MEDIUM.
Influence
limited to
global
economic
and
political
orders.
Soft HIGH.
E.g. education
system, arts &
culture, cinema,
MNC brands
such as Coke,
McDonalds
MEDIUM.
E.g. MNCs
such as
Lenovo,
Made in
China,
Chinese
students,
diaspora,
cuisine.
HIGH.
E.g.
Colonial
ties,
Personal
freedom,
Tourism
HIGH.
E.g.
Diaspora,
Art &
culture,
Cuisine,
Indian
students,
Tourism
LOW.
E.g. Soviet
ties
HIGH.
E.g. MNC
brands
such as
Toyota,
Sony;
Foreign aid
Compuls HIGH. MEDIUM. MEDIUM. LOW. MEDIUM. MEDIUM.
6

ory E.g. Largest
economy,
Strongest
military with
global reach,
NATO, 123
Nuclear pact
vis--vis India,
Energy
reserves.
E.g. Foreign
aid and
strategic
cooperatio
n, Strong
military,
Foreign
exchange
reserve.
E.g.
Cooperatio
n
privileges,
Strong
military
E.g.
Emerging
economic
and military
power,
Poor
strategic
culture,
Regional
Security
Issues
E.g. Strong
military
with wide
reach,
Energy
reserves.
E.g. Foreign
aid, US
military
support


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APPENDIX C
WEAKNESSES
TYPE USA China EU India Russia Japan
Productive MEDIUM.
E.g. 2008
economic
crisis, military
interventionis
m, Snowden
affair
HIGH.
E.g. poor
record in
human
rights,
political
freedom,
human
rights;
cybercrime
accusations
; Domestic
issues such
as
Corruption,
Regional
debt,
Urban
pollution
MEDIUM
E.g.
Economi
c crisis in
member
states,
role in
Libya
MEDIUM.
E.g. slow
economic
growth,
Corruption
HIGH.
E.g. poor
record in
human and
political
rights,
hegemonic
role in
central Asia
LOW.
E.g. Slow
economic
growth
Institutional MEDIUM.
E.g.
Hegemony
perception
MEDIUM.
E.g. Anti-
capitalism
and reform
perception,
association
with
regimes
such as
Pakistan, N
Korea,
Economic
and trade
Protectioni
sm,
LOW.
E.g.
Divergen
t views
MEDIUM.
E.g. weak
and
confusing
espousal of
non-
alignment,
Protectioni
sm, e.g.
Pharmaceu
tical sector
MEDIUM.
E.g.
association
with regimes
such as
Syria,
support to
unpopular
and
autocratic
leaders
LOW.
Soft MEDIUM.
E.g. Military
adventurism,
Snowden
affair.
HIGH.

E.g.
Support to
regimes
like
Pakistan, N
Korea; low
personal
and
business
freedom;
Territorial
disputes
MEDIUM
E.g.
Perceive
d to be
weak
and
lacking
teeth
and
consensu
s
LOW.
E.g.
Income
inequality,
Corruption
, Religious
intolerance
HIGH.
E.g. Sochi
episode,
Georgian
war, Crony
capitalism
LOW.
E.g.
Dispute
with
China
8

Compulsory MEDIUM.
E.g.
Recovering
economy,
Rising
multilateralis
m, Past
military
interventions
MEDIUM.
E.g. Need
for energy
and export
markets,
Regional
security
issues
HIGH.
Weak
economi
c
situation
HIGH.
E.g. Weak
governme
nt,
Regional
security
issues,
Limited
military
mobility
MEDIUM.
E.g. low
economic
growth,
Regional
security
issues
HIGH.
E.g.
Military
dependen
ce on US