Probability Models and Confidence Intervals

Math 216 Introduction to Statistics

Discrete Probability Models
I. Binomial Probability Model
Used when we want to know how many trials are necessary until we achieve the desired
outcome and are iven a sam!le si"e that is less than or e#ual to $%
&ariables
! ' !robability of success
# ' !robability of failure (1)!*
+ ' number of trials until the first success occurs
n ' sam!le si"e
,ormulas
-+!ected value (mean*.

' n!
Standard /eviation.

' npq
Probability of a success after e+actly + outcomes. P(+* '
x n x
q p
x
n

-+am!le 1
0 national study shows that a!!ro+imately 61 of all !eo!le have ty!e 2)3eative
blood4 In a study of 16 !eo!le5 find.
a4 6he e+!ected number of the 16 !eo!le who have 2)3eative blood
b4 6he standard deviation of this sam!le
c4 6he !robability that none of the 16 have 2)neative blood
d4 6he !robability that 1 or two of the 16 have 2)3eative blood
-+am!le 2
0 statewide study shows that 221 of all !eo!le have been to a minor)leaue baseball
ame this year4 In a study of 21 !eo!le5 find.
a4 6he e+!ected number of the 21 !eo!le who have been to a minor leaue ame
b4 6he standard deviation of this sam!le
c4 6he !robability that e+actly 6 of the 21 have been to a minor leaue ame
d4 6he !robability that $ or 7 of the 21 have been to a minor leaue ame
II. Approximating the Binomial Distribution using the Normal Model
Used when we want to know how many trials are necessary until we achieve the desired
outcome and are iven a sam!le si"e that is reater than $%
Continuity Correction Factor
) Must add or subtract %48 to retain the oriinal value in the !robability distribution4
&ariables
! ' !robability of success
# ' !robability of failure (1)!*
+ ' number of trials until the first success occurs
n ' sam!le si"e
,ormulas
-+!ected value (mean*.

' n!
Standard /eviation.

' npq
Usin " '

x
to find a ")score5 we can convert this to an area under the normal curve
-+am!le 1
0 national study shows that a!!ro+imately 61 of all !eo!le have ty!e 2)3eative
blood4 In a study of 19% !eo!le5 find.
a4 6he e+!ected number of the 19% !eo!le who have 2)3eative blood
b4 6he standard deviation of this sam!le
c4 6he !robability that less than : of the19% have 2)neative blood
d4 6he !robability that between ; and 12 the 19% have 2)3eative blood
-+am!le 2
0 statewide study shows that 221 of all !eo!le have been to a minor)leaue baseball
ame this year4 In a study of 28% !eo!le5 find.
a4 6he e+!ected number of the 28% who have been to a minor leaue ame
b4 6he standard deviation of this sam!le
c4 6he !robability that e+actly 6% of the 28% have been to a minor leaue ame
d4 6he !robability that more than 9% of the 28% have been to a minor leaue
ame
III. Poisson Probability Distribution
) Im!lemented when we only know the averae number of discrete occurrences in a
iven interval
P(+* '
<
x
e
x

where = mean number of occurrences in iven interval
+ ' desired number of outcomes
-+am!les
1* 0 com!uter lab states that the averae number of com!uter viruses in the lab !er
month is 94
a4 =hat is the !robability that the lab observes e+actly 6 viruses in a month>
b4 =hat is the !robability that the lab observes 8 or 6 viruses in a month>
2* 0 warehouse estimates that a!!ro+imately 18 items are recalled each week
a4 =hat is the !robability of e+actly 1$ recalls in a week>
b4 =hat is the !robability of 16 or 19 recalls in a week>
Sam!lin /istributions
Mean Sampling Distribution
Used when we are iven a !o!ulation mean and standard deviation and wish to base the
results of the sam!le of si"e n off of the results of the !o!ulation4
6he central limit theorem states that reardless of the sha!e of the !o!ulation
distribution5 the sam!lin distribution of a mean will be a!!ro+imately normal4 0s a
result of the central limit theorem.
a4
x
=
b4
x

'
n

&ariables

' Po!ulation mean (iven in !roblem*

' Po!ulation standard deviation

+ ' 6est statistic
n ' Sam!le Si"e
,ormulas
Mean of sam!le.
x
=

Sam!lin Standard /eviation of the Mean.
x

'
n

Usin " '

x
x

to find a ")score5 we can convert this to an area under the normal curve
-+am!le 1
6he averae number of days that a ,ord -scort will run without breakin down is 168
with a standard deviation of 18 days4 67 ,ord -scorts were randomly observed for
breakdown4 ?ased u!on the data find.
a4 6he mean and standard deviation of the sam!lin distribution
b4 =hat is the !robability that in the sam!le of 67 -scorts the mean number of
days before a breakdown is between 167 48 and 1674; days>
c4 In the sam!le of 67 -scorts5 what is the !robability that the mean number of
days before a breakdown is less than 16% days>
-+am!le 2
6he de!artmental averae rade on a ?ioloy e+am was shown to be 6$49 with a standard
deviation of 114 0 random sam!le of 1%% students was taken4
a4 =hat is the mean and standard deviation of the sam!lin distribution>
b4 =hat is the !robability that the mean rade of the 1%% students on the ?ioloy
e+am was less than 61>
c4 =hat is the !robability that the mean rade of the 1%% students on the ?ioloy
e+am was between than 68 and 6942>
Proportion Sampling Distributions
Used when we are iven a !o!ulation !ro!ortion and wish to base the results of the
sam!le of si"e n off of the results of the !o!ulation4
&ariables
! ' !robability of success
# ' !robability of failure (1)!*
+ ' !robability to test
n ' sam!le si"e
,ormulas
Mean of the sam!le !ro!ortion.
@
p
p =
Sam!lin Standard /eviation of the Pro!ortion.
@
p
=

pq
n
Usin " '
@
@
p
p
x

to find a ")score5 we can convert this to an area under the normal curve
-+am!le 1
1* 0 recent survey of Maryland residents shows that 191 believe the 2rioles will finish
in third !lace in their division4 In a sam!le of 1$% residents find.
a4 6he mean and standard deviation of the sam!le !ro!ortion
b4 6he !robability that less than 2% of the 1$% believe the 2rioles will finish in
third !lace
c4 6he !robability that more than 28 of the 1$% believe the 2rioles will finish in
third !lace
-+am!le 2
0 national survey of &irinia drivers showed that ;%1 find traffic conditions to be
unsatisfactory on I):84 In a sam!le of 7%% drivers find.
a4 6he mean and standard deviation of the sam!le !ro!ortion
b4 6he !robability that between than $%% and $18 of the 7%% find drivin
conditions unsatisfactory
c4 6he !robability that more than $8% of the 7%% find drivin conditions to be
unsatisfactory
Confidence Intervals (CI*
0 confidence interval is a rane of values com!uted uses a sam!le4 6he confidence
interval is an estimate where the true !o!ulation mean or !ro!ortion falls within with a
s!ecific level of certainty4
Confidence Interal for Means! Population Standard Deiation is "no#n
) CI for mean uses the followin critical values for
A
z based u!on the confidence
level.
:%1 14678
:81 14:6
::1 24898
) Po!ulation standard deviation must be known
Ste!s for com!utin a CI for one mean when !o!ulation standard deviation is known.
,ind
A z
based u!on confidence level
M- '
n
z

A

Com!ute the CI by
n
z x CI

=
A
-+am!le
0 sam!le of 228 students showed an averae BP0 of 24864 6he !o!ulation standard
deviation of all students is known to be %4$:4
) Com!ute the marin of error at ::1 confidence
) Create a ::1 CI for the true BP0 of all students4 -+!lain what it means4
) Create a :%1 CI for the true BP0 of all students4 -+!lain what it means4
Confidence Interal for $ne Proportion
:%1 14678
:81 14:6
::1 24898
Ste!s for com!utin CI of one !ro!ortion
,ind
A z
based u!on confidence level
Marin of -rror ' M- '
n
pq
z A
p n
s z p CI = A
1
-+am!le
0 recent study !erformed by CCC showed that of $%% randomly selected beinnin
alebra students5 69 did not !ass4 ?ased on this data5 answer the followin.
a4 Com!ute the marin of error at :%1 confidence
b4 Construct a :%1 CI for the true !ro!ortion of student who fail beinnin
alebra4 -+!lain what the CI means
c4 Construct a ::1 CI for the true !ro!ortion of student who fail beinnin
alebra5 e+!lain what it means and com!are it to
:%1
CI
Confidence Interals for Means! Population Standard Deiation is %n&no#n
) CI for mean where !o!ulation standard deviation unknown uses the 6)/istribution to
enerate the critical value
A
( * t
) 6he mean and standard deviation of the sam!le must be iven
)
A
t de!ends u!on the confidence level and the derees of freedom (df*
) df ' n ) 1
Ste!s for com!utin a CI for one mean when !o!ulation standard deviation is unknown.
1* ,ind
A
t from Student)6 table
2* M- '
x
s t
A
where
n
s
s
x
=
$* Com!ute the CI by
x
s t x CI =
A
-+am!le 1
0 sam!le of 1$ !eo!le showed an averae slee! time of 94$ hours4 =hile the !o!ulation
standard deviation is unknown5 the sam!le standard deviation was found to be 14: hours4
) Com!ute the marin of error at :81 confidence4
) Create a :81 CI for the true mean slee! time of all !eo!le4 -+!lain
what it means4
) Create a ::1 CI for the true mean slee! time of all !eo!le4 -+!lain
what it means4
-+am!le 2
0 sam!le of 21 cats showed an averae weiht of 124$1 lbs4 =hile the !o!ulation
standard deviation is unknown5 the sam!le standard deviation was found to be $ lbs4
) Com!ute the marin of error at :%1 confidence4
) Create a :%1 CI for the true weiht of cats4 -+!lain what it means4
) Create a ::1 CI for the true weiht of cats4 -+!lain what it means4
'ypothesis (esting
0 method of determinin if an established !o!ulation mean or !ro!ortion holds true with
res!ect to a collection sam!le data
6he null hy!othesis is the what is true or what is believed to be true about a !o!ulation
6he alternative hy!othesis is what is suested to be true by sam!le data
Cy!otheses 6estin of 2ne Pro!ortion
,ormulas D &ariables

p
) Po!ulation !ro!ortion
! Sam!le !ro!ortion
p

'
n
pq

p
p p
z

=
P)&alue
0l!ha (sinificance* levels
) 0l!ha levels tell us the cutoff !oint for acce!tin a null hy!othesis
) If the we are !erformin a two)tailed test5 we have to divide the al!ha level by
two to encom!ass both tails of the normal distribution
) 0 low al!ha level will acce!t more !)values (i4e4 more null hy!otheses*
,ail to reEect and reEectin the null hy!othesis
) =hen the !)value is in the reEect reion5 we reEect the null hy!othesis and acce!t
the alternative4
) =hen the !)value is in the fail to reEect reion we fail to reEect the null hy!othesis
and reEect the alternative hy!othesis
Ste!s for 2ne Pro!ortion Cy!othesis testin
1* /etermine the null and 0lternative Cy!otheses
2* Collect variables D setu! the distribution
$* ,ind the !)value usin standard ")score methods
7* ,ail to reEect or reEect the null hy!othesis based on the !)value and the al!ha level4
State your conclusion and answer what has been asked4
-+am!le 1
0 nationwide study of rocery store oods stated that about 81 of all food !roducts were
outdated4 0t the =eis market in 0bindon5 11 of 818 randomly selected food items were
deemed outdated4 Is there sufficient evidence to suest that fewer items are outdated at
the =eis Market in 0bindon than the national averae> Fet us test at the 81 sinificance
level4
-+am!le 2
In 2%%%5 a study of CCC alebra students says that 681 of them !ass on their first
attem!t4 In 2%%75 a survey of 78% alebra students re!orted that 2;9 !assed on their
first attem!t4 Is there sufficient evidence to suest that the number of students that
!assed in 2%%7 is different than in 2%%%> Fet us test at the 1%1 sinificance level4
'ypothesis (esting of (#o Proportions
Cy!othesis 6estin with 6wo Pro!ortions
1* /efine the rou!s and state the hy!othesis
2* Collect &ariables D construct distribution
$* ,ind the standard deviation of the sam!le
7* ,ind the ")score and the !)value
8* Use the !)value to state a conclusion
,ormulas
2
2 2
1
1 1
2 1
n
q p
n
q p
p p
+ =

" '
2 1
2 1
p p
p p

P)&alue
-+am!le 1
In rou! of $88 randomly selected hih school females5 1%$ elected to take mathematics
as an elective their senior year4 In a rou! of 8%1 randomly selected hih school males5
17; decided to take mathematics as an elective in their senior year4 Is there evidence to
suest more males take math as an elective> 6est at the 1%1 sinificance level4
-+am!le 2
In a study of :%8 randomly selected children aed 18)195 1:; say they watch $ or more
hours of television !er day4 In a study of 8%$ randomly selected children aed 12)175 :9
re!orted they watch $ or more hours of television !er day4 Is there a sinificant difference
between ae and watchin television in teenaers> 6est at the 81 sinificance level4
Cy!othesis testin of one Mean
I* =hen !o!ulation standard deviation is known
II* =hen sam!le standard deviation is known
If the !o!ulation standard deviation is unknown we must use the 6)/istribution to obtain
a critical alue4 6he critical value tells us the cutoff level for reEectin the null
hy!othesis4
Population Standard Deiation is "no#n
&ariables needed

) Po!ulation mean
x Sam!le mean
G Sam!le S/
n Sam!le si"e

Sinificance level
,ormula for test value
Value P
n
x
z

Ste!s for 2ne Mean Cy!othesis testin when Po!ulation Standard /eviation is Hnown
1* /etermine the null and alternative hy!othesis
2* Collect variables D construct distribution
$* Com!ute the ")score and !)value
7* IeEect or fail to reEect the null4 State your conclusion4
-+am!le 1
0 national study shows that in 2%%6 the averae !rice of asoline was J2481 !er allon4
6he !o!ulation standard deviation was shown to be J%4614 0 2%%9 random study of ;1
Maryland as stations showed the averae !rice of asoline !er allon to be J249$4 Is
there sinificant evidence to suest that the averae !rice of a allon of asoline is more
in Maryland in 2%%9> 6est at the 1%1 sinificance level4
-+am!le 2
0 statewide study shows the averae Maryland S06 score to be :$% with a !o!ulation
standard deviation of 18%4 0 random sam!le of 228 &irinia S06 scores shows the
averae S06 score to be ;:84 Is there sinificant evidence to suest that the mean
&irinia S06 score is lower than the mean S06 score of Maryland> 6est at the 81
sinificance level4
Population Standard Deiation is %n&no#n
&ariables 3eeded

) Po!ulation mean
x Sam!le mean
s Sam!le S/
n Sam!le si"e
df /erees of freedom (n)1*

Sinificance level
t
A
Critical value (from table*
,ormula for test value
n
s
x
t

=

Ste!s for 2ne Mean Cy!othesis testin when Po!ulation Standard /eviation is Unknown
1*
/etermine the null and alternative hy!otheses
2*
Calculate x and x
s
by calculator4 0lso find df4
$*
Collect other variables D construct distribution
7*
,ind t
A
(critical value* and t (test value*
8*
,ail to reEect or reEect the null hy!othesis based on the t)value and t
A
-+am!le 1
In 1::;5 the averae !rice for bananas was 81 cents !er !ound4 In 2%%$5 the followin
18 sam!le !rices (in cents* were obtained from local markets.
8% 8$ 88 8$ 8% 89 8; 87 7; 79 8% 89 89 81 88
Is there sinificant evidence to suest that the averae retail !rice of bananas is
different than 81 cents !er !ound> 6est at the 81 sinificance level4
-+am!le 2
0 1::8 study of 7)year collee raduates showed that the averae raduate had 1$2
credit hours4 6he followin 12 sam!les of credit hours were recorded from Maryland
collee students concernin their credit hours u!on raduation.
1$9 1$8 181 122 1$1 171 188 1$2 12$ 1$% 178 1$%
Is there sinificant evidence to suest that the averae number of credit hours for
7)year raduates is more than 1$2 credit hours> 6est at the 11 sinificance level4
Cy!othesis 6est of 6wo Means
I. Small) Independent Samples #ith un&no#n but e*ual population deiations
,ormulas
Pooled Standard /eviation.
2
* *( 1 ( * *( 1 (
2 1
2
2 2
2
1 1
+
+
=
n n
s n s n
s
p
-stimator of Standard /eviation.
2 1
1 1
2 1
n n
s S
p
x x
+ =

6est &alue.
2 1
2 1
x x
S
x x
t

=
/erees of freedom (df* ' 2
2 1
+ n n
-+am!le
0 car sales manaer records that in Kune 28 cars were sold with an averae !rice of
J1658%% and a standard deviation of J25%%%4 In /ecember 2% cars were sold with an
averae !rice of J195$%% and a standard deviation of J156%%4 6he two !o!ulations are
normally distributed and the standard deviations are unknown but e#ual4
Is there sinificant evidence to suest that the averae !rice of cars in Kune is less than
the averae !rice of cars in /ecember> 6est at the 81 sinificance level4
II. Small) Independent Samples #ith un&no#n and une*ual population deiations
,ormulas
/erees of ,reedom.
1
* (
1
* (
* ( * (
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
2
2
2
1
2
1

+
=
n
n
s
n
n
s
n
s
n
s
df
rounded do#n+
-stimator of Standard /eviation.
2
2
2
1
2
1
* ( * (
2 1
n
s
n
s
S
x x
+ =

6est &alue.
2 1
2 1
x x
S
x x
t

=
-+am!le
6he Cihway 0dministration shows that a study of 17 random cars on I):8 went an
averae of 9$ m!h with a standard deviation of 8 m!h4 0 study of 2% randomly selected
cars on I);$ showed an averae s!eed of 6:48 m!h with a standard deviation of 7 m!h4
6he two !o!ulations are normally distributed and the standard deviations are unknown
but une#ual4 Is there sinificant evidence to suest that the averae s!eed on the two
hihways is different> 6est at the 11 sinificance level4
III. Paired Samples
&ariables
=
d
s
sam!le standard deviation of the !aired differences
n ' number of !aired sam!les
=
A
t critical value
,ormulas
( )
1
2
2

=


n
n
d
d
s
d

value test
n
s
x x
t
d

=
2 1

-+am!le
0 com!any claims that its 12)week !roram sinificantly reduces weiht4 6he followin
7 sam!les were taken showin the beforeLafter weihts of 7 randomly selected customers.
?efore 1;% 1:8 199 221
0fter 1;$ 1;9 161 2%7
Is there sinificant evidence to suest that the weihts of the customers is sinificantly
less than when they bean the 12)week !roram> 6est at the 11 sinificance level4
6he Chi)S#uare /istribution
Chi S#uare /istribution ,ormulas
df ' k 1 where k is the number of cateories
E
E O
2
2
* (
=
2 ' observed value
- ' n! ' -+!ected &alue
6hree 6y!es of Chi S#uare tests
1* 6est to see if sam!le results follow !o!ulation
2* Boodness of fit ) 6est to see if sam!les have same !robability of occurrin
$* 6est for Inde!endence or Comoeneity
AA If we are testin the second case5 then we deduce that ! '
k
1
Ste!s for Chi)S#uare 6ests
1* /etermine the null and 0lternative Cy!otheses
2* Collect variables D construct distribution
$* Calculate
A 2
* ( (critical value*
7* ,ind
2
(test value*
8* ,ail to reEect or reEect the null hy!othesis based on the
2
)value and
A 2
* (
-+am!le 1 ) Sam!le Pro!ortions follow Po!ulation Pro!ortions
0 recent study shows the !ro!ortions !eo!le answered to the #uestion M=here does most
of my stress come from at work>N
/emand of Kob ) 871
Co)=orkers 2%1
?oss 1%1
Fayoff ) ;1
2ther reasons ;1
0 study of ;%% random em!loyees was conducted askin the same #uestion4 6he
followin were the results.
/emand Co)workers ?oss Fayoff 2ther
7%7 1;$ :7 ;% $:
Is there sinificant evidence to suest that this distribution is different than the
!o!ulation study> 6est at the 11 sinificance level4
-+am!le 2 ) Boodness of ,it 6est
Sean ?ollins of ?el 0ir5 a local beverae establishment5 wants to know if they should
chane the way they are schedulin their em!loyees4 6hey are currently schedulin the
same number of hours on each day of the week4 6he followin re!resents the number of
!atrons in a !articular week.
Monday 6uesday =ednesday 6hursday ,riday
:2 91 68 ;$ ;:
Is there sinificant evidence to suest that the number of !atrons is not e#ual for
each day of the week and that they should modify the schedule> 6est at the 81
sinificance level4
Chi)S#uare 6est for Inde!endence
) 6ests to determine if two or more cateories are inde!endent or de!endent4
Ste!s to !erformin the test of Inde!endence
a4 /etermine the null and 0lternative Cy!otheses
b4 ,ind - for all cateories where
Total Grand
Total Column Total Row
E
* *( (
=
c4 Calculate
A 2
* ( usin

=
E
E O
2
2
* (

d4 ,ind /erees of ,reedom usin df ' (rows 1*(columns 1*
e4 ,ind
2
(test value*
f4 ,ail to reEect or reEect the null hy!othesis based on the
2
)value and
A 2
* (
-+am!le
0 study wished to determine if ender is inde!endent of buyin name)brand !roducts4
6he followin shows the results of 9%% !eo!le surveyed concernin their ender and
!reference.

Is there evidence to suest that ender and !reference are inde!endent> Perform a test at
the 81 sinificance level4
3ame ?rand Beneric
Men 19% 178
=omen 1;2 2%$