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THE BLOOMBERG/DES MOINES REGISTER IOWA POLL
LIKELY 2014 VOTERS

Study #2106 SELZER & COMPANY
1,000 Iowa likely voters in the 2014 general election October 3-8, 2014
Margin of error: 3.1 percentage points 1,651 contacts weighted by age, sex,
1,107 Iowa likely voters in the 2016 general election and congressional district
Margin of error: 2.9 percentage points

**NoteFeb-14 (n=461) and Sep-14 (n=546) percentages based on subsets of 2014 likely voters, so they differ from topline percentages
reported in the original studies methodology documents.**

A. Are you a resident of the state of Iowa?


100 Yes Continue
- No
Terminate and do not count toward any quota; do not collect age and sex data
- Not sure

1. How likely is it you will vote in the November general election for governor, U.S. Senate and other offices
will you definitely vote, probably vote, might or might not vote, or probably not vote, or have you already cast a
ballot in early voting?

15 Already voted
Continue
85 Definitely vote
- Probably vote
Terminate, but capture age, sex, county, and 2016 vote information
- Might or might not vote
- Probably not vote
- Refused/not sure

2. In general, do you think things in the nation are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the
wrong track?




Right
direction
Wrong
track
Not
sure

Oct-14 n=1,000 24 67 9
Sep-14 n=546 25 66 9
Feb-14 n=461 23 69 8

3. What about here in Iowa? Do you think things in the state are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten
off on the wrong track?




Right
direction
Wrong
track
Not
sure

Oct-14 n=1,000 56 33 11
Sep-14 n=546 56 35 9
Feb-14 n=461 54 38 9


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4. Which of the following do you see as the most important issue for the next Congress to address? (Read list.
Rotate.)

12 Immigration
15 Health care
14 The federal deficit
13 Terrorism
6 Taxes
19 Unemployment and jobs
7 Climate change
6 Foreign policy
2 Other (VOL) (specify:)
1 None of these (VOL)
5 Not sure

5a.







5b.
(If definitely vote, ask:) If the election for U.S. senator were held today and the candidates listed on the ballot
were [Bruce Braley for the Democrats] and [Joni Ernst for the Republicans], for whom would you vote?

(If already voted, ask:) In the election for U.S. senator, for whom did you vote[Democrat Bruce Braley] or
[Republican Joni Ernst]? (If not sure, ask:) Do you just not want to tell, or do you not remember? (If decline
or dont remember, AC=4 in Q.6a and b and AC = 3 in Q.6c and skip to Q.7.)
(If name a candidate (AC=1,2,3 in Q.6a), fill in response for Q.6a, skip b, and code AC=1 for c.)

(Ask only of Definite voters who do not name a candidate in Q.6aAC=4): Toward which candidate
would you say you are leaning, or support the most?

(Rotate which candidate is asked first.)

Different question wording

First
Choice
Leaning
(Based on all) Total Sep-14

n=546

Bruce Braley for the Democrats 44 2 45.5 38
Joni Ernst for the Republicans 45 2 46.7 44
Someone else (VOL) 3 - 3.4 6
Not sure 8 4 4.4 12

c. Would you say your mind is made up to vote for (CANDIDATE NAMED IN Q.6a) or could you still
be persuaded to vote for another candidate?

(Asked only of likely voters who named a candidate as first choice. By coding those who have already voted who had
chosen a candidate as having their minds made up and adding back in those who made no first choice, based on all
likely voters. Margin of error for Braley supporters: 5.2 percentage points in Oct-14; 6.8 percentage points in Sep-
14. Margin of error for Hatch supporters: 5.2 percentage points in Oct-14; 6.2 percentage points in Sep-14.)

Sep-14


Likely
2014
Voters
Braley
supporters
Ernst
supporters
Likely
2014
Voters
Braley
supporters
Ernst
supporters

n=1,000 n=458 n=473 n=546 n=206 n=247

Mind is made up 80 85 85 59 72 69
Could still be persuaded to
vote for another candidate 15 14 15

27 27 29
Not sure 1 1 - 1 1 2
No first choice 4 n/a n/a 13 n/a n/a

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6. Im going to mention some elected officials. For each, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the
way each is handling his job. (Rotate list.)
Approve Disapprove
Not
Sure

A. Terry Branstad as governor Oct-14 60 36 4
Sep-14 54 42 4
Feb-14 63 32 5

B. Barack Obama as president Oct-14 39 56 5
Sep-14 41 56 3
Feb-14 36 61 3

C. Tom Harkin as U.S. senator Oct-14 55 34 11
Sep-14 57 34 9

D. Chuck Grassley as U.S. senator Oct-14 65 27 8
Sep-14 66 27 7

7. I'm going to mention the names of some people and organizations in the news. For each name I read, please tell
me if your feelings toward the person are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very
unfavorable. If you dont know the person, just say so. (Record dont know as not sure. Rotate list.).


Fav Unf
Very
Favorable
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure

A. Bruce Braley, a U.S. representative
and Democrat running for U.S. Senate
Oct-14 44 43 17 27 20 23 13
Sep-14 42 42 17 25 20 22 16
Jun-13* 29 17 10 19 9 8 54

B. Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida Oct-14 32 38 7 25 21 17 30

C. Joni Ernst, a state senator and
Republican running for U.S. Senate
Oct-14 47 43 19 28 17 26 10
Sep-14 45 44 21 24 15 29 11
Jun-13* 8 5 2 6 3 2 87

D. Bill Clinton, former president of the
United States Oct-14 57 39 26 31 22 17 4

E. Jack Hatch, a state senator and
Democrat running for governor
Oct-14 38 35 12 26 19 16 27
Sep-14 34 37 9 25 18 19 29
Jun-13

11 11 2 9 7 4 78

F. Joe Biden, vice president of the United
States Oct-14 43 51 16 27 21 30 6

G. Terry Branstad, the current
Republican governor running for
reelection
Oct-14 60 37 26 34 18 19 3
Sep-14 55 43 25 30 20 23 2
Jun-13

56 38 23 33 19 19 6

H. Barack Obama, president of the
United States Oct-14 44 54 20 24 16 38 2

I. The Republican Party
Oct-14 46 49 12 34 26 23 5

J. The Democratic Party
Oct-14 45 49 17 28 25 24 6

K. Hillary Clinton, former secretary of
state Oct-14 47 49 21 26 19 30 4

L. Sarah Palin, former governor of
Alaska and former Republican
nominee for vice president Oct-14 37 57 14 23 18 39 6

M. Rand Paul, U.S. senator from
Kentucky Oct-14 39 33 11 28 17 16 28

N. Mitt Romney, former governor of
Oct-14 48 45 17 31 24 21 7
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Massachusetts and former Republican
nominee for president

*Jun-13 question wording for Braley and Ernst: Now, Im going to mention some people considering running for Tom Harkins
U.S. Senate seat. For eachBruce Braley, U.S. Congressman. Joni Ernst, a state senator.

Jun-13 question wording for Branstad and Hatch: Now, Im going to mention some people who are being talked about as possible
candidates for governor in 2014. For eachTerry Branstad, governor of Iowa. Jack Hatch, a state senator.

8.

Im going to mention some pairs of positions on a number of issues. For each, tell me which is closer to your
viewthe first or the second view. (Rotate list.)

1st Coded by candidate: B = Braley E = Ernst 2nd
Not
Sure

A. 50 Raise the minimum wage (B) OR Leave the minimum wage where it is
and let businesses decide what works
(E)
48 2
B. 55 Repeal Obamacare (E) OR Leave Obamacare largely the way it is
(B)
39 6
C. 52 Push harder to reform the
financial industry to protect
consumers (B)
OR Roll back reform of the financial
industry, which went too far (E)
32 16
D. 34 Focus tax reform on tax cuts to
working families and small
businesses (B)
OR Make the entire tax code flatter and
simpler for everyone (E)
63 3
E. 31 Add private savings accounts to
Social Security for younger
workers (E)
OR Keep Social Security the way it is now,
with only minor tweaks (B)
61 8
F. 55 Address man-made climate
change because it is real and is a
threat (B)
OR Do not take action on so-called climate
change as it is just a cyclical
phenomenon (E)
40 5
G. 45 Define marriage as between one
man and one woman (E)
OR Recognize equal marriage rights for
same-sex couples (B)
50 5
H. 56 Keep abortion legal (B) OR Outlaw abortion in all but the narrowest
exceptions
38 6
I. 55 Extend greater protection of the
constitutional right to bear arms
(E)
OR Make gun laws more restrictive to keep
guns out of the hands of criminals (B)
41 4
J. 40 Move swiftly to pass
immigration reform including a
pathway to citizenship for those
in the country illegally (B)
OR Wait to move on immigration matters
until the border with Mexico is
completely secured (E)
52 8

9. Some ads running on Iowa TV stations have been produced and paid for by organizations tied to the Koch
brothers. How much would you say you know about the Koch brothers and their stands on issuesa lot, a little,
or nothing at all?

26 A lot
41 A little
32 Nothing at all
1 Not sure


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10. Im going to mention some people who support Bruce Braley or Joni Ernst. For each supporter, tell me if you
think this helps or hurts the candidates. Lets start with (BRUCE BRALEY/JONI ERNST). Does (NAME ON
LIST) do more to help or more to hurt the candidate? (Rotate list.)
More to help More to hurt
Not
Sure


Joni Ernst:
A. Sarah Palin 30 56 14
B. The Koch brothers 21 50 29
C. Terry Branstad 67 21 12
D. Chuck Grassley 69 17 14

Bruce Braley:
E. Hillary Clinton 52 36 12
F. Barack Obama 36 53 11
G. Tom Harkin 60 23 17
H. Bill Clinton 65 22 13

11. Both the Republican and the Democratic parties want to get the economy growing and to create jobs. Which of
the following do you think is the better approach to do that? (Rotate options.)

49 Focus tax cuts on the middle class, raise the minimum wage, and invest in infrastructure to create new
jobs
42 Reduce government spending, cut growth in Medicare and Social Security spending, cut taxes for
everyone, and create more tax incentives for businesses to invest in new jobs
9 Not sure

12. Turning to the general election for president in 2016, if the election were held today and the candidates were
[HILLARY CLINTON FOR THE DEMOCRATS] and [NAME FROM LIST for the Republicans], for whom
would you vote[HILLARY CLINTON/NAME ON LIST] or for someone else?

(Rotate list. Also rotate order of asking Clinton versus other candidates every other interview. Based on those who say they will
definitely vote in the 2016 general election; n=1,107.)

Based on 2016 likely voters only Clinton Republican
Other/would
not vote
(VOL)
Not
Sure

A. Jeb Bush, former governor from Florida 46 39 10 5
B. Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey 43 38 12 7
C. Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas 45 35 11 9
D. Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky 44 41 8 7

E. Paul Ryan, U.S. representative from Wisconsin and
former Republican nominee for vice president 44 43 7 6

F. Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and
former Republican nominee for president 43 44 8 5
G. Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida 45 37 10 8

13. At any time since 2007, have you considered yourself a supporter of Barack Obama? (If yes, ask:) How would
you describe yourself now? (Read list of AC=1-4. Based on 1,000 likely voters in the 2014 general election.)

27 Yes, I still support him as much as I ever did
18 Yes, I still support him but not as much as before
5 Yes, he disappointed me and I no longer support him
2 Yes, I am angry and now actively oppose him
48 No, I never supported him
- Not sure

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14. If the 2012 presidential election were held today, would you vote for [Barack Obama for the Democrats], [Mitt
Romney for the Republicans], for someone else, or would you not vote? (Rotate candidate names.)

2014 LV
Obama
voters 2012
n=1,000 n=459

39 58 Barack Obama
41 33 Mitt Romney
16 4 Someone else
2 2 Would not vote
2 3 Not sure

[Middle East]
15. Turning now to the conflict in Iraq and Syria involving ISIS, the Islamic State: President Obama has begun
military operations with air force bombings. He has been very clear he is ruling out any U.S. troops to engage in
a ground war. Some want to leave that option open. What is your thought? Do you think the U.S. should or
should not rule out having American boots on the ground in Iraq or Syria?

32 Should rule out boots on the ground
59 Should not rule out boots on the ground
9 Not sure

16. Which of the following better reflects your thinking about U.S. involvement in other countries to combat serious
terrorism threats: (Rotate options.)

52 As a global military leader, the U.S. must take the lead in combating terrorism, even if it means acting
alone, because it is dangerous for the U.S. to let terror groups grow
36 The U.S. is overextended from military actions over the last 13 years that have not turned out wellit is
dangerous to the U.S. economy to enter new conflicts
12 Not sure

17. Compared to five years ago, would you say you are better off financially, worse off, or about the same?

29 Better off
27 Worse off
43 About the same
1 Not sure

18. Do you think it has been to Iowas advantage or disadvantage to have a U.S. senator from each political party?

53 Advantage
25 Disadvantage
11 Doesnt matter (VOL)
11 Not sure

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These final questions are asked just to see what cross-section of Iowans we are interviewing.


100a. What is your age? (RECORD ACTUAL AGE AND CODE WITH APPROPRIATE AGE GROUP. IF
RESPONDENT REFUSES, OFFER AGE GROUPS.)



b. (CODE PROPER CATEGORY :)

2014 LV 2016 LV

4 8 Under 25
12 15 25 to 34
15 15 35 to 44
21 20 45 to 54
21 19 55 to 64
26 23 65 and over
1 - Refused/not sure

101. In the 2012 election for president, did you vote for [Barack Obama for the Democrats], [Mitt Romney for the
Republicans], for someone else, or did you not vote? (Rotate candidate names.)

45 Barack Obama
42 Mitt Romney
6 Someone else
4 Did not vote
3 Not sure

102. How likely is it you will vote in the November 2016 general election for president and other officeswill you
definitely vote, probably vote, might or might not vote, or probably not vote?

(Asked of all contacts including those who did not qualify as 2014 likely voters; n=1,651.)

64 Definitely vote
16 Probably vote
6 Might or might not vote
11 Probably not vote
3 Refused/not sure

103. In politics as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or independent?

31 Republican
30 Democrat
36 Independent
2 Other (VOL)
1 Refused/not sure

b. Do you consider yourself part of the (REPUBLICAN/DEMOCRAT) base? (Asked only of those who self-
identify as either Republican or Democrat; n=547.)


All Reps Dems


69 65 75 Yes
24 27 19 No
7 8 6 Not sure



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104. Regardless of any party affiliation, do you consider yourself a supporter of the Tea Party movement?

27 Yes
62 No
11 Refused/not sure

105. Which of the following best describes your religious beliefsRoman Catholic, Protestant, some other kind of
Christian, Jewish, Muslim, other, or none?

18 Roman Catholic
40 Protestant
24 Some other kind of Christian
- Jewish
- Muslim
1 Other
12 None
5 Refused/not sure

106. (Ask all.) Would you describe yourself as a "born again" or evangelical Christian, or not?

34 Yes
60 No
6 Not sure

107. Do you live in a city, a town, or the country?

43 City
34 Town
21 Country
2 Refused/not sure


108. With what racial or ethnic group do you identify mostWhite, Black, Hispanic, Asian, or some other group?

90 White
2 Black
1 Hispanic
1 Asian
- Other
6 Refused/not sure

109. Is your total annual household income before taxes above or below $50,000 per year?

Above ASK b
Below ASK c

b. Is it above or below $70,000 per year? 37 Above ($70,000+)
17 Below ($50,000-$69,999)
c. Is it above or below $30,000 per year? 16 Above ($30,000-$49,999)
17 Below (<$30,000)
13 Refused/not sure


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110a. If a reporter from Bloomberg News or The Des Moines Register reporter were to contact you, would you be
willing to talk more about your responses to this public poll and perhaps be quoted in a news story, or would
you prefer not?

30 Yes, willing to talk more
70 No, prefer not

b. If yes, ask first name: _________________________________

c. Verify phone number: ________________________________

d. Email address ___________________________________________

111. Type of telephone

34 Cell phone only
66 Landline

112. Sex:

2014 LV 2016 LV

52 50 Male
48 50 Female

113a. Record county from sample, if provided
113b. What county do you live in? (Use FIPS code. Assign to proper Congressional District in Q.114b using
supplied county-to-CD spreadsheet. If refused/not sure, code as 999.)

114a. Record congressional district from sample !
114b. Record congressional district determined from Q.113b

2014 LV 2016 LV

25 25 CD1
25 25 CD2
26 27 CD3
24 23 CD4
- - Refused/not sure in county question

115. Record which sample was used for allcompletes and terminates

51 RDD landline
49 Cell phone sample

Thats all the questions I have. Thank you for your time.