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, 2011.

DATA STATUS,
2011

DATA STATUS
. 1/45, 11070
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150 (CD )
ISBN
978-86-7478-242-2

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(a 179015),
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............................................................................................. 7
ABSTRACT ......................................................................................... 8
..................................................................... 9
1. ...... 13
1.1. ............ 14
1.2. .............................. 22
1.3. .................................................. 27
1.4. ......................................................... 31
1.5. .......................................... 35
1.6. ................................................................... 41
1.7. ................................. 49
2.
, , ........................................... 57
2.1. ................................ 58
2.2. .................................... 66
2.2.1. ......................... 68
2.2.2. ................. 71
2.3. ....... 81
2.3.1. .............................................. 82
2.3.2. ................................. 85
2.3.3. ............................... 87
2.4. ............................................... 90
2.4.1. ........................................ 91
2.4.2. . 94
2.4.3. ........................................................ 96

2.4.4. ............................................... 99
2.4.5. .... 100
2.5. ........ 103
2.5.1. .................. 103
2.5.2. Freehold ......................................... 113
2.5.3. Leasehold ....................................... 119
3. .......................... 124
3.1. .......................................... 126
3.2. ....................................................... 136
3.3. ............................................................. 141
....................................................... 152
............................................................................... 158
.................................................................................. 162



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ABSTRACT
Real estate market is one of the main sources of welfare of the
national economy, as well as an indicator of economic and social
strength and financial stability. Changes in supply and demand
in the real estate market and the price developments have
implications for the broader economy. The aim of the
monograph is to provide the basic knowledge required for
investing in real estate through a qualitative and quantitative
analysis and highlight the attractiveness of investment in real
estate. The importance of investment in real estate can be seen
through the possibility of real estate to generate future cash
flows, similar financial instruments traded on financial
markets. However, the nature of supply and demand in the real
estate market, the yield that they create, cash flow, timing, risk
and other important determinants differ significantly from
those in the financial markets. The monograph points to the
economic aspects of the real estate market, viewing them as an
investment in their ability to generate profits. The monograph
is an analysis of the real estate market with the consideration
of economic, legal and institutional aspects, explained in
quantitative methods and techniques used in the analysis of
investments in real estate as well as analysis of trends in
markets, both developed countries and in countries with
emerging markets including Serbia.

Key words:
real estate

supply and demand


indicators

residential real estate

rents

commercial real estate

real estate valuation

real estate market



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Zhu, H. (2003), The importance of property markets for monetary policy


and financial stability, BIS Papers No 21, Research and Policy Analysis,
Bank for International Settlements, 4002 Basel, Switzerland, . 13
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Economics of Commercial Property Markets, Routledge, New York. p. 20
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M. J., Moskowitz, T. J. (1999), Confronting Information


Asymmetries: Evidence from Real Estate Markets, Working Paper No.
507, Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP).
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Decisions, fifth edition, Dearborn Financial Publishing, p. 25 27

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D. L., J. D, Evans, O. W., JD (2007), The Complete Real Estate


Encyclopedia: From AAA Tanant to Zoning Variance and Everything in
Between, McGraw-Hill, p. 180
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21Fisher,

J. D., US commercial real estate indices: the NCREIF property


index ,BIS Papers No 21, . 359
22 :
Wood, R., A comparison of UK residential house price indices, BIS Papers
No 21, Structural Economic Analysis Division, Monetary Analysis, Bank of
England, Threadneedle Street, London.
23 : Henning, A., Page, A. Euro Area
Residential Property Prices: The Aggregation of Non-Harmonised National
Data, BIS Papers No 21 Eiglsperger, M. (November 2006), Residental
Property Price Statistics for the Euro Area and Selected EU Countries,
paper 4, European Central Bank.
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Malaysia, . 1

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: Berges, S. (2004), The Comlete Guide to Real Estate

Finance for Investment Properties: How to Analyze Any Single-Family,


Multifamily or Commercial Property, Johan Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken,

New Jersey, p. 13 25

72


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(median housing price) ;
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W., Esq., Licata, G. R. (2007), Defensive Real Estate Investing:
10 Principles for Succeeding Whether Your Market is Up or Down, Kaplan

32Bronchick,

Publishing, New York, p. 13


Loftis, L. B. (2007), Successful Real Estate Investing in a Boom or

33:

Bust Market: Understand the Economics of Real Estate, Identify Which


Market You're in, Foolproof Your Profits and Minimize Your Risk, Kaplan
Publishing, New York, p. 45 58

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Fortune, Schumacher Enterprises, p. 46 - 60

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Craig (2004), Thiming the Real Estate Market, McGraw-Hill, USA, p.


165 166

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36Hall,

C. (2004), p. 247
76


.

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.

.

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Loftis, L. B. (2007), p. 59 68
77

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.

.

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, .


, . ,
,

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. 38
600 000$.

500$
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, 250$
8%.
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:

38

: Loftis, L. B. (2007), p. 66 68
78

12 000$

168 000$

156 000$

6 000$
96 000$

102 000$


.
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time the market, .
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,
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.
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. 40


.

.
,
.

Sayce, S. et al. (2006), p. 156


: Baum, A., Crosby, N. (2008), Property
Investment Appraisal, third edition, Blackwell Publishing, Oxford, p. 37
47

39

40

82


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2.4:


.
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.
2.3.3.

.
, ,
3S. 41
:
1. (sensitivity analysis);
2. (scenario analysis);
3. (simulation).

. IRR NPV
:

IRR NPV

.
:

41O

a : S. Sayce, J. Smith,
R. Cooper, Venmore- Rowland, P. (2006), p. 159 166
87


. :

/
( 10%)
.
;



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.
, :

( );
88


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, .
.
.
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.

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,
IRR NPV,
.

.

, (IRR NPV)
.
.

. :
1. nte Carlo;
2. Latin Hypercybe. 42

, .


, .
:
nte Carlo Latin Hypercybe ,
.

42

89

1.
;
2.
NPV);
3.
;

4.
;

(IRR

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.
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2.4.

.

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(due diligence)
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.

. (future value, FV)

. ,
.

(present value, PV).
:
91

=
FV PV (1 + r )

(4)

Ovde r , a
.
:

PV =

FV
1+ r

(5)

, .
, e
:
=
FV PV (1 + r ) n
PV =

FV
(1 + r ) n

(6)
(7)

n . ,
, (1+r) .

.


.
,

.


.
.

.
: 150 000 $.
25 ,
6%.
().
PV

150 000
92

(1+r) 0,06/12
n

2512

FV

669 745

PMT 966,45
.
150 000 0,06 = 9 000 / 12 = 750
,
.
966,45 750 = 216,45
:
150 000 216,45 = 149 783,55.


.
.
.
2.5:

966.45

750.0000

216.4500

149783.6

966.45

748.9178

217.5323

149566.0

966.45

747.8301

218.6199

149347.4

...

...

...

...

...

966.45

10

740.0627

226.3873

147786.1

966.45

11

738.9307

227.5193

147558.6

966.45

12

737.7931

228.6569

147330


,

.
93


. ,


.
2.4.2.
(net present value, NPV)

.
, 0.

. (internal rate of
return, IRR)
.
, NPV
.

. 43
2.6: NPV 7% i 20%

CF
0
$167,100
1
$8,734
2
$10,284
3
$11,874
4
$13,504
5
$320,356
PV
NPV

PV 7%
$167,100
$8,163
$8,982
$9,693
$10,302
$228,409
$265,549
+$98,449

CF
0
$167,100
1
$8,734
2
$10,284
3
$11,874
4
$13,504
5
$320,356
PV
NPV

PV 20%
$167,100
$7,278
$7,142
$6,872
$6,512
$128,744
$156,578
$10,522

: Mooney, S. P. (2007), Real Estate Math Demistified,


McGraw-Hill, New York, p.190 194

43

94

,
,
7% .
265,549. NPV
NPV 98,449.

.
.
,
7%.
,
7%. ,
, 20%.
, IRR NPV 0.

, + 98,449 -10,522. IRR
7% 20%. NPV
IRR 20%
7%. IRR
. 44
1. NPV
98,449 + 10,522 = 108,971
2. NPV

98,449 / 108,971 = 0,9034
3.
20% - 7% = 13%
4.
0,9034 13% = 11,74 %

44

IRR , : ney, Steven P. (2007), p. 193


95

5.
.
11,74 % + 7% = 18,45%.
IRR ,
NPV = 0.
18,45%. IRR , :

n PCF
=
t
t = 0 (1+ i )

(8)

(PCF)
. IRR
,
.


.


.
2.4.3.
.

.

.
: PGI (potencial
gross income), SGI (scheduled gross incom), EGI (fective gross
income), GI (gross income), NOI (net opereting income), NCF
(net cash flow).

PGI

.
,


. PGI
:
96

PGI = 12

(9)

, :

PGI = () 12 .

(10)

SGI

.
,
.
SGI :

12 +

12 = SGI

(11)

, SGI
. GI.

. ,
3%, 5% 7%,
5%,
SGI 5%.
GI.

SGI =

(12)

GI = SGI

(13)

, :

GI = SGI (SGI ).

(14)

PGI.
GI
, . PGI, SGI, GI.
, ,
.
, .
.
NOI .
.
97

, , , , .,
.

. , NOI :

GI = NOI

(15)

NCF


. :

NCF = NOI

(16)


(cash flw before taxes CFBT)
(cash flw fter taxes CFAT). CFBT

.
NOI.

NOI = CFBT

(17)

CFAT

.
:

CFBT = CFAT

(18)

.

.

GI = GI
= NOI
= CFBT = CFAT

(19)

(cash flow)
. ,
.
.

.

.
98

,
.
2.4.4.


. ,
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NOI.
2.4.5.


,
(gross rent multiplier - GRM). GRM
,
.
.
P/ GRM
.
, . GRM

.
.

GRM = /
100

(20)

, $400 000
$3 000 $36 000, GRM
:
400 000/ 36 000 = 11,11
$4 000,
$48,000, GRM
8,33. , .
.
GRM
13 22
.
,
,
.
,
.
3.7: ,

GRM

16 +

12 - 16

8 - 11

5-7

: Loftis, Larry B. (2007), p. 14


GRM, . GR
.
.

,
.
,
, .

,
, .
101

(capitalization rate, Cap rate)


(NOI)
. :

Cap = NOI /

(21)


. Cap
.
Cap .
3.8: , Cap

Cap

3-6

7-8

9 - 11

12 - 13

13 +

: Loftis, Larry B. (2007), p. 14


. ,
Cap .
Cap
,
,
.

GRM Cap

.

, .

,

.

102

2.5.

15 .

.

.
,
.
.
,

.
,
.
,
.
:
1. ;
2. Freehold ;
3. Leasehold .

.
.

. ,
.
2.5.1.
,

.
.

103


.
, :

O CF (after tax
cash flow) ;

O .


o
.
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NPV .
, .
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,
.

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.
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(estimated rental value, RV),
,
. :
RV, , ,
.

. :
104

, , ,
.
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.

:

RV;

Cap ;

. 45



. ,

.
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,

.
5 20
.


,
.
(RV)
(Cap) ,
:

RV / Cap

45O

: Baum, A., Crosby, N. (2008), p. 63 88


105

(22)


.
, ,
.
:
1.


;
2.

;
3.
.

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.
,
.
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7%, 10 ,
,

10

, 20 .

.

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.
,

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,
.
106

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.
,
,
.
:
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2. .


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.
,
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,

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2.
;

3. ,
;
4. .
.

.
107

.
.
.

:
1.

( i );

2.

(rp);

3.

( t ).

( r ) :

r = ( 1+t ) ( 1+i ) ( 1+rp )

(23)

( RFR )
(1+t)(1+i) 1,
:

r = (1+ RFR ) ( 1+rp) 1

(24)


.
.

. ,
.
,
, RFR
.
.
:
1. CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model);
2. WCC (Weighted-verage Cost f Capital);
3. .

CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) 60-


(odern Portfolio heoryPT).
. CAPM

108

.
.
,
.
.

,
.

WCC .
WCC-.

, .

. WCC
.
:

RP = RPd + LR(RPp RPd)

(25)

RP = LRRPp

(26)

RP , RPd
, RPp ,
LR .
.
WCC

. ,

?
. ,
.
.


.
. :

109

, CAPM
,
.
:

,
. ,
, ,
. ,

.

, :
.

.

.
.
,

.
,
,
.


110


.
, ,
.
.

, , ,
.

.
( )
.


, .

.
.
.
.
,

. :
1. ;
2. ;
3.
.


:
=
V

E (CF1 ) E (CF2 )
E (CFT 1 ) E (CFT )
+
+ +
+
2
1 + Er
(1 + Er )
(1 + Er )T 1 (1 + Er )T

(27)

: V , CF

111

, r ,
.

.

, 5 (
2011. 2015. ), 10 000
.
15 000 .

10 ,
150 000.
165 000.
.
,
:
3.9:

2011.

2012.

2013.

2014.

2015.

10 000

10 000

15 000

15 000

165 000



, ,
5% .
,
.

:
10000 10000 15000 15000
+
+
+
1, 05
1, 05 2 1, 05 3 1, 05 4

= 173 174, 0226 173 200


173 200
.
0,5 %.
,
.
.
112


,
.


.
,
. ,
,
.
,

: ,
.
.

, ,
. ,
5 15 .

.
2.5.2. Freehold

freehold . ,

.
( ),

. ,
,
freehold .

freehold


.
113

.
.

, .

( 7) .

Freehold ,

.

.
.
:
1. ;
2.
;
3.
. 46

.

k,


.
,

,
(, , .).

. ,
.
(1/k).
YP (yrs purchas).
46:

Sayce, S. et al. (2006), p. 106 111


114

,
.

:

I / k = I YP

(28)

I , k , YP
.
,
.

200 000 .

5%,

YP = 200 000 / 5%
YP = 20
YP,
.

YP

200 000
20
4 000 000

4 000 000 .
freehold
.


.
:
1. ;
2. M .

. ()

115

.
,

( 1% ).

,

.
RV (
) . .
3
100 000 ,
5%. 5 .
VR 125 000 ,
6%.
:

100 000

YP

20
2 000 000

RV

125 000

25 000

YP

16, 667

PV 2 .

0, 890

370 841

2 370 841

PV
, 6%.

.

. RV.
()
116


.
,
( 1%) ,
.
,
.
.
, :
100 000

RV 125 000
k - 5%

, 4%.
, ,
:

100 000

YP 2.

1,886

188 600

RV

125 000

YP

20

PV 2.

0,907

2 267 500

2 456 100

, YP2.
4%, PV2.
5%.
,
.

.
.
117


.
freehold

.
.
.

. ,

.
,


.
.
, ,
: 47

100 000

YP

18,182
1 818 200

RV

125 000

100 000

25 000

YP

18,182

PV 2 .

0,8985
408 413
2 226 613

.
47

Baum, A., Crosby, N. (2008), p. 160


118

.

. ,
.

.


.
,
.
,
.
2.5.3. Leasehold
leasehold

freehold . ,
.
Leasehold
.
.

.
,
.
,
,
.
leasehold
.
,
. ,

.
.
119

leasehold :
1. 25 ;
2. 25 .


. .
,
.

.


,
. ,
.
.
leasehold .
leasehold
:
1. ;
2. . 48

,
.

1% 2%
freehold
.

leasehold .
leasehold
YP,
k + 1% (2%),
. .
48:

Sayce, S. et al. (2006), p. 118 128


120


.

1
n .

1 , :
(1 + i ) n 1
1 =
i

A 1
i

(29)
(30)

= 1 / 1

(31)

i
(1 + i ) n 1

(32)

i / ( -1)

(33)



.
1

1 .
,
YP .
freehold ,
YP.
leasehold ,
, YP .
:

-
.
n;
121

F i .

, YP :
YP =

1
SFi
i+
(1 + SFi ) n 1

(34)


.
10 2 000$ .
12 000$.
freehold 6%.
7%,
4%.
= 12 000 2 000 = 10 000
1

YP =
0, 07 +

0, 04
1, 04 10 1

V = 6,5235 10 000 = 65 235$


65 235$.
,

.
,
leasehold . ,

. .
$300 000 .
$225 000 5 .
4%, 12%,
:
122

2.10: 12%,
4%

300 000
312 000
324 480
337 459
350 958


225 000
225 000
225 000
225 000
225 000


75 000
87 000
99 480
112 459
125 958

PV 12%
0,8929
0,7972
0,7118
0,6355
0,5674

DCF
66 967
69 356
70 810
71 468
71 469
350 070


. ,
,
.
*


. ,
.
,
.

. ,

.
,

.
, ,
/, , ,
.
,

123

3.

90- 2007. .

.

. ,

. ,
:

,


. , ,
. Cap
,
.

.

. ,



.
,
124


. ,

.

.
,

.

.
, ,
,
,
. 49

. ,

.
,

.

,
. ,
,
.
11%
2009.
20%.

,
.
.

International, Global Investor Sentiment Survey, Quarter 1 2010,


www.colliers.com

49Colliers

125


,
.


. ,

.

3.1.

2008. .
2007. , .

.

2008. . ,

,
, .

.
,
,
.
. ,

.
,
.
.

.

52%
2008. 2007. .
2009.
126


, 53%
2009. ,
2010. .

. , .

. ,
.
.
.

.
,

.

. ,
.
2009.

(, , , ,
) 32%
2008. . Bulwien Gesa AG,
2008. ,
1,3 % .
,
2009. .

127

3.1:

: Bulwien Gesa AG, www.globalpropertyguid.com

Hypoport German House Price Index (HPX), 2010.


.
3.2: Hypoport German House Price Index ( HPX )

: www.hypoport.com

,
2009. . FNAIM,
2,97 % . ,
2004.
.
2001. 2006. .
,
, 2007. .

128

3.3:

: FNAIM, www.globalpropertyguide.com

,
.
2008. 2009. ,
2010. .
(he Bank f Spain) 2008.
1,5 %, 2009. 6,7 %.
2009.
1 892,
2008.
2 019.
Facilismo.com, 2010.
,
2009. .
, .
3.4:
2010.

: www.spanishpropertyinsight.com

129

12 (
2010.) 4,7 %.
6,1 %.
2006. .


2000. 2007. .
90- 2007. ,
2001. 2008. .

.
,
,
.

.
1996. 2009. 200%.

2000. ,
2008.
. , 2009.
2010.
2010.
5,2 %.
3.5: 1995. 2010. .

: www.landreg.gov.uk
130

Global Property Guide,


( ) e
. 2009. .



.
.
3.1:
2009.

5,12

3,85

3,81

3,48

4,40

5,04

4,11

4,42

3,63
: www.globalpropertyguide.com

5%
.
( .)
.

, 2008. 2007.
.
.
, 2007-

. IPD , 2009.
. ,
, .
,
2009.
.
.
131


.

. ,
,
.
3.2:
IPD
%

2009.

2008.

2007.

2009.

2008.

2007.

2009.

2008.

2007.

2,5

3,54

4,5

5,2

5,0

4,7

-2,6

-1,4

-0,2

-1,4

-0,9

17,8

6,1

5,4

5,4

-7,1

-6,0

11,8

- 9,4

-9,38

4,6

4,63

-13,4

-13,4

3,5

-22,1

-3,4

7,4

5,58

4,63

-3,6

-26,3

-7,7

0,8

1,96

9,23

5,7

5,39

5,3

- 4,6

-3,27

3,77

: www.ipd.com


, 2009.
.
- 0,4% 2009. ,
, S&P/Case-Shiller
Composide 10 .
,
15,8 % . FHFA House Price Index
2007.
, 3,28 %.

2008. , 11,12 %.
2009. (
0,42 %),
. ,

.

132

3.6: S&P/ Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

: www.standardandpoors.com


. IPD
,
2007. .
3.7: %

: www.ipd.com

,
,
2009. .
( 12,34 %),
2009. ,
. ,
133


. ,
,
,
22,19 %. ,

.
3.3: 2009.

.
2009.
(%)


2009.
(%)



5 (%)

3,12

22,19

58,30

5,69

-1,25

20,93

3,79
1,78
: www.globalpropertyguide.com

45,61


2009..
, . 2009.
0,7 %,
4,1 %.
. 12,3 % ,
,
, 5,9 %
2009. .
,
90- 2000- .
1995. 2004. , 148%,
100% .
2002. 2002 2003
, 2004.
.
,
.

,
.
134

3.8:

: ustralian Bureu f Statistics, www.globalpropertyguid.com

IPD ,
2009. .
,
.

.
3.9: %

: www.ipd.com


.
.
,


.
, :
135

,
;

,


, .

3.2.

.

.


.


,
. ,
.
,

.

.

136


. ,
. ,
.
,
. ,
1980. , 75%
, 93%
. 50
.

.
,
.


, , .
90- ,

, .

, .

, 90- 30 50%
1980. (
).

.
,
: ,

, , ,
,
, ,
.
50Palacin,

J.,Shelburne, R. C. (2005) The Private Housing Market in


Eastern Europe and the CIS,p. 2
137


,

. ,
.

.

.
. ,

,

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