Flood hydrology for bridge

Vazken ANDRASSIAN
y gy g
engineering
1
Vazken ANDRASSIAN
Deputy Scientific Director for Hydrology & Hydraulics
Irstea, France
Who should care for floods?
2
Who should care for floods?
3
Paris, 1910
4
High water marks on a Loire River bridge
5
Bridges are not the only preoccupation
of civil engineers g
6
What can we do against floods?
Not much, except for : Not much, except for :
build dikes
which may increase flood risks downstream and which may increase flood risks downstream and
can be overtopped
build storage dams
which necessarily have a limited storage capacity
and will be transparent once they are full
design adequately our civil works (bridges and design adequately our civil works (bridges and
dams) to avoid damage
forecast floods in advance to reduce damages
7
g
What do we know for sure about
floods? floods?
8
Flood facts
Of course they are caused by heavy Of course they are caused by heavy
precipitation (or sudden snowmelt)
H d l i l h t Hydrological processes happen at a
catchment (watershed) scale: what
t i t i t i it ti b t counts is not point precipitation but
catchment-scale precipitation (not easy
t ) to measure)
9
catchment PE
AE
areal precipitation
Can I build a bridge here ?
10 Outils pour lvaluation
des bilans simuls
Slection de modles
par une approche empirique
Conclusion &
Perspectives
Flood facts
The floods we are interested in have (for The floods we are interested in have (for
most of them) never been seen: their
characteristics result froman characteristics result from an
extrapolation process
E t l ti i ith Extrapolating is neither easy nor
univocal: it requires models and
h th hypotheses
11
On extrapolating peak discharges
40
s
)
20
30
s
c
h
a
r
g
e

(
m
3
/
s
?
0
10
P
e
a
k

d
i
s
?
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Return period (years)
12
On extrapolating peak discharges
40
s
)
20
30
s
c
h
a
r
g
e

(
m
3
/
s
0
10
P
e
a
k

d
i
s
return period =
55 yrs
400 yrs
150 yrs 1100 yrs
-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
Gumbel reduced variate = -ln[-ln(cumulative Frequency)]
13
On extrapolating peak discharges
40
s
)
20
30
s
c
h
a
r
g
e

(
m
3
/
s
0
10
P
e
a
k

d
i
s
return period =
55 yrs
400 yrs
150 yrs 1100 yrs
-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
Gumbel reduced variate = -ln[-ln(cumulative Frequency)]
14
On extrapolating peak discharges
40
s
)
20
30
s
c
h
a
r
g
e

(
m
3
/
s
0
10
P
e
a
k

d
i
s
400 yrs
-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
Gumbel reduced variate = -ln[-ln(cumulative Frequency)]
15
Flood facts
Statistical laws that we use for Statistical laws that we use for
extrapolation are hypotheses
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Illustration on a recent intercomparison
of flood extrapolation methods p
17
Flood facts
Statistical laws that we use for Statistical laws that we use for
extrapolation assume a stationary climate
18
What progress has been made over the
last decades to account for climate last decades to account for climate
change in flood design?
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Ongoing climate change
20
21
Accounting for climate change when
extrapolating floods p g
Two main approaches Two main approaches
Approaches based on hydrological
d lli modelling
Approaches based on past flow record pp oac es based o past o eco d
analysis (elasticity-approaches)
22
Hydrological models
temprature prcipitations
catchment
alt.(m)
y
d
r
o
l
o
g
i
c
a
l

m
o
d
e
l
010km
h
y
23
simulated
discharge

An example for France

(Explore 2070 project) ( p p j )
1 scenario : A1B 7 GCM 1 method 2 models X X X 1 scenario : A1B 7 GCM 1 method 2 models
- Isba-Modcou
- GR4J
14 projections
Choice of
emission scenario
for G.G.
Climatic modelling
(GCM)
Downscaling
X X X
Hydrological
modelling
Statistical
analysis of
results

24
Upcoming changes in summer temperatures
[future (2046-2065)-reference]/reference (1961-1990)
25
Upcoming changes in winter rainfall
[future (2046-2065)-reference]/reference (1961-1990)
26
Simulated evolution of annual discharge
27
10-year return period flood evolution
28
Studies based on catchment
elasticity
29
Empirical study of catchment elasticity
For some rivers, we have observations of ,
climate and streamflow over long
(sometimes contrasted) periods
Long periods can be divided into sub-
periods of reasonable length (~10 years) pe ods o easo abe e gt ( 0 yea s)
where we can assess the variations of
hydrological response
i
Q y g p
climatic characteristics

i
Q

i i i
T E P , ,
30
Summary
Q
Clim
31
Summary
Q
Clim
32
Each point corresponds to a 10-year long sub-period
Actual example
33
Overall results over French catchments
Precipitation elasticity Temperature elasticity
34
Potential of elasticity studies
Where we have long streamflowrecords, Where we have long streamflow records,
a possibility to predict the impact of
climate change without using a model climate change without using a model
But for extreme floods we still need
some form of extrapolation so e o o e apoa o
35
A few conclusions
36
A few conclusions
Always keep in mind that there are no Always keep in mind that there are no
perfect models
but that you need anyhow to make a but t at you eed a y o to a e a
choice
37
Which model should be chosen?
m
,

S
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m
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S
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e
n

B
C
o
u
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t
e
s
y

38
C
Which model is the most similar to the
Spitzfire? p
m
,

S
M
H
I
B
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g
s
t
r

m
o
f

S
t
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n

B
C
o
u
r
t
e
s
y

39
C
Which model can fly?
m
,

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H
I
B
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s
t
r

m
o
f

S
t
e
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B
C
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40
C
A few conclusions
For projections into a changing climate, For projections into a changing climate,
only use:
widely tested models (in varied climatic settings) widely tested models (in varied climatic settings)
parsimonious models
structures which have shown to be robust (drought ( g
/ wet years)
41
My own view of robust model structures
Coron L V Andrassian C Perrin J Lerat J Coron, L., V. Andrassian, C. Perrin, J . Lerat, J .
Vaze, M. Bourqui, and F. Hendrickx, 2012.
Crash testing hydrological models in
contrasted climate conditions: An
experiment on 216 Australian catchments,
Water Resources Research, 48.
Andrassian, V., Perrin, C., Berthet, L., Le
Moine, N., Lerat, J ., Loumagne, C., Oudin,
L., Mathevet, T., Ramos, M.H., Valry, A.,
2009. Crash tests for a standardized
evaluation of hydrological models. Hydrol.
Earth Syst Sci 13: 1757-1764 Earth. Syst. Sci. 13: 1757-1764.
Perrin, C., Michel, C. and Andrassian, V.,
2003. Improvement of a parsimonious
model for streamflow simulation. J ournal of
Hydrology, 279: 275-289.
Perrin, C., C. Michel et V. Andrassian, 2001.
Does a large number of parameters
enhance model performance? Comparative
assessment of common catchment model
structures on 429 catchments. J ournal of
Hydrology, 242(3-4): 275-301.
42
Hydrology, 242 (3 4): 275 301.
A few conclusions
Keep in mind that the climatic predictions Keep in mind that the climatic predictions
have their own uncertainties
and that even the good hydrologic
d l d t b d t l lib t d models need to be adequately calibrated
43
Robust calibration in essential for climate
change studies
hydrological
ETP
catchment
characteristics
6
9
12
dbit
observ
g
hydrological
model
climatic conditions A
ETP
T
P
flowsimulationA
0
3
6
01-oct 21-oct 10-nov 30-nov 20-dic
parameter
f
parameters
climaticconditionsA
calibration
transfer
ETP
catchment
characteristics
3
4
dbit
dbit simul
hydrological
model
ETP
T
P
flow simulation B
0
1
2
18-sep 08-oct 28-oct 17-nov 07-dic
44
climaticconditionsB
flowsimulationB
Andrassian, V., Le Moine, N., Perrin, C., Ramos, M.H., Oudin, L., Mathevet, T., Lerat, J ., Berthet, L. 2012. All that glitters is not gold: the
case of calibrating hydrological models. Hydrological Processes, vol. 26, p. 2206 2210.
A few conclusions
Always remain modest Always remain modest
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Well-designed bridge
(engineers of the 1
st
century AD) ( g y )
46
The Roman bridge in Vaison la Romaine, France
Well-designed bridge
(engineers of the 1
st
century AD) ( g y )
47
The Roman bridge in Vaison la Romaine, France (Sept. 1992)
Badly-designed bridge
(engineers of the 20
th
century) ( g y)
Loire River
48
Loire River,
1983
Thank you for your attention
Loire River
49
Loire River,
1983
Uncertainties assessment for the mean
average flow average flow
50
Low-flows evolution
51