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Commercial in Confidence

Risk Managing a bid


Gordon Hyland
BD Manager
Risk Decisions Ltd
Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
CROs want:
Increased profitability
Reputation building activity
Increased market share



Speed to key decisions and market
Robust processes leading to high quality data
Trust and certainty in cost and schedule
Innovation





Sponsors want:
With risk management all of these can be mutually inclusive

Pain, Pain vs. Pain Gain sharing
Realistic and achievable targets
Delivering expected outcomes more often
Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
Risk managing a bid
Sponsor
RFP
Bid
Bid
Defence
Contract
negotiation
meeting
Scenario analysis Pre-prepared risk register
Identify additional risks
Sensitivity analysis
Analyse risks in proposal
Check / adjust schedule
Check / adjust pricing
Response determination
Mobilise resources

Risk register from bid
Review mitigation plan &
agree risk ownership
Scenario analysis
Refresh baselines
Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
Risk managing a bid
Sponsor
RFP
Bid
Bid
Defence
Contract
negotiation
meeting
Scenario analysis Pre-prepared risk register
Identify additional risks
Sensitivity analysis
Analyse risks in proposal
Check / adjust schedule
Check / adjust pricing
Response determination
Mobilise resources
Risk register from bid
Review mitigation plan &
agree risk ownership
Scenario analysis
Refresh baselines
Are we in or out?
Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
Risk managing a bid:
Identify risks on key tasks and assumptions
Description, cause, consequence
Risk based schedule analysis
What confidence do you have for delivering on time?
What can you do to improve your confidence?
Focus on key risks that drive the critical path
Develop your risk response
Determine mitigation actions
Cost the actions and build into the base cost




Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
A simple Gantt chart from a project plan showing tasks on the critical path excluding any risk
information.
This task appears most crucial and
as having the greatest impact on
potential late delivery
Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
A Gantt chart for the same project plan. Showing critical tasks on the path including the addition
of risk information. Note how the cruciality of activities have changed.
This task is no longer the most
crucial. Therefore we should focus
effort on other activities.
These tasks now have a greater
impact on delivering to schedule.
So focus is required here.
Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
Scenario Analysis - Sample Outputs
22 week deadline, 10 sites, What is the probability of success?
22 weeks falls at 50% P
level
Very low P of
< 20 weeks
In some cases deadline
could missed by several
weeks
Weeks
Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
Scenario Analysis - Sample Outputs
22 week deadline, 12 sites, What is the probability of success?
Probability at 22 weeks
increased to 90%
Probability of late finish
reduced
Weeks
Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
Risk managing a bid:
Analyse costs
What contingency budget do you need?
What price to bid?
Understand the remaining exposure



Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
B
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s
t

c
a
s
e

W
o
r
s
t

c
a
s
e

B
u
d
g
e
t

Budget Exposure Profit
Pricing analysis
More Competitive but less profit Fewer wins but higher profit
B
i
d

Losses?
Pain / Gain Share?
Negotiation?
Insurance?
Project
Cost
17
Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
Risk managing a bid
Sponsor
RFP
Bid
Bid
Defence
Contract
negotiation
meeting
Scenario analysis Pre-prepared risk register
Identify additional risks
Sensitivity analysis
Analyse risks in proposal
Check / adjust schedule
Check / adjust pricing
Risk register from bid
Review mitigation plan &
agree risk ownership
Scenario analysis
Refresh baselines
Response determination
Mobilise resources
Increased confidence in
price and schedule
Are we in or out?
Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
Scenario Analysis
Longer
Timescale
Tight scope
Quality
Cost Schedule
19
Higher cost
Tight scope
Scope
Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
Option 3
Scenario Analysis
Option 1
Option 2
Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
Risk managing a bid
Sponsor
RFP
Bid
Bid
Defence
Contract
negotiation
meeting
Scenario analysis Pre-prepared risk register
Identify additional risks
Sensitivity analysis
Analyse risks in proposal
Check / adjust schedule
Check / adjust pricing
Risk register from bid
Review mitigation plan &
agree risk ownership
Scenario analysis
Refresh baselines
Response determination
Mobilise resources
Are we in or out?
Increased confidence in
price and schedule
Demonstrate
confidence, credibility
and innovation
Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
Contract negotiation meeting
Do your risk registers
Plan your actions
Check your costs & schedule
APPLY CHANGES
Learn and create a virtuous circle for future projects

Is this a confrontational approach?
Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence
Risk managing a bid
Sponsor
RFP
Bid
Bid
Defence
Contract
negotiation
meeting
Scenario analysis Pre-prepared risk register
Identify additional risks
Sensitivity analysis
Analyse risks in proposal
Check / adjust schedule
Check / adjust pricing
Risk register from bid
Review mitigation plan &
agree risk ownership
Scenario analysis
Refresh baselines
Response determination
Mobilise resources
Are we in or out?
Increased confidence in
price and schedule
Demonstrate our
confidence, credibility
and innovation
Tailor the offer to key
drivers
Risk Decisions, 2012
Commercial in Confidence

Identify which trials to prioritise focussing resources to achieve the best chances of success
Create opportunity to make better informed strategic decisions
Protect budgets, profit margins and enhance reputation


Easier portfolio resource planning and allocation
More effective budget management for projects
Reduce cost and time wasted dealing with change requests


Improve trust & confidence in targets
Risks dealt with in the most appropriate place
Help projects complete on time and to budget
For the CRO
For sponsors
For all
24
Summary of benefits
Commercial in Confidence