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DATA STATUS,
2011
DATA STATUS
. 1/45, 11070
:+381 11 3017832,-33,-34, :+381 11 3017835
E-mail: info@datastatus.rs, Web: www.datastatus.rs
,
, . .
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.
150 (CD )
ISBN
978-86-7478-242-2
:
(a 179015),
.
............................................................................................. 7
ABSTRACT ......................................................................................... 8
..................................................................... 9
1. ...... 13
1.1. ............ 14
1.2. .............................. 22
1.3. .................................................. 27
1.4. ......................................................... 31
1.5. .......................................... 35
1.6. ................................................................... 41
1.7. ................................. 49
2.
, , ........................................... 57
2.1. ................................ 58
2.2. .................................... 66
2.2.1. ......................... 68
2.2.2. ................. 71
2.3. ....... 81
2.3.1. .............................................. 82
2.3.2. ................................. 85
2.3.3. ............................... 87
2.4. ............................................... 90
2.4.1. ........................................ 91
2.4.2. . 94
2.4.3. ........................................................ 96
2.4.4. ............................................... 99
2.4.5. .... 100
2.5. ........ 103
2.5.1. .................. 103
2.5.2. Freehold ......................................... 113
2.5.3. Leasehold ....................................... 119
3. .......................... 124
3.1. .......................................... 126
3.2. ....................................................... 136
3.3. ............................................................. 141
....................................................... 152
............................................................................... 158
.................................................................................. 162
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ABSTRACT
Real estate market is one of the main sources of welfare of the
national economy, as well as an indicator of economic and social
strength and financial stability. Changes in supply and demand
in the real estate market and the price developments have
implications for the broader economy. The aim of the
monograph is to provide the basic knowledge required for
investing in real estate through a qualitative and quantitative
analysis and highlight the attractiveness of investment in real
estate. The importance of investment in real estate can be seen
through the possibility of real estate to generate future cash
flows, similar financial instruments traded on financial
markets. However, the nature of supply and demand in the real
estate market, the yield that they create, cash flow, timing, risk
and other important determinants differ significantly from
those in the financial markets. The monograph points to the
economic aspects of the real estate market, viewing them as an
investment in their ability to generate profits. The monograph
is an analysis of the real estate market with the consideration
of economic, legal and institutional aspects, explained in
quantitative methods and techniques used in the analysis of
investments in real estate as well as analysis of trends in
markets, both developed countries and in countries with
emerging markets including Serbia.
Key words:
real estate
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. :
/
( 10%)
.
;
.
,
. , .
,
.
.
.
(IRR NPV).
.
, :
( );
88
.
:
, .
.
.
IRR NPV
.
,
,
IRR NPV,
.
.
, (IRR NPV)
.
.
. :
1. nte Carlo;
2. Latin Hypercybe. 42
, .
, .
:
nte Carlo Latin Hypercybe ,
.
42
89
1.
;
2.
NPV);
3.
;
4.
;
(IRR
5. ;
6. .
.
.
,
.
2.4.
.
.
,
. ,
(due diligence)
.
,
.
,
.
,
.
, ,
,
90
,
.
.
,
,
,
, .
2.4.1.
, ,
.
:
, ?
,
.
.
, , ,
.
.
.
. (future value, FV)
. ,
.
(present value, PV).
:
91
=
FV PV (1 + r )
(4)
Ovde r , a
.
:
PV =
FV
1+ r
(5)
, .
, e
:
=
FV PV (1 + r ) n
PV =
FV
(1 + r ) n
(6)
(7)
n . ,
, (1+r) .
.
.
,
.
.
.
.
: 150 000 $.
25 ,
6%.
().
PV
150 000
92
(1+r) 0,06/12
n
2512
FV
669 745
PMT 966,45
.
150 000 0,06 = 9 000 / 12 = 750
,
.
966,45 750 = 216,45
:
150 000 216,45 = 149 783,55.
.
.
.
2.5:
966.45
750.0000
216.4500
149783.6
966.45
748.9178
217.5323
149566.0
966.45
747.8301
218.6199
149347.4
...
...
...
...
...
966.45
10
740.0627
226.3873
147786.1
966.45
11
738.9307
227.5193
147558.6
966.45
12
737.7931
228.6569
147330
,
.
93
. ,
.
2.4.2.
(net present value, NPV)
.
, 0.
. (internal rate of
return, IRR)
.
, NPV
.
. 43
2.6: NPV 7% i 20%
CF
0
$167,100
1
$8,734
2
$10,284
3
$11,874
4
$13,504
5
$320,356
PV
NPV
PV 7%
$167,100
$8,163
$8,982
$9,693
$10,302
$228,409
$265,549
+$98,449
CF
0
$167,100
1
$8,734
2
$10,284
3
$11,874
4
$13,504
5
$320,356
PV
NPV
PV 20%
$167,100
$7,278
$7,142
$6,872
$6,512
$128,744
$156,578
$10,522
43
94
,
,
7% .
265,549. NPV
NPV 98,449.
.
.
,
7%.
,
7%. ,
, 20%.
, IRR NPV 0.
, + 98,449 -10,522. IRR
7% 20%. NPV
IRR 20%
7%. IRR
. 44
1. NPV
98,449 + 10,522 = 108,971
2. NPV
98,449 / 108,971 = 0,9034
3.
20% - 7% = 13%
4.
0,9034 13% = 11,74 %
44
5.
.
11,74 % + 7% = 18,45%.
IRR ,
NPV = 0.
18,45%. IRR , :
n PCF
=
t
t = 0 (1+ i )
(8)
(PCF)
. IRR
,
.
.
.
2.4.3.
.
.
.
: PGI (potencial
gross income), SGI (scheduled gross incom), EGI (fective gross
income), GI (gross income), NOI (net opereting income), NCF
(net cash flow).
PGI
.
,
. PGI
:
96
PGI = 12
(9)
, :
PGI = () 12 .
(10)
SGI
.
,
.
SGI :
12 +
12 = SGI
(11)
, SGI
. GI.
. ,
3%, 5% 7%,
5%,
SGI 5%.
GI.
SGI =
(12)
GI = SGI
(13)
, :
GI = SGI (SGI ).
(14)
PGI.
GI
, . PGI, SGI, GI.
, ,
.
, .
.
NOI .
.
97
, , , , .,
.
. , NOI :
GI = NOI
(15)
NCF
. :
NCF = NOI
(16)
(cash flw before taxes CFBT)
(cash flw fter taxes CFAT). CFBT
.
NOI.
NOI = CFBT
(17)
CFAT
.
:
CFBT = CFAT
(18)
.
.
GI = GI
= NOI
= CFBT = CFAT
(19)
(cash flow)
. ,
.
.
.
.
98
,
.
2.4.4.
. ,
, , .
.
,
. ,
.
:
.
.
.
,
.
.
,
.
.
.
, , , , ,
.
.
.
.
,
99
.
.
.
, ,
.
.
.
.
.
. ,
, .
. 10% - 20%
NOI.
2.4.5.
,
(gross rent multiplier - GRM). GRM
,
.
.
P/ GRM
.
, . GRM
.
.
GRM = /
100
(20)
, $400 000
$3 000 $36 000, GRM
:
400 000/ 36 000 = 11,11
$4 000,
$48,000, GRM
8,33. , .
.
GRM
13 22
.
,
,
.
,
.
3.7: ,
GRM
16 +
12 - 16
8 - 11
5-7
GRM, . GR
.
.
,
.
,
, .
,
, .
101
Cap = NOI /
(21)
. Cap
.
Cap .
3.8: , Cap
Cap
3-6
7-8
9 - 11
12 - 13
13 +
. ,
Cap .
Cap
,
,
.
GRM Cap
.
, .
,
.
102
2.5.
15 .
.
.
,
.
.
,
.
,
.
,
.
:
1. ;
2. Freehold ;
3. Leasehold .
.
.
. ,
.
2.5.1.
,
.
.
103
.
, :
O CF (after tax
cash flow) ;
O .
o
.
,
.
NPV .
, .
.
,
.
.
.
,
. ,
.
,
.
.
: ,
(estimated rental value, RV),
,
. :
RV, , ,
.
. :
104
, , ,
.
,
.
:
RV;
Cap ;
. 45
. ,
.
. ,
,
.
5 20
.
,
.
(RV)
(Cap) ,
:
RV / Cap
45O
(22)
.
, ,
.
:
1.
;
2.
;
3.
.
. ,
. ,
.
,
.
, :
10 ,
7%, 10 ,
,
10
, 20 .
.
, ,
.
,
.
,
.
106
, ,
.
. ,
,
.
,
,
.
:
1. ;
2. .
.
.
.
,
.
,
, , .
,
:
1. , ;
2.
;
3. ,
;
4. .
.
.
107
.
.
.
:
1.
( i );
2.
(rp);
3.
( t ).
( r ) :
(23)
( RFR )
(1+t)(1+i) 1,
:
(24)
.
.
. ,
.
,
, RFR
.
.
:
1. CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model);
2. WCC (Weighted-verage Cost f Capital);
3. .
108
.
.
,
.
.
,
.
WCC .
WCC-.
, .
. WCC
.
:
(25)
RP = LRRPp
(26)
RP , RPd
, RPp ,
LR .
.
WCC
. ,
?
. ,
.
.
.
. :
109
, CAPM
,
.
:
,
. ,
, ,
. ,
.
, :
.
.
.
.
,
.
,
,
.
110
.
, ,
.
.
, , ,
.
.
( )
.
, .
.
.
.
.
,
. :
1. ;
2. ;
3.
.
:
=
V
E (CF1 ) E (CF2 )
E (CFT 1 ) E (CFT )
+
+ +
+
2
1 + Er
(1 + Er )
(1 + Er )T 1 (1 + Er )T
(27)
: V , CF
111
, r ,
.
.
, 5 (
2011. 2015. ), 10 000
.
15 000 .
10 ,
150 000.
165 000.
.
,
:
3.9:
2011.
2012.
2013.
2014.
2015.
10 000
10 000
15 000
15 000
165 000
, ,
5% .
,
.
:
10000 10000 15000 15000
+
+
+
1, 05
1, 05 2 1, 05 3 1, 05 4
,
.
.
,
. ,
,
.
,
: ,
.
.
, ,
. ,
5 15 .
.
2.5.2. Freehold
freehold . ,
.
( ),
. ,
,
freehold .
freehold
.
113
.
.
, .
( 7) .
Freehold ,
.
.
.
:
1. ;
2.
;
3.
. 46
.
k,
.
,
,
(, , .).
. ,
.
(1/k).
YP (yrs purchas).
46:
,
.
:
I / k = I YP
(28)
I , k , YP
.
,
.
200 000 .
5%,
YP = 200 000 / 5%
YP = 20
YP,
.
YP
200 000
20
4 000 000
4 000 000 .
freehold
.
.
:
1. ;
2. M .
. ()
115
.
,
( 1% ).
,
.
RV (
) . .
3
100 000 ,
5%. 5 .
VR 125 000 ,
6%.
:
100 000
YP
20
2 000 000
RV
125 000
25 000
YP
16, 667
PV 2 .
0, 890
370 841
2 370 841
PV
, 6%.
.
. RV.
()
116
.
,
( 1%) ,
.
,
.
.
, :
100 000
RV 125 000
k - 5%
, 4%.
, ,
:
100 000
YP 2.
1,886
188 600
RV
125 000
YP
20
PV 2.
0,907
2 267 500
2 456 100
, YP2.
4%, PV2.
5%.
,
.
.
.
117
.
freehold
.
.
.
. ,
.
,
.
.
, ,
: 47
100 000
YP
18,182
1 818 200
RV
125 000
100 000
25 000
YP
18,182
PV 2 .
0,8985
408 413
2 226 613
.
47
.
. ,
.
.
.
,
.
,
.
2.5.3. Leasehold
leasehold
freehold . ,
.
Leasehold
.
.
.
,
.
,
,
.
leasehold
.
,
. ,
.
.
119
leasehold :
1. 25 ;
2. 25 .
. .
,
.
.
,
. ,
.
.
leasehold .
leasehold
:
1. ;
2. . 48
,
.
1% 2%
freehold
.
leasehold .
leasehold
YP,
k + 1% (2%),
. .
48:
.
1
n .
1 , :
(1 + i ) n 1
1 =
i
A 1
i
(29)
(30)
= 1 / 1
(31)
i
(1 + i ) n 1
(32)
i / ( -1)
(33)
.
1
1 .
,
YP .
freehold ,
YP.
leasehold ,
, YP .
:
-
.
n;
121
F i .
, YP :
YP =
1
SFi
i+
(1 + SFi ) n 1
(34)
.
10 2 000$ .
12 000$.
freehold 6%.
7%,
4%.
= 12 000 2 000 = 10 000
1
YP =
0, 07 +
0, 04
1, 04 10 1
2.10: 12%,
4%
300 000
312 000
324 480
337 459
350 958
225 000
225 000
225 000
225 000
225 000
75 000
87 000
99 480
112 459
125 958
PV 12%
0,8929
0,7972
0,7118
0,6355
0,5674
DCF
66 967
69 356
70 810
71 468
71 469
350 070
. ,
,
.
*
. ,
.
,
.
. ,
.
,
.
, ,
/, , ,
.
,
123
3.
90- 2007. .
.
. ,
. ,
:
,
. , ,
. Cap
,
.
.
. ,
.
,
124
. ,
.
.
,
.
.
, ,
,
,
. 49
. ,
.
,
.
,
. ,
,
.
11%
2009.
20%.
,
.
.
49Colliers
125
,
.
. ,
.
3.1.
2008. .
2007. , .
.
2008. . ,
,
, .
.
,
,
.
. ,
.
,
.
.
.
52%
2008. 2007. .
2009.
126
, 53%
2009. ,
2010. .
. , .
. ,
.
.
.
.
,
.
. ,
.
2009.
(, , , ,
) 32%
2008. . Bulwien Gesa AG,
2008. ,
1,3 % .
,
2009. .
127
3.1:
: www.hypoport.com
,
2009. . FNAIM,
2,97 % . ,
2004.
.
2001. 2006. .
,
, 2007. .
128
3.3:
: FNAIM, www.globalpropertyguide.com
,
.
2008. 2009. ,
2010. .
(he Bank f Spain) 2008.
1,5 %, 2009. 6,7 %.
2009.
1 892,
2008.
2 019.
Facilismo.com, 2010.
,
2009. .
, .
3.4:
2010.
: www.spanishpropertyinsight.com
129
12 (
2010.) 4,7 %.
6,1 %.
2006. .
2000. 2007. .
90- 2007. ,
2001. 2008. .
.
,
,
.
.
1996. 2009. 200%.
2000. ,
2008.
. , 2009.
2010.
2010.
5,2 %.
3.5: 1995. 2010. .
: www.landreg.gov.uk
130
5,12
3,85
3,81
3,48
4,40
5,04
4,11
4,42
3,63
: www.globalpropertyguide.com
5%
.
( .)
.
, 2008. 2007.
.
.
, 2007-
. IPD , 2009.
. ,
, .
,
2009.
.
.
131
.
. ,
,
.
3.2:
IPD
%
2009.
2008.
2007.
2009.
2008.
2007.
2009.
2008.
2007.
2,5
3,54
4,5
5,2
5,0
4,7
-2,6
-1,4
-0,2
-1,4
-0,9
17,8
6,1
5,4
5,4
-7,1
-6,0
11,8
- 9,4
-9,38
4,6
4,63
-13,4
-13,4
3,5
-22,1
-3,4
7,4
5,58
4,63
-3,6
-26,3
-7,7
0,8
1,96
9,23
5,7
5,39
5,3
- 4,6
-3,27
3,77
: www.ipd.com
, 2009.
.
- 0,4% 2009. ,
, S&P/Case-Shiller
Composide 10 .
,
15,8 % . FHFA House Price Index
2007.
, 3,28 %.
2008. , 11,12 %.
2009. (
0,42 %),
. ,
.
132
: www.standardandpoors.com
. IPD
,
2007. .
3.7: %
: www.ipd.com
,
,
2009. .
( 12,34 %),
2009. ,
. ,
133
. ,
,
,
22,19 %. ,
.
3.3: 2009.
.
2009.
(%)
2009.
(%)
5 (%)
3,12
22,19
58,30
5,69
-1,25
20,93
3,79
1,78
: www.globalpropertyguide.com
45,61
2009..
, . 2009.
0,7 %,
4,1 %.
. 12,3 % ,
,
, 5,9 %
2009. .
,
90- 2000- .
1995. 2004. , 148%,
100% .
2002. 2002 2003
, 2004.
.
,
.
,
.
134
3.8:
IPD ,
2009. .
,
.
.
3.9: %
: www.ipd.com
.
.
,
.
, :
135
,
;
,
, .
3.2.
.
.
.
,
. ,
.
,
.
.
136
. ,
. ,
.
,
. ,
1980. , 75%
, 93%
. 50
.
.
,
.
, , .
90- ,
, .
, .
, 90- 30 50%
1980. (
).
.
,
: ,
, , ,
,
, ,
.
50Palacin,
,
. ,
.
.
.
. ,
,
, .
, ,
.
. ,
. (9,91%)
(8,11%)
, 2009. ,
(5,12%)
(3,85 %).
3.4: 2009. .
(%)
4,16
5,22
8,11
9,91
5,50
4,93
: www.globalpropetyguid.com
,
. 2009.
138
.
.
, 2009.
.
-,
.
, .
.
.
.
, 2007.
,
.
,
.
. 2009. ,
.
2009. 37
, ,
000. 51
2007. .
2009.
,
.
.
.
,
, .
,
,
. ,
,
51
.
,
.
.
. ,
.
,
12 20 ,
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(40).
3.5: 2009.
( *)
17
17
16
13
19
* /CBD
: Office Rents 2009. mid-year, www.colliers.com
. ,
. , ,
.
,
2010. ,
.
, .
140
,
2010. 2011. . 52
3.6:
2009.
.
2009.
2009.
(%)
(%)
8,98
- 2,19
12,34
0,28
3,55
7,26
8,76
0,40
7,99
-3,97
: www.globalpropertyguide.com
. 5
. (%)
51,25
71,69
14,14
5,52
,
. 2009.
.
,
.
, ,
.
.
. , ,
, .
3.3.
,
.
2000. .
.
52Colliers
2009.
90- , 95%
. 1992.
( 40
).
.
.
.
.
,
90- .
, .
.
.
,
, ,
(" ", 55/04 ).
, .
2003. 2008.
2008. .
2000. 2001. ,
.
, 2003. ,
,
.
142
3.7:
2003.
2004.
2005.
2006.
2007.
2008.
1287
2206
1919
1382
60794 70135 82273 86345 89634 113821
2004. .
.
.
,
.
.
.
3.10 : ,
: ,
www.globalpropertyguide.com
2009. ,
, , , , .
,
.
,
143
.
: (), (),
(), () ().
:
, , ,
, big box .
2002. ,
. , 2007. ,
: Delta City Zira.
2009. ,
2010. .
2010.
.
15%-30%.
3.8 : 2005 - 2010. .
2005
52 400
2006
76 900
2007
223 400
2008
223 400
2009
268 400
2010
268 400
: Danos, Serbian Real Estate Market Report H1 2010., www.danos.rs
2009.
5%
.
15%-20%.
5 10
. ,
.
,
60-90 .
144
10%-15%
2009. , ,
.
3.9:
2009.
100- 140
30-90
25-60
40-60
10-20
10-30
2000. ,
.
.
.
2004. 2005. ,
. 2010.
770 000
, 11% .
2010. 2011.
.
, ,
,
,
.
2007.
.
12%
2008. , 2009. 15%. 53
53
3.10:
2010. .
14-15
10-12
6-12
5-8
2010.
. ( 50%)
300.
,
, .
, ,
.
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.
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.
,
.
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.
:
,
;
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.
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.
.
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,
.
,
.
2000. ,
.
.
2008. , ,
74.662 ,
47.058 .
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.
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