Droning On

Drones
(unmanned aerial vehicles, UAVs) have been prominent in the news lately. Amazon rolled out its
plan for
almost-instantaneous home delivery using drones. The NY Mets got in trouble with the FAA for
using a drone to take overhead pictures during spring training (their response
was that pop flies went higher than the photo drone), and a California medical
marijuana dispenser proposed using drones to deliver his medical herbs to
patients homes. Drones are one of those
technologies that have potential for major social and economic advances, and in
the short run, they can radically change the War on Drugs, speeding the move to
the end of Prohibition.
Many
of the world-changing technologies affect transportation or communication
printing, railroads and steamships, telegraph, and motion pictures are good
examples. The contrasts between the life
of a pre-Gutenberg European and a nineteenth century American, eating beef
shipped from the West and dressed in New England clothing while reading a
morning paper from a high-speed steam press is startling. But these first generation
technologies
underwent transformations even more amazing.
First
they went from being bulk carriers to serving individuals. The telegraph, with central offices
and
trained intermediaries for every transactions was replaced by the telephone
under the direct control of the user.
Trains were superseded by automobiles and trucks and 1,000-passenger
ocean liners by smaller, faster, more flexible airplanes. Movies were shoved aside by radio and
television.
Leaps
forward became gigantic bounds when they combined with each other. Movies were a
combination of photography and
electric lights and motors; and in turn, television combined radio and
movies. When these early jumps joined
with the leaps of the late twentieth century computers, space flight, and the
internet the leaps became revolutions.
Modern weather forecasting was a child of the telegraph, but only when
it was combined with satellite visualization, hurricane airplanes, computerized
radars, and broadband communications did it become a truly reliable part of
daily life and business. The modern
smart phone bears little resemblance with Grandmas black, wired to the wall,
one-to-a-house rotary dial model. Even
tv dinners zapped in microwave ovens far surpass the canned foods developed for
Napoleons armies.
Drones
stand on top of four legs of these modern revolutions: transportation,
communication, networking, and space technology. The Amazon proposal is a good
example. Amazon would receive orders by mobile
telephone or the internet and process payment through networking computerized
banks. Final delivery to the purchaser
would be by drone guided by satellite-based GPS navigation. Other recent examples are wide-
spread. Photographers are using drones for everything
from the Mets publicity pictures mentioned above to new angles on wedding
spreads. Farmers use them to inspect
their crops and herd livestock. Soon
they will replace manned aircraft for crop straying. Wildlife biologists do animal and habitat
surveys quicker and more accurately than by hand. They could often replace television news
helicopters which have horrible safety records.
Drones are beginning to appear in law enforcement contexts. The full scope of their use is
almost
unimaginable.
Drones
could cause major changes in the War on Drugs in the next few years, making it
less dangerous and violent and hastening the end of Prohibition. Drones actually have a long
history in drug
trafficking. In the 1980s stories
surfaced of Mexican drug smugglers using radio-controlled model airplanes to
move kilogram-sized loads of cocaine across the Rio Grande into Texas. They could not be
spotted on radar and could
not be seen or heard from more than a few hundred feet away. They could land on very small
open spots and
then left to sit until the receivers were sure they had not been detected. With radio controllers
on both ends of the
flight they could be sent back for reuse, but were cheap enough to be
disposable.
Over
time those model airplanes have morphed into both large military drones with
payloads measured in tons and small computerized tools that can go anywhere;
both have the capability to remove most of the risks of drug trafficking. Drug traffickers face
risks at three times:
when crossing the American border, while carrying drugs in transit, and while
making an actual sale. Drones could
minimize all three of these risks.
Just
like the model airplanes, large military-style drones (costing less than the
jet airplanes or even large trucks now used) could cross the U. S. borders from
Canada, Mexico, or anywhere along the sea coast with little risk of detection;
and if detected or intercepted, the smugglers not at the scene would avoid
arrest. Those same drones, flying low
below radar coverage, away from major roads, and landing in isolated areas,
could ghost shipments within the country as well.
Street-corner
sales, both to the consumer and small-scale wholesale is where the small drones
will come into their own. Flying just
above street-light level and below rooflines, they will be practically
undetectable. Guided from a third- or
fourth-floor window, they can deliver to a single customer almost instantaneously. To the extent
payment can be mediated
electronically via cell phone, no actual seller-buyer contact will be
necessary. These transactions will
eliminate undercover purchases and sting buys since the purchaser would have no
contact with, or ability to identify, the seller. Even street surveillance by police would be
of little use.
The
gains to police from the use of drones will be of much less utility. They are already using large
drones for
border inspection, but those will be of less value against smuggler drones than
they currently are against surface transportation or manned aircraft. Since small drones will
move drug dealers off
of the streets, small police drones will have little to see. Use against grow-houses or processing
plants
are indoors and will continue to require the police to follow warrant
procedure.
Drones
should appear in drug transactions quickly, and their use will expand even
faster. They will have the effect of
shifting the advantage from the police to the drug marketers, making
enforcement harder. The War on Drugs
will be even more futile.
The
effect of introducing drones into the drug market will grow from a buzz to a
drone to an uproar a blare that will help trumpet the end of Prohibition.
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