Preparing for elections with

carrot and stick

By Jehan Perera-October 13, 2014
During the Uva provincial council election last
month President Rajapaksa thanked the visiting Chinese President for
having bestoed economic assistance on the country and reduced the
price of petrol and electricity! "his time there as no Chinese President to
share the credit ith! But President #ahinda Rajapaksa directed that the
price of cooking gas should be reduced! "he government is aare that
economic considerations loom large in the minds of the majority of the
electorate! During his ongoing visit to Jaffna and the $orthern Province%
the President is making major offerings to the people% of land% jobs and
subsidi&ed motor cycles% to mention but a fe! Despite the high level of
economic groth reported by the government% economic hardship badly
affects the life of the masses of the people! 'f the economic concessions at
the Uva elections ere a precedent% the package of economic benefits to
the electorate at this time points to imminent elections!
't is said that astrologers have arned the President that his star is on the
ane and ill ane faster after #arch of ne(t year! "his is not a
particularly stellar prediction! #ost political commentators in media and
general life are in agreement that the government)s popularity is on the
decline% hich is not surprising as the Rajapaksa-led government has been
in office for nearly ten years! "he results of the Uva Provincial Council
election ere a confirmation of the fall in popularity! *hether it is ritten
in the stars or not% the sooner a presidential election is held the better it
ill be for the government! "his makes early January% hich is the earliest
in hich an election can be held% the most likely time! +oever% there is
one serious problem that arises% and that is the pre-planned and agreed
upon visit by Pope ,rancis to -ri .anka for hich the Catholic Church has
been making preparations!
't ould be a major disappointment to the Catholic community if the visit
does not go ahead due to the government)s electoral compulsions% and this
can be politically disadvantageous to the government! "here is reportedly
a one month indo before and after elections that the /atican ants% so
that a papal visit does not figure in national political discourse! 'f the
government is mindful of this concern then the ne(t earliest it can have
the elections are in #arch! *hile any delay in holding the elections ould
tend to be unfavorable to the government on account of its declining
popularity% there is an important factor that can come into play to boost
the government)s electoral prospects! "his is the #arch session of the U$
+uman Rights Council in 0eneva at hich the report of the U$
investigative team into ar crimes in -ri .anka ill be taken up!
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"he holding of a presidential election in the looming shado of the U$+RC
meeting in 0eneva can become a plus point of electoral mobili&ation to the
government! "he U$ investigation has been described by the government
as an international conspiracy against itself and the unity of the country!
#any if not most of the majority -inhalese population ill subscribe to this
notion! "herefore a presidential election campaign is held just before the
outcome of the U$+RC meeting in 0eneva is finali&ed% and ith an a(e
threatening to fall upon the government% it ill be able to mobili&e the
nationalism of the people to its electoral advantage! "he 3uestion once
again% as it has been in all of the post-ar elections% is hether
nationalism ill get priority over those other issues at hich the
government is at a disadvantage!
"he close electoral contest that the government e(perienced at the Uva
elections ould alert it to the fact that economic concessions by
themselves ill not suffice to address the concerns of the electorate! 't
may therefore be more than a mere coincidence that the President)s
announcement of a reduction in the price of cooking gas came parallel ith
an anti-$02 poster campaign! 2n the same day that the President)s
concession to the economic problems faced by the people as announced%
posters appeared on the streets of major tons asking 4*hy is the $02
0ang afraid of the President54 1s the anser as not provided for in the
posters% it can reasonably be surmised that these posters ill be folloed
in the succeeding days by others hich ill provide ansers!
"he attack on $02s reflects the concerns of the government leadership!
*ith the passage of more than five years since the end of the ar the
government is finding it increasingly difficult to justify the government)s
approach to governance on the basis of national security! 2ne of the fe
sectors in society illing to challenge the government has been the $02
sector! #any of the top leaders of the government have had close
associations ith the $02s! -ome ere members of $02s% either as
volunteers or as staff! 2thers orked alongside $02s in campaigning
against previous governments! President Rajapaksa is ell knon for his
abortive bid as an opposition parliamentarian to carry files of human rights
cases to the U$ +uman Rights Council in 0eneva hich as foiled by alert
immigration officials! 1s in the past% ith previous governments% the $02
sector continues to be illing to challenge the government!
"*2 "R1C6-
"he government appears to be folloing a to track strategy in dealing
ith the $02s! #any if not most $02s do positive ork at community
level hich has given them credibility ith the people and made them into
opinion formers ho can influence the ay the people vote! 'n fact these
community level $02 leaders have more credibility than the government)s
on agents at the community level% such as -amurdhi coordinators% ho
act in politically partisan and non-transparent ays! "he government)s
first track% and the more constructive one% is to commence engaging in
dialogue ith the $02s! "he dialogue so far has been ith a small group
of $02s and has led to a positive interaction hich is still in its incipient
stage! "hey have already raised issues of having to get prior approval
from government authorities to do their ork and also of government
surveillance of their activities% hich intimidates civil society participants
and stymies the discussion of issues of governance and human rights!
2n the other hand% the media has reported that the government is
planning to amend the /oluntary -ocial -ervice 2rganisations 7Registration
and -upervision8 1ct under hich most $02s are registered! 1 final copy
has no been passed by the .egal Draftsman and ill shortly be submitted
to Cabinet! 't is reported that under the amendments% $02s ill have to
register annually ith the -ecretariat or lose the right to receive foreign
funds and conduct local monetary transactions! "hey ill also have to
submit reports and sign #emorandums of Understanding ith the
0overnment! 1ccording to the government)s $02 -ecretariat% the
government ill allo to eeks for public observations once other routine
procedures ere completed! "he draft has been discussed ith relevant
officials including those from the #inistries of Justice and -ocial -ervices%
-tate 'ntelligence and the Central Bank! But it has not been discussed
ith the $02 sector! "he $02 -ecretariat is 3uoted as saying that 4"here
is no need to ask the $02s because this is a la that is being enacted in
the interests of the country!4
"oday there is uncertainty regarding the mandate civil society has in -ri
.anka! "he government recently issued a circular hich is ambiguously
orded and is potentially highly restrictive! "his circular appeared to be
targeted at the advocacy and human rights $02s% hich ork ith high
profile groups such as the media and the international community! "here
are currently to opinions ithin the $02 community! -ome believe that
$02s need to engage ith the government in order to create space for
themselves to do their ork! "hey also hold to the position that civil
society organisations should not affiliate themselves to political parties% or
the government of the day% and that they must remain independent!
+oever% others believe that civil society needs to ork together ith the
opposition and stand up against the government to achieve political
change! 't is this latter position that is serving to strengthen the
government)s second track% hich appears to be one of discrediting $02s
and driving them out of the public sphere during the election campaign
period to begin ith!
Posted by Thavam