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Boeing 707 re-engining programmes

Charles Hollosi, Senior Analyst with IHS Jane's


DS Forecasts
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The Boeing 707 airframe has been in military service since 1957,
operating in a wide range of roles including transport, tanking, and
intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR). The ubiquity
and versatility of the type, together with the trials and tribulations of
the acquisition programmes intended to replace it, mean airframes
are likely to be flying well into the first half of the 21st Century.
While airframe fatigue is less of an issue for military aircraft than
their commercial airline counterparts, extended service life has
focused attention on efficiency of operation in terms of
maintenance and fuel economy. As a result there have been a
number of engine replacement programmes initiated,
predominantly in the United States but also among a number of
overseas operators of the aircraft, to improve performance over the
original Pratt & Whitney (P&W) JT3D/TF33 turbofans.
In addition to these re-engining programmes, operators procuring
707-based platforms since the mid-1980s have elected to acquire
them with more efficient high-bypass turbofans. Examples include
the UK Royal Air Force (RAF) E-3D Sentry Airborne Warning and
Control Systems aircraft ordered in 1986-7, which are powered by
CFM International (a team of General Electric and Snecma)
CFM56-2A-3 power plants, as are the French Air Forces E-3Fs
ordered in 1987, together with the E-3As supplied to Saudi Arabia.
The US Navy (USN) also acquired its E-6A Mercury
communications aircraft (later upgraded as E-6B airborne
command post aircraft) equipped with this engine.
Of the US Air Forces (USAFs) original KC-135A tanker fleet, 157
were modified in the early 1980s with newer P&W TF33-PW-102
engines sourced from redundant commercial airliners to become
the KC-135E. These boasted a 14% increase in fuel efficiency,
enabling 20% more fuel to be offloaded compared to the earlier A
models. Later, another 415 KC-135As were modified with CFM-
56s and re-designated as either the KC-135R or KC-135T (the
latter being ex-KC-135Qs, which can also receive fuel in flight). The
first flight of a KC-135R took place in August 1982. Upgrade of the
KC-135Es with the CFM-56 was considered but not taken up on
cost grounds, and all these aircraft were retired by September
2009. France, Singapore and Turkey have all acquired KC-135R
tanker aircraft.
According to information issued by Boeing in 1999, CFM56
engines burn 15-25% less fuel at cruising speeds and provide
greater thrust than engines on previous models. With the
increased power available for take-off, the aircraft can get airborne
with significantly increased fuel load compared to the KC-135A
model, allowing it to stay on station for longer and making the
overall tanker fleet far more effective and efficient. This enables the
KC-135R to offload 50% more fuel payload on a medium radius
mission.
These efficiency gains, as well as improvements in noise emissions
and maintainability, have encouraged wider applications of re-
engining across the USAF Boeing 707 fleet. CFM56 turbofans
have been fitted to RC-135U Combat Sent and RC-135V/W Rivet
Joint signals intelligence platforms, with the first conversion being
completed in June 1999. The three RC-135S Cobra Ball ballistic
missile signature and telemetry intelligence aircraft were the last to
go through the RC-135 re-engining programme in 2006.
Further efficiencies are being implemented via the CFM Propulsion
Upgrade Program (C-PUP). Under the upgrade, the CFM56-2
(designated F108 in military service) turbofan's high pressure
turbine nozzle, compressor blades and vanes, turbine shroud
assembly, and turbine blades will all be replaced with modern
The USAF upgraded its KC-135 fleet with the CFM56 power plant and re-designated them KC-
135R in the early 1980s IHS/Gareth Jennings: 1398032
A mechanic from the USAFs 546th Propulsion Maintenance Squadron works on a CFM56-2 /
F108 engine of a KC-135 Stratotanker. The USAF is upgrading 1,440 of these engines to reduce
the maintenance and fuel costs to its KC-135 fleet and to the US Navys E-6B platform
US Air Force: 1480511
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parts. According to the USAF, the upgraded CFM56-2 will achieve
a predicted 1.5% to 1.7% increase in fuel efficiency and result in
fewer hours lost to maintenance.
The first of 1,440 engines to be upgraded under C-PUP was
installed at MacDill Air Force Base, Florida, on a KC-135R on
15 January this year, and the Department of Defense has
earmarked USD159.5 million over the next four years for 493
engine upgrade kits. Some 414 KC-135s are due for upgrade,
while nine engines will also be provided to the USN for its 16 E-6B
Mercury command-and-control aircraft, and a decision on further
engines for the navy is pending.
The upgrade is expected to save the USAF and USN around
USD2 billion in operating and support costs. General Electric will
provide the first 15 engines, with the first USAF-produced power
plant coming from the engine depot at Oklahoma City Air Logistics
Complex later in 2013. Once the programme is at full flow, the
service expects 120 engines to be upgraded annually, with the
entire process set to take about 12 years to complete.
While a significant proportion of the US militarys Boeing 707 fleet
has been upgraded with new engines, the programme to re-engine
the USAF E-8C J-STARS radar ground surveillance aircraft has
stalled. The Pratt and Whitney (P&W) JT8D-219 engine was
selected for the upgrade, providing performance improvements
including lower fuel consumption, better take-off performance and
climb rates and increased time on station, according to prime
contractor Northrop Grumman, and the company announced in
May 2012 that flight testing had successfully been completed.
However P&W told IHS Jane's in July 2012 that the programme
had been terminated with two shipsets (eight engines) delivered
rather than the 80 engines originally planned.
Elsewhere, proposals by the Netherlands in the early 2000s to re-
engine NATOs 17-aircraft E-3A Sentry fleet primarily to reduce
noise levels have thus far made little progress due to budgetary
issues. However, as a result of the need to extend the platform's
out-of-service date, NATO officials have recently said that a re-
engining programme is being re-evaluated.
Chile received three ex-USAF KC-135Es between 2010 and 2012,
upgraded with P&W JTD8 engines. An upgrade of the countrys
Boeing 707 Phalcon airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft was
announced in 2009 to extend its service life. This included
replacement of the engines with the JT8D, providing fleet
commonality and reduced operating costs, but no progress has
been reported since then.
The RAF could potentially extend the service life of its fleet of E-3D
Sentries out to 2035, which would likely include engine
enhancements similar to the USAF C-PUP initiative or even
outright replacement of the power plants. However, progress in
such a programme would clearly be dependent on availability of
funding. I
The Chilean Air Force is examining the possibility of replacing the original Pratt & Whitney
(P&W) JT3D/TF33 turbofans of its Phalcon airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft with JT8D,
although no progress has been reported since 2009. IHS/Gareth Jennings: 1398016
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End of year assessment for 2012 global
C4ISR market
Jim Oberlin, Senior Analyst, IHS Industry
Research & Analysis, Aerospace & Defence
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KEY POINTS:
US Investment in cyber security and cyber support
demonstrates growth in a declining market.
Outside the US, the largest investment in C4ISR system
development and integration is in Multi-Role Electronics
for airborne ISR platforms.
The C4ISR market is worth a trillion dollars over our 10 year
forecast as of January 2013 and runs the gamut from the
extensive United States intelligence support outsourcing to
communications, command and control (C2), geospatial, optical
and radar sensors to C4ISR aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles and
space-based surveillance, much of it in large support contracts.
C4ISR looks to fare well in the years ahead with a compound
annual growth rate (CAGR) of -2.76%. This represents stability in
the face of extreme budget pressures. The US has 57% of the
market with a CAGR of -4.43%, declining steadily through the
forecast. Production and services decline at a lesser rate than the
overall US C4ISR market.
The rest of the world has 43% of the market with a remarkably
stable CAGR of .037%. This somewhat misleading average for the
non-US market over the forecast includes real growth in the first
three years of the forecast followed by a levelling off. Production
and services exhibit growth throughout the forecast outside the
US.
Stability in the market accrues from instability in threats that drive
funding of sensors, and networks that enable sharing of ISR
information and exercise of C2. Counter-terrorism requires
identification and tracking of threats down to the individual level
and communication of information down to the small unit.
Sovereignty over ocean economic resources requires deployment
of sensor platforms and communications networks. These threats
drive procurement of ISR platforms outside the US and upgrade of
existing platforms in the US market as well.
Most of the systems that will be produced and deployed to meet
these threats will be technology just completing development or
available as mature off-the-shelf technology. Handheld C2 systems
in particular will tend to be commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS)
devices. There are opportunities to upgrade sensors on existing
platforms and to upgrade existing data links. This is not a market
for government investment in technology development; it is a
market for corporate investment in incremental upgrades and off-
the-shelf solutions.
Weapons of mass destruction require space-borne ISR assets and
missile defences. This threat does require government investment
in additional development of sensors and C2 systems. This is the
focus of system development in the US.
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A threat that has not yet emerged is the use of advanced
technology to deny access to disputed areas the anti-access
area denial (A2AD) threat. This threat would drive funding to
develop advanced sensors and data links that can operate in the
face of an A2AD threat. The C4ISR systems require platforms that
can operate in the face of that threat. The fielding of platforms and
systems that create an A2AD environment is a political decision.
Should the A2AD threat materialise, counters would begin to
appear toward the end of the 2012-2021 forecast. There is no
indication of such investment in the unclassified US programmes in
2012.
The largest functional segment is Multi-Role Electronics; essentially
sensors and mission equipment packages on airborne ISR and
maritime patrol platforms. Again there is a difference in the US
market and the rest of the world. This function, with 12% of the US
market, represents mostly upgrades of current platforms (aside
from P-8A, Broad Area Maritime Surveillance and Global Hawk
Block 40) with revenue of USD70 billion and a CAGR of -3.63%. In
the rest of the world this segment has 24% of the market with
revenue of USD109 billion and a CAGR of 2.6%, reflecting demand
for additional ISR platforms to protect maritime resources and
maintain sovereignty.
In the US market, Network Infrastructure is the next most
significant function, with USD65 billion in revenue and a growth
CAGR of 1.28%. Multiple, research and technology functions
follow. These deal in support to intelligence activity and C4ISR
programme offices. Cyber security, with a CAGR of 4.9%, and
cyber support, with a CAGR of 1.27%, both also demonstrate
growth in a declining market.
Outside the US, the next most important functional segments are
radios/terminals with a revenue of USD45 billion and a CAGR of
1%, surveillance/reconnaissance with a revenue of USD34 billion
and a CAGR of -3.12%, battle management C2 with a revenue of
USD30 billion and a CAGR of 0.7%, network infrastructure with a
revenue of USD25 billion and a CAGR of -2.46%, and tactical
networks with a revenue of USD19 billion and a CAGR of -4.31%.
These countries are deploying a comprehensive communications
network to exploit information provided by new and upgraded ISR
platforms.
A common trend across the C4ISR market is the decreasing
investment in system development. Most of the market has
embraced upgrades to existing systems or off-the-shelf solutions.
Governments will only invest in solutions where industry simply
cannot assume the risk of developing advanced technology to
unique but important requirements.
In the US C4ISR market, which is declining at a CAGR of -4.43%,
the two largest life cycle segments are declining at less than the
market while system development is declining at three times the
rate. Services enjoys a revenue of USD280 billion with a CAGR of
-2.5%. Production enjoys revenue of USD251 billion with a CAGR
of -3%. System development has revenue of USD21.8 billion with
a CAGR of -13.11%.
In the rest of the world production and services enjoys growth
above the market CAGR of 0.37% while system development
declines at a rate a bit steeper than in the US. Production enjoys
revenue outside the US of USD332.8 billion with a CAGR of
3.88%. Services enjoy revenue of USD51.8 billion with a CAGR of
3.23%. System Development has a revenue of USD13.8 billion
and declines with a CAGR of -15.5%.
Note that system development in the US is still 1.58 times the rest
of the world combined. The focus of this investment differs from
the rest of the world in a most illuminating way.
Of the functions in which the US invests in system development,
only cyber security and cyber attack show growth. The largest
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investment is in ballistic missile defence with 20.7% of system
development and demonstration/engineering, manufacturing and
development (SDD/EMD). The next three largest segments deal
with sensors and mission equipment packages on ISR platforms
and intelligence analysis of data. Once existing programmes of
record complete development, other capabilities will be procured
off-the-shelf.
The function outside the US with the largest investment in C4ISR
system development and integration by far is Multi-Role
Electronics for airborne ISR platforms, with 45% of the revenue.
Homeland security C2 has 13% of the investment, battle
management C2 13%, air and missile defence C2 has 9% and
tactical networks has 8.5% develop and integrate C3 systems that
exploit ISR data.
There are significant opportunities in production and services
across the worldwide C4ISR market. Governments will invest in
solutions for ballistic missile defence, airborne ISR sensors and
mission equipment packages. The remaining opportunities will be
for corporate investment in upgrades to current systems and
affordable off-the-shelf solutions with minimal technical risk. I
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88 Armoured Vehicles Market Overview
Jon Hawkes, Senior Analyst, IHS Janes DS
Forecast
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The global military ground vehicles market as a whole
decreased by 3.3% between 2008 and 2012. Economic
realities have resulted in cancellations, delays, and
reductions in programmes; however, the market is set to
improve slightly, with IHS Janes DS Forecast predicting a
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of -1.4% through
2022. In spite of this continuing negative CAGR, there are
areas of the market that will be less affected and
opportunities do exist in the future.
Analysis shows that 88 vehicles are likely to fare slightly worse
than the wider wheeled vehicles market, with a CAGR of -3.4%,
equating to a drop of USD1.6 billion through 2022 and a total
2013-2022 market value of USD61 billion. A significant portion of
this is due to Italy not placing follow-on orders for the Freccia, as
well as Frances Vhicule Blind de Combat d'Infanterie (VBCI) and
Portugals Pandur II programmes dropping off from 2015 onwards.
Production accounts for approximately 64% of spending in the
market, broadly similar to the overall military ground vehicle figure
of 62%.
The Piranha family, including the LAV and Stryker variants, still
looks to be the platform family of choice in the 88 market,
representing around 30% of 88 production and upgrades in the
forecast period. This is not to say that there arent other highly
capable platforms on the market. In many ways Piranhas market
share reflects the size of US and Middle Eastern contracts in
comparison to contracts in the rest of the world, as well as the
influence that success in the US market can have in emerging
markets. Other significant platforms include Patrias Armoured
Modular Vehicle (AMV), Oto Melaras Centauro (Freccia), ARTECs
Boxer, and Russias BTR-80 family. Still, given the popularity of the
Piranha family, General Dynamics leads the 88 market by a
considerable margin, followed by a mixture of Western and
Russian suppliers, including Fiat-Finmeccanica, Nexter, ARTEC,
and Patria.
Despite this, opportunities do exist in the 88 market, with IHS
Janes DS Forecast showing a good growth in opportunities from
2013 onwards. The greatest opportunities are anticipated in
Europe and the Middle East, and to a lesser extent in North
America and East Asia. The main obstacle for the market will be
Western states continued economic issues, with essentially all
Western European nations having cut back or delayed many major
procurement decisions until later in the decade. However, with
states like the UK pledging increased spending after 2015, it is
likely that a renewed interest in the 88 market will occur with
opportunities arising as programmes such as the UKs Future
Rapid Effect System (FRES) Utility Vehicle (UV) see increased
investment.
Guide to the report:
We have broken the global market into geographic regional profiles
which are covered on the following pages. Each profile includes a
heat map showing total spending for the 2012 2021 forecast
period, a chart displaying our year by year forecast for the region,
and some general observations and key market figures.
IHS Janes DS Forecasts market forecasts are factored by a
probability estimate, P(Go), to calculate the expected values. This
enables us to enter all opportunities we can find without
overstating the market as if everything will get funded, because we
know this isnt true. This, along with our other subjective estimates
reflects the risk to programmes, giving you the confidence to use
our aggressively conservative forecasts. I
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Oceania: Oceania is often a quiet region for military ground vehicles, with relatively modest expenditure that resides primarily in
sustainment. In the 88 market there is some activity, however, with an upgrade of 113 Australian ASLAV vehicles under the Land 112
Phase 4 programme starting in April 2013. The effort is a fairly standard upgrade for ageing LAV platforms and is primarily based on
protection and mobility. IHS Janes DS Forecast also believes an opportunity exists to upgrade the New Zealand armed forces NZLAV in
a similar manner, as the two fleets were procured at approximately the same time and face similar issues. The remainder of regional
spending is on sustainment of the various LAV-based fleets.
Western Europe: As would be expected, the bulk of 88 spending in Europe is on the three well established programmes, namely
Frances VBCI, Italys Centauro (Freccia), and Spains VBR. Most Western European 88 programmes are concluding production in the
coming years, with little in the way of new production until the later part of the decade. The Dutch element of the Boxer Multi-Role
Armoured Vehicle (MRAV) programme is one of the few exceptions.
Other programmes carrying large revenues include The Netherlands Boxer procurement, the first units of which are due to be delivered
in 2013; the potential for a wheeled solution fulfilling the Danish M113 replacement requirement; and the UKs FRES UV. The Danish
requirement initially looked at four each of tracked and wheeled solutions, but due to cost constraints the Danes chose two wheeled and
three tracked bids, which appear to support their reported leaning towards a tracked solution. The FRES UV will almost certainly be an
88 vehicle, with General Dynamics Piranha V initially selected as the preferred bidder before the programme was put on hold in 2008.
The UKs involvement in the now successful Boxer MRAV programme also shows a leaning towards an 88 platform. UK Ministry of
Defence representatives have recently stated that the programme will see renewed investment in the later part of the decade, but
warned that it remains easy prey for cutbacks as vehicles and upgrades acquired through urgent operational requirements over the past
decade are perceived as providing an acceptable interim solution.
North America: North America is unsurprisingly dominated by the Piranha family of vehicles, including LAV and Stryker platforms in US
and Canadian service. There is relatively little room or appetite for other 88 models to be added to the North American fleets, although
potentially very large new production opportunities exist in the US Marine Corps (USMC) Marine Personnel Carrier (MPC) programme,
which is currently trialling four vehicles: Lockheed Martin partnered with Finland's Patria to offer the Havoc based on Patria's AMV; BAE
Systems and Iveco are offering a version of the Italian firm's SUPERAV; General Dynamics is understood to have submitted a variant of
the Piranha family; and SAIC has teamed with Singapore-based ST Kinetics to bid with the Terrex. Recent reports suggest the USMC
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may have to choose between the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle, which it intends to use to replace a number of its HMMWV tactical vehicles,
and the MPC. As the programme stands, it would see up to 380 MPC vehicles produced by the end of the forecast period for a total
value of around USD1.5 billion. Some opportunities are still too unclear to be fully included in the forecast, such as the US Armys
Armored Multi-Purpose Vehicle (AMPV), which, although favouring a tracked solution utilising existing Bradley hulls, has stated repeatedly
that a wheeled solution would be carefully considered. Indeed, a wheeled solution would appear better suited to the non-Armor Brigade
Combat Team (ABCT) element of the AMPV programme, where the higher protection and mobility necessary to keep up with a fight
alongside tracked main battle tanks is not as important.
Upgrades and reset are a significant portion of North American 88 revenue, with upgrades to Canadian LAV fleets and reset and
refurbishment of US Stryker fleets ongoing. The first exchange Stryker was displayed in late 2012, with General Dynamics arguing that a
hybrid of reset and new-build is a more cost-effective way to produce new double-v hull (DVH) Stryker platforms that could be used in
the future. Mexico sits as a very small portion of the market, and although various sources have reported their interest in Stryker
platforms recently, this is unlikely to be a large procurement in comparison with other opportunities in the region or globally.
Eastern Europe: Russia and Poland are a long way ahead in spending in Eastern Europe, the former on its continuing production of
BTR-80 platforms and the latter on its Patria AMV-based Rosomak vehicles. Russia has made several statements suggesting a
commitment to increase the number of wheeled vehicles in its fleet, many of which would likely be 88s, especially those replacing
similarly sized and capable BMPs. Other than assessing a number of Italian Centauro vehicles to inform any future vehicle, Russia has
not made many statements with regard to dates and numbers of vehicles required, meaning there could be more size to this particular
market. As is normal, however, foreign involvement in the production of these vehicles is likely to be minimal, with recent foreign
involvement such as the Iveco LMV co-production looking unlikely to be repeated as rumours surface that the LMV procurement will be
re-run with greater favour to the domestic, but reportedly less capable, GAZ Tigr.
Polands Rosomak represents a significant portion of Patrias AMV sales, alongside Sweden, South Africa, and Croatia. The AMV is
nonetheless proving a popular platform with its users, and if the AMV-based Havoc entrant in the USMCs MPC programme were to be
selected for production, it will likely continue to gain popularity as an amphibious capable APC/IFV platform.
Middle East: Although the region shows a negative CAGR overall, this is primarily due to a front loading of significant sized programmes
with little announced for the out years of the forecast. The Middle East has a number of valuable 88 programmes, the two largest of
which are the Saudi Arabian Piranha/LAV production which will see around 600 vehicles procured over the forecast period as part of an
ongoing programme that has seen a total of around 2,000 vehicles ordered and the United Arab Emirates (UAEs) 88 programme,
which should soon see a contract award for the supply of up to 700 vehicles. An announcement for this UAE programme was expected
at the recent IDEX show in Abu Dhabi but was not forthcoming. Reports indicate that there are three vehicles shortlisted for the
requirement: Nexters VBCI, Patrias AMV, and Otokars Arma. Tawazun will form a joint venture with the winning company, a fairly typical
arrangement for foreign companies looking to undertake defence-related offset projects in the country. Other larger regional programmes
include Iraqi BTR-4 and LAV-25 vehicles and the potential opportunity to provide Oman with a mid-life upgrade for their Piranha vehicles
later in the decade.
East Asia: China is potentially the biggest producer of 88 vehicles in terms of volume in the region, with significant numbers of VN1s
(locally designated the ZBD-09) understood to be in manufacturing. However, as is often the case with Chinese domestic production, it is
difficult to ascertain accurate figures for volumes and revenues.
Outside of China, the bulk of 88-based spending in East Asia is done by Malaysia, South Korea, and Taiwan. Malaysia leads regional
spending with its FNSS Savunma Sistemleri Pars (Leopard) procurement that has seen 257 vehicles ordered in a contract worth an
estimated USD559 million, with the potential for up to 500 vehicles to be ordered. South Korea has a substantial 66 and 88 AFV
programme that could procure between 600 and 1,000 vehicles. Hyundai Rotem was selected as the preferred bidder to develop and
produce the vehicle for serial production later in the decade. Finally, Taiwan will see 600 CM-32 Yunpao (Clouded Leopard) vehicles
procured, with production currently ongoing following a number of production related quality issues that have now reportedly been
resolved. The most serious of these saw noticeable cracks in the vehicles armour and hulls, issues that were attributed to unspecified
problems in the manufacturing process.
Meanwhile, Singapore is producing the Terrex vehicle and an initial batch of 135 to equip the first three battalions has been completed. A
second reported batch of up to 165 vehicles is understood to be completing production by the end of 2013. This would bring the fleet to
the reported overall requirement of 300 vehicles, with further orders unlikely to occur.
Africa: The bulk of African 88 spending is on the South African Patria AMV-based Badger family of vehicles. South Africa has ordered a
total of 264 of these vehicles using Denel Land Systems as the prime contractor. Five initial vehicles are undergoing trials in country, with
serial production of the 259 remaining vehicles to be carried out in South Africa. The contract for the 259 serial vehicles is anticipated
later this year.
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The remainder of the region is primarily represented by sustainment work for existing fleets of BTR-60/80 and Piranha/LAV vehicles. A
number of opportunities exist throughout the region to replace aged legacy fleets with more capable vehicles, and many of these
prospects could be ideal for 88 platforms.
West and Central Asia: West and Central Asia is a relatively quiet region for 88 procurement and production, with the vast majority of
spending represented by Indias 88 vehicle project, which does not appear to have progressed much since a request for proposals
(RfP) was issued in 2009. The RfP stated that an initial 100 vehicles would be procured from the prime contractor, with up to 500 more
to be produced locally.
The region also has a small number of BTR-80 platforms being produced for Kazakhstan, and a small opportunity to expand
Bangladeshs BTR-80 fleet, both of which would see around 100 units produced. The remainder of the regional spending reflects the
sustainment of the almost entirely BTR-60/80-based vehicle fleets.
South America: South America has a mixture of foreign and domestic production, with the former represented by Venezuela and
Colombia, and the latter through Argentine opportunities. Venezuela has production underway for 150 BTR-80 vehicles, with
manufacturing extending to around 2019. Colombia announced in January that it will be procuring the Piranha-based LAV-III for its 88
programme, with an initial USD65.3 million contract for 24 vehicles having been signed. The overall requirement is to replace 110 legacy
vehicles, but it is understood that the overall procurement of new LAV-III platforms is likely to be much lower than this figure.
Argentina has previously stated a potential requirement for 66 or 88 vehicles in APC and IFV configurations to replace a number of
legacy systems. The state recently evaluated the Brazilian VBTP-MR Guaranis 66 variant and it intends to buy 14 trial units; however,
representatives recently suggested that they would prefer the full procurement to be for an 88 variant. I
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What next in UAV tech?
Huw Williams, Unmanned Systems Editor, IHS
Janes International Defence Review
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IHS Janes DS Forecasts projects that the global unmanned aerial
vehicle (UAV) market will be valued at USD86.7 billion between
2013 and 2022, with almost half of that total in the US alone
figures which suggest a healthy future for this sector. However,
while the utility of UAVs on the contemporary battlefield is
undeniable as is the fact that they are now cemented in the
fabric of modern military doctrine and inventories it is far from
certain what types of systems customers will be acquiring and
what technologies will be developed.
The conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq have been significant in the
proliferation of UAVs and have done much to drive technological
development in these platforms, however, the demand for systems
to meet the here-and-now requirements of the militaries operating
in those theatres has not necessarily led to the provision of the
best possible solutions to the battlefield. Technology issues with
the current crop of UAVs have become apparent, some stalwarts
of ISR provision have powerplant problems, video feeds are known
to have been tapped into over Iraq, viruses have infected ground
control stations in the US and the loss of an RQ-170 over Iran has
demonstrated that even clandestine, stealthy technology is far
from infallible.
The destination of tax payers dollars will depend greatly on where
and how militaries envisage future wars will be waged. Certainly,
many of the UAVs employed in Afghanistan and elsewhere will not
be suited to operating in contested airspace. Likewise, due to
budget restraints commanders may be hesitant to use higher-end
platforms on small-scale, short-term operations.
What industry requires is direction from the customer which
despite emerging UAV requirements and industry in other parts of
the world largely boils down to the US military, and at present
what the customer wants is uncertain.
Despite publishing roadmaps for their requirements the US
military is at present more concerned with budgetary pressures
and significant, detailed plans of next generation systems are yet
to be rolled out. Of all the US services the navy is appearing to be
the most prominent in setting out its stall, with the UCAS-D
programme progressing and its forthcoming UCLASS effort, if the
latter comes to fruition the results of both may go some way to
shaping developments in the US, and consequently beyond.
The short term priorities are seemingly focused on getting the best
out of the current crop of platforms and ironing out ongoing issues
- for example, major efforts in the US Army include new engines
for the services RQ-7B Shadows the harsh hot-and-high
conditions in Afghanistan have provided a tough proving ground
for many UAVs.
Increased utility will likely be the key, with the expansion in the
mission set of existing aircraft to place greater emphasis on
electronic, signals and communications intelligence roles for
example- a wider range and more sophisticated payloads will be of
utmost importance.
Other important areas of concern include improving and securing
communications, as well as the encryption of systems; extending
endurance will also be a priority, which in part is likely to be
achieved through the introduction of heavy-fuel engines and
advanced battery technologies in manportable UAVs.
Of paramount importance is the integration of UAVs into national
airspace and certifying platforms to manned-aircraft standards
where possible. Crucial to this is the development and fielding of
sense-and-avoid technologies, efforts to do which are well
underway. National airspace integration will enable UAVs to
expand their mission set to include law enforcement and
commercial roles for example, which could prove to be a lifeline for
a number of systems.
The further development of manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T)
has also been identified as a priority, especially by the US Army,
which is already seeing the benefits of this fledgling capability in
Afghanistan. Leveraging the best aspects of UAVs and helicopters
could prove to be a significant force multiplier.
While getting value for money out of existing inventories is a
definite priority, investment in the next generation will continue to
be important, as any stall in the development of new systems
could leave US companies and the military playing catch-up at
some point down the road. Indeed, the defence primes in the US
have already noted the areas that they will focus their attentions,
which include improved survivability both through stealth and
defensive aids suites the integration of advanced payloads, open
US Army Gray Eagle UAV at Forward Operating Base Shank IHS/Huw Williams: 1455337
Technical Update IHS Janes Defence Insight Report Air Platforms
2013 IHS March 2013 11
architecture designs, greater autonomy, and the ability to self
deploy across international airspace. Although it is unlikely that we
will see a stealthy, supersonic platform unveiled in the near term,
doubtless Skunk Works and others are investigating these next-
generation capabilities and black programmes are in place.
As sequestration in the US defence budget bites hard and other
traditional markets wane, the major players in the UAV industry,
both from the US and Israel, are likely to focus their sales efforts
elsewhere, and indeed Israel has been busy in delivering aircraft to
the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) nations. While these
nations have indigenous programmes underway their UAV
capabilities are yet to be proven, even those of the Chinese who
have unveiled a string of aircraft models at defence exhibitions and
have numerous aircraft images leaked on the internet are yet to
provide any concrete proof of the performance they claim their
platforms hold. It is possible that significant technology
developments may be made by US and Israeli companies working
with overseas industry, with the established companies providing
proven releasable technologies and their partners the capital and
markets. I
Technical Update IHS Janes Defence Insight Report Air Platforms
2013 IHS March 2013 12
Fits and starts: missile defence in early 2013
Nick Brown, Editor of IHS Janes International
Defence Review
.......................................................................................................
KEY POINTS:
Missile defence developments across Israel, Europe and
the US have been a mixed bag of positives and
negatives in early 2013
In particular, questions arose over some lower tier
solutions and Europes nascent missile shield
Iranian and North Korean missile testing in late 2012 and early
2013 appear to have underlined a growing commitment to ballistic
missile defence (BMD) in the early part of this year.
In mid-March, the US Department of Defense (DoD) made the
connection explicit, announcing a budget allocation of just under
USD1 billion to bolster its BMD capabilities specifically to counter
threats from those two countries. That funding would cover 14
additional Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) interceptors in
Fort Greely, Alaska despite those missiles not having covered
themselves in glory during testing and the deployment of a
Raytheon AN/TPY-2 radar to Japan.
However, that funding is at the expense of and pretty much
sounds the death knell for the European Phased Adaptive
Approach (EPAA) Phase 4 missile shield as outlined by President
Barack Obama in 2009; and is still stringently opposed by Russia.
EPAA Phase 1 essentially involved the deployment of US Navy
BMD-capable Aegis destroyers and cruisers to European waters
and was easily achieved. Phase 2 is in progress, looking to
establish a radar and launchers for Standard Missile 3 (SM-3)
interceptors in Romania, ahead of an in-service date scheduled for
2015. Phase 3 is set for 2018 and should see another Aegis
Ashore base established in Poland complete with additional SM-
3s, along with flight tests of the enhanced SM-3 Block IIA from
2014.
Phase 4 was to include the deployment of SM-3 Block IIB, offering
a more substantial ability to engage intercontinental rather than
just theatre or medium-range ballistic missiles, with down-select
of competing bids from Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon.
However, that has now been culled to enable the US to focus on
homeland defence.
This decision is something of a vote of confidence in the GMD
programme, following a test in January 2013 that was intended to
remedy a failed hit-to-kill interception from late 2010 which
resulted in the US Missile Defense Agency refusing to accept any
more exo-atmospheric kill vehicles (EKVs) from January 2011
using a modified EKV known as the Capability Enhancement II
(CEII) variant. This latest trial did not involve an interception, but
was still considered a successful flight test and the programme
office now plans to make an interception later this year.
Legacy GMD interceptors will be updated to CEII standard.
According to Admiral James Winnefeld, vice chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff, when the last test failed there were a number of
Ground-Based Interceptors/EKVs in various stages of
construction. "That work was halted. When we have a successful
test, that work will resume. Those existing missiles on the
production [line] would continue and we will procure additional
ones as well," he said.
Meanwhile, Europes homegrown BMD capabilities took a key step
forward when a Eurosam Aster 30 missile successfully intercepted
a theatre ballistic missile target on 6 March, clearing the way to
GBI lifts out of Vandenberg Air Force base in California on a test launch of the EKV in January
2013. MDA: 1481041
Technical Update IHS Janes Defence Insight Report Weapons
2013 IHS April 2013 7
establishing the Franco-Italian SAMP/T system's initial operating
capability within NATO's Ballistic Missile Defence Operations
Centre (BMDOC) chain of command later in the year.
The interception was conducted by the Italian Army and French Air
Force, and marked SAMP/T's first integration with the BMDOC in
Ramstein, Germany, over a Link 16 datalink. This was the third
consecutive test against a similar threat, following trials in October
2010 and November 2011, and the second direct hit with an Aster
30B1 missile.
France and Italy are both committed to standing up a European
BMD capability by plugging SAMP/T into NATO's nascent Active
Layered Theatre Ballistic Missile Defence infrastructure, which was
stood up with an interim capability in 2012.
This is some consolation to Italy, as it is still mulling what to do
with the capability gap that has opened with the effective death of
the Medium Extended Air Defence System (MEADS) being
developed with Germany and the US. That programme continues
to limp along as a technology testbed study, with various groups
lobbying to support or kill off funding within the US Congress and
Senate for the last couple of years, but on 2 January, President
Obama signed off the defence authorisation bill for Fiscal Year
2013, notably prohibiting the DoD from funding MEADS.
However, in late March Congress overturned the decision and
decided to provide USD380 million of funding to complete testing,
marginally under the USD401 million originally expected, but
averting a shutdown necessitated by the spending cut.
Before the funding reinstatement, MEADS International, the lead
contractor for the programme, told IHS Jane's in a statement: "We
are disappointed with the restrictive language" in the legislation,
which was created "before several major milestones were met
including the successful demonstration of the system's 360
capability to detect, track, and destroy an air-breathing threat in a
flight test late last year".
A spokesperson for the company followed that up on 26 March by
saying: The process is ongoing but we are very pleased that
Congress passed the [Fiscal Year] FY13 CR Omnibus
Appropriations bill and we are awaiting the President signing it into
law. The FY13 appropriation for MEADS will allow the programme
to finish development, and leverage our past success with an
additional intercept flight test.
Poland is undergoing its own soul-searching as it narrows down
on a lower tier and missile defence solution under the Shield of
Poland programme, expected in late-March or early April,
although that is open to debate as it appears to be contrary to
Polish acquisition protocol. Nevertheless, Rafael is hotly tipped as
the favourite solution, offering the Davids Sling system with the
Stunner interceptor jointly developed with Raytheon.
Czeslaw Juzwik, Deputy Director for the Armed Forces
Department at the National Security Bureau, stated on 5 March
that "no final Polish decision on which system to procure has been
made yet".
Israel began the year riding high on the success of Rafaels Iron
Dome in defending against rockets fired into the country during its
Operation Pillar of Defence Israels Ministry of Defence (MoD)
claimed it had intercepted 80% but local press reports appeared
in March questioning the systems actual interception rates. Those
reports originated partially from Professor Theodore Postol, who
was credited with rubbishing official claims about the number of
Iraqi ballistic missiles intercepted by US Patriot air defence
batteries during the 1990-91 Gulf War.
However, the Israeli MoD officially rebuffed the claims, stating that
it "strongly rejects the unsubstantiated study, and added that the
baseless claims do not in any way reflect the performance of Iron
Dome."
Less controversially, the MoD hailed the 25 February first test flight
of the Israel Aerospace Industries/Boeing exo-atmospheric Arrow
3 as a major success, having successfully deployed its
manoeuvring kill vehicle. That flight was originally set for mid-2012,
but was delayed for so far unexplained reasons that have
apparently been solved now.
Back in Europe, the UK appears to finally be noting an interest in
the field, announcing in early March that it plans to sail one of the
Royal Navys new Type 45 destroyers to participate in a US Navy
BMD exercise for the first time.
Although the UK officially has no posture decision or requirement
for BMD and the ships currently have no engagement capability,
the ships participation will look to explore the BAE Systems
Sampson E/F-band multifunction radars potential to play a part in
the role, following on from successful land-based satellite tracking
experiments using a modified Sampson radar installed at BAE
Systems' Cowes facility in the south of England.
The Royal Netherlands Navy (RNLN) and others mounting the
Thales Nederland SMART-L/Active Phased Array Radar (APAR)
combination also received a boost towards a BMD capability in
March, when Raytheon confirmed that it had proven the ability of
its new dual-band (x- and s-band) datalink to communicate with
APAR.
Europes only indigenous BMD capability resides within Eurosams SAMP/T, known in French
service as here by the designation Mamba. SIRPA: 1451460
Technical Update IHS Janes Defence Insight Report Weapons
2013 IHS April 2013 8
Although superficially a minor achievement, it breaks the SM-3 out
of the Aegis straightjacket and opens the door to APAR-equipped
ships such as the RNLNs four De Zeven Provincien-class frigates
being able to load out with the interceptor. According to Raytheon,
the new dual-band datalink plate has been designed by Raytheon
as a straight 'drop-in' form and fit replacement for the current Plate
3A s-band hardware.
The Netherlands has no formal BMD requirement yet, but the
RNLN has been very closely involved with US trials and Thales
Nederland has undertaken extensive testing and modification of
the radars in a BMD tripwire role. I
Arrow 3 provided a rare highlight in February, conducting a successful first exo-atmospheric
test flight. IDF: 1481602
Technical Update IHS Janes Defence Insight Report Weapons
2013 IHS April 2013 9
Thermal products are hot item at IDEX
Michael J Gething, Editor of EO/IR systems for
IHS Janes C4ISR & Mission Systems
.......................................................................................................
KEY POINTS:
Increased availability of uncooled thermal detectors has
spawned a variety of thermal weapon sights from
Eastern Europe, as well as the West.
Thermal imaging clip-ons that can double as hand-held
monoculars are becoming more prevalent.
The recent IDEX exhibition, held in Abu Dhabi from 17 to
21 February 2013, did not produce headline-grabbing new
products or large procurement orders. It did serve, however, as a
launch-pad for a number of either new or previously unseen
thermal products, mostly of the uncooled variety, applied to
weapon sights or used as monoculars (which can be weapon-
mounted).
Uncooled long-wave infrared (LWIR) detector technology has
improved in quality and resolution, while becoming easier to
produce. As a result, the application of thermal imagery to infantry
weapon sights either as a complete unit or, as is increasingly
the case, as a clip-on unit ahead of an existing optical sight has
increased.
Raytheon Network Centric Systems used the show to launch a
new clip-on thermal sight, leveraging LWIR technology derived
from the companys AN/PAS-13E Thermal Weapon Sight currently
in production for the US Army. The vanadium oxide (VOx) detector
is configured with a 640x480 pixel focal plane array (FPA) on a
25 micron pixel-pitch, with a customer option to select a 320x240
pixel FPA variant. The sight, designed to fit the Picatinny mounting
rail used on many weapons, is mounted directly in front of an
existing optical sight, so there is no need to boresight the
ensemble unit. Thus, the user can benefit from increased vision
through dust, fog and smoke, by day or at night, enhancing
situational awareness.
In a similar vein, L-3 Warrior Systems/Insight promoted its
AN/PAS-13G(V)1 Light Weapon Thermal Sight, with both clip-on
and stand-alone capability. The main difference is that the LWIR
detector used here features a 17 micron pixel-pitch 640x480 pixel
FPA.
American Technologies Network (ATN) was also promoting new
thermal weapon sights in the form of its commercial ThOR-320
and ThOR-640, marketed as the TTWS (Tactical Thermal Weapon
Sight) for militaries. The ATN ThOR-320 has a 320x240 pixel FPA
on a 25 micron pixel-pitch. The ThOR-640 has a 640x480 pixel
FPA on a 17 micron pixel-pitch, with various lens options covering
50 mm and 100 mm focal lengths.
Another product from ATN was its Tactical Thermal Monocular
(TTM-14), a variant of its commercial Odin version, weighing about
350 g. The TTM-14 uses the body of the AN/PVS-14 night-vision
monocular to house an uncooled detector, with customer option of
either 320x240 or 640x480 pixel FPA.
Raytheons new Clip-on Thermal Sight leverages uncooled LWIR technology from the companys
AN/PAS-13E Thermal Weapon Sight. IHS/Michael J Gething: 1456160
The Odin thermal sight for machine guns and cannon is a variant of Sagems Sword T&D sight
in production for the French Armys FELIN programme. IHS/Michael J Gething: 1456166
The IdentifieR-60 thermal sight from Optix of Bulgaria uses a US-sourced aSi microbolometer.
Optix: 1456157
Technical Update IHS Janes Defence Insight Report C4ISR & Mission Systems
2013 IHS April 2013 13
The name ODIN also appeared on the Sagem part of the Safran
Groups stand, as a variant of the companys Sword T&D (Thermal
and Day) weapon sight, specifically configured for mounting on
heavy machine guns and cannons. Originally launched in 2010,
this variant uses a daylight CCD (charge-coupled device) and, for
night, an uncooled LWIR detector.
The BelOMA group from Belarus was showing a range of thermal
weapon sights under the generic TV/S designation. Models vary
according to the resolution of the LWIR detector used and the
focal lengths of the lens applied. Typically, the TV/S 25 model
features a 25 mm focal length lens and a 324x256 pixel FPA for
use with RPG-type weapons, while the TV/S 75M features a
75 mm focal length lens and a 640x512 pixel FPA for use with
machine guns and large-calibre sniper weapons.
The Opticoelectron Group from Bulgaria displayed its TERECON
50 thermal sight, in production for an unspecified European
country. The thermal core is an uncooled VOx microbolometer with
a 336x256 pixel FPA on a 17 micron pixel-pitch, sourced from
FLIR Systems in the United States. According to company
literature, this sight can detect human-sized targets at 1.5 km and
recognize them at 380 m. A clip-on variant, known as TEREOS 50,
is also available.
The Optix Company, also from Bulgaria, was promoting its
IdentifieR-60 thermal sight, using an uncooled amorphous silicon
(aSi) microbolometer with a 384x288 pixel FPA on a 25 micron
pixel pitch and a 60 mm focal length lens. According to company
literature, the sight can detect human-sized targets at 1.1 km and
recognise them at about 365 m. The earlier models, IdentifieR-50/-
100 (with lenses of 50 mm and 100 mm and launched in 2009)
used an aSi microbolometer with a 320x240 pixel FPA on a
30 micron pixel pitch, sourced from L-3 Communications in the
United States.
Russias Novosibirsk Instrument-Making Plant was promoting its
PT3 thermal imaging sight in three variants defined by the LWIR
detector used. All three models have an 80 mm focal length lens
and while designed for sporting use, it remains a fair assumption
that a military standard model or variant awaits in the wings.
Al Technique Corporation of Pakistan (ATCOP) revealed its TISA-1
thermal sight for small arms based on an uncooled
microbolometer with a 320x240 pixel FPA on a 45 micron pixel-
pitch. According to company literature, using a 100 mm lens it is
possible to detect a human target at 1.6 km and identify the target
at about 200 m.
Qioptiq of the United Kingdom was promoting its Dragon range of
thermal sights, with five different variants customised for several
applications, including sniper use. The Dragon-S uses an uncooled
detector with a 320x240 pixel FPA on a 25 micron pixel pitch. Also
on display was the companys Saker fused vision weapon sight.
This combines an image intensifier (standard 18 mm CMOS type)
with an uncooled LWIR thermal imaging sensor into a single sight
unit. According to Qioptiq, the thermal core can be sourced from
one of several suppliers, covering arrays with a 25 micrometre (m)
pixel-pitch (usually indicating a 320x240 pixel array) or 17 m pixel-
pitch (allowing a 640x480 array).
As noted earlier, thermal monoculars can also be weapon-
mounted fairly easily. UK company, Pyser-SGI showcased what it
describes as the smallest and lightest thermal monocular to date.
Designated PNP-MTHD, the core of the monocular is a ULIS
uncooled long-wave infrared 640x480 pixel aSi microbolometer
with an advanced 852x600 pixel Super Video Graphics Array
monochrome display which, with a 25 mm focal length lens,
weighs 307 g.
The PNP-MTHD is powered by a pair of CR123 lithium batteries,
which provide up to seven hours continuous operation. According
The TERECON 50 thermal sight from Bulgarias Opticoelectron Group is in production for an
unspecified European country. IHS/Michael J. Gething: 1456161
Shown at IDEX on a head mount (with a weapon clip-on variant in the offing), at just 307g, the
PNP-MTHD thermal monocular from Pyser-SGI is claimed to be the smallest and lightest
device of its genre. IHS/Michael J. Gething: 1482416
Technical Update IHS Janes Defence Insight Report C4ISR & Mission Systems
2013 IHS April 2013 14
to Pyser-SGI, it has a detection distance of up to 920 m for a
human target (without electronic zoom). Initially promoted as a
hand-held night-vision device suitable for helmet mounting, the
company will launch a clip-on weapon sight variant in the July-
August 2013 timeframe. I
Technical Update IHS Janes Defence Insight Report C4ISR & Mission Systems
2013 IHS April 2013 15
Ships from the desert: how ADSB is
changing its course
Richard Scott, IHS Janes Naval Consultant
.......................................................................................................
KEY POINTS:
Abu Dhabi Ship Building is backing away from its
ambitious plans to take on the European shipyards at
their own game
After huge investment, the yard is now looking to
become a repair and maintenance hub when its current
production winds down next year
It has become an article of faith for many industrialising nations to
aspire to build naval vessels in domestic construction facilities.
Similarly, the establishment of an indigenous engineering and
manufacture capability, aligned to transfer of technology and skills,
is frequently a mandatory offset for foreign shipbuilders seeking to
capture business in these emerging markets. Accordingly, they
must accept that the collaborations of today may, in time, produce
the competition of tomorrow.
There are a number of arguments put forward for establishing an
indigenous capability for naval construction. These include the
direct and indirect economic multipliers that accrue from building
up local industrial capability, the greater self-reliance that comes
from a sovereign capability to design, build and integrate naval
ships, the economies achieved by utilising lower cost labour
resource, the opportunity to grow the domestic skills base and
accredit the indigenous supply base, and the possibility of creating
an export business.
Some governments have established a sovereign naval
shipbuilding capability within government-owned facilities (such as
a naval dockyard) under state sponsorship. Others have sought to
leverage an extant commercial shipbuilding sector (sometimes
through joint ventures with overseas partners) while there are some
that have started a business essentially from scratch.
Abu Dhabi Ship Building (ADSB) falls into the latter category. It was
established in 1996 on the site of a small and very basic ship
repair yard lying alongside the Mussafah channel. It had few
trained staff, no computers or systems in place, and no
qualifications to undertake military work.
The transformation of the yard over the past 17 years into a
modern, efficient and high quality ship construction facility
claimed to be the only shipyard in the Gulf region capable of
building, refitting, repairing and upgrading complex naval warships
mirrors the emergence of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a
significant financial and commercial power in the Gulf region. While
rapid economic growth and associated infrastructure development
has been underpinned by oil revenues, continued diversification is
seeing an increasing contribution from sectors such as banking
and finance, tourism, transhipment and free trade, high technology
and services.
Commensurate with this growing economic prosperity has been
the rise of the UAE as a major military power in the region.
Accordingly it has in parallel sought to nurture its indigenous
military industrial capability through a broadly-based programme of
defence offsets, joint ventures and technology transfer. ADSB is
one product of this strategy, having been established under the
aegis of the UAE Offsets Group to support local industrialisation,
create value for the local economy, grow technical and operational
self-reliance, and pursue naval and commercial shipbuilding and
ship-repair opportunities in other Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC)
states.
The business strategy adopted by ADSB was to combine
competitive labour rates (its blue collar expatriate workforce is
largely drawn from the Indian sub-continent and the Philippines)
and modern plant and facilities with design pedigree and
technology transfer provided by overseas strategic partners (the
latter including CMN, Swede Ship and Yonca Onuk). Its new
shipyard was opened in 2002, and has been further developed
into a world-class facility able to construct a wide range of
military, paramilitary and commercial vessels in steel, aluminium
and composite materials.
ADSB has engaged in a wide range of naval new-build and refit
projects. For example, it is currently building a second batch of
First of an orphaned breed: the UAEs Baynunah class was to have been a flagship building
programme showing the rest of the Persian Gulf how to run a major naval construction
programme, but ADSB has now withdrawn from the construction field.
IHS/Patrick Allen: 1457970
Technical Update IHS Janes Defence Insight Report Sea Platforms
2013 IHS April 2013 8
Ghannatha patrol boats (fitted with anti-ship missiles) for the UAE
Naval Forces, and completing the local production of 22 MRTP16
fast interceptor boats for the Critical Infrastructure and Coastal
Protection Authority (CICPA). In February 2013 it announced its
selection to built new landing craft for Kuwait, following on from
earlier orders for landing craft from Bahrain and Oman.
However, it is the six-ship Baynunah corvette programme that
stands out as the UAEs flagship naval programme. Frequently
described as the Gulf regions largest and most ambitious naval
shipbuilding project, it was intended as a pole for ADSB to further
develop an indigenous capability in naval shipbuilding and systems
integration, and a springboard from which to take on European
competition for warship sales to GCC neighbours.
To further stimulate growth, develop expertise and grow its
position in strategic markets, ADSB also formed two joint venture
businesses: Abu Dhabi Systems Integration set up with Selex
Sistemi Integrati (now Selex ES) in 2005 was conceived as a
vehicle to expand into system integration and services; and Gulf
Logistics and Naval Support (GLNS) a joint venture with BAE
Systems was formed in 2009 to offer through-life naval support
services to customers across the Middle East region.
In many respects, ADSB appears to be the model example of
how offset provision and technology transfer can be used to build
a naval industrial base as a national asset in both an economic
and strategic sense. However, the recent unveiling of a new
strategic direction for the company particularly with regard to the
delivery of complex warships demonstrates that new players are
by no means immune to the corporate challenges faced by old
world shipbuilders in Europe and elsewhere, nor the realities of
structural change in both regional and global economic
circumstances.
ADSB achieved revenues exceeding AED1 billion in 2011 (the last
year for which full accounts are available). However, the
companys recent financial performance has been disappointing,
with a loss of AED27.6 million (USD 7.5 million) recorded in the first
three quarters of 2012. The previous chief executive, Mohamad
Salem Al Junaibi, departed his position at the end of last year.
The costs and risks associated with the delivery of the Baynunah
programme a highly complex construction and systems
integration task the like of which has never been attempted in the
UAE before have also become clearer in the last 18 months.
Accurate cost forecasting proved difficult in the early years of the
programme for lack of experience and comparative benchmarks,
and customer-directed design changes also impacted on cost and
schedule. As the programme has matured, and ships reach
completion, so cost forecasting as been revised to more
accurately reflect cost to completion.
Recognising changes in the dynamics of the marketplace
(particularly the future naval requirements of the UAE), and the
drivers of the Abu Dhabi Vision 2030 plan (with regard to both
business strategy and increased employment opportunities for
UAE nationals), ADSB began a far-reaching review of operations
and strategy in 2011. This continued through 2012, with the board
of directors and senior management developing medium-term (out
to 2017) and long-term (out to 2022) plans to ensure continued
growth.
The results of this exercise, which became public in February
2013, offer some intriguing pointers. Announcing that the
company had recognised the requirement to re-align its direction
and strategy, chief executive officer Ian Pike said the business
would steer away from the in-country build of complex warships,
and instead focus on high value activities across the four areas of
naval ships, small boat construction, services and combat system
integration.
This shift towards higher value activities (and a commensurate up-
skilling) is also linked to ambitious targets for Emiratisation.
ADSBs objective is to increase the number of UAE nationals in the
workforce from just over 70 today (less than 5% out of a total
workforce of about 1,600) to 30% of the workforce by 2017.
Although ADSB wants to maintain a central role in major UAE naval
shipbuilding programmes, the company has come to the
conclusion that the low margins associated with construction
activities are not coherent with its objectives of focusing more on
higher value added activities. Furthermore, the tempo of
recapitalisation across the UAE Naval Forces and other agencies
(such as CICPA) is seen to have passed its peak; the Baynunah
and Ghannatha programmes will both be complete by the end of
2014.
Instead, ADSB will pursue a different make/buy model that will
redefine the role and responsibility of ADSB and subcontractors
through the supply chain, according to Pike. Under this new
model, ADSB will retain prime contract and programme
management responsibility, undertake major equipment and
weapon procurements, and lead on installation, test, trials and
acceptance. However, platform design, construction, test and
trials will now typically be delegated to a subcontractor offshore,
with the vessel then sailed to the UAE for final fit out, integration
and acceptance.
Conversely, ADSB plans to invest in developing its small boat
business, establishing its own in-house design capability, and
looking to pursue markets outside the GCC region. This will be
used as a cornerstone to achieve employment opportunities for
Emiratis, said Pike. We recognise that a substantial market exists
inside and outside the GCC region for small, high-speed
naval/military vessels.
Baynunah in build at ADSB. IHS/Patrick Allen: 1400177
Technical Update IHS Janes Defence Insight Report Sea Platforms
2013 IHS April 2013 9
The third pillar of ADSBs strategy is the creation of a services
division that will focus on three revenue streams: naval/military ship
repairs; commercial MRO projects; and through-life capability
management. Our business plan specifically targets UAE and the
GCC region, added Pike, adding that visiting ships or ships on
secondment from outside the region from non-GCC navies are
part of the territorial plan.
ADSB had previously looked to capture regional through-life
warship support business through the GLNS joint venture (owned
70% by ADSB and 30% by BAE Systems). However, this
partnership did not gel as planned and was dissolved in 2012;
instead ADSB is now understood to have turned to Babcock in the
UK for strategic advice on a new business stream for warship
lifecycle support.
Through-life capability management will be a new business
stream, said Pike. ADSB is working closely with UAE GHQ
[General Headquarters] to ensure future services support is
provided. Bear in mind that the UAE Navy alone is increasing its
fleet size by over 30 vessels by 2015, eight of which are over 50 m
in length. Significant resources and infrastructure improvements
have already been undertaken by the company to ensure the
success of the services division.
The fourth pillar of the business will be combat systems integration
activities. This will build on our existing Abu Dhabi Systems
Integration joint venture [with Selex ES], said Pike. We see
significant new opportunities, and are looking to expand into the
GCC by offering integration management services.
This new operating model appears very much at odds with the
original aims of ADSB and the UAE government. Yet it resonates
when seen in the context of the UAEs future economic
development strategy, signalling an accelerated shift away from
comparatively low value-added industrial activities towards a
broadly-based specialist engineering, systems integration and
services business offering more attractive opportunities for revenue
growth and Emirati employment. I
The Ghannatha patrol boat project will be completed by the end of next year.
IHS/Patrick Allen: 1451402
Technical Update IHS Janes Defence Insight Report Sea Platforms
2013 IHS April 2013 10
US Army seeking approval for new scout helo programme
Caitlin Lee, IHS Janes Defence Weekly, 18 December 2012
c What's the story?
This exclusive reveals that the US Army would ask the Pentagon's top equipment buyer to open a full-up competition to
buy a highly-anticipated replacement for the Kiowa Warrior Armed Scout Helicopter.
c Why come to IHS Jane's?
IHS Janes has been closely following the Armed Scout programme and its many predecessors. Through well-placed
sources, we were able to break the news that the army planned to seek a new helicopter programme, instead of a less
pricey option, almost a month before the army announced its plans.
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UK to consider future Apache options
Gareth Jennings, IHS Janes Defence Weekly, 4 December 2012
c What's the story?
The UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) is to launch a capability sustainment programme for its fleet of AgustaWestland-
Boeing WAH-64D Apache AH.1 attack helicopters.
c Why come to IHS Jane's?
This balanced and considered story was borne on the back of UK tabloid hysteria as to the possibility that the
government might scrap the Apache attack helicopter fleet once current operations in Afghanistan end. Whereas other
media sensationalised the government ministers announcement that the future of the fleet is being considered, IHS
Janes Defence Weekly looked at the issues and provided an exclusive and in-depth analysis of the future prospects for
the Apache force, explaining how the MoD has found itself in the position it does and what it might do in the long-term
to save the capability.
Go to ihs.com/janes
UK considers ISR role for Reaper in Afghanistan post 2014
Gareth Jennings, IHS Janes Defence Weekly, 28 December 2012
c What's the story?
The United Kingdom may retain the use of its General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc (GA-ASI) MQ-9 Reaper
unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in an intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capacity over Afghanistan after
combat operations cease at the end of 2014.
c Why come to IHS Jane's?
In response to exaggerated press coverage that the UK is to axe its Reaper UAVs once operations in Afghanistan end in
2014, IHS approached the MoD to ascertain precisely what the story was. Having discovered that the reality of the
situation was far less black and white and far less sensationalists than had been presented in other media outlets, the
author revealed the facts in an accurate and concise manner, and followed this up with an in-depth comment/analysis
as to how this story relates to the UKs long-term aims and objectives with regard its Reaper and UAV force.
Go to ihs.com/janes
News Digest IHS Janes Defence Insight Report Air Platforms
2013 IHS March 2013 15
Pacific Operational S&T Conference and Exhibition 2013: Comms,
weapons, and ISR top PACOM's shortlist
Grace Jean, IHS Jane's Defence Weekly, 7 March 2013
c What's the story?
With the Obama administrations focus on the Pacific and worries over Chinas expanding military and disputed claims
to resource rich waters off the coast of numerous Asian nations, the US military is in need of technology to prevent
disruption to communications during a conflict as well as long-endurance ISR assets.
c Why come to IHS Jane's?
The article highlights the demand from top PACOM officials for assured internal and external communications via
SATCOM as well as the ability to provide COCOMS with situational awareness at an affordable price. Having the ability
for persistent surveillance and real-time communications will be vital as the United States moves naval, marine corps
and army assets to the western Pacific.
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Budget stalemate: US military seeks improved UAS capabilities despite
financial squeeze
Geoff Fein and Grace Jean, IHS Janes International Defence Review, 6 March 2013
c What's the story?
Military use of unmanned aircraft, as well as the cost to buy and sustain them, has grown considerably over the past
decade. With more advanced sensors, communications systems and EO/IR capability being developed, and the ability
to deliver supplies and more challenging threat environments on the horizon, the importance of UAS for the military is
increasing. The US Air Force, US Army and US Navy/Marine Corps are all looking for systems that can remain on
station longer, have increased payload capability, and improved ruggedness while also being much more affordable.
However, current budget issues in the US Congress are raising concerns that future UAS acquisitions could be severely
impacted.
c Why come to IHS Jane's?
The article highlights concerns raised by US military officials speaking at the annual AUVSI unmanned systems
programme update. Although the officials thanked industry for the work being done to develop improved platforms and
payloads, the officials warned company representatives that they must pay attention to the services requirements. The
USAF, US Army and USN will likely no longer be able to buy unlimited quantities of systems and components. Even
current acquisition plans for future capabilities are unknown. As the army Colonel overseeing UAS said, although UAS
have changed the way the military fights, he cant say whether that capability is affordable now.
Go to ihs.com/janes
News Digest IHS Janes Defence Insight Report C4ISR & Mission Systems
2013 IHS April 2013 19
FOBs: maintaining the 'take home' from Iraq and Afghanistan
Francis Tusa, IHS Janes International Defence Review, 8 February 2013
c What's the story?
This feature explores, among other lessons from maintaining bases in Iraq and Afghanistan, the crucial issue of
addressing the cost of fuel in theatre both from a financial standpoint and the risk to those transporting it because the
convoys make an easy set of targets.
c Why come to IHS Jane's?
The insightful reporting and analysis in this piece delves into the Forward Operating Base (FOB) energy issue as a
common area of research and development for all armies. Our report finds a shared theme among the various
international efforts to explore more energy efficient FOBs: energy could be better managed if there was some form of
generic framework for all energy systems to plug into this would be more than just a power grid, although that could
well be a part of it.
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US Army clean energy projects likely to survive spending cuts
Eric Lindeman, IHS Janes Defence Weekly, 6 February 2013
c What's the story?
Most of the US Armys renewable energy projects at US military bases including wind, solar, geothermal, biomass,
smart minigrids and microgrids, and other technologies that promote efficiency are expected to weather the current
budget storm because they are being developed by private-sector partners that fund the upfront costs of projects.
c Why come to IHS Jane's?
IHS Janes has closely followed the various budget issues affecting Pentagon funding as well as the energy projects that
the department is undertaking, which have been subject to increased scrutiny as budgets tighten. Still, Lindemans
analysis of the Department of Defenses statements and postures reports that certain energy projects specifically
those with upfront costs funded through Power Purchase Agreements, Energy Savings Performance Contracts, Utilities
Energy Savings Contracts, and Enhanced Use Leasing are somewhat insulated from defence spending cuts.
Go to ihs.com/janes
Roll out the dragon: China expands wheeled armour lines
Christopher F Foss, IHS Janes International Defence Review, 10 January 2013
c What's the story?
This in-depth feature examines the trends in the Chinese military vehicle sector to find that armour development is
driving growth toward 88 armoured vehicles, many of which are now being offered on the export market.
c Why come to IHS Jane's?
China's armoured vehicle industry has an enviable position as its primary customer is the world's largest army. As such,
the industry has soared out of its roots in reverse engineering or licence-building foreign designs, and today offers an
armoured fighting vehicle for every imaginable niche requirement. IHS Janes vehicles guru Christopher Foss is well-
placed to explore the products of the often closed Chinese military industry, and uncover the interesting developments
that would be missed by less experienced eyes.
Go to ihs.com/janes
News Digest IHS Janes Defence Insight Report Land Platforms
2013 IHS March 2013 21
Asymmetric apparition: Ghost attack craft concept takes the fight to
the swarm
Richard Scott, IHS Janes International Defence Review, 6 February 2013
c What's the story?
A US company has begun trialling an innovative new fast naval vessel design.
c Why come to IHS Jane's?
This story was the result of a private briefing at the US Navys annual Surface Navy Association conference, where IHS
Janes Naval Consultant Richard Scott sniffed out key details of the Ghost design, rumours of which had emerged on
internet forums and message boards. The design is a radical break with traditional naval architecture and promises a
host of performance enhancements, including stable ride, high speed, low RCS and a small storage footprint.
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Coming on stream: Swedens stealth corvettes come of age
Kate Tringham, IHS Janes Navy International, 26 February 2013
c What's the story?
Swedens ambitious Visby-class corvette programme has been running since 1996 and the first ships are finally entering
service proper.
c Why come to IHS Jane's?
This profile explores the reasons for the programmes delays and more importantly how the Swedish Navy has got it
back on track.
Go to ihs.com/janes
Gulf guerrillas
Jeremy Binnie, IHS Janes Defence Weekly, 4 February 2013
c What's the story?
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps naval wing is widely regarded to be the biggest potential threat in its home
waters.
c Why come to IHS Jane's?
This is a timely profile of a shadowy force that has been building its asymmetric doctrine for the last 25 years in an area
of global strategic interest.
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News Digest IHS Janes Defence Insight Report Sea Platforms
2013 IHS April 2013 11
XM25 pulled from theatre trial due to 'malfunction'
Daniel Wasserbly, IHS Janes International Defence Review, 6 March 2013
c What's the story?
ATKs much vaunted XM25 guided weapon system has been withdrawn not just from service but from the whole
Afghan theatre after a grenade prematurely detonated, destroying the weapon and injuring the operator.
c Why come to IHS Jane's?
IDR has closely followed the development of the XM25, which has been credited with breaking the stalemate that often
occurs immediately after US infantry makes contact with Taliban foot soldiers, while the US calls in supporting fires. In
one way, this malfunction is just the latest stage in a development programme that has hitherto exceeded expectations,
but it also marks an important twist in operator belief in the system.
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Ukraine shows off new AGL
Richard Jones, IHS Janes International Defence Review, 19 February 2013
c What's the story?
Ukrainian industry has developed a new automatic grenade launcher for vehicles and dismounts.
c Why come to IHS Jane's?
The Editor of IHS Janes Weapons: Infantry noticed this new AGL stashed away at the latest IDEX arms fair and learned
that it is currently being studied for the home market in Ukraine. It fires all natures of 4053 mm grenades and if it is
adopted by Ukraine, will mark an important shift towards commonality with NATO forces.
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KAI shows off 'loitering' precision munition
Nick Brown, IHS Janes International Defence Review, 18 February 2013
c What's the story?
Korean Aerospace International displayed its new Killer developmental loitering munition at the IDEX exhibition in Abu
Dhabi.
c Why come to IHS Jane's?
There are a number of unusual technical innovations featuring on this weapon not least its quiet electrical propulsion
system but one of the really interesting aspects of its development is that KAI is working it up as a homegrown system
to tackle North Korean coastal artillery hidden away in difficult locations. That particular challenge was supposed to
have been solved with an order for Rafaels Spike NLOS a couple of years ago, but it appears that the local industry
may have an inside track suggesting that the non-delivery of those systems may be more than the technical reasons
announced.
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News Digest IHS Janes Defence Insight Report Weapons
2013 IHS April 2013 12

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