World at Risk

1 Global hazards
Hazard A Hazard is something that has the potential to threaten human life and property
Disaster = A natural hazard becomes a disaster when it has a severe impact of a human population
Risk = the likelihood that humans will be seriously affected by hazards
Vulnerability = How susceptible a population is to the damage caused by hazards
Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability
Capacity to cope
Benefits vs Costs fertile soils on flood plain in Bangladesh and the side of Mount Vesuvius
Without the greenhouse effect the earth would be -18
O
C
2 Global hazard trends
Floods have increased since 1980 e.g. Mississippi floods 2011and are due to extreme rainfall, mid-
latitude depressions and linked to tropical cyclones
Coastal flooding due to storm surges form Hurricane Katerina was driven by cyclones and low
pressure
Cyclones ocean surface temperatures have increase by 0.6
O
C increasing evaporation and El Nino
supressed tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Caribbean but La Nina like in 2005 creates
favourable conditions for hurricanes
Droughts = prolonged periods of abnormally low rainfall and in the Sahal region of Africa it causes
famine, desertification as well as seasonally arid regions like central North America
By 2050 70% of people will live in urban areas putting pressure on land and there
Increasing world population from 7 to 9.3billion in 2050 and 95% of growth will be in the developing
world means more people will be living in areas more at risk
Increasing vulnerable population 23% of people live in poverty and lower capacity to cope
Corrupt governments like Myanmar in 2004 after the Tsunami prevented aid
Hurricane in Haiti 2004 caused more damage due to deforestation for charcoal
Anthropogenic global warming has increased the number of hazards
270ppm of carbon in the atmosphere in 1800 now 390ppm


3 Global hazard patterns
Cyclones develop between 5
o
C and 30
o
C north and south of the Equator and the surface
temperature must be 26.5
o
C and move east-west wind e.g. trade winds
In the Sahal, droughts occur due to persistent anticyclones that block the passage of depressions
The areas most at risk are densely populated and urbanised flood plains like the Mississippi and
deforestation accelerates surface run off
Earthquakes and volcanos our along plate boundaries due to convection currents in the mantle
Nazca plate is forced under the South American Plate.
Landslides and avalanches occur between 30 and 45
O
and occur in regions of fold mountains
4 Climate change and its causes
Emissions have drastically increased since 1750 at the start of the industrial revolution
Long term fluctuations between glacial lasting 100,000 years and interglacial lasting 10,000 years
Medium term 13,000 years ago there was 1,000 years of cool conditions
Dendrochronology can reliably go back 10,000 years
Short term - risen rapidly since 1970s
Weather records stared in 1861
Milankovich Cycles
- Over 41,000 years the earths orbit fluctuates between 22 and 24.5 vary the
amount of energy latitudes receives
- Over 96,000 years Eccentricity of the earths orbit varies from near circular to elliptical
changing the amount of energy the earth receives
- precession of the equinoxes changes over 22,000 years the intensity of the seasons7

Sunspots are darker areas on that increase solar output and occur in 11 year cycles
Krakatoa in 1883 led to a 1
O
C drop in global temperatures as dust acts as a condensation nuclei
5 Impacts of global warming
The tipping point = a critical threshold in a natural system that once exceeded will trigger abrupt and
irreversible changes
It will cause eustatic sea level rise which is where the volume of water in the sea increases
If all the Ice sheets melted the sea would rise by 60-80m
The sea by rise 1m by 2100
It will threaten places like Tuvalu and Micronesia in the South Pacific increasing the intensity and
frequency of tropical storm and threaten food production due to salt water contamination
MEDCs like the Netherlands which is 50% polders are densely populated and a 1m sea level rise will
cost 12billion to defend but can cope due to a GDP of $770 billion
70% of Bangladesh is a flood plain and has a high population density of 1000per km
2
so increasing risk
as there is a greater likelihood of humans coming into contact with hazards
Permafrost covers 20% of the earth and is a 25 times better insulator than CO2
6 Coping with climate change
Mitigation = strategies that involve taking action to reduce the change that has occurred
Adaptation = stratergies to reduce the impact that changes are having
Kyoto Protocol in 1997 said $100 billion would be given to developing countries by 2020 to reduce
emissions
Local strategies like the London congestion charge has been operational since 2003 and Borris bikes
encourages more public and environmentally friendly transport
Afforestation reduces surface run off
In Chicago and New York they have planted vegetation of streets and roofs to reduce the urban
heat island effect
International agreements like the Kyoto protocol re complex only 35 out of the 192 countries agreed
to cuts and developing countries like China which together account for 60% emission where exempt
as it would hamper economic development. Canada and Japan withdrew without sanctions.
Think local act global approach is better and changes will be incremental not gradual
7 The Challenges of global hazards for the future
Poverty means poorer people have limited access to food due to their weak purchasing and
bargaining power causing shortages of staple foods leading to malnutrition
Water demand will rise due to increased consumerism in developing counties
1.3 billion People rely on glacier fed rivers such as the Ganges
2/3 of the Himalayas glaciers are expected to disappear by 2060 reducing Chinas crop yield by 1/3
Rising sea levels cause salination aquifers, 60% of South West Bangladesh is arable land
Risk is increasing due to rapid population growth 95% which is the developing world
Only 2.8% of energy comes from renewable sources but it is expensive 3 Georges cost $US522 billion