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This report examines national Latino voter participation trends in u.s. Midterm elections. It also examines the geographic distribution of Latino voters across the nation's 435 congressional districts. The report also examines attitudes about gun control, marijuana use, the minimum wage and abortion.
This report examines national Latino voter participation trends in u.s. Midterm elections. It also examines the geographic distribution of Latino voters across the nation's 435 congressional districts. The report also examines attitudes about gun control, marijuana use, the minimum wage and abortion.
This report examines national Latino voter participation trends in u.s. Midterm elections. It also examines the geographic distribution of Latino voters across the nation's 435 congressional districts. The report also examines attitudes about gun control, marijuana use, the minimum wage and abortion.
ON THIS REPORT: Mark Hugo Lopez, Director of Hispanic Research Molly Rohal, Communications Associate 202.419.4372 www.pewresearch.org
RECOMMENDED CITATION: Lopez, Mark Hugo, Jens Manuel Krogstad, Eileen Patten and Ana Gonzalez-Barrera. 2014. Latino Voters and the 2014 Midterm Elections; Geography, Close Races and Views of Social Issues. Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center, October.
NUMBERS, FACTS AND TRENDS SHAPING THE WORLD 1 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org About This Report This report examines national Latino voter participation trends in U.S. midterm elections. It also examines the geographic distribution of Latino voters across the nations 435 congressional districts and across the 50 states and the District of Columbia, with a focus on places with close Congressional, Senate and gubernatorial elections this year. The report also examines national Latino attitudes about gun control, marijuana use, the minimum wage and abortion. All four issues are part of ballot initiatives in many states this year. Accompanying this report are state profiles of Latino eligible voters in 42 states and the District of Columbia. 1 Also accompanying this report is an interactive map and sortable table showing key characteristics of Latino voters in the 50 states and the District of Columbia, as well as an interactive map and sortable table showing the number of Latino eligible voters in all 435 Congressional Districts of the current 113 th Congress and the District of Columbia. The data for this report are from four main sources. The first is the November Voting and Registration Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS). The CPS is a monthly survey of about 55,000 households conducted by the Census Bureau for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The CPS is representative of the non-institutionalized population of the U.S. It does not include data on the voting behavior of enlisted military personnel and those who are institutionalized. The November Voting and Registration Supplement of the CPS is one of the richest sources of information available about the characteristics of voters. It is conducted after Election Day and relies on survey respondent self-reports of voting and voter registration. In addition to the November Voting and Registration Supplement to the Current Population Survey, this report also uses the August 2014 Current Population Survey to estimate current characteristics of the nations Latino eligible voters. The second data source is the 2012 American Community Survey. 2 The 2012 ACS provides detailed geographic, demographic and economic characteristics for Latino and non-Latino eligible voters and is the main source for the state-level analysis of this report and the accompanying state profiles of Latino eligible voters.
1 There are eight states (Alaska, Maine, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and West Virginia) whose Hispanic eligible voter samples (U.S. citizens, ages 18 and older) in the 2012 American Community Survey are not large enough to generate reliable estimates.
2 The data source is the 1% sample of the 2012 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) as provided by the University of Minnesota http://usa.ipums.org/usa. 2 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Latino attitudes on social issues data are from the following Pew Research Center surveys: (1) the January-March 2014 Political Polarization and Typology Survey of 10,013 adults, including 902 Latino adults; (2) the January 2014 Political Survey of 1,504 adults, including 162 Latino adults; and (3) the February 2014 Political Survey of 1,821 adults, including 216 Latino adults. The surveys were conducted in English and Spanish on both landline and cellular telephones. This report was written by Mark Hugo Lopez, Jens Manuel Krogstad, Eileen Patten and Ana Gonzalez-Barrera. Analysis for the report was provided by Anna Brown, Gonzalez-Barrera, Lopez, and Patten. Brown and Patten wrote the accompanying state profiles. Claudia Deane and Michael Dimock provided editorial guidance and comments. Jeffrey Passel provided analysis on the Latino eligible voter population in each Congressional District. The interactive maps and sortable tables were developed by Russell Heimlich and Michael Piccorossi. Michael Keegan provided additional graphic support and editorial guidance. Patten and Brown number-checked the report and Gonzalez-Barrera number-checked the interactive maps and tables. Bruce Drake was the copy editor. Michael Suh provided web support. A Note on Terminology The terms Latino and Hispanic are used interchangeably in this report. References to other races and ethnicities are to the non-Hispanic components of those populations. Asian does not include Pacific Islanders. Eligible voters refers to persons ages 18 and older who are U.S. citizens. For findings based on state voter registration data, registered voters refers to tallies of registered voters reported by state election officials. Voters are those who say they voted in the Voting and Registration Supplement of the CPS. Voter turnout rate is the share of eligible voters who say they voted. Competitive or close races for House, Senate and Gubernatorial seats were identified by the Pew Research Center using ratings as of October 15 from The Cook Political Report, Real Clear Politics and CNN. For Senate races, FiveThirtyEight.com was also used. States or Congressional districts identified as a toss-up or competitive race by all available sources is identified as a close race in this report. 3 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. It does not take policy positions. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. The center studies U.S. politics and policy views; media and journalism; internet and technology; religion and public life; Hispanic trends; global attitudes and U.S. social and demo- graphic trends. All of the centers reports are available at www.pewresearch.org. Pew Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts. Michael Dimock, President Elizabeth Mueller Gross, Vice President Robyn Tomlin, Chief Digital Officer Andrew Kohut, Founding Director
Pew Research Center 2014 4 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
Table of Contents About This Report 1 A Note on Terminology 2 About Pew Research Center 3 Overview 5 Lagging Latino Voter Participation in Midterm Elections 7 Latino Public Opinion and 2014 State Ballot Initiatives 9 Chapter 1: The Geography of Latino Voters 13 Latino Voters in Congressional Districts 13 Latino Voters in the States 14 Chapter 2: Latinos Views on Selected 2014 Ballot Measure Issues 18 Marijuana Legalization 18 Gun Rights and Restrictions 20 Abortion 21 Raising the Minimum Wage 22 Chapter 3: A Profile of Latino Eligible Voters 24 References 26 Appendix A: Additional Charts and Maps 29 Appendix B: Additional Tables 31
5 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org 4.7 7.9 13.6 Senate
House Governor BY Mark Hugo Lopez, Jens Manuel Krogstad, Eileen Patten, AND Ana Gonzalez-Barrera Overview A record 25.2 million Latinos are eligible to vote in the 2014 midterm elections, making up, for the first time, 11% of all eligible voters nationwide. But despite a growing national presence, in many states with close Senate and gubernatorial races this year, Latinos make up a smaller share of eligible voters, according to an analysis of Census Bureau data by the Pew Research Center. 3
Since 2010, the number of Hispanic eligible voters has increased by 3.9 million. Their share among eligible voters nationally is also on the rise, up from 10.1% in 2010 and 8.6% in 2006 (Lopez, 2011), reflecting the relatively faster growth of the Hispanic electorate compared with other groups. Yet in the eight states with close Senate races, 4
just 4.7% of eligible voters on average are Latinos. Among those states, Latinos make up less than 5% of eligible voters in six. Only in Colorado does the 14.2% Latino share among eligible voters exceed the 10.7% national average. Kansas is the only other state where the Latino share
3 Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. Not all eligible voters are registered to vote.
4 States with close U.S. Senate races were identified by the Pew Research Center based on state ratings as of October 15, 2014 as published by the Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, CNN and Real Clear Politics. These states are Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and North Carolina. FIGURE 1 A Record Number of Latinos are Eligible to Vote in millions of U.S. citizens ages 18 or older But Latinos are a Small Share of Eligible Voters in Key 2014 Races Average % of Latino among eligible voters across all competitive races for
Note: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. Sources: For the top chart, for 1986 to 2010, Pew Research Center tabulations of the Current Population Survey November Supplements; for 2014, Pew Research Center tabulations of the August Current Population Survey. For the bottom chart, Pew Research Center tabulations of American FactFinder (2012 ACS 1- year estimates, tables B05003 and B05003I) PEW RESEARCH CENTER 7.5 8.1 10.3 12.4 14.5 17.3 21.3 25.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 6 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org among eligible voters exceeds 5%. 5 As a result, the impact of Latino voters in determining which party controls the U.S. Senate may not be as large as might be expected given their growing electoral and demographic presence nationwide. In other 2014 Senate racesnone of which are competitiveLatinos make up more than 10% of eligible voters in just three: New Mexico, where Latinos make up 40.1% of eligible voters; Texas, where 27.4% of eligible voters are Latino; and New Jersey, where Latinos make up 12.8% of eligible voters. Eligible voters are U.S. citizen adults. Not all eligible voters are registered to vote, or turn out to vote in an election. Nonetheless, the number of Hispanic eligible voters and their share among a states eligible voters provides insight into the potential impact of the Hispanic vote. So far that impact has been muted by the fact that Hispanic voter turnout rates in midterm elections and presidential elections have lagged other racial and ethnic groups (Krogstad, 2014). For example, in 2010, while 31.2% of Hispanic eligible voters voted, 48.6% of white and 44.0% of black eligible voters turned out on Election Day. In the case of this years 14 competitive House races, the share of eligible voters that are Hispanic is, on average, 13.6% slightly exceeding Hispanics 10.7% share nationwide. 6
But this masks the large variability in the percentage of Hispanics across the competitive Congressional districts. For example, in six districts, fewer than 5% of eligible voters are Hispanic. At the other end of the spectrum, in Floridas 26 th Congressional district and Californias 26 th
Congressional district, Hispanics make up 62% and 31% of eligible voters, respectively. Fully 96%
5 In North Carolina, voter registration statistics show that Latinos are an even smaller share of registered voters1.9% of registered voters are Latinos, compared with 3.1% among eligible voters.
6 Districts with close U.S. House of Representative races were identified by the Pew Research Center based on state ratings as of October 15, 2014 as published by the Cook Political Report, CNN and Real Clear Politics. There are 14 such districts (see table 2). TABLE 1 Latino Share of Eligible Voters in States with Competitive 2014 Senate Races
Latino eligible voters (in thousands) % Latino among eligible voters All U.S. 23,632 10.7
State
Colorado 524 14.2 Kansas 123 6.0 Alaska 25 4.8 North Carolina 214 3.1 Arkansas 63 2.9 Louisiana 94 2.8 Iowa 61 2.7 Kentucky 51 1.6 Note: States are those with competitive Senate races as indicated by The Cook Report, Real Clear Politics, FiveThirtyEight and CNN on Oct. 15, 2014. Latinos are of any race. Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2012 American Community Survey (1% IPUMS sample); For Alaska, Pew Research Center tabulations of American FactFinder (2012 ACS 1-year estimates, tables B05003 and B05003I) PEW RESEARCH CENTER 7 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org of Hispanic eligible voters, and 97% of all eligible voters, live in districts without a close Congressional race. Republicans currently hold 233 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and appear unlikely to lose control of the House. Among this years 14 toss-up races, most incumbents are Democrats. In the 36 states with gubernatorial races this year, nine have close races. 7 Just as with competitive U.S. Senate races, Hispanics on average account for a smaller share of eligible voters in these races than they do nationally. Overall, 7.9% of eligible voters in these states are Hispanic, compared with a 10.7% share nationally. Among these states, three have Hispanic eligible voter shares above 10% (Florida with 17.1%, Colorado with 14.2% and Connecticut with 10.3%) and three have voter shares below 5% (Wisconsin 3.2%, Michigan 2.9% and Maine 1.0%). In each midterm election since 1974, the number of Latino voters reached a new record high, largely reflecting the communitys fast population growth. 8 However, the share of those Latinos who actually vote on Election Daythe voter turnout ratehas lagged significantly behind other racial and ethnic groups.
7 States with battleground gubernatorial races were identified by the Pew Research Center based on state ratings as of October 15, 2014 as published by the Cook Political Report, CNN and Real Clear Politics. These 9 states are Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan and Wisconsin.
8 According to Pew Research Center analysis of the Current Population Survey November Supplements, the number of Hispanic voters in midterm elections was 1.4 million in 1974; 1.6 million in 1978; 2.2 million in 1982; 2.9 million in 1986; 2.9 million in 1990; 3.5 million in 1994; 4.1 million in 1998; 4.5 million in 2002; 5.6 million in 2006 and 6.6 million in 2010. TABLE 2 Latino Share of Eligible Voters in States with Competitive 2014 U.S. House of Representative Races
Latino eligible voters (in thousands) % Latino among eligible voters All U.S. 23,632 10.7
Congressional District
Florida-26 282 62.3 California-26 138 30.9 Arizona-2 105 19.6 Arizona-1 85 16.4 California-7 60 12.3 Colorado-6 59 12.1 California-52 61 12.0 Illinois-10 50 11.1 Florida-2 25 4.6 Iowa-3 17 3.0 Illinois-12 11 2.0 New Hampshire-1 10 2.0 Minnesota-8 5 1.0 West Virginia-3 3 0.7 Note: Congressional Districts shown are those with competitive House races as indicated by The Cook Report, Real Clear Politics and CNN on Oct. 15, 2014. Latinos are of any race. Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of American FactFinder (2012 ACS 1-year estimates, tables B05003 and B05003I); For All U.S., Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2012 American Community Survey (1% IPUMS sample) PEW RESEARCH CENTER 8 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org During the 2010 midterm election, a record 6.6 million Hispanics voted, representing a turnout rate of 31.2%. But more than twice as many Hispanics14.7 million could have voted but did not (Lopez, 2011). By comparison, voter turnout rates were higher among blacks (44%) and whites (48.6%). Low voter participation rates among Hispanics are due to many factors. First, the relative youth of the Hispanic population may impact overall Hispanic voter turnout rates. Young people turn out at rates lower than that of older eligible voters. This is true among Hispanics (Lopez, 2011; Lopez and Gonzalez- Barrera, 2013) just as it is among other racial and ethnic groups (CIRCLE, 2013). For Hispanics, however, young people are a larger share of eligible voters than they are among other groups. In 2014, 33% of Hispanic eligible voters are ages 18 to 29. By comparison, among white eligible voters, 18% are in that age group. And, among blacks, that share is 25%. Among Asians, 21% are between ages 18 and 29. Hispanic youth will also be the main driver of growth in the number of Hispanic eligible voters nationally in the coming decades. Currently, some 800,000 U.S. born Hispanics turn 18 each year, with one million or more expected to reach adulthood annually by 2024. And by 2030, the number of Hispanic FIGURE 2 Latino Voter Turnout Rates Consistently Below Whites, Blacks in Midterm Elections % of eligible voters that voted in each off year election
Note: Hispanics are of any race. Whites, blacks and Asians include only non-Hispanics. Data for non-Hispanic Asians were not available in 1986. Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the Current Population Survey November Supplements PEW RESEARCH CENTER Terminology Voting Age Population: Persons ages 18 and older. Voting Eligible Population: Persons ages 18 and older who are U.S. citizens. Registered Voter Population: Persons who say they are registered to vote. Voter Population or Voter Turnout: Persons who say they voted Voter Turnout Rate: Share of the voting eligible population who say they voted. 50.7 48.6 45.6 44.0 40.2 31.0 38.0 31.2 20 30 40 50 60 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 White Black Asian Hispanic % 9 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org eligible voters is projected to top more than 40 million (Taylor, Gonzalez-Barrera, Passel and Lopez, 2012). Second, the political competitiveness of states where Latino voters live also is important in determining Latino voter turnout rates. For example, California and Texas contain nearly half (46.4%) of all Latino eligible voters, but neither has been a battleground state in recent presidential elections. As a result, nearly half of Latino voters do not get the level of attention from campaigns that Latino voters who live in battleground states receive. And this year, neither state has a close Senate race. Voters in several states this year are facing state ballot initiatives on issues such as gun control, marijuana legalization, abortion and the minimum wage. On some of these issues, national Latino public opinion differs from that of the general U.S. public, but on others, Latinos views are no different. On the issue of gun control, Hispanic registered voters are more likely to support gun control measures than all U.S. registered voters. About six-in-ten Hispanic registered voters (62%) say controlling gun ownership is more important than protecting the right of Americans to own guns, while 36% say the opposite. By comparison, 45% of all U.S. registered voters favor controlling gun ownership while a 53% majority favors protecting gun rights. Hispanics, overall, are less likely to be gun owners than the general U.S. public20% versus 34% (Morin, 2014). This year, voters in two statesAlabama and Washingtonare considering questions on gun ownership. 9 Both are states where Latinos are a relatively small share of eligible voters1.6% and 6.1% respectively. A measure to legalize marijuana for medicinal purposes is on the ballot in Florida, a state with the fifth-highest share (17.1%) of Hispanic eligible voters. Nationally, Hispanic registered voters are split on the question of marijuana legalizationabout half (49%) say that marijuana should be made legal while a similar 48% share say it should not be made legal. By comparison, among U.S. registered voters, the balance tilts toward legalizing over not legalizing by a margin of 53% to 44% (Pew Research Center, 2014d).
9 In Alabama, voters will decide whether to define the right to bear arms as a fundamental right in their state constitution. In Washington, there are two competing measuresthe first would prevent confiscation of firearms without due process and prevent the state from implementing background checks unless a federal standard is implemented and the second would require background checks for all firearm purchases, including private sales. 10 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org 36 53 62 45 Hispanic Total U.S. Protecting the right of Americans to own guns Controlling gun ownership 48 44 49 53 Hispanic Total U.S. Illegal Legal The share of Hispanic registered voters (and all U.S. registered voters) that approves of some legalization rises when both medicinal and recreational use are considered. For example, 47% of Hispanic registered voters approve of legalization for only medicinal use and 34% approve of legalization for recreational use. Combined, 81% approve of some form of legalization. Overall, Hispanics are less likely to say they have ever used marijuana than other Americans. One-third (33%) of Hispanics say this compared with 50% of whites and 49% of blacks (Pew Research Center, 2014b). Measures that could restrict access to abortion services and certain birth control methods are on the ballot in Colorado, North Dakota and Tennessee.
In Colorado, Hispanics make up 14.2% of eligible voters, compared with just 2% in Tennessee and 1.8% in North Dakota. On abortion, Hispanic registered voters nationally are split on the issue48% say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 44% say it should be illegal in all or most cases. Among all registered voters, the balance is tilted the other way as a larger share thinks abortion should be legal than illegal (52% vs. 42%). 10
Voters in Alaska, Arkansas, Nebraska and South Dakotastates where Hispanics make up a small share of eligible voterswill decide whether to raise the minimum wage in their states. Hispanics, and all Americans, generally support an increase in the federal minimum wage, with 84% of Hispanics in favor of raising the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10 an hour, compared with 73% of all
10 Over the last decade among all Hispanics, views on abortion have not changed much with between 51% and 57% saying abortion should be illegal in all or most cases (Pew Research Center, 2014c). FIGURE 3 Latino Voters Views on Gun Control % saying is more important Legalizing Marijuana % saying the use of marijuana should be made
Abortion % saying abortion should be
Increasing the Minimum Wage* % saying they increasing the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10 an hour Note: *For minimum wage, results are for all Latinos. Dont know/Refused responses not shown. Sources: Pew Research Center Political Polarization and Typology Survey, Jan. 23-Feb. 16, 2014, Phase A (n=169 Latino registered voters) and Phase B (n=182); For minimum wage item, Pew Research Center survey, Jan. 15-19, 2014, n=162 Latino adults PEW RESEARCH CENTER 44 42 48 52 Hispanic Total U.S. Illegal in all or most cases Legal in all or most cases 13 25 84 73 Hispanic Total U.S. Oppose Favor 11 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Americans. At 54.1 million, Latinos are the nations largest minority group and growing fast (Brown, 2014). Latinos have also strongly supported Democratic presidential candidates in recent elections, giving President Barack Obama 71% of their vote in 2012 compared with 27% to Republican Mitt Romney (Lopez and Taylor, 2012). Latino registered voters also tend to affiliate with the Democratic Party. In 2012, 70% of Latino registered voters said they identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party (Lopez and Gonzalez-Barrera, 2012). This report explores electoral participation trends among Hispanics in recent midterm election cycles. It also provides a snapshot of the geography and demography of the Hispanic vote in 2014, with a special focus on states and Congressional districts with competitive races. Accompanying this report are state profiles of Hispanic eligible voters in 42 states and the District of Columbia, each based on data from the 2012 American Community Survey. Also accompanying this report are interactive maps and tables showing key characteristics of Latino voters in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, as well as in each of the nations 435 Congressional districts and the District of Columbia. 12 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Among the reports other findings: Latino eligible voters in the Congressional districts: The 66 Congressional districts with at least 100,000 Latino eligible voters contain about half of all Latino eligible voters nationwide. In 49 of these districts, incumbents are Democrats. The 157 Congressional districts with at least 50,000 Latino eligible voters contain about three- quarters of all Latino eligible voters nationwide. In 96 of these districts, incumbents are Democrats. The districts with the five highest Hispanic eligible voter shares are Californias 40 th (77.6%), Texass 34 th (76.6%), Texass 16 th (73.5%), Texass 15 th (71.4%) and Texass 28 th (66.6%). Texass 16 th district is the largest Congressional district by Latino eligible voter population, with 313,000 Latino eligible voters. Latino eligible voters in the states: More than two-thirds of Hispanic eligible voters live in just six statesCalifornia, Texas, Florida, New York, Arizona and Illinois. At 40.1%, New Mexico has the highest Latino eligible voter share, followed by Texas (27.4%), California (26.9%), Arizona (20.3%) and Florida (17.1%). Since 2006, the number of Hispanic eligible voters has grown fastest in South Carolina (up 126.2%), Tennessee (up 113.7%) and Alabama (up 110.5%). The Demographics of Latino Eligible Voters Three-quarters (74%) of Latino eligible voters are U.S. born and 26% are immigrants who hold U.S. citizenship. Some 17% of Hispanic eligible voters hold a bachelors degree or more. By comparison, 33% of white, 20% of black and 48% of Asian eligible voters hold a bachelors degree or more. Among Hispanic eligible voters, 60% are of Mexican origin, 13% Puerto Rican origin, 5% Cuban origin, 4% Dominican origin and 3% are of Salvadoran origin. 13 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Chapter 1: The Geography of Latino Voters The Latino population is among the fastest growing in the nation, and has dispersed across the U.S. over the past two decades (Brown and Lopez, 2012). This has resulted in a growing Latino presence among eligible voters in many parts of the country. Hispanics make up 10.7% of eligible voters nationwide but the Hispanic eligible voter population is concentrated in relatively few of the 435 Congressional districts of the 113 th Congress. For example, half (50%) of Hispanic eligible voters are in 66 districts, each with 100,000 or more Hispanic eligible voters. And the 157 congressional districts with at least 50,000 Hispanic eligible voters together contain about 76% of all Hispanic eligible voters. Californias 40 th District has the highest share of Hispanic eligible voters. Located in the Los Angeles area, 77.6% of eligible voters in Californias 40 th are Hispanic. Following Californias 40 th are four districts in Texas: the 34 th District (76.6%), 16 th
District (73.5%), 15 th District (71.4%) and 28 th District (66.6%). All four are located along the U.S.-Mexico border either in the Rio Grande Valley or in El Paso. These five Congressional districts are currently controlled by Democrats. Among the 10 districts with the highest share of Hispanic eligible voters, eight are controlled by Democrats. The two Republican incumbents among these 10 represent districts in South Florida with large Cuban populationsFloridas 27 th District and 25 th District. By contrast, in seven congressional districts, less than 1% of eligible voters are Latino. Ohios 6 th District has a Latino eligible share of just 0.5%the lowest in the nation. The six other Congressional districts and their Latino eligible voter shares are: Kentuckys 5 th District (0.6%), West Virginias 3 rd District (0.7%) and 1 st District (0.7%), Virginias 9 th District (0.8%), Maines 2 nd
District (0.9%) and Mississippis 2 nd District (0.9%). In four of these seven districts, incumbents are Republicans.
TABLE 3 Top 10 Congressional Districts by Share Latino Among Eligible Voters Congressional District % Latino among eligible voters California-40 77.6 Texas-34 76.6 Texas-16 73.5 Texas-15 71.4 Texas-28 66.6 Florida-27 65.0 Texas-20 64.1 Florida-25 62.7 Florida-26 62.3 New York-15 61.7 Note: Latinos are of any race. Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of American FactFinder (2012 ACS 1-year estimates, tables B05003 and B05003I) PEW RESEARCH CENTER 14 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org The vast majority (96%) of Hispanic eligible voters live in districts without a close Congressional race this year. In the 14 Congressional districts with competitive races for the U.S. House of Representatives this year, Hispanics account for 13.6% of eligible voters on average, but the share in each district varies widely. 11 The competitive districts with the highest share of Hispanic eligible voters are Floridas 26 th District (62%), Californias 26 th
District (31%) and Arizonas 2 nd District (20%). In each district, respectively, the incumbents are Joe Garcia (D), Julia Brownley (D) and Ron Barber (D). In six competitive districts, Hispanics make up less than 5% of eligible voters. Democrats control all but one of these districts (Iowas 3 rd
District is an open seat last held by a Republican). Among the nations Latino eligible voters, more than two-thirds live in just six states California, Texas, Florida, New York, Arizona and Illinois. California and Texas alone contain about half (46.3%) of all Hispanics, and half (46.4%) of all Hispanic eligible voters. In New Mexico, Hispanics make up 40.1% of eligible voters, the highest share in the nation. New Mexico is followed by Texas (27.4%), California (26.9%), Arizona (20.3%) and Florida (17.1%). Over the past decade, the Hispanic population has grown most quickly among states in the southeast (Brown and Lopez, 2012). However, much of the growth has come from people not eligible to vote: immigrants (many of whom are not U.S. citizens) and those under 18. For
11 Competitive House and Gubernatorial races are those considered competitive by The Cook Report, Real Clear Politics and CNN on Oct. 15, 2014. Competitive Senate races also took FiveThirtyEights ratings into consideration. TABLE 4 Latino Share of Eligible Voters in States with Competitive 2014 U.S. House of Representative Races
Latino eligible voters (in thousands) % Latino among eligible voters All U.S. 23,632 10.7
Congressional District
Florida-26 282 62.3 California-26 138 30.9 Arizona-2 105 19.6 Arizona-1 85 16.4 California-7 60 12.3 Colorado-6 59 12.1 California-52 61 12.0 Illinois-10 50 11.1 Florida-2 25 4.6 Iowa-3 17 3.0 Illinois-12 11 2.0 New Hampshire-1 10 2.0 Minnesota-8 5 1.0 West Virginia-3 3 0.7 Note: Congressional districts shown are those with competitive House races as indicated by The Cook Report, Real Clear Politics and CNN on Oct. 15, 2014. Latinos are of any race. Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of American FactFinder (2012 ACS 1-year estimates, tables B05003 and B05003I); For All U.S., Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2012 American Community Survey (1% IPUMS sample) PEW RESEARCH CENTER 15 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org example, in North Carolina, the number of Hispanics has more than doubled since 2000 and Hispanics now make up 9% of the states population. But the share of Hispanics falls to 3.1% among the states eligible voters since so many Hispanics who live in North Carolina are not eligible to vote. Overall, just 25.3% of Hispanics in North Carolina are at least 18 years old and a U.S. citizen, the lowest share across the states. Nationally, 44.6% of all Hispanics are at least 18 years of age and a U.S. citizen. In the case of eligible voters, some of the fastest growing states are in the Southeast. Since 2006, the number of Hispanic eligible voters has grown fastest in South Carolina (126.2%), Tennessee (113.7%) and Alabama (110.5%). TABLE 5 Top 5 States by Growth in Hispanic Eligible Voter Population, 2006-2012 Eligible voter population in thousands
Hispanic eligible voter population in 2006 Hispanic eligible voter population in 2012 % change All U.S. 17,975 23,632 31.3
State
South Carolina 36 82 126.2 Tennessee 46 98 113.7 Alabama 27 56 110.5 West Virginia 7 13 97.7 Kentucky 27 51 87.4 Note: Latinos are of any race. Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. Percent changes are computed before rounding. Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2012 and 2006 American Community Survey (1% IPUMS sample); For states with a small sample size among Hispanic eligible voters, Pew Research Center tabulations of American FactFinder (2012 and 2006 ACS 1- year estimates, tables B05003I) PEW RESEARCH CENTER 16 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Latino Voters and Competitive Senate Races About 1.2 million Hispanic eligible voters live in the eight states with competitive Senate races this year, making up on average just 4.7% of eligible voters. Nationally, 10.7% of all eligible voters are Hispanic. This year, Latinos make up more than 4.7% of eligible voters in three competitive Senate states Colorado (14.2%), Kansas (6.0%) and Alaska (4.8%). Colorado alone accounts for 45% of Latino eligible voters in all competitive Senate states. North Carolina has the next highest number of Latino eligible voters, and accounts for 19% of all eligible voters in competitive states. But due to North Carolinas relatively large population, Latinos account for only about 3% of the states 7 million eligible voters. The Hispanic electorate is small in both size and share in some states with competitive Senate races. For example, in Kentucky, 51,000 Hispanic eligible voters account for 1.6% of the states 3.3 million total eligible voters. TABLE 6 Latino Share of Eligible Voters in States with Competitive 2014 Senate Races
Latino eligible voters (in thousands) % Latino among eligible voters All U.S. 23,632 10.7
State
Colorado 524 14.2 Kansas 123 6.0 Alaska 25 4.8 North Carolina 214 3.1 Arkansas 63 2.9 Louisiana 94 2.8 Iowa 61 2.7 Kentucky 51 1.6 Note: States are those with competitive Senate races as indicated by The Cook Report, Real Clear Politics, FiveThirtyEight and CNN on Oct. 15, 2014. Latinos are of any race. Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2012 American Community Survey (1% IPUMS sample); For Alaska, Pew Research Center tabulations of American FactFinder (2012 ACS 1-year estimates, tables B05003 and B05003I) PEW RESEARCH CENTER 17 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Latino Voters and Competitive Gubernatorial Races Hispanics are better represented among the electorate in states with competitive races for governor compared with states with competitive Senate races. On average, 7.9% of eligible voters are Hispanic in the nine states with close gubernatorial races, more than the 4.7% share in competitive Senate races. This year there are 36 governor races. In Florida, the 2.3 million Hispanics eligible to vote make up 17% of eligible voters in the state, the highest share of any competitive gubernatorial state. Some 14.2% of eligible voters in Colorado, 10.3% of eligible voters in Connecticut and 9.5% of eligible voters in Illinois are Hispanic, each higher than the 7.9% average across the states with close gubernatorial races. Competitive gubernatorial states with a high share of Latino eligible voters also tend to have large numbers of Latino eligible voters. The three most populous states on this measure are Florida (2.3 million), Illinois (846,000) and Colorado (524,000). By contrast, Maines 11,000 Latino eligible voters account for just 1% of the states eligible voters. Latinos make up a growing part of the electorate in competitive gubernatorial states. For example, in Florida, the number of Latino eligible voters increased from 2.1 million in 2010 to 2.3 million in 2012, while the Latino eligible voter share increased by 1.2 percentage points over the same period.
TABLE 7 Latino Share of Eligible Voters in States with Competitive 2014 Gubernatorial Races
Latino eligible voters (in thousands) % Latino among eligible voters All U.S. 23,632 10.7
State
Florida 2,328 17.1 Colorado 524 14.2 Connecticut 265 10.3 Illinois 846 9.5 Massachusetts 336 7.0 Kansas 123 6.0 Wisconsin 135 3.2 Michigan 213 2.9 Maine 11 1.0 Note: States are those with toss-up Governors races as indicated by The Cook Report, Real Clear Politics, and CNN on Oct. 15, 2014. Latinos are of any race. Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2012 American Community Survey (1% IPUMS sample); For Maine, Pew Research Center tabulations of American FactFinder (2012 ACS 1-year estimates, tables B05003 and B05003I) PEW RESEARCH CENTER 18 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Chapter 2: Latinos Views on Selected 2014 Ballot Measure Issues Voters in 41 states and the District of Columbia will get to weigh in on policy initiatives on state ballots in the November 2014 election. There are 147 statewide ballot measures facing voters this year, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures (Underhill, 2014). Among the policy issues up for a vote are measures about marijuana legalization, gun rights and restrictions, abortion and raising the minimum wage. Pew Research Center surveys of American adults show the opinions of Hispanic registered voters nationwide compared with voters of other racial and ethnic backgrounds. 12
On November 4, proposals to legalize marijuana for recreational use will be on the ballots in Oregon, Alaska and the District of Columbia and a proposal to legalize marijuana for medicinal purposes will be on the ballot in Florida (and Guam). Hispanic registered voters are split over whether or not they think marijuana should be legalized49% say it should be made legal while 48% disagree, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted earlier this year. 13 By contrast, black registered
12 Sample sizes for the surveys were too small to look at the views of Hispanics in individual states.
13 The Pew Research Centers Political Polarization and Typology Survey was conducted in three phases from January 23 to March 16, 2014. The combined sample across the three phases was 10,013 adults and 902 Hispanic adults. For more on methodology, see http://www.people-press.org/2014/06/26/appendix-3-about-the-surveys/ FIGURE 4 Hispanics Views of Marijuana Legalization % who say the use of marijuana should be made legal
All Hispanic White Black % of registered voters who say the use of marijuana should Be legal for personal use 41 34 43 41 Be legal only for medicinal use 41 47 38 43 Not be legal 16 17 18 12 Dont know/Refused 2 2 1 4 Note: Hispanics are of any race. Whites and blacks include only non- Hispanics. In the chart, the sample size of foreign-born Hispanics is small (n=94). Source: For the chart, Pew Research Center Political Polarization and Typology Survey (Phase B), Feb. 12-16, 2014, n=302 Hispanic adults, n=182 Hispanic registered voters; For the table, Pew Research Center survey, Feb. 14-23, 2014, n=101 Hispanic registered voters PEW RESEARCH CENTER 53 49 52 63 57 27 Total U.S. Hispanic White Black U.S. born Foreign born Among registered voters ... Among all Hispanics ... 19 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org voters (63%) are more likely than Hispanic registered voters to say marijuana use should be made legal. Among all Hispanics, the U.S. born are about twice as supportive of marijuana legalization as those born outside the U.S. (57% vs. 27%). Pew Research Center surveys have also explored other aspects of marijuana use and views. For example, when asked a more detailed question about whether the use of marijuana should be legal for personal use, only for medicinal use or not be legal at all, support for some type of legalization rises, according to a February 2014 Pew Research survey. About eight-in-ten Hispanic registered voters (81%) say it should be legal in some form, with 47% supporting medicinal legalization only and 34% supporting legalization for personal use as well. Similar shares of white (81%) and black (84%) registered voters support legalization with 43% of whites and 41% of blacks favoring legalization for personal use, while 38% of whites and 43% of blacks favor legalization of marijuana only for medicinal use. None of the ballot initiatives would allow for legal use of marijuana in public places. 14 This is in line with public opinion on this question. Some 63% of all registered voters, and 61% of Hispanic registered voters, say that if marijuana were made legal it would bother them if people used it in public. In the Pew Research survey, Hispanics were less likely than other racial or ethnic groups to report having used marijuana. Some 41% of Hispanic registered voters, and 33% of all Hispanics, say they have tried it at some point in their lives. By contrast, greater shares of all whites (50%) and all blacks (49%) say they have tried marijuana. If the measures to legalize marijuana do not pass, a majority of Hispanic registered voters would still favor some level of decriminalization68% say even if marijuana is not legalized, people convicted of possessing small amounts of marijuana should not serve jail time. Among all registered voters, 78% say this. Regardless of their personal views about whether or not to legalize marijuana for recreational use, Hispanics see the legalization of marijuana nationwide as inevitable69% of all Hispanics, regardless of their registration status, think that the sale and use of marijuana eventually will be legal nationwide. This is similar to the share of blacks who think this will be the case (67%), but smaller than the share of whites who think so (79%).
14 Though the D.C. ballot initiative doesnt directly include a ban on public use, the D.C. Council is considering a separate bill that would regulate and tax marijuana in the District. 20 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org On November 4, two states will vote on ballot measures regarding gun rights or restrictions. In Alabama, voters will be deciding whether to amend their state constitution to explicitly allow citizens of Alabama the right to bear arms. In Washington state, voters face two competing measures: The first would restrict gun control by preventing confiscation of firearms without due process and implementing background checks for firearm sales unless a federal standard is established. The second would strengthen gun control by extending the existing requirement for background checks in purchases made from licensed dealers to all gun purchases, including gun shows, online sales and private sales. An early 2014 Pew Research Center survey asked U.S. adults what is more important protecting the right of Americans to own guns or controlling gun ownership (Pew Research Center, 2014d). Hispanic registered voters nationally say they prefer gun control over the rights of owners by a margin of 62%-to-36%, as do black registered voters by a margin of 71%-to-26%, according to the survey. By contrast, white registered voters choose gun owners rights over gun control by a margin of 59%-to-39%. Included in the roughly six-in-ten Hispanic registered voters who say they prefer gun control are 44% who say that most Americans should be able to own guns if certain limits are in place and 18% who say only law enforcement and security personnel should be able to own guns. Also included among the 36% of Hispanic registered voters who think protecting gun rights is a bigger priority are 27% who favor some restrictions on gun ownership and just 9% who favor no such restrictions. FIGURE 5 Hispanic Registered Voters Prefer Gun Control Over Protecting Gun Ownership % saying is more important
Note: Hispanics are of any race. Whites and blacks include only non- Hispanics. Dont know/Refused responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center Political Polarization and Typology Survey (Phase A), Jan. 23-Feb. 9, 2014, n=301 Hispanic adults, n=169 Hispanic registered voters PEW RESEARCH CENTER 53 36 59 26 40 14 45 62 39 71 59 82 Total U.S. Hispanic White Black U.S. born Foreign born Protecting the right of Americans to own guns Controlling gun ownership Among registered voters ... Among all Hispanics ... 21 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Looking across all Hispanics regardless of their voter registration status or eligibility, 15 82% of foreign-born Hispanics think controlling gun ownership is more important than protecting gun ownership rights, compared with 59% of Hispanics born in the U.S. who say the same. A recent Pew Research Center analysis found that two-in-ten Hispanics say they have a gun, rifle or pistol in their home (Morin, 2014). This is similar to the share of blacks who say this (19%), but whites are twice as likely (41%) to say they have a gun in their home. According to a Pew Research analysis of crime rates in the U.S., 17% of gun homicide victims were Hispanic, proportionate to their 16% share of the U.S. population in 2010. By contrast, blacks make up 55% of gun homicide victims, but just 13% of the U.S. population, while whites make up 25% of victims and 65% of the population (Cohn et. al., 2013). Voters in three statesColorado, North Dakota and Tennesseewill have the option to vote for ballot measures this year that, if approved, would define conception as the start of life and affect access to abortions and certain birth control methods. The measures in Colorado and North Dakota define life or personhood as beginning at conception, while the Tennessee ballot measure would amend the state constitution to include language empowering the state legislature to enact,
15 The sample size of foreign-born Hispanics who are registered to vote (n=46) is too small to produce reliable estimates. TABLE 8 Views of Abortion % saying abortion should be ---------Registered Voters--------- --------------------------------Total U.S. Adults-------------------------------- All Hispanic White Black All Hispanic White Black U.S.- born Hispanic Foreign- born Hispanic Legal in all/most cases 52 48 53 49 51 44 54 47 51 35 Some restrictions 31 28 33 26 31 26 34 24 31 21 Never restricted 20 21 19 23 19 17 19 23 20 14 Illegal in all/most cases 42 44 41 44 43 51 41 46 43 60 Some allowances 28 29 29 27 28 30 28 28 27 35 Never allowed 12 14 11 17 14 20 12 17 15 26 n=2,665 n=169 n=2,027 n=270 n=3,341 n=301 n=2,407 n=348 n=182 n=117 Note: Hispanics are of any race. Whites and blacks include only non-Hispanics. Dont know/Refused responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center Political Polarization and Typology Survey (Phase A), Jan. 23-Feb. 9, 2014 PEW RESEARCH CENTER 22 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org amend or repeal statutes regarding abortion, including, but not limited to, circumstances of pregnancy resulting from rape or incest or when necessary to save the life of the mother. Hispanic registered voters are split on the issue of abortion48% think it should be legal in all or most cases, while 44% say it should be illegal in all or most cases. Included among those who think abortion should be legal are 28% of Hispanic registered voters who say there are some situations where abortion should be restricted and 21% who say there should be no restrictions at all. And included among those who think abortion should be illegal are 29% who say there are some situations where abortion should be allowed and 14% who say abortion should never be allowed. The views of Hispanic registered voters are similar to those of white and black registered voters some 49% of blacks and 53% of whites think abortion should be legal, while some 44% of blacks and 41% of whites think abortion should be illegal. Looking at all Americans, regardless of their voter registration status, whites (54%) are more likely than blacks (47%) and Hispanics (44%) to think abortion should be legal. Among all Hispanics, 51% think abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, including 20% who think abortion should never be allowed. On the issue of abortion, Hispanics overall have long been more likely to say it should be illegal in all or most cases. Over the last decade, this view has not changed much among all Hispanics, with between 51% and 57% saying abortion should be illegal in all or most cases (Pew Research Center, 2014c). 16
This difference between Latino registered voters and all Latinos may reflect different views among U.S.-born and foreign-born Latinos, as most Latino registered voters were born in the U.S. Foreign-born Latinos oppose abortion by a margin of nearly 2-to-1: 60% say it should be illegal in all or most cases, while just 35% say it should be legal. By contrast, 51% of U.S.-born Latinos think abortion should be legal, while 43% think it should be illegal.
Four statesAlaska, Arkansas, Nebraska and South Dakotawill have measures on their ballots this November to raise the minimum wage. If voters pass these measures, the hourly minimum wage would rise incrementally from $7.75 to $9.75 by 2016 in Alaska, from $6.25 to $8.50 by 2017 in Arkansas, from $7.25 to $9.00 by 2016 in Nebraska and from $7.25 to $8.50 in 2015 in South
16 The views of the general public have also been fairly stable over this time period, with between 39% and 44% thinking that abortion should be illegal in all or most cases throughout this time period. 23 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Dakota. The ballot measures in Alaska and South Dakota also include future increases based on inflation. In addition, Illinois has a non-binding advisory question on its ballot to gauge public support for raising the states hourly minimum wage from $8.25 to $10 by 2015. Currently, the federal minimum wage stands at $7.25 and was last raised, in steps, between 2007 and 2009 (DeSilver, 2014). A Pew Research Center survey in January 2014 asked Americans what they thought about raising the federal minimum wage from its current level of $7.25 an hour to $10.10 an hour. This is a move most (73%) Americans favor (Pew Research Center, 2014a). (None of the ballot measures being considered this year would raise hourly wages to this level, though Alaskas ballot measure stipulates that the Alaskan minimum wage must be at least $1 higher than the federal minimum wage.) Among Hispanics, 84% favor increasing the federal minimum wage, including 40% who say they strongly favor this move. Meanwhile, 13% of Hispanics say they oppose increasing the federal minimum wage. The views of Hispanics are similar to those of blacks86% of blacks say they favor raising the federal minimum wage, as do 67% of whites. The share of hourly-paid workers at or below minimum wage is similar across racial and ethnic groups4.4% of Hispanics, 4.3% of whites and 4.9% of blacks, according to a report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2014a). However, Hispanics are overrepresented as a share of all minimum wage workers. Hispanics make up 19% of hourly workers that earn minimum wage or less, but they make up 16% of all employed Americans ages 16 and older in 2013 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2014b). FIGURE 6 Hispanics Support Raising the Federal Minimum Wage % saying they increasing the minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10 an hour
Note: Sample size of Hispanic registered voters was too small to analyze. Hispanics are of any race. Whites and blacks include only non-Hispanics. Dont know/Refused responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center survey, Jan. 15-19, 2014, n=162 Hispanic adults PEW RESEARCH CENTER 25 13 30 12 73 84 67 86 Total U.S. Hispanic White Black Oppose Favor 24 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Chapter 3: A Profile of Latino Eligible Voters The demographic characteristics of the Latino electorate are different from other racial or ethnic groups of eligible voters, according to Pew Research Center tabulations of the August 2014 Current Population Survey. Latino eligible voters are younger than any other group of voters. One-third of Latino eligible voters are ages 18 to 29. This compares with one- quarter of black eligible voters, 21% of Asian eligible voters and 18% of white eligible voters who are in the same age group. The relative youth of Hispanics is also reflected in the median age of each group. Among eligible voters, the median age of Hispanics is 38 years, compared with 44 years among blacks, 45 years among Asians and 50 years among whites. Hispanic eligible voters are also more likely to be naturalized U.S. citizens (i.e. foreign born) than either white eligible voters or black eligible voters, but less likely than Asian eligible voters to be naturalized. About one- quarter of all Latino eligible voters (26%) are naturalized U.S. citizens, compared with TABLE 9 Demographics of Eligible Voters, by Race and Ethnicity, 2014 % of eligible voters, unless specified
Hispanic eligible voters White eligible voters Black eligible voters Asian eligible voters Gender
Female 52 51 55 54 Male 48 49 45 46 Age
18 to 29 33 18 25 21 30 to 44 28 22 26 27 45 to 54 16 18 18 18 55 to 64 12 18 16 16 65 and older 11 23 14 17 Median age
Less than high school diploma 18 7 13 10 High school diploma or equivalent 35 30 35 20 Some college/2-year degree 30 30 33 22 Bachelors degree or more 17 33 20 48 Hispanic origin
Mexican 60 --- --- --- Puerto Rican 13 --- --- --- Cuban 5 --- --- --- Dominican 4 --- --- --- Salvadoran 3 --- --- --- Other 15 --- --- --- Notes: Eligible voters are defined as U.S. citizens, ages 18 and older. Whites, blacks and Asians include only non-Hispanics. Hispanics are of any race. Percentages may not total 100% due to rounding. Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the August 2014 Current Population Survey PEW RESEARCH CENTER 25 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org 63% of Asian eligible voters, 6% of black eligible voters and 3% of white eligible voters. Looked at another way, three-quarters (74%) of Latino eligible voters are U.S. born. Latino eligible voters are less likely to have completed high school or have a four-year college degree than other groups. Close to one-in-five (18%) Latino eligible voters have less than a high school degree, compared with 7% of white eligible voters, 10% of Asian eligible voters, and 13% of black eligible voters. Latino eligible voters are half as likely to have earned a bachelors degree (17%) than white eligible voters (33%), and even less likely to have done so than Asian eligible voters (48%). The share of Latino eligible voters who have completed college is also lower than the share of black eligible voters (20%), though the difference among these two groups is less pronounced. Among Hispanic eligible voters, 60% are of Mexican origin, 13% are of Puerto Rican origin, 5% are of Cuban origin, 4% are of Dominican origin, 3% are of Salvadoran origin and 15% are of other Central American, South American or other Hispanic origins. After Mexicans, this distribution is somewhat different from that of the overall Hispanic population, where 64% are Mexican, 9% are Puerto Rican, 4% are Cuban, 4% are Salvadoran, and 3% are Dominican (Brown and Patten, 2014).
26 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org References Brown, Anna. 2014. U.S. Hispanic and Asian populations growing, but for different reasons. Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center. June. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact- tank/2014/06/26/u-s-hispanic-and-asian-populations-growing-but-for-different-reasons/ Brown, Anna, and Mark Hugo Lopez. 2012. Mapping the Latino Population, By State, County and City. Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center. October. http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/10/01/mapping-the-2012-latino-electorate/ Brown, Anna, and Eileen Patten. 2014. Statistical Portrait of Hispanics in the United States, 2012. Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center. April. http://www.pewhispanic.org/2014/04/29/statistical-portrait-of-hispanics-in-the-united- states-2012/ The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement. 2013. The Youth Vote in 2012. Medford, MA: CIRCLE. May. http://www.civicyouth.org/wp- content/uploads/2013/05/CIRCLE_2013FS_outhVoting2012FINAL.pdf Cohn, DVera, Paul Taylor, Mark Hugo Lopez, Catherine A. Gallagher, Kim Parker and Kevin T. Maass. 2013. Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware. Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center. May. http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2013/05/07/gun- homicide-rate-down-49-since-1993-peak-public-unaware/ DeSilver, Drew. 2014. Who makes minimum wage? Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center. September. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/09/08/who-makes-minimum- wage/ Krogstad, Jens Manuel. 2014. Hispanics punch below their weight in midterm elections. Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center. April. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact- tank/2014/04/02/hispanics-punch-below-their-weight-in-midterm-elections/ Lopez, Mark Hugo. 2011. The Latino Electorate in 2010: More Voters, More Non-Voters. Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center. April. http://www.pewhispanic.org/2011/04/26/the- latino-electorate-in-2010-more-voters-more-non-voters/
27 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Lopez, Mark Hugo, and Ana Gonzalez-Barrera. 2012. Latino Voters Support Obama by 3-1 Ratio, But Are Less Certain than Others about Voting. Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center. October. http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/10/11/latino-voters-support-obama-by-3-1-ratio- but-are-less-certain-than-others-about-voting/ Lopez, Mark Hugo, and Ana Gonzalez-Barrera. 2013. Inside the 2012 Latino Electorate. Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center. June. http://www.pewhispanic.org/2013/06/03/inside-the-2012-latino-electorate/ Lopez, Mark Hugo, Seth Motel and Eileen Patten. 2012. A Record 24 Million Latinos Are Eligible to Vote, But Turnout Rate Has Lagged That of Whites, Blacks. Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center. October. http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/10/01/a-record-24-million- latinos-are-eligible-to-vote/ Lopez, Mark Hugo, and Paul Taylor. 2012. Latino Voters in the 2012 Election. Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center. November. http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/07/latino-voters-in- the-2012-election/ Morin, Rich. 2014. The demographics and politics of gun-owning households. Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center. July. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/07/15/the- demographics-and-politics-of-gun-owning-households/ Patten, Eileen, and Mark Hugo Lopez. 2013. Are unauthorized immigrants overwhelmingly Democrats? Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center. July. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact- tank/2013/07/22/are-unauthorized-immigrants-overwhelmingly-democrats/ Pew Research Center. 2014a. Most See Inequality Growing, but Partisans Differ over Solutions. Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center. January. http://www.people- press.org/2014/01/23/most-see-inequality-growing-but-partisans-differ-over-solutions/ Pew Research Center. 2014b. Americas New Drug Policy Landscape: Two-Thirds Favor Treatment, Not Jail, for Use of Heroin, Cocaine. Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center. April. http://www.people-press.org/2014/04/02/americas-new-drug-policy-landscape/ Pew Research Center. 2014c. The Shifting Religious Identity of Latinos in the United States: Nearly One-in-Four Latinos are Former Catholics. Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center. May. http://www.pewforum.org/2014/05/07/the-shifting-religious-identity-of-latinos-in-the- united-states/ 28 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Pew Research Center. 2014d. Beyond Red vs. Blue: The Political Typology. Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center. June. http://www.people-press.org/2014/06/26/the-political-typology- beyond-red-vs-blue/ Taylor, Paul, Ana Gonzalez-Barrera, Jeffrey S. Passel and Mark Hugo Lopez. 2012. An Awakened Giant: The Hispanic Electorate is Likely to Double by 2030. Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center. November. http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/14/an-awakened-giant-the- hispanic-electorate-is-likely-to-double-by-2030/ U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2014a. Characteristics of Minimum Wage Workers, 2013. Washington, D.C. March. http://www.bls.gov/cps/minwage2013.pdf U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2014b. Labor Force Characteristics by Race and Ethnicity, 2013. Washington, D.C. August. http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsrace2013.pdf Underhill, Wendy. 2014. Voters to Decide on 147 Statewide Ballot Measures. Washington, D.C.: National Conference of State Legislatures, accessed October 9, 2014. http://www.ncsl.org/blog/2014/10/07/voters-to-decide-on-147-statewide-ballot- measures.aspx 29 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Appendix A: Additional Charts and Maps
APPENDIX FIGURE 1 Latino Electorate in Midterm Elections, 1986-2014 in millions
Note: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. Voters are persons who say they voted. Source: For 1986 to 2010, Pew Research Center tabulations of the Current Population Survey November Supplements; for 2014, Pew Research Center tabulations of the August Current Population Survey. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 7.5 8.1 10.3 12.4 14.5 17.3 21.3 25.2 2.9 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.5 5.6 6.6 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Eligible voters Voters 30 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
31 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
32 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Appendix B: Additional Tables 17
17 For an interactive sortable table or to download an excel file of the appendix tables, see http://www.pewhispanic.org/interactives/mapping- the-latino-electorate-by-state/ and http://www.pewhispanic.org/interactives/mapping-the-latino-electorate-by-congressional-district/ APPENDIX TABLE 1 Hispanic Eligible Voter Population, by State, 2012 Incumbent Senator in Seat up for Election Population (thousands) Hispanic population (thousands) % Hispanic State Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters % of Hispanics eligible to vote Alabama R 4,822 3,601 185 56 3.8 1.6 30.3 Alaska D 731 524 44 25 6.0 4.8 57.7 Arizona NA 6,553 4,437 1,977 902 30.2 20.3 45.6 Arkansas D 2,949 2,162 197 63 6.7 2.9 32.0 California NA 38,041 23,821 14,540 6,415 38.2 26.9 44.1 Colorado D 5,188 3,680 1,088 524 21.0 14.2 48.2 Connecticut NA 3,590 2,562 511 265 14.2 10.3 51.9 Delaware D 917 675 79 30 8.6 4.5 38.5 District of Columbia NA 632 473 63 26 10.0 5.5 41.2 Florida NA 19,318 13,640 4,484 2,328 23.2 17.1 51.9
Georgia R 9,920 6,895 903 274 9.1 4.0 30.4 Hawaii D 1,392 989 131 78 9.4 7.9 59.8 Idaho R 1,596 1,120 184 73 11.5 6.5 39.5 Illinois D 12,875 8,930 2,099 846 16.3 9.5 40.3 Indiana NA 6,537 4,770 409 156 6.3 3.3 38.1 Iowa D 3,074 2,279 161 61 5.2 2.7 37.7 Kansas R 2,886 2,060 315 123 10.9 6.0 39.0 Kentucky R 4,380 3,291 134 51 3.1 1.6 38.3 Louisiana D 4,602 3,392 207 94 4.5 2.8 45.4 Maine R 1,329 1,044 18 11 1.4 1.0 57.1
Maryland NA 5,885 4,137 510 165 8.7 4.0 32.3 Massachusetts D 6,646 4,802 674 336 10.1 7.0 49.8 Michigan D 9,883 7,356 452 213 4.6 2.9 47.2 Minnesota D 5,379 3,922 263 84 4.9 2.1 31.8 Mississippi R 2,985 2,204 76 31 2.6 1.4 40.9 Continued on next page PEW RESEARCH CENTER 33 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org APPENDIX TABLE 1 (CONTINUED) Hispanic Eligible Voter Population, by State, 2012 Incumbent Senator in Seat up for Election Population (thousands) Hispanic population (thousands) % Hispanic State Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters % of Hispanics eligible to vote Missouri NA 6,022 4,503 218 97 3.6 2.1 44.3 Montana D 1,005 778 31 19 3.1 2.5 61.5 Nebraska R 1,856 1,323 179 63 9.6 4.7 35.0 Nevada NA 2,759 1,824 753 291 27.3 15.9 38.6 New Hampshire D 1,321 1,014 40 20 3.0 2.0 49.5 New Jersey D 8,865 6,018 1,643 770 18.5 12.8 46.9 New Mexico D 2,086 1,457 980 585 47.0 40.1 59.7 New York NA 19,570 13,395 3,553 1,762 18.2 13.2 49.6 North Carolina D 9,752 7,004 845 214 8.7 3.1 25.3 North Dakota NA 700 536 17 9 2.4 1.7 54.5
Ohio NA 11,544 8,693 371 185 3.2 2.1 49.8 Oklahoma R* 3,815 2,746 356 124 9.3 4.5 34.7 Oregon R 3,899 2,839 473 168 12.1 5.9 35.6 Pennsylvania NA 12,764 9,702 777 408 6.1 4.2 52.6 Rhode Island D 1,050 770 139 60 13.2 7.8 43.2 South Carolina R* 4,724 3,514 247 82 5.2 2.3 33.1 South Dakota D 833 617 25 11 3.0 1.8 43.7 Tennessee R 6,456 4,804 307 98 4.8 2.0 32.1 Texas R 26,059 16,548 9,960 4,540 38.2 27.4 45.6 Utah NA 2,855 1,834 379 139 13.3 7.6 36.6
Vermont NA 626 493 10 6 1.6 1.3 63.8 Virginia D 8,186 5,883 687 271 8.4 4.6 39.5 Washington NA 6,897 4,880 808 299 11.7 6.1 37.0 West Virginia D 1,855 1,459 24 13 1.3 0.9 55.0 Wisconsin NA 5,726 4,272 353 135 6.2 3.2 38.1 Wyoming R 576 431 54 31 9.4 7.2 57.5
Total U.S. 313,914 220,111 52,961 23,632 16.9 10.7 44.6 Note: The 8 competitive Senate states as identified by Cook Political Report, Real Clear Politics, FiveThirtyEight and CNN are bolded. Eligible voters are persons ages 18 and older who are U.S. citizens. * indicates state will vote on two seats due to special elections. In both, the second seat is also currently held by a Republican. Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of 2012 American Community Survey (1% IPUMS); Alaska, Maine, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and West Virginia estimates are from American FactFinder (2012 ACS 1-year estimates, tables B05003 and B05003I) PEW RESEARCH CENTER 34 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
Population (thousands) Hispanic population (thousands) % Hispanic State Congressional district Incumbent party Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters % of Hispanics eligible to vote Alabama 1 R 693 515 20 7 2.9 1.3 33.5 Alabama 2 R 684 509 23 8 3.4 1.5 32.3 Alabama 3 R 696 528 18 8 2.7 1.5 42.2 Alabama 4 R 681 508 34 8 5.0 1.5 22.9 Alabama 5 R 697 521 34 13 4.9 2.4 36.9 Alabama 6 R 689 503 34 7 5.0 1.5 21.3 Alabama 7 D 683 516 21 7 3.1 1.3 33.3
Alaska at large R 731 524 44 25 6.0 4.8 57.7
Arizona 1 D 723 517 154 85 21.3 16.4 55.1 Arizona 2 D 727 537 191 105 26.2 19.6 55.1 Arizona 3 D 720 426 458 224 63.6 52.5 48.8 Arizona 4 R 721 531 126 58 17.5 11.0 46.1 Arizona 5 R 737 511 133 66 18.0 12.9 49.7 Arizona 6 R 723 526 104 44 14.4 8.4 42.4 Arizona 7 D 736 358 469 160 63.8 44.5 34.0 Arizona 8 R 731 525 140 73 19.1 13.9 52.3 Arizona 9 D 736 515 201 93 27.4 18.1 46.2
Arkansas 1 R 729 548 21 9 2.9 1.7 43.6 Arkansas 2 R 747 555 38 15 5.0 2.7 39.7 Arkansas 3 R 755 521 100 28 13.2 5.4 28.2 Arkansas 4 R 718 535 39 12 5.5 2.2 29.4
California 1 R 711 545 92 49 12.9 8.9 53.2 California 2 D 704 508 118 44 16.7 8.7 37.5 California 3 D 712 473 202 89 28.4 18.7 43.8 California 4 R 704 529 87 44 12.3 8.4 50.9 California 5 D 716 480 197 72 27.5 15.1 36.8 California 6 D 715 472 194 89 27.2 18.8 45.6 California 7 D 720 489 117 60 16.2 12.3 51.4 Continued on next page PEW RESEARCH CENTER 35 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org APPENDIX TABLE 2 (CONTINUED) Hispanic Eligible Voter Population, by Congressional District, 2012
Population (thousands) Hispanic population (thousands) % Hispanic State Congressional district Incumbent party Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters % of Hispanics eligible to vote California 8 R 709 463 253 118 35.7 25.5 46.6 California 9 D 725 437 279 119 38.5 27.3 42.7 California 10 R 713 442 294 129 41.2 29.2 43.8 California 11 R 726 477 185 73 25.5 15.2 39.2 California 12 D 717 525 105 57 14.6 10.8 54.0 California 13 D 720 483 159 64 22.1 13.3 40.6 California 14 D 726 466 180 78 24.7 16.8 43.7 California 15 D 733 464 168 77 23.0 16.6 45.7 California 16 D 717 375 424 169 59.1 45.0 39.8 California 17 D 719 402 123 50 17.2 12.5 40.6 California 18 D 736 475 129 54 17.5 11.4 41.9 California 19 D 713 434 291 134 40.8 30.8 46.0 California 20 D 722 416 373 135 51.7 32.4 36.1 California 21 R 713 335 518 186 72.7 55.4 35.9 California 22 R 718 432 323 138 45.1 31.9 42.6 California 23 R 714 468 266 131 37.2 28.0 49.4 California 24 D 717 491 252 108 35.1 21.9 42.8 California 25 R 718 447 272 123 37.9 27.5 45.2 California 26 D 712 447 316 138 44.4 30.9 43.7 California 27 D 710 480 191 116 26.9 24.2 60.9 California 28 D 728 481 204 101 28.1 21.0 49.5 California 29 D 723 363 490 191 67.7 52.5 38.9 California 30 D 729 472 207 95 28.4 20.2 46.0 California 31 R 724 442 378 186 52.1 42.1 49.3 California 32 D 719 427 448 229 62.3 53.5 51.0 California 33 R 701 515 82 52 11.7 10.1 63.4 California 34 D 708 340 465 180 65.7 53.0 38.7 California 35 R 718 386 501 226 69.8 58.6 45.2 California 36 D 715 449 332 138 46.5 30.6 41.4 California 37 D 716 449 252 104 35.2 23.1 41.0 California 38 D 716 452 433 244 60.5 54.0 56.3 California 39 R 719 459 234 117 32.6 25.6 50.1 Continued on next page PEW RESEARCH CENTER 36 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
Population (thousands) Hispanic population (thousands) % Hispanic State Congressional district Incumbent party Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters % of Hispanics eligible to vote California 40 D 695 299 605 232 87.1 77.6 38.3 California 41 D 726 416 423 184 58.3 44.3 43.6 California 42 R 746 473 281 138 37.7 29.2 49.2 California 43 D 698 406 327 135 46.9 33.1 41.1 California 44 D 715 363 507 206 70.9 56.8 40.6 California 45 R 724 480 135 66 18.6 13.7 48.6 California 46 D 718 345 477 158 66.4 45.9 33.2 California 47 D 723 454 250 100 34.6 22.1 40.2 California 48 R 718 509 152 67 21.2 13.1 43.8 California 49 R 715 480 194 80 27.2 16.6 41.2 California 50 R 721 462 205 89 28.4 19.3 43.5 California 51 D 739 407 506 236 68.6 57.9 46.5 California 52 D 704 511 96 61 13.7 12.0 63.4 California 53 D 726 504 243 134 33.4 26.5 55.1
Colorado 1 D 750 525 213 96 28.3 18.2 45.0 Colorado 2 D 744 570 73 40 9.8 7.0 54.9 Colorado 3 R 720 529 176 97 24.4 18.3 55.0 Colorado 4 R 738 510 161 78 21.8 15.4 48.8 Colorado 5 R 741 535 110 58 14.9 10.8 52.7 Colorado 6 R 748 489 151 59 20.1 12.1 39.2 Colorado 7 D 746 523 206 98 27.6 18.7 47.5
Connecticut 1 D 724 521 110 65 15.1 12.5 59.4 Connecticut 2 D 710 544 52 30 7.3 5.4 56.9 Connecticut 3 D 712 528 95 50 13.3 9.5 52.9 Connecticut 4 D 729 462 135 57 18.6 12.3 41.9 Connecticut 5 D 716 505 119 61 16.6 12.1 51.5
Delaware at large D 917 676 79 33 8.6 4.8 41.3
District of Columbia at large* D 632 472 63 24 9.9 5.2 39.0 Continued on next page PEW RESEARCH CENTER 37 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
Population (thousands) Hispanic population (thousands) % Hispanic State Congressional district Incumbent party Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters % of Hispanics eligible to vote Florida 1 R 721 550 42 24 5.8 4.3 56.8 Florida 2 R 708 550 40 25 5.7 4.6 62.5 Florida 3 R 703 534 60 33 8.5 6.2 55.4 Florida 4 R 706 524 59 32 8.3 6.2 55.5 Florida 5 D 711 480 87 46 12.2 9.6 53.3 Florida 6 R 711 554 49 27 6.8 4.9 56.2 Florida 7 R 721 538 146 94 20.3 17.4 63.9 Florida 8 R 704 545 68 37 9.6 6.9 55.1 Florida 9 D 734 484 341 199 46.4 41.1 58.3 Florida 10 R 722 527 124 69 17.1 13.0 55.5 Florida 11 R 705 572 62 40 8.8 7.0 64.2 Florida 12 R 696 530 82 48 11.9 9.1 58.5 Florida 13 R 702 544 65 32 9.3 5.9 49.3 Florida 14 D 739 499 219 109 29.6 21.9 50.0 Florida 15 R 703 507 120 64 17.0 12.7 54.0 Florida 16 R 714 548 83 33 11.6 6.0 40.0 Florida 17 R 711 525 120 53 16.8 10.0 43.9 Florida 18 D 711 528 106 49 14.9 9.4 46.7 Florida 19 R 722 530 126 52 17.4 9.8 41.3 Florida 20 D 731 441 142 65 19.5 14.7 45.4 Florida 21 D 718 495 150 73 20.9 14.8 48.6 Florida 22 D 702 496 152 70 21.7 14.1 45.7 Florida 23 D 729 470 278 151 38.1 32.1 54.2 Florida 24 D 725 430 229 116 31.5 27.0 50.8 Florida 25 R 716 396 514 248 71.8 62.7 48.3 Florida 26 D 727 452 498 282 68.5 62.3 56.6 Florida 27 R 727 412 523 268 72.0 65.0 51.2
Georgia 1 R 715 519 48 19 6.7 3.7 39.6 Georgia 2 D 694 509 31 11 4.4 2.1 34.7 Georgia 3 R 705 510 39 18 5.5 3.5 46.8 Georgia 4 D 714 467 59 19 8.3 4.1 32.5 Continued on next page PEW RESEARCH CENTER 38 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
Population (thousands) Hispanic population (thousands) % Hispanic State Congressional district Incumbent party Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters % of Hispanics eligible to vote Illinois 16 R 706 522 60 23 8.5 4.4 38.4 Illinois 17 D 703 527 60 26 8.5 4.9 42.8 Illinois 18 R 720 547 19 10 2.6 1.8 52.3
Indiana 1 D 722 525 104 56 14.4 10.6 53.7 Indiana 2 R 718 515 61 20 8.5 3.8 31.9 Indiana 3 R 726 517 41 14 5.7 2.6 32.9 Indiana 4 R 730 536 40 16 5.5 2.9 39.0 Indiana 5 R 734 532 29 11 3.9 2.1 39.6 Indiana 6 R 721 545 15 5 2.1 1.0 34.5 Indiana 7 D 736 503 79 19 10.8 3.8 24.2 Indiana 8 R 722 554 16 8 2.2 1.5 51.3 Indiana 9 R 728 546 23 7 3.2 1.3 31.9
Iowa 1 D 766 577 26 10 3.4 1.8 39.5 Iowa 2 D 769 574 39 18 5.1 3.1 46.0 Iowa 3 R 779 560 49 17 6.3 3.0 34.4 Iowa 4 R 759 566 46 16 6.1 2.8 33.6
Kansas 1 R 725 517 106 40 14.7 7.7 37.4 Kansas 2 R 713 534 43 21 6.0 3.9 47.9 Kansas 3 R 731 502 85 30 11.6 6.0 35.4 Kansas 4 R 717 504 82 31 11.4 6.2 38.0
Kentucky 1 R 726 554 18 8 2.5 1.5 45.1 Kentucky 2 R 733 547 21 8 2.9 1.5 39.4 Kentucky 3 D 733 541 34 12 4.6 2.2 34.6 Kentucky 4 R 736 542 22 10 3.0 1.8 42.5 Kentucky 5 R 717 554 6 4 0.8 0.6 60.4 Kentucky 6 R 736 550 33 8 4.4 1.5 24.9 Continued on next page PEW RESEARCH CENTER 40 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
Population (thousands) Hispanic population (thousands) % Hispanic State Congressional district Incumbent party Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters % of Hispanics eligible to vote Louisiana 1 R 766 567 60 28 7.8 5.0 47.5 Louisiana 2 D 771 562 48 21 6.2 3.7 43.5 Louisiana 3 R 763 555 25 8 3.2 1.5 33.5 Louisiana 4 R 764 564 27 13 3.5 2.3 48.0 Louisiana 5 R 759 564 15 6 2.0 1.1 40.7 Louisiana 6 R 779 579 34 16 4.3 2.7 46.4
Maine 1 D 667 522 11 6 1.6 1.2 56.2 Maine 2 D 663 522 8 5 1.2 0.9 58.2
Maryland 1 R 728 555 25 10 3.4 1.7 39.0 Maryland 2 D 732 522 42 14 5.8 2.7 32.9 Maryland 3 D 724 522 50 18 6.9 3.4 35.0 Maryland 4 D 733 477 115 28 15.7 5.8 23.9 Maryland 5 D 737 529 50 18 6.8 3.3 35.5 Maryland 6 D 744 496 93 31 12.5 6.2 33.0 Maryland 7 D 739 545 28 14 3.8 2.5 49.2 Maryland 8 D 748 492 107 36 14.3 7.2 33.2
Massachusetts 1 D 724 545 115 68 15.8 12.6 59.7 Massachusetts 2 D 745 545 67 37 9.0 6.8 54.9 Massachusetts 3 D 735 517 123 60 16.7 11.6 48.8 Massachusetts 4 D 734 531 28 14 3.8 2.7 51.3 Massachusetts 5 D 743 517 58 28 7.8 5.4 48.0 Massachusetts 6 D 745 547 60 26 8.0 4.8 43.6 Massachusetts 7 D 745 492 154 66 20.6 13.4 42.8 Massachusetts 8 D 744 546 36 21 4.9 3.9 57.9 Massachusetts 9 D 731 563 34 18 4.7 3.1 51.9
Michigan 1 R 706 564 10 6 1.4 1.0 58.4 Michigan 2 R 710 515 63 24 8.9 4.7 38.7 Michigan 3 R 715 511 50 17 7.0 3.3 33.5 Continued on next page PEW RESEARCH CENTER 41 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
Population (thousands) Hispanic population (thousands) % Hispanic State Congressional district Incumbent party Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters % of Hispanics eligible to vote Missouri 6 R 755 563 28 13 3.7 2.4 48.1 Missouri 7 R 756 566 35 14 4.6 2.4 39.7 Missouri 8 R 749 571 12 6 1.6 1.0 49.9
Montana at large R 1,005 778 31 19 3.1 2.5 61.5
Nebraska 1 R 620 449 49 18 8.0 4.0 36.3 Nebraska 2 R 627 430 67 19 10.7 4.5 28.9 Nebraska 3 R 608 448 62 26 10.2 5.8 42.2
Nevada 1 D 672 393 299 101 44.5 25.7 33.8 Nevada 2 R 687 479 147 56 21.4 11.6 38.0 Nevada 3 R 710 498 118 61 16.6 12.1 51.3 Nevada 4 D 690 445 188 72 27.3 16.1 38.0
New Hampshire 1 D 660 509 19 10 2.9 2.0 52.7 New Hampshire 2 D 661 505 21 10 3.2 2.0 46.7
New Jersey 1 D 730 533 90 47 12.3 8.7 51.9 New Jersey 2 R 735 533 112 52 15.3 9.8 46.6 New Jersey 3 R 742 560 50 26 6.7 4.7 52.6 New Jersey 4 R 732 517 78 33 10.7 6.4 42.6 New Jersey 5 R 742 525 94 51 12.7 9.7 53.9 New Jersey 6 D 740 479 150 61 20.2 12.8 40.9 New Jersey 7 R 744 516 89 40 11.9 7.7 44.8 New Jersey 8 D 757 408 414 186 54.7 45.5 44.8 New Jersey 9 D 746 450 260 119 34.8 26.5 45.9 New Jersey 10 D 721 468 124 65 17.2 14.0 52.8 New Jersey 11 R 731 530 66 36 9.1 6.9 54.7 New Jersey 12 D 744 488 115 47 15.4 9.6 40.5 Continued on next page PEW RESEARCH CENTER 43 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
Population (thousands) Hispanic population (thousands) % Hispanic State Congressional district Incumbent party Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters % of Hispanics eligible to vote New Mexico 1 D 694 490 341 203 49.2 41.4 59.5 New Mexico 2 R 698 475 364 207 52.2 43.6 56.8 New Mexico 3 D 694 491 274 172 39.5 35.1 62.9
New York 1 D 724 516 92 37 12.7 7.2 40.7 New York 2 R 723 489 159 64 22.1 13.1 40.3 New York 3 D 715 510 74 35 10.3 6.9 47.8 New York 4 D 724 497 136 57 18.8 11.5 41.8 New York 5 D 756 461 145 73 19.2 15.9 50.5 New York 6 D 724 440 146 79 20.1 17.9 54.1 New York 7 D 752 416 329 161 43.7 38.8 49.1 New York 8 D 723 476 126 72 17.5 15.1 56.8 New York 9 D 730 446 79 41 10.8 9.1 51.5 New York 10 D 723 485 89 49 12.4 10.1 54.8 New York 11 R 730 500 114 61 15.6 12.1 53.2 New York 12 D 706 531 85 55 12.1 10.4 64.7 New York 13 D 757 457 413 219 54.6 47.8 52.9 New York 14 D 726 403 349 156 48.1 38.6 44.6 New York 15 D 725 370 481 228 66.4 61.7 47.4 New York 16 D 728 469 172 89 23.6 19.0 51.8 New York 17 D 733 469 152 58 20.7 12.4 38.2 New York 18 D 717 504 109 54 15.3 10.6 49.0 New York 19 R 712 555 48 25 6.7 4.5 52.9 New York 20 D 724 554 42 25 5.8 4.5 59.1 New York 21 D 721 556 21 13 2.9 2.3 60.4 New York 22 R 714 548 24 13 3.3 2.4 56.4 New York 23 R 717 551 25 16 3.5 2.9 62.8 New York 24 D 713 540 28 16 3.9 3.0 57.4 New York 25 D 722 542 57 33 7.9 6.2 58.8 New York 26 D 713 545 41 24 5.7 4.4 58.6 New York 27 R 719 560 18 11 2.5 1.9 59.4 Continued on next page PEW RESEARCH CENTER 44 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
Population (thousands) Hispanic population (thousands) % Hispanic State Congressional district Incumbent party Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters % of Hispanics eligible to vote North Carolina 1 D 734 530 56 12 7.7 2.3 21.8 North Carolina 2 R 767 524 90 27 11.7 5.1 29.8 North Carolina 3 R 748 567 53 22 7.1 3.9 41.6 North Carolina 4 D 760 530 81 23 10.6 4.4 29.0 North Carolina 5 R 741 549 65 15 8.7 2.7 23.2 North Carolina 6 R 741 554 45 10 6.1 1.9 22.9 North Carolina 7 D 749 545 70 16 9.3 3.0 23.5 North Carolina 8 R 742 526 65 12 8.8 2.3 18.2 North Carolina 9 R 761 522 61 20 8.0 3.7 32.2 North Carolina 10 R 742 559 44 13 5.9 2.4 30.7 North Carolina 11 R 735 566 40 9 5.4 1.5 21.5 North Carolina 12 D 775 502 112 21 14.5 4.1 18.4 North Carolina 13 R 758 537 63 15 8.4 2.8 23.5
North Dakota at large R 700 536 17 9 2.4 1.7 54.5
Ohio 1 R 731 530 22 8 3.0 1.5 37.9 Ohio 2 R 714 540 11 5 1.5 1.0 49.9 Ohio 3 D 734 512 50 16 6.8 3.2 33.0 Ohio 4 R 718 545 24 13 3.3 2.4 54.8 Ohio 5 R 726 551 31 18 4.3 3.2 55.9 Ohio 6 R 717 561 6 3 0.8 0.5 48.6 Ohio 7 R 727 552 13 6 1.8 1.1 47.3 Ohio 8 R 724 538 22 8 3.0 1.5 36.2 Ohio 9 D 710 540 73 42 10.3 7.8 57.5 Ohio 10 R 722 548 18 9 2.4 1.6 51.5 Ohio 11 D 698 524 27 16 3.8 3.1 60.0 Ohio 12 R 739 549 14 6 1.9 1.1 44.4 Ohio 13 D 716 558 21 11 3.0 2.0 51.6 Ohio 14 R 721 543 17 7 2.4 1.2 38.4 Ohio 15 R 726 546 12 6 1.6 1.2 52.5 Ohio 16 R 722 550 14 8 1.9 1.4 56.6 Continued on next page PEW RESEARCH CENTER 45 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org APPENDIX TABLE 2 (CONTINUED) Hispanic Eligible Voter Population, by Congressional District, 2012
Population (thousands) Hispanic population (thousands) % Hispanic State Congressional district Incumbent party Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters % of Hispanics eligible to vote Oklahoma 1 R 764 537 79 24 10.3 4.4 30.2 Oklahoma 2 R 749 561 34 14 4.5 2.4 40.2 Oklahoma 3 R 759 554 66 26 8.7 4.8 39.9 Oklahoma 4 R 772 569 61 30 8.0 5.3 49.6 Oklahoma 5 R 771 527 116 31 15.1 6.0 27.1
Oregon 1 D 790 543 112 37 14.1 6.8 33.2 Oregon 2 R 775 573 99 37 12.8 6.5 37.7 Oregon 3 D 789 577 84 28 10.7 4.9 33.7 Oregon 4 D 770 601 56 27 7.2 4.5 48.3 Oregon 5 D 776 545 124 39 15.9 7.2 31.7
Pennsylvania 1 D 711 499 112 60 15.7 12.0 53.7 Pennsylvania 2 D 713 541 42 27 5.9 5.0 63.9 Pennsylvania 3 R 703 546 13 8 1.9 1.4 58.2 Pennsylvania 4 R 713 537 47 23 6.7 4.2 47.9 Pennsylvania 5 R 704 558 13 8 1.8 1.4 58.8 Pennsylvania 6 R 720 533 40 21 5.5 3.9 51.6 Pennsylvania 7 R 717 537 20 10 2.8 1.8 47.5 Pennsylvania 8 R 711 532 31 16 4.3 3.1 53.7 Pennsylvania 9 R 708 555 14 7 1.9 1.2 48.3 Pennsylvania 10 R 708 553 27 15 3.8 2.7 54.5 Pennsylvania 11 R 702 549 33 16 4.7 3.0 49.5 Pennsylvania 12 R 701 550 9 6 1.4 1.0 58.7 Pennsylvania 13 D 716 501 81 39 11.3 7.8 48.6 Pennsylvania 14 D 711 568 14 8 1.9 1.5 61.5 Pennsylvania 15 R 708 528 99 51 14.0 9.7 51.6 Pennsylvania 16 R 707 503 122 56 17.3 11.1 45.5 Pennsylvania 17 D 707 545 55 28 7.7 5.2 51.6 Pennsylvania 18 R 704 555 9 5 1.3 1.0 59.3
Rhode Island 1 D 534 380 82 34 15.3 9.1 42.2 Rhode Island 2 D 517 391 57 24 11.0 6.2 42.7 Continued on next page PEW RESEARCH CENTER 46 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
Population (thousands) Hispanic population (thousands) % Hispanic State Congressional district Incumbent party Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters % of Hispanics eligible to vote South Carolina 1 R 699 522 47 18 6.7 3.5 39.2 South Carolina 2 R 670 498 35 12 5.2 2.5 35.1 South Carolina 3 R 666 502 31 9 4.6 1.8 29.0 South Carolina 4 R 674 485 51 14 7.6 2.9 27.3 South Carolina 5 R 675 498 27 10 3.9 2.0 36.9 South Carolina 6 D 668 501 31 9 4.7 1.8 29.5 South Carolina 7 R 672 508 28 8 4.1 1.6 29.1
South Dakota at large R 833 617 25 11 3.0 1.8 43.7
Tennessee 1 R 712 552 24 6 3.4 1.2 26.9 Tennessee 2 R 715 548 25 8 3.6 1.4 30.3 Tennessee 3 R 711 544 24 9 3.4 1.6 35.6 Tennessee 4 R 721 529 39 9 5.5 1.8 23.6 Tennessee 5 D 726 522 66 17 9.1 3.3 26.2 Tennessee 6 R 725 546 27 10 3.7 1.8 36.9 Tennessee 7 R 723 528 33 15 4.5 2.9 47.3 Tennessee 8 R 705 521 20 7 2.9 1.4 36.2 Tennessee 9 D 718 508 49 13 6.8 2.5 25.7
Texas 1 R 711 497 115 35 16.2 7.1 30.8 Texas 2 R 745 471 236 96 31.7 20.4 40.6 Texas 3 R 747 472 111 43 14.9 9.1 38.4 Texas 4 R 706 504 88 33 12.5 6.5 36.9 Texas 5 R 711 454 193 60 27.1 13.1 30.9 Texas 6 R 721 479 147 60 20.3 12.6 41.2 Texas 7 R 717 421 222 82 30.9 19.5 37.1 Texas 8 R 744 493 156 56 21.0 11.3 35.7 Texas 9 D 739 394 297 92 40.2 23.4 31.0 Texas 10 R 708 467 185 77 26.1 16.5 41.5 Texas 11 R 718 501 252 129 35.1 25.6 51.0 Continued on next page PEW RESEARCH CENTER 47 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
Population (thousands) Hispanic population (thousands) % Hispanic State Congressional district Incumbent party Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters % of Hispanics eligible to vote Texas 12 R 728 498 162 71 22.2 14.2 43.9 Texas 13 R 704 486 179 81 25.4 16.8 45.6 Texas 14 R 705 493 156 72 22.1 14.6 46.2 Texas 15 D 720 376 580 269 80.6 71.4 46.3 Texas 16 D 723 426 571 313 79.0 73.5 54.7 Texas 17 R 715 494 178 79 24.9 15.9 44.1 Texas 18 D 733 420 286 93 39.1 22.2 32.5 Texas 19 R 708 502 247 140 34.8 27.9 56.8 Texas 20 D 723 473 505 303 69.9 64.1 60.1 Texas 21 R 734 549 199 121 27.2 22.1 60.8 Texas 22 R 751 469 190 94 25.3 20.1 49.6 Texas 23 D 718 438 495 268 68.9 61.1 54.1 Texas 24 R 732 455 168 58 22.9 12.8 34.6 Texas 25 R 730 504 141 66 19.3 13.0 46.7 Texas 26 R 750 492 130 56 17.3 11.4 43.2 Texas 27 R 710 500 358 219 50.5 43.9 61.2 Texas 28 D 732 390 557 260 76.0 66.6 46.7 Texas 29 D 696 322 530 196 76.2 60.9 37.0 Texas 30 D 728 438 263 85 36.1 19.5 32.5 Texas 31 R 740 502 172 87 23.3 17.3 50.4 Texas 32 R 734 465 210 75 28.6 16.1 35.7 Texas 33 D 704 313 462 136 65.7 43.3 29.3 Texas 34 D 716 404 598 310 83.5 76.6 51.8 Texas 35 D 746 459 465 242 62.3 52.7 52.1 Texas 36 R 714 487 157 65 22.0 13.3 41.3
Utah 1 R 712 459 86 32 12.1 7.0 37.4 Utah 2 R 704 463 99 37 14.1 8.0 37.4 Utah 3 R 711 464 72 29 10.2 6.3 40.3 Utah 4 D 729 444 122 39 16.7 8.9 32.4 Continued on next page PEW RESEARCH CENTER 48 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org APPENDIX TABLE 2 (CONTINUED) Hispanic Eligible Voter Population, by Congressional District, 2012
Population (thousands) Hispanic population (thousands) % Hispanic State Congressional district Incumbent party Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters % of Hispanics eligible to vote Vermont at large D 626 493 10 6 1.6 1.3 63.8
Virginia 1 R 748 539 67 30 9.0 5.5 44.0 Virginia 2 R 722 537 52 27 7.2 5.1 52.0 Virginia 3 D 752 564 43 20 5.7 3.6 47.5 Virginia 4 R 741 549 38 15 5.1 2.7 39.6 Virginia 5 R 726 557 25 10 3.4 1.7 38.8 Virginia 6 R 738 564 33 12 4.5 2.2 36.8 Virginia 7 R 738 532 38 16 5.2 2.9 41.0 Virginia 8 D 768 498 146 49 19.0 9.9 33.8 Virginia 9 R 724 573 15 5 2.0 0.8 32.9 Virginia 10 R 758 487 93 28 12.2 5.7 30.1 Virginia 11 D 771 484 138 54 17.9 11.2 39.2
Washington 1 D 692 472 56 23 8.0 4.8 40.8 Washington 2 D 689 498 72 25 10.4 5.0 34.5 Washington 3 R 686 492 58 22 8.4 4.4 37.7 Washington 4 R 695 420 257 84 37.0 20.0 32.6 Washington 5 R 678 510 40 20 5.9 4.0 51.2 Washington 6 D 687 529 48 24 7.0 4.5 49.3 Washington 7 D 697 539 53 28 7.6 5.1 52.4 Washington 8 R 690 474 75 25 10.8 5.3 33.3 Washington 9 D 694 452 77 23 11.1 5.2 30.3 Washington 10 D 689 494 73 31 10.5 6.3 43.0
West Virginia 1 R 615 488 6 4 1.0 0.7 55.6 West Virginia 2 R 628 488 12 6 2.0 1.3 50.9 West Virginia 3 D 613 484 5 3 0.8 0.7 64.6
Wisconsin 1 R 713 522 66 27 9.3 5.2 40.9 Wisconsin 2 D 729 544 44 16 6.0 2.9 35.6 Wisconsin 3 D 712 552 15 7 2.1 1.3 48.6 Continued on next page PEW RESEARCH CENTER 49 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org
Population (thousands) Hispanic population (thousands) % Hispanic State Congressional district Incumbent party Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters Total Eligible voters % of Hispanics eligible to vote Wisconsin 4 D 715 486 114 42 16.0 8.7 36.9 Wisconsin 5 R 716 541 39 17 5.5 3.1 43.0 Wisconsin 6 R 709 543 29 11 4.1 2.1 39.3 Wisconsin 7 R 711 544 14 5 1.9 1.0 39.3 Wisconsin 8 R 719 537 33 11 4.6 2.1 34.9
Wyoming at large R 576 429 54 31 9.4 7.1 56.3 Note: The 14 competitive House of Representatives districts as identified by Cook Political Report, Real Clear Politics and CNN are bolded. Eligible voters are persons ages 18 and older who are U.S. citizens. The incumbent party indicates the party of the U.S. representative currently in office in that district. *The District of Columbia elects a non-voting delegate to Congress. Source: American FactFinder (2012 ACS 1-year estimates, tables B05003 and B05003I) PEW RESEARCH CENTER