Please refer to the disclaimer towards the end of the document.

Institutional Equities

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Reuters: SUPI.BO; Bloomberg: SI IN

Supreme Industries
Near-term Lower Margins With Inventory Loss; Upgrade To Buy
Supreme Industries (SIL) 1QFY15 net revenue grew by a mere 7.7% at Rs7,596mn
because of a 7.0% decline in pipe volume on demand deferment following a fall in
PVC prices. In the wake of inventory loss of ~Rs62mn on a ~Rs6-7/kg fall in PVC pipe
prices following the decline in crude oil prices, PVC divisions EBITDA margin fell
270bps at 12.6%. Consequently, operating margin declined 233bps at 10.7% against
our/Bloomberg estimate of 13.4%/13.7%, respectively. On further fall in crude oil
prices, there can be inventory loss in 2QFY15 as well. We have cut our PAT estimates
by 8.9%/4.7% for FY15/FY16, respectively. However, PVC prices would stabilise in
November 2014 and increase after that following the imposition of anti-dumping duty
on PVC imports from China in September 2014 which led to restocking of products at
the distributor level. With the fall in crude oil prices, exhaustion of high-cost
inventory by 2QFY15 and reduced imports from China, SIL is expected to register a
growth of 17.8% in FY15 with better margins. We believe the current weakness in the
stock price provides a good opportunity to buy as the structural story is intact. We
expect SIL to post 19.5%/25.9% revenue/net profit CAGRs over FY14-FY17E.
Therefore, we have upgraded our rating on SIL to Buy (from Accumulate) with a TP of
Rs683 (Rs621 earlier) based on 19x average FY16E-FY17E EPS (FY16E EPS earlier).
Pressure on margins because of inventory loss: With falling crude oil prices, PVC pipe
prices fell by ~Rs6-7/kg, while SILs high-cost inventory led to ~Rs62mn of inventory loss in
1QFY15. Further, amid declining PVC prices, distributors/dealers cut pipe inventory which
resulted in a 7% fall in pipe volume. With a lower share of cross-laminated film, packaging
product divisions EBITDA margin declined 260bps. Consequently, SIL reported an 11.5%
fall in EBITDA at Rs814mn, 27.2%/26.3% below our/Bloomberg estimates, respectively. SIL
has high-cost inventory of ~10,000tn at import cost of ~US$1,052/tn as against the current
cost of ~US$1,010/tn and, therefore, there can be inventory loss in 2QFY15 as well.
However, its quantum is likely to be lower as SIL is having lean inventory, which is reflected
by the fact that its debt declined to Rs7,696mn in 1QFY15 from Rs9,033mn in 1QFY14.
Healthy capex and low crude prices led to healthy profitability: SIL has earmarked
capex of Rs2.5bn for FY15. It will spend Rs1.35bn on its Kharagpur complex for making
protective packaging, pipes and various plastic products by April 2015. SIL commissioned a
composite cylinder facility in July 2014 and has started executing export orders. Post
stabilisation of PVC prices at a lower level likely around November 2014, demand for PVC
pipes should improve strongly, more so with restocking at the distributor level and also the
margins in PVC pipes could improve because of lower raw material costs. The government
imposed anti-dumping duty of US$120-US$150/tn in September 2014 on PVC imports from
China (~40,000-50,000tn/month) which is likely to harden PVC prices from December 2014.

BUY
Sector: Plastics
CMP: Rs588
Target Price: Rs683
Upside: 16%
Jignesh Kamani, CFA
jignesh.kamani@nirmalbang.com
+91-22-3926 8239
Ruchita Maheshwari
ruchita.maheshwari@nirmalbang.com
+91-22-3926 8023
Key Data
Current Shares O/S (mn) 127.0
Mkt Cap (Rsbn/US$bn) 74.6/1.2
52 Wk H / L (Rs) 689/366
Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 88,947

Price Performance (%)

1 M 6 M 1 Yr
Supreme Ind. (10.4) 21.1 50.3
Nifty Index (4.2) 14.8 25.7
Source: Bloomberg

Y/E June (Rsmn) consolidated 1QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 Chg. (YoY)% Chg. (QoQ)% FY13 FY14 Chg. (%)
Net sales 7,051 12,773 7,596 7.7 (40.5) 34,040 39,622 16.4
Net RM costs and finished goods purchases 4,573 8,736 5,113 11.8 (41.5) 22,390 26,674 19.1
% of sales 64.8 68.4 67.3 - - 65.8 67.3 -
Employee expenses 322 432 366 13.6 (15.4) 1,275 1,439 12.9
% of sales 4.6 3.4 4.8 - - 3.7 3.6 -
Other expenses 1,237 1,381 1,303 5.3 (5.7) 5,018 5,621 12.0
% of sales 17.5 10.8 17.1 - - 14.7 14.2 -
Operating profit 920 2,223 814 (11.5) (63.4) 5,356 5,888 9.9
OPM (%) 13.0 17.4 10.7 - - 15.7 14.9 -
Interest costs 167 174 139 (16.9) (20.5) 523 761 45.5
Depreciation 237 275 348 46.8 26.7 817 1,015 24.3
Other income 11 10 4 (64.3) (63.3) (2) 32 -
PBT 527 1,784 331 (37.1) (81.5) 4,014 4,143 3.2
Provision for tax 176 613 113 (36.0) (81.6) 1,330 1,400 5.3
Effective tax rate (%) 33.4 34.3 34.0 - - 33.1 33.8
Share of JV/associate cos. less MI 79 23 32 (59.4) 42.6 217 91 (58.1)
Reported PAT 430 1,194 251 (41.7) (79.0) 2,901 2,834 (2.3)
Extra-ordinary income - 97 - - - 61 249 307.0
Adjusted PAT 430 1,098 251 (41.7) (77.2) 2,840 2,585 (9.0)
NPM (%) 6.1 8.6 3.3 - - 8.3 6.5 -
EPS (Rs) 3.4 8.6 2.0 (41.7) (77.2) 22.4 20.3 (9.0)
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
20 October 2014




Institutional Equities
2
Supreme Industries
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
Y/E June (Rsmn) consolidated FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Revenue 29,279 34,040 39,622 46,685 55,666 67,554
YoY (%) 18.6 16.3 16.4 17.8 19.2 21.4
EBITDA 4,719 5,356 5,888 6,279 7,626 9,525
EBITDA margin (%) 16.1 15.7 14.9 13.5 13.7 14.1
Reported PAT 2,417 2,901 2,834 3,624 3,969 5,163
Adj. PAT 2,399 2,840 2,585 3,167 3,969 5,163
Diluted EPS (Rs) 18.9 22.4 20.4 24.9 31.3 40.7
YoY (%) 24.4 18.4 (8.9) 22.5 25.3 30.1
RoE (%) 38.6 36.0 27.0 27.7 29.1 31.3
RoCE (%) 25.5 25.3 22.7 21.9 24.0 26.3
Dividend yield (%) 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.0
P/E (x) 31.1 26.3 28.9 23.6 18.8 14.5
P/BV (x) 10.7 8.5 7.2 6.0 5.0 4.1
EV/ EBITDA (x) 16.3 14.6 13.2 12.3 10.1 8.0
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Exhibit 2: Segment-wise revenue/margin details
Y/E June (Rsmn) 1QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 YoY (%) QoQ (%) FY13 FY14 YoY (%)
Sales volume (tn)
Plastic piping 32,337 62,705 30,086 (7.0) (52.0) 175,513 187,948 7.1
Packaging products 6,915 11,120 7,482 8.2 (32.7) 36,825 38,717 5.1
Industrial products 7,486 8,784 8,519 13.8 (3.0) 39,793 33,621 (15.5)
Consumer products 3,240 4,209 2,926 (9.7) (30.5) 18,519 15,177 (18.0)
Total 49,978 86,818 49,013 (1.9) (43.5) 270,650 275,463 1.8
Revenue (Rsmn)
Plastic piping 3,670 6,940 3,520 (4.1) (49.3) 17,020 20,600 21.0
Packaging products 1,290 2,390 1,590 23.3 (33.5) 6,980 8,100 16.0
Industrial products 1,340 1,650 1,590 18.7 (3.6) 6,070 6,000 (1.2)
Consumer products 504 780 510 1.2 (34.6) 2,752 2,594 (5.7)
Total 7,051 12,773 7,596 7.7 (40.5) 32,822 37,294 13.6
Realisation(Rs/kg)
Plastic piping 113.5 110.7 117.0 3.1 5.7 97.0 109.6 13.0
Packaging products 186.6 214.9 212.5 13.9 (1.1) 189.5 209.2 10.4
Industrial products 179.0 187.8 186.6 4.3 (0.6) 152.5 178.5 17.0
Consumer products 155.6 185.3 174.3 12.0 (5.9) 148.6 170.9 15.0
Blended realisation 141.1 147.1 155.0 9.8 5.3 121.3 135.4 11.6
EBITDA (%)
Plastic piping 15.3 17.0 12.6 (270)bps (440)bps 16.0 15.1 (94)bps
Packaging products 15.7 23.0 13.1 (260)bps (990)bps 20.3 18.4 (193)bps
Industrial products 9.0 16.0 9.3 30bps (670)bps 12.0 10.9 (110)bps
Consumer products 14.0 15.7 8.0 (600)bps (770)bps 12.2 11.4 (79)bps
Blended margin 13.0 17.4 10.7 (233)bps (669)bps 16.3 15.8 (53)bps
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Exhibit 3: Our estimates versus actual performance
(Rsmn) 1QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 YoY (%) QoQ (%) NBIE Chg. (%) 1QFY15BBE Chg.(%)
Revenue 7,051 12,773 7,596 7.7 (40.5) 8,376 (9.3) 8,039 (5.5)
EBITDA 920 2,223 814 (11.5) (63.4) 1,118 (27.2) 1,105 (26.3)
Core EBITDA 920 2,084 814 (11.5) (60.9) 1,118 (27.2) 1,105 (26.3)
EBITDA (%) 13.0 17.4 10.7 (233)bps (669)bps 13.4 (263)bps 13.7 (303)bps
Core EBITDA (%) 13.0 16.6 10.7 (233)bps (588)bps 13.4 (263)bps 13.7 (303)bps
Adjusted PAT 430 1,098 251 (41.7) (77.2) 492 (49.0) 480 (47.7)
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research






Institutional Equities
3
Supreme Industries
Exhibit 4: Change in our estimates
Y/E June Earlier estimates New estimates Change (%)
(Rsmn) FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E
Sales 47,255 56,346 68,295 46,685 55,666 67,554 (1.2) (1.2) (1.1)
EBITDA 6,545 7,719 9,644 6,279 7,626 9,525 (4.1) (1.2) (1.2)
EBITDA (%) 13.9 13.7 14.1 13.5 13.7 14.1 (40)bps - (2)bps
APAT 3,475 4,164 5,391 3,167 3,969 5,163 (8.9) (4.7) (4.2)
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 5: One-year forward P/E band

Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 6: One-year forward EV/EBITDA band

Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research



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Institutional Equities
4
Supreme Industries
Financials (consolidated)
Exhibit 7: Income statement
Y/E June (Rsmn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Net sales 29,279 34,040 39,622 46,685 55,666 67,554
Growth (%) 18.6 16.3 16.4 17.8 19.2 21.4
Raw material costs 19,614 23,011 27,492 31,279 37,073 44,991
Power & fuel costs 1,179 1,420 1,393 1,867 2,227 2,432
Staff costs 1,125 1,275 1,439 1,541 1,837 2,229
Others manufacturing expenses 1,739 1,884 2,068 2,358 2,895 3,513
SG&A expenses 903 1,094 1,342 3,361 4,008 4,864
Total expenditure 24,560 28,684 33,734 40,405 48,040 58,029
EBITDA 4,719 5,356 5,888 6,279 7,626 9,525
Growth (%) 32.0 13.5 9.9 6.6 21.5 24.9
EBITDA margin (%) 16.1 15.7 14.9 13.5 13.7 14.1
Other income 28 (2) 32 187 111 135
Extra-ordinary income - - - 686 - -
Interest costs 548 523 761 614 542 467
Gross profit 4,199 4,831 5,159 6,538 7,196 9,193
Growth (%) 31.5 15.1 6.8 26.7 10.1 27.8
Depreciation 725 817 1,015 1,282 1,441 1,651
Profit before tax 3,474 4,014 4,143 5,256 5,755 7,542
Growth (%) 34.9 15.5 3.2 26.9 9.5 31.0
Tax 1,150 1,330 1,400 1,752 1,918 2,514
Effective tax rate (%) 33.1 33.1 33.8 33.3 33.3 33.3
Net profit 2,324 2,684 2,744 3,504 3,837 5,028
Growth (%) 36.9 15.5 2.2 27.7 9.5 31.0
Share in profit/(loss) of associates 93 217 91 120 132 135
PAT after associate cos. 2,417 2,901 2,834 3,624 3,969 5,163
Extra-ordinary items 18 61 249 457 - -
Adjusted PAT 2,399 2,840 2,585 3,167 3,969 5,163
Growth (%) 24.4 18.4 (9.0) 22.5 25.3 30.1
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Exhibit 9: Balance sheet
Y/E June (Rsmn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Equity 254 254 254 254 254 254
Reserves 6,713 8,536 10,138 12,207 14,532 17,902
Net worth 6,967 8,790 10,392 12,461 14,786 18,156
Short-term loans 2,462 2,381 2,052 1,552 1,502 1,452
Long-term loans 1,049 2,318 2,646 2,396 2,346 2,296
Total loans 3,511 4,698 4,699 3,949 3,849 3,749
Deferred tax liability 833 907 1,168 1,237 1,314 1,414
Liabilities 11,311 14,395 16,258 17,647 19,949 23,318
Gross block 12,451 16,068 17,538 19,719 22,512 25,800
Depreciation 5,057 5,790 6,659 7,941 9,382 11,033
Net block 7,394 10,277 10,879 11,778 13,130 14,767
Capital work-in-progress 338 330 181 493 788 903
Long-term Investments 887 1,098 1,074 1,074 1,074 1,074
Inventories 3,140 4,668 4,976 6,285 7,473 9,027
Debtors 1,712 2,031 2,348 2,723 3,247 3,941
Cash 144 239 246 532 468 1,140
Liquid Investments 1 1 - - - -
Other current assets 1,706 1,679 2,063 2,313 2,759 3,348
Total current assets 6,702 8,618 9,633 11,854 13,946 17,455
Creditors 2,173 3,461 2,777 4,377 5,204 6,286
Other current liabilities 1,837 2,468 2,731 3,175 3,785 4,594
Total current liabilities 4,010 5,929 5,508 7,552 8,990 10,880
Net current assets 2,692 2,689 4,125 4,302 4,957 6,575
Total assets 11,311 14,395 16,259 17,647 19,949 23,318
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Exhibit 8:Cash flow
Y/E June (Rsmn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
EBIT 3,994 4,539 4,873 4,997 6,185 7,874
Inc./(dec.) in working capital 131 97 (1,428) 109 (719) (946)
Cash flow from operations 4,125 4,637 3,445 5,106 5,467 6,928
Other income 28 (2) 32 187 111 135
Depreciation 725 817 1,015 1,282 1,441 1,651
Deferred liabilities 37 74 261 70 77 100
Interest paid (-) (548) (523) (761) (614) (542) (467)
Tax paid (-) (1,150) (1,330) (1,649) (1,752) (1,918) (2,514)
Dividend paid (-) (664) (817) (1,189) (1,556) (1,644) (1,793)
Share in profit/(loss) of associates 93 217 91 120 132 135
Extra-ordinary items (18) - - 686 - -
Net cash from operations 2,628 3,072 1,245 3,529 3,124 4,175
Capital expenditure (-) (779) (3,694) (1,468) (2,493) (3,088) (3,403)
Net cash after capex 1,849 (622) (223) 1,036 36 772
Inc./(dec.) in short-term borrowing (602) (81) (329) (500) (50) (50)
Inc./(dec.) in long-term borrowing (1,030) 1,269 329 (250) (50) (50)
Inc./(dec.) in preference capital - - - - - -
Inc./(dec.) in borrowings (1,632) 1,187 0 (750) (100) (100)
(Inc.)/dec. in investments 29 (211) 24 - - -
Equity issue/(buyback) - - - - - -
Cash from financial activities (1,603) 977 24 (750) (100) (100)
Others/real estate revenue (244) (261) 207 - 0 (0)
Opening cash 142 144 239 246 532 468
Closing cash 144 239 246 532 468 1,140
Change in cash 2 94 8 286 (64) 672
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Exhibit 10: Key ratios
Y/E June FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Per share (Rs)
EPS 18.9 22.4 20.4 24.9 31.3 40.7
Book value 54.8 69.2 81.8 98.1 116.4 143.0
Valuation (x)
P/E 31.1 26.3 28.9 23.6 18.8 14.5
P/sales 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.1
P/BV 10.7 8.5 7.2 6.0 5.0 4.1
EV/EBITDA 16.3 14.6 13.2 12.3 10.1 8.0
EV/sales 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.1
Return ratios (%)
RoCE 25.5 25.3 22.7 21.9 24.0 26.3
RoE 38.6 36.0 27.0 27.7 29.1 31.3
Margins (%)
EBITDA margin 16.1 15.7 14.9 13.5 13.7 14.1
PBIT margin 13.6 13.3 12.3 10.7 11.1 11.7
PBT margin 11.9 11.8 10.5 11.3 10.3 11.2
PAT margin 8.2 8.3 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.6
Turnover ratio
Asset turnover ratio (x) 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9
Avg. inventory period (days) 46.0 58.6 53.1 56.0 56.0 56.0
Avg. collection period (days) 21.0 21.5 21.3 21.0 21.0 21.0
Avg. payment period (days) 31.9 43.4 29.6 39.0 39.0 39.0
Solvency ratios (x)
Debt-equity 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2
Interest coverage 7.3 8.7 6.4 8.1 11.4 16.9
Debt/EBITDA
0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4
Growth (%)
Sales 18.6 16.3 16.4 17.8 19.2 21.4
EBITDA 32.0 13.5 9.9 6.6 21.5 24.9
PAT 24.4 18.4 (9.0) 22.5 25.3 30.1
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research




Institutional Equities
5
Supreme Industries
Rating track
Date Rating Market price (Rs) Target price (Rs)
14 December 2012 Buy 292 385
24 January 2013 Buy 296 385
26 April 2013 Buy 314 385
9 July 2013 Buy 332 385
19 July 2013 Buy 360 450
7 October 2013 Buy 343 450
30 October 2013 Hold 395 450
7 January 2014 Hold 424 450
23 January 2014 Hold 452 491
11 April 2014 Hold 484 491
25 April 2014 Hold 479 491
4 July 2014 Accumulate 550 621
22 July 2014 Accumulate 589 621
10 October 2014 Accumulate 643 621
20 October 2014 Buy 588 683
9




Institutional Equities
6
Supreme Industries
Disclaimer
Stock Ratings Absolute Returns
BUY > 15%
ACCUMULATE -5% to15%
SELL < -5%
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Team Details:


Name Email Id Direct Line

Rahul Arora CEO rahul.arora@nirmalbang.com -

Dealing

Ravi Jagtiani Dealing Desk ravi.jagtiani@nirmalbang.com +91 22 3926 8230, +91 22 6636 8833

Pradeep Kasat Dealing Desk pradeep.kasat@nirmalbang.com +91 22 3926 8100/8101, +91 22 6636 8831

Michael Pillai Dealing Desk michael.pillai@nirmalbang.com +91 22 3926 8102/8103, +91 22 6636 8830

Umesh Bharadia Dealing Desk umesh.bharadia@nirmalbang.com +91-22-39268226


Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd.
Correspondence Address
B-2, 301/302, Marathon Innova,
Nr. Peninsula Corporate Park
Lower Parel (W), Mumbai-400013.
Board No. : 91 22 3926 8000/1
Fax. : 022 3926 8010