I NTEGRATED TRAFFI C MANAGEMENT, DEALI NG WI TH THE

DYNAMICS OF LARGE COMPLEX SYSTEMS

Danko A. Roozemond
Reruco D. Iohanns
Department of Civil Engineering, Delft University of Technology
The Netherlands
1. I NTRODUC~ON
Current estimates are that 65 percent of peak-hour travel on highways and urban roads
and 10 percent of all daily urban travel is conducted under congested conditions. The
inability of the existing road network to cope with increased demand has been
identified as one of the most pressing infrastructure issues of the decade. Past custom
to counter increased congestion with more and wider roads, is currently giving way to
more complex management and control systems and road pricing policies.
Under pressure from still increasing traffic related problems, modem traffic
management professionals and policy makers turn to new, better traffic management
systems. Most of these systems are designed and build to solve a specific problem
particularly well. This research project, which is part of the research program IDEE
(Integrated Disciplines Engineering Environment), deals with the pre-requisites of
integrated and dynamic traffic management systems. In recent decades traffic
problems have become both a social and economical embarrassment: congestion,
deteriorating road safety, regression of mobility and environmental effects of traffic
are widely considered important issues. A probable cure is to build more and safer
infrastructure, but this is considered unacceptable as a long term solution due to limits
of available space, limited resources and limits to further environmental strain such as
air and noise pollution. Alternatively reduction of traffic or inhibitive costing
measures could be considered. As transportation is singularly vital to the survival of
cities, and widely accepted as a crucial economic factor, a system of improvements to
traffic management arises as the only acceptable form to resolve the social and
economic dependencies on transportation in our part of the world. A more efficient
use of existing infrastructure may gain time in which to develop alternate modes of
transport and/or infrastructure. As with all demand-supply problems, solutions made
through traffic management can be viewed as either increasing capacity to meet
demand or modifying demand to levels deliverable under certain conditions. Both
views rely as much on the actual transport conditions as on the perception of those
conditions by the road user. A definite advantage can be gained by making the right
kind of information available to the right kind of users. This requires the exchange of
information between the road system managers and groups and individuals of the
public.
The function of traffic management systems is to efficiently manage existing
transportation resources. The goals of traffic management systems are to maximise
safety and transport productivity; minimise congestion and damage through incidents;
distribute information on traffic-conditions, road-conditions, weather, etc. A TMS
should invoke appropriate intervening action when undesirable situations arise.
Some constraints apply to the development and invocation of new traffic management
systems. The most important one is sustainability. The applicability of traffic
management and traffic control systems greatly depends on their capability to react on
traffic patterns and mutations. Therefore flexibility and adjustability are important
aspects. Economic viability of the system or systems is greatly increased with reuse of
existing installations and infrastructure. This partly depends on the use of current
technologies and technology independence of design features of the systems. Existing
investment can be protected by regarding the current infrastructure as a skeleton
system in need of an upgrade. Social acceptability of investments is influenced by
funding, largely public, and privacy issues. There should be adequate measures against
misuse and the privacy of traffic participants should be protected.
Ai m of this project is to develop insights into the applicability of autonomous and
distributed artificial intelligence systems in the domain of traffic engineering. In this
project the integration of traffic management systems is proposed. Integrating not only
the traffic management and control systems, but including active participation of
policy makers and traffic participants. This goes beyond the scale planned for the
implementations of dynamic traffic management and control systems as IVSI-I and
ATT/Drive. To handle the dynamics of the large and complex system several specific
subjects will be researched in depth. In this paper we investigate the possibility of
using autonomous intelligent management systems to cope with the workloads of
traffic managers and control operators, while maintaining high levels of usability. We
demonstrate that an integrated dynamic traffic management and control system can
adapt and respond to traffic conditions in real-time and maintain its integrity and
stability within the total system. Current traffic models do not sufficiently account for
the specific problems in urban traffic following from small scale interactions. An
example of Urban Traffic Control is included to illustrate the possibilities presented
by integrated dynamic traffic management systems.
2. TYPOLOGY OF A DTMS
Traffic management can be divided into three different levels of decision making each
with its own data demands (Romph, 1994). Firstly, there are decisions to be made
concerning short term traffic control. Traffic management with a time-frame of a few
minutes, implemented in traffic control systems; in most cases no human action is
required. Secondly there is medium term traffic management on a few hours time-
frame, implemented in traffic management systems. The third level concerns with
long term planning on the days to years scale, called traffic planning systems used in a
highly interactive environment as a tool to human design and planning efforts. The
different levels of decision making have some consequences for the required data.
Long term planning can be done with aggregated, semi-dynamic data and is not used
by travellers, but rather by policy makers and planners. Much more detailed data,
more accuracy, reliability and actuality, are required for medium term planning.
Highly accurate, up-to-date data is necessary for short term decisions in traffic control.
To get the required data, on-line monitoring of traffic conditions is crucial for traffic
control, but also very valuable for traffic management applications.
Among the core features of multi-modal traffic management systems are the
following:
traffic signal control systems;
motorway management systems;
incident management systems;
toll collection systems;
route guidance systems;
road monitoring and data gathering systems.
Traffic management systems may be designed for local, i.e. small scale, or regional
and national, i.e. large scale uses. An intermediate approach is developed in the so
called sealeable systems. There is a choice of centralised and distributed approaches.
There are several advantages to each approach under given circumstances. For
management systems supposed to cover a very wide area, as in regional and national
systems, a centralised approach becomes too involved. The decentralised, distributed
approaches remain as reasonable options, possibly with local concentrators, e.g.
Traffic Management Centres (TMC). Possible designs include mono-functinnal
systems, where one function is dealt with by the system, and multi-functional systems,
where several functions are performed within one single system. From these, the
multi-functional systems can be far more practical, especially when combining
functions such as route guidance, messaging, monitoring and signalling, which are
inter-dependent through the information they require and generate. Where a static
design may be acceptable for small scale systems, the feasibility requirements of large
scale systems will usually demand an evolutionary design. Depending on the scale and
state of the system, use of propriety designs for subsystems may be acceptable or not.
In large scale, evolutionary systems an open systems approach is preferable. The
individual components within the system work closely together, based on the co-
ordination rules implemented in the system. There is communication between
distributed sub-systems regarding information gathered by the components. These can
be implemented as point-to-point or broadcast communications, with on-demand, on-
availability or mixed-mode triggers. Actual decisions taken can be arrived at through
rule based or model based decision logic implemented in the components. The
decision logic may be local or remote and may have influence on different
management levels. This may be explicitly designed into master-slave, agent-
controller or voting arrangements between the sub-systems.
Based on analysis of the unique needs of certain areas, a combination of features will
be implemented. These parallel implementation of physical components
(soft/hardware) and institutional relationships will require some integration. Co-
ordination among jurisdictions and agencies will be part of the management system.
Where such interactions occur, enhanced co-ordination and communication of
concepts, architectures, interface standards and operations/maintenance
responsibilities and resources is crucial.
Development of the system by an evolutionary design, maximising the reuse of
existing infrastructure, will enable the effectuation of the different components of the
system as soon as they become available. This requires that all components use the
same basic infrastructure standards, which is a property of open systems. In this
scheme each feature can be developed independently of the others, but concurrent
implementations should increase overall benefits or decrease overall costs. The need
to shift from the current technology to new, more efficient and effective technology
may arise, even though functionally comparable systems are already in place. As more
features are implemented several features will be able to use each others data and
infrastructure. Fully developed, such systems will display a plug and play property,
which guarantees long term flexibility.
3. ARCHI TECTURE OF AN I NTEGRATED DTMS
3.1 Architectural Considerations
One of the main objectives of this project is to develop a framework integrating traffic
and infrastructure planning, traffic management, traffic control, information and
simulation systems into one multi-user, multi-discipline Integrated Dynamic Traffic
Management System (IDTMS). The economical, environmental and social impacts of
an integrated and dynamic traffic management system can be significant.
Incorporating all systems related to traffic into one single entity to give among other:
more traffic control possibilities; more co-ordination between users; less unexpected
traffic jams; better forecasting; improved road safety; improved co-ordination of
transport modes.
To satisfy that objective, a dynamic traffic management system should be based on
modular and distributed components that can operate within an open, evolutionary,
distributed and scaleable architecturaI framework serving the needs of several
management layers (Roozemond, 1995). Standardisation is a requirement for
components within the system to facilitate access to and manipulation of the
information and models present in the system. Sub-systems are designed to perform
autonomously, co-ordinating their own actions, interacting with other sub-systems
trough standardised interfaces when necessary. This increases overall robustness of
the system. Messages passed between sub-systems should be non-trivial but still most
sub-systems should be able to function independently. In order to be effective, such
systems need to collect data for immediate use, and aggregate data before it is
broadcasted to other components through the system, while maintaining accurate data
locally. In this way, creating an appropriate environment for information and traffic
management systems that can address several goals and even can handle different and
opposite goals. By co-ordinating, (re)directing and managing of traffic processes, a
substantially higher level of quality and effectiveness of the infrastructure could be
achieved. To be socially acceptable an intelligent transport and traffic management
system must recognise and respect the privacy of individuals with which it deals.
The different levels of decision making, strategic, tactical and operational levels, need
to be integrated in the system. For policy makers and planners there is the possibility
for data exchange, model exchange and communication. The policies to be considered
are concerning politics and social acceptance (strategic), traffic policies (tactical),
traffic laws (operational, legal) and traffic control (operational, flow). An user-centric
design is essential to ensure co-operation of the users. A large number of organisations
have to be taken into account in the design process. A response group consisting of
vehicle manufacturers, electronics and components industry, telecom providers, public
interest groups, several different governmental layers, road and traffic authorities, the
police, etc. should be consulted during the design phases of the system.
To function as a management and design supporting tool an 1DTMS must address the
specific needs of user groups such as traffic engineers, planners, politicians and
environmental interest groups. These may need cross-access to each others models
and data. We consider it advantageous to accommodate testing of new models or
components within the system prior to deployment, providing a testbed and taking
care of data collection and aggregation as realistically as possible. When focusing on
integrated network control, forecasting, incident detection and re-routing systems,
there is a need for dependable data collection. Presentation of information can take
different forms, but is most effective at the appropriate times prior to or during the
journey, where providing the information can is likely to improve travel conditions.
A short summary of the design and motivation of an overall traffic management
strategy based on an object-based control model is given in Johanns & Roozemond
(1993). There we propose a traffic control system for inter- and inner-urban traffic,
where most of the decision and control logic is placed with intelligent control at
intersection level. The individual modules are designed to keep information local and
to cope with occurring chaotic behaviour or instabilities, incorrectness or errors of the
system. Small, self adjusting, intelligent, modules can cope with change and extremes
in traffic behaviour more easily, and will readily (re)organise themselves to absorb the
dynamic aspects of the overall system. These modules will take action, based on rules
implemented in the system and actual information gathered by the system. Joint action
may be expected where co-ordinating mles apply, together comprising a highly
scaleable control and management system for highway, inter- and inner-urban traffic.
The neat self contained manner in which objects intemperate in this environment,
limits the way components within such a system are allowed to behave. Such
limitations are not acceptable to a system intended for large scale integration.
To handle the information requirements (forecasting) for intelligent traffic control,
route-guidance and so on, specific models are needed. Chaos theory provides a basis
for traffic, modelling that can cope with the many different modes of transport that
traffic participants use, as well as the great flexibility in routing and uncertainties in
urban and inter-urban environment. To satisfy the information requirements for route
guidance, traffic management and intelligent traffic control, one needs systems that
cope with and predict the dynamic behaviour of large complex road systems.
The dynamic aspects of complex road systems are too important a part of the transport
system to be ignored in a modem traffic management system. Ever increasing
demands on the services provided by traffic management systems, require the
introduction of new and ever more capable models and components. Responsive plan
generation is a much discussed, but little implemented idea. The basic premise is that
existing signal-plan generation tools (e.g., TRANSYT or SCOOT) make rational
decisions about signal plans under varying conditions. True as this may be, these tools
cannot be used in a real-time setting for more than traffic control, and quickly
overreach the computing power of the underlying systems with increasing scale. Using
various technologies available today, the traffic management system can acquire quite
detailed data about actual traffic composition and the traffic participants. AI
techniques such as neural networks can be applied to the data and approximate the
decision-making behaviour of more conventional tools in order to attain real-time
control that adapts to varying traffic demands. The processing power requirements of
such systems on regional and national scale become far too big for centralised
computing. To further explore traffic management at these scales a decentralised,
distributed approach is necessary (Underwood et al. 1994).
3.2 Management architecture
In order to provide a distributed multi-functional IDTMS an architecture along the
following lines must be deployed. A network system with fixed links and opportunity
links must be established to connect the components within the system. A secure
communication protocol is required for all but the least vulnerable links within the
system. Components handling signalling and monitoring are installed per intersection
and segment. Generic co-ordination between neighbouring junctions is absorbed in the
control logic of individual components. Special co-ordination tasks are performed
through co-ordination components at a TMC. Data acquisition for the system is
performed in part through the detector network connected to the controller
components, extended with vehicle tracking capabilities. Vehicle tracking is
preferably implemented through on-board guidance or responder systems, possibly
doubling as route-guidance and incident reporting interface.
Sensor data collected is stored and aggregated locally, with on-demand reporting
through the network. Wide area traffic monitoring and management components
derive data from these distributed sources and provide traffic management services at
a TMC or designated site. This mechanism is also invoked at regional planning
centres, where data histories are compiled, and modelling and simulation tools can
interact with either stored data or on-line components.
Local control systems require switching and signalling hardware, which can be any
current technology. The interface between control components and other components
on the network are required to conform to a system-wide standard. Automated
decision functionality is provided through a standard service request interface, based
on a distributed (client/server) messaging and service system. Actual implementation
details regarding algorithm and server-platform are thus hidden from the client
system. This provides for the necessary flexibility of implementation and modification
of many details of the system.
3.3 Benefits of an Integrated DTMS
To put IDTMS in perspective, integration of dynamic traffic management systems is
no cure for all traffic problems, although it may streamline and reduce the traffic load
and give better information and advise. Whatever the improvements, more direct
routes available or more up-to-the-minute information, there would be a traffic
problem, or new ones would arise. So research on changing attitudes, other ways of
transport, etc. are equally important. To give a more explicit overview of the benefits
of a DTMS there is a need for categorising the benefits. The comparability between
categories, effectiveness and effects is explicitly not addressed here due to different
view points; for instance the fact that the government has other goals than individuals.
Benefits are not always easy to quantify as they are related to aspects like
environment, information and finance. Benefits and costs can be derived from
individuals, but are far more difficult to quantify for groups or the whole system.
According to de Romph (1994) six categories of benefits can be determined and for
each category some measurable effects are listed:
Improved operational efficier~cy: throughput, travel speed, travel times, delay times,
vehicle occupancy, predictability of travel times;
Improved safety: number of accidents, number of fatalities, accident costs, incident
response time, driver' s role in incidents;
Reduced use of energy and environmental impacts: fuel efficiency, fuel
consumption, emissions, noise pollution, land-use;
Increase of productivity: operating costs, volume of moved goods, JIT delivery
Improved comfort: motorists stress, drivers' fatigue, reduction of travel time, better
use of transport means;
Improved co-operation between system users: sharing of information, incident &
congestion information, models and consultation between agencies.
Due to integration several components can benefit from data aggregated in other or
related sub-systems. In this way the overall benefits may be greater than dynamic
traffic management alone. Other benefits which are only possible because of
integration are the involvement of road users, engineers, scientists, as well as those in
charge of traffic control and politicians, who can use such systems to gather
information and improve on their management or use of the transport infrastructure.
They may be able to use models of their own and get results based on actual data. In
this sense the IDTMS is more than a mere management system, although operational
benefits rely heavily on the forecasting properties of the system.
3.4 Example: Inner City Traffic Control System
DTMS/city, also known in other projects as UTC, is the sub-system dealing with
traffic management and traffic control in cities: the 'most problematic and complicated
part of the whole system as well as the most challenging and least researched. In urban
areas the basic units of traffic participants are varied: cars, pedestrians, bicycles, etc.
Prigogine & Herman (1971) and Disbro & Frame (1989) suggest that many non-
linearities.can be expressed in terms of the interactions of road users. To model traffic
in urban areas with some degree of accuracy one must account for all participant and
passive obstacles, as well as management and control systems. The participants are the
road users moving through the area, for instance motorists, cyclists, pedestrians,
public transport. Road administrators, police and traffic control systems form the
remaining, albeit mostly passive, actors in the model. Classical theories apply mostly
to motorists, and leave other, "less important", participants out. However the big
distortions in urban traffic are caused by the high manoeuvrability of the slower non-
motorists, which may appear to the other participants as unexpected events. When
taking part in traffic, a prominent aspect of a participant's subjective view is the
"world" he moves in; his span of attention. This is essentially the total of all other
traffic he is aware of and reacts to. In urban areas the complexity exceeds that of the
highway conditions due to the variety in means of transport, the difference in the
speed of the participant and the greater probability of unanticipated events.
In the domain of Urban Traffic Control much research is directed towards operation
and optimisation of individual signal-controlled road junctions. A different approach
is proposed to get not only linked intersections but also control algorithms for traffic
signalling operations that depend on actual traffic. DTMS/city is based on object
based system architecture and inter-object communication as well as specific control
objects that are artificial intelligent, are capable of calculating and optimising, and
have knowledge about the intersection(s). An implementation of an object-oriented
traffic light control system is shown to be a feasible alternative to conventional
designs (Roozemond, 1995). The next step in this project is to implement several
intelligent controlling agents dealing with the specific rules in specific areas. An UTC
exhibiting intelligent behaviour must, minimally, have the following capabilities:
handle operations in real time and, given the vast amount of knowledge, show some
adaptive and goal-oriented behaviour. The system should also be able to handle
unexpected or wrong input and learn from experiences.
The rules can be implemented in an agent but rules can also be implemented in objects
in the control space of that agent. Intelligent agents should be able to solve problems;
understand information; have intentions; draw distinctions between situations; plan
and predict consequences of actions; evaluate alternatives; generalise and synthesise
new concepts/ideas. Meta-rules will be included for traffic control situations when
operational goals are contradictory. The control objects can communicate; s.o they are
able to get insight in oncoming traffic and are able to co-ordinate the traffic signalling
operations in a way similar to traffic calming or public transport priority
measurements. Using all available information the control agent (re)calculates the
next, most optimal, state and operates the traffic lights accordingly.
In this way we get a system that makes better use of the capacity of the intersection. In
case of unsaturated intersections the strategy proves to be superior to fixed time
controlled intersections and even better then intersections with detectors. For
optimisation a multi-criteria ranking method is used.
4. MANAGEMENT APPLICATION OF INTEGRATED DTMS
The use of models in the world of civil engineering has grown to a considerable size
in the past decade, and will continue to grow in the foreseeable future. More models
are being developed and more data is needed and produced. Due to the growing
influence of the Decision Support System (DSS) many people are working with
models they have not developed themselves. The large amounts of available data,
scattered across many sources, combined with ever greater and more complex data
requirements of DSSs and modelling applications in use, cause considerable difficulty
for these naive users. For specific DSSs the problem Can be solved by better data
management and incorporated modelling, but for a general solution on large,
distributed systems many problems must still be resolved. For some DSSs in the
domain of civil engineering large distributed networks are suggested as being the
solution for their problems. When developing a total management system for transport
and associated systems, an important area of attention lies in data acquisition for
design and decision support systems to be developed in the near future. The type of
information required for these applications differs from the data required to perform
traffic control actions. The IDTMS can be regarded as an extension on the required
infrastructure to facilitate on-line gathering of design parameters for the transport
system. With the infrastructure and retrieval mechanisms designed in from the ground
up, IDTMS can also be regarded as a management and design tool with in-situ
components that perform data collection and traffic control functions.
With the development of faster computers, better and cheaper electronics and
telecommunications these developments have become economically viable. There has
been a great deal of study on the subject of congestion on highways using traffic flow
theory. Prigogine & Herman (1971) show that flow and kinetic theories are not
appropriate ways of modelling traffic in urban areas; even current flow-theoretical
traffic models do not sufficiently account for the specific problems in urban traffic. It
is suggested that many non-linearities can be expressed in terms of the interactions of
traffic participants. Given they are the smallest item in the transportation chain,
individual participants play a major role in the process. Usually they can choose
between the different modes of transport. Given enough information the selected
mode of transport can differ from the usual, thereby reducing the overall
transportation time. A good multi-modal information system is essential in this
process. IDTMS is the kind of tool to deliver this type of information, at the rates
required by specific applications.
Improvement in traffic control through priority scheduling, incident reporting and
management and improved co-ordination between different components within the
system, are to be among the first modifications to be expected in the management
strategy. Being able to request sufficient data on conditions of the transport system
under differing circumstances increase the flexibility of infrastructure design. This can
be expected because designs can be evaluated against on-line components as well as
stored data, which improves the margins on confidence in particular design decisions.
Increasing autonomy of intelligent systems in automation is a key element, aiming at
reducing the need for human intervention; relieving humans of attending other, more
complex procedures and providing intelligent assistance to decision making processes;
especially in traffic control where many fairly simple tasks have to be performed.
Through intelligent subsystems, further automation can be combined with more
flexibility and better performance. The less obvious improvements to be derived from
IDTMS lie in the field of transport systems diagnosis and forecasting. For systems
managers this is already an important step. For systems users this may lead to more
accurate or more specified or eustomised information supply, which the systems user
can then use to improve on journey planning.
5. BEYOND MANAGEMENT WI TH I NTEGRATED DTMS
5.1 Information
JMa IDTMS will largely resemble an integrated, multi-user, multi-discipline, multi-
modal traffic information system. The travellers, engineers, scientists, as well as
politicians can use the system as a means for obtaining the required information.
Travellers need more dynamic data, as well as forecasts about traffic condition in the
near future. Forecasting should be implemented in specific simulation sub-system
getting requests from users and appropriate data from the monitoring devices. An on-
board computer will be exchanging the users' data with the IDTMS. There are many
different kinds of data available and many traffic participants need only a small part of
it (Lotan & Koutsopoulos, 1994). Personal tailoring of data depending on needs as
well as technical capabilities should be made possible to meet the personal needs as
well as lowering traffic load on the network.
The effectiveness of systems that provide traffic information, such as route advise to
drivers and their potential for reducing congestion, depends heavily on drivers'
reaction to additional information. Decisions by drivers made about which road to use
and which to avoid during their journeys, are influenced by the purpose of their
journey, their personal knowledge of the locality and transportation network, road
signs as well as travel information delivery. Random fluctuations will occur due to
accidents or fluctuations in actual traffic conditions. The common feature of random
effects is that they cannot be predicted from historic data alone. In case of an accident
traffic can be redirected to avoid congestion through a new optimal route. The
algorithm used to perform the task of dynamic route guidance is the basis of the
success of this part of the system; response time, performance, effectiveness and
detailedness are all important. Criteria for the "best" route are: shortest, cheapest,
fastest, prettiest, etc.
Detailed information is essential for dealing with control issues on a small time-scale.
For planning purposes specific simulation models may be used to get the appropriate
data requested by the user. So specific interest groups may have specific models or
data available in the system. Different kinds of data are required for different types of
use. Customised or selective information supporting the specific needs of users or sub-
systems requires flexible data delivery and presentation to be integrated into the
system. Information then becomes the binding factor, the glue, between the
components in the system.
5.2 Potential Use
Applications of IDTMS can be found in several transport related disciplines. Where
the main applications lie with operational aspects of the transport system, traffic
control and traffic management, the tactical and strategic potential of the system
should not be understated.
Tactical applications include preparations and diversions to accomodate special events
or convoys. Applications may also support curfew and evacuation plans, and provide
an environment for efficient operational management of disasters or large scale
events. GIS interfaces to the IDTMS can be used in support of co-ordinating efforts
and vehicle tracking under these conditions. Multi-modal logistics can also be aided
through both GIS and standardised data interfaces. Regional planning and
infrastructure maintenance and design will benefit from the data collection performed
routinely by the system. Infrastructure planning may have the additional benefit of
actuated data concerning the transport system. The information required for the tasks
may already be available in the system, but can be added to the relevant services when
not available. This is greatly facilitated by the flexible design of the IDTMS regarding
data and sub-system implementation, and the fact that IDTMS already has a dense
data-collection facility closely mapping the physical infrastructure.
Strategic applications of IDTMS can be found in detailed policy analysis or scenario
analysis. These can be based on model-results and historical data which will become
increasingly accurate with time. With such data availability, simulation and modelling
of the transport system on any reasonable scale within the boundaries of the IDTMS
are feasible with greater accuracy.
6. FURTHER RESEARCH
As may be clear from the previous chapters, the whole IDTMS is far from operational.
In the paper we have distinguished three different time-frames of dynamic traffic
management: traffic control, management and planning systems. The most important
research questions will be mentioned; first some of the common research topics are
given before further research questions per system is given.
Most importantly; all specific aspects on architecture, networking etc. should be
standardised and agreed on. Interaction and openness of the sysytem are among the
important. Specific research is needed to get a good insight on these factors.
While considerable effort is being devoted to understanding the detailed interactions
among a few agents and designing operational DAI systems that can deal with simple
problems, relatively little is known about the global behaviour of these systems as
they are scaled up to deal with more realistic problems. There are a number of
shortcomings and problems that are related to the distribution of autonomous agents
and tasks. When computational agents in these systems make choices in the presence
of delayed and incomplete knowledge about the state of the system; their dynamics
can become extremely complex, hence giving rise to non-linear oscillations. This can
result in many agents making poor decisions when seen from a global perspective
(even though they appear locally reasonable), thus leading to significantly lowered
performance and great difficulty in programming the individual agents.
Possible problems arise when complex systems, where there are non-linear aspects
involved, have to be verified, validated and evaluated. This has to be taken into
account, one way or an other, and has to be researched to get a grip on involvement of
non-linearities, and to get insight on verification and validation processes of these
large complex systems. The behaviour of traffic participants will change if actuated
data is presented. The amount of changes are not yet clear and the influences of data
availability is one of the remaining research questions. Not only in this project but has
to be tackled also in other Dynamic traffic management systems.
For traffic control the research agenda comprises to adjusting the control schemes to
appropriate ones that can deal with dynamic and actuated data. Quite a few systems
are easily adjustable if there is an interface with other traffic management or control
systems present. Presumably some combination of historic data and actual data will be
needed to give predictions further ahead then the next 15 minutes or so. For large
systems traffic control may need to be reconsidered and the sensitivity of the larger
system to be researched.
For traffic management more research is needed as they can comprise more models,
functions in the IDTMS. All the new management systems have to be designed and
integrated. The interaction and data availability will need to be researched. Also the
ownership of data need to be addressed. For engineering firms their data and models
are costly, so financial debiting has to be integrated in some way.
For traffic planning systems all new possibilities will arise when given access to this
amount of data and models. Most of the possibilities are still in their early
development phases or need to be designed yet.
7. CONCLUSI ON
A DTMS is no cure for the traffic problems; it may streamline and reduce the traffic
load, have more direct routes available, give good information and advises and still
there would be a traffic problem. So research on changing attitudes, other ways of
transport, etc. are equally important. To give a more explicit overview of the benefits
of a DTMS there is a need for categorising the benefits. The comparability between
categories, effectiveness and effects is explicitly not addressed here due to different
view points; for instance the fact that the government has other goals than individuals.
Benefits are not always easy to quantify as they are related to aspects like
environment, information, safety and finance. Seen from a broader perspective this
should be the way and will allow a sensible traffic management strategy to be
executed by a network of modular traffic control systems.
To be able to even partly solve planning, management and control problems, there is a
definite need for more suited models and control strategies. The characteristics of
these models are that they are capable of realistic, real-time simulations and suitable
for calculating the effects of measurements.
Applications can be derived from standardised features of the IDTMS: continuous
data collection; functional adaptibility; flexible data selection accross the system.
These can also be found in a centralised design. However the corresponding storage
and processing capacity will not. Examples can be found in Europe, USA and Japan
governments as well as private companies are investing in the establishments of the,
to be integrated, technologies to make these systems available. To be able to
economically develop IDTMS in the future, adopting rigourous interfacing standards
and implementing these in current investments is necessary now.
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