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C.40
FCRPS BiOp Issue Paper
Draft 8.5.2009

Action Immediate Additional Actions:

Life-cycle modeling support to BiOp contingency planning

Lead Agency NOAA

Description: Current activities: The 2008 BiOp used a combination of life-cycle modeling
• Current and passage modeling (COMPASS) to estimate how changes in life-stage
activities specific survival affect long term viability metrics (productivity, mean abundance
• Proposed and probability of quasi-extinction). These analyses adequately expressed
enhanceme population viability and effects of hydropower system operations and
nts configurations on smolt survival and alternative ocean/climatic scenarios.

Proposed enhancements: However, as pointed out by Dr. Lubchenco’s

workshop with independent scientists, the existing models need to be expanded
further to explicitly evaluate a variety of other factors, described below. In
addition, the expanded models can be developed to estimate the likelihood that
early-warning and contingency triggers might be met under alternative scenarios
of climate change and management strategies.

This will be accomplished in two ways: First, we will update the Interior
Columbia Technical Recovery Teams stochastic life-cycle models to incorporate
most recent population data (abundance of adults and juveniles, stage-specific
survival, etc.) and expand the number of populations considered where possible
(Snake River spring/summer Chinook; Snake River steelhead; Upper Columbia
spring Chinook; and Mid Columbia steelhead). We will also explore data
availability and, to the extent possible, develop data-supported models for
populations within ESUs that have not been modeled to date (Snake River fall
Chinook; Snake River sockeye; and Upper Columbia steelhead). Second, we will
expand the current models to address:

• Climate –sensitivity of ESUs. Analyzing the potential effects of climate

change is a key element to the FCRPS Biological Opinion’s Adaptive
Management Plan (Plan). Ultimately, as part of the spatially explicit
modeling discussed below, we want to identify which ESUs are most
sensitive to climate variability and which restoration actions are most resilient
to climate change. Results will be used to guide BiOp implementation
decisions and cost effectiveness.

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• Climate - adaptive management. We will evaluate effects of climate

variability and change in the near (1-2 years) term by incorporating predicted
climate conditions, such as freshwater conditions (e.g., snow pack), mainstem
conditions (flow and temperature), and ocean conditions on survival through
the life cycle. Outputs will inform the early warning component of the Plan,
as will our existing monitoring of marine ecosystem productivity each year.
Longer term effects of climate will be modeled based on model studies of
biological responses to projected changes in freshwater and marine climate
conditions from various scenarios (IPCC, NOAA, UW-CIG). Outputs will be
considered qualitatively in the context of the running 4-year averages in adult
escapement “triggers” in the Plan and used to further judge trend patterns.

• Hatchery effects. A critical uncertainty is the effect of hatchery spawners on

the success of wild spawners, the impact of hatchery releases on wild
populations, and density-dependent effects of hatchery production on the
productivity of wild fish. Each of issues has been evaluated to some degree,
and we will model the effects of hatcheries on populations under various
ocean productivity regimes and climate scenarios. This will provide a
sensitivity analysis of the potential role of hatchery production in recovery
and to possibly identify alternative production release timing strategies that
increase survival of wild fish and hatchery fish.

• Habitat actions and monitoring. The potential effects of habitat

improvements on population viability metrics will be incorporated into the
life cycle models as the information becomes available from Intensively
Monitored Watersheds (IMW) and RME activities. Results of analyses of
key assumptions on how fish populations respond to habitat alterations will
be used to guide future RME and IMW activities, and used qualitatively as
part of the 2-year early warning and 4-year trigger components of the Plan.
The potential biological benefits and impacts of breaching the four lower
Snake River dams will be evaluated.

• Spatially explicit modeling. We will develop spatially-explicit population Formatted: Indent: Left: 0 pt

models (not necessarily life-cycle models) to examine two general questions:

1) Are there spatial patterns in population response? and 2) What is the
importance of source-sink dynamics? Regarding question 1, we will examine
a number of data sets (e.g., recruits per spawner and life-stage specific
Deleted: As stated above, we will
survival) to assess the degree of geographic concordance among populations. expand the number of populations and
ESUs considered in Leslie matrix models,
Establishing spatial patterns in how populations co-vary will enhance our as available data allow.
ability to identify how populations respond to factors such as variability in Deleted: This comparative approach
freshwater and marine productivity, differing levels of habitat restoration will allow us

across watersheds, and influences of total hatchery composition on the wild Deleted: more fully
Deleted: similarities and differences in

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component of the ESU. Ultimately, this type of information will help

develop indicators of freshwater climate conditions for forecasting.
Regarding question 2, we will develop spatially explicit meta-population
models of MPGs. Although the magnitude of migration among populations
(i.e., straying) is largely unknown, simulations of spatially explicit meta-
population processes can provide insights on the connectedness among
populations and can help to identify populations that are more vulnerable due
to spatial isolation. Taken together, these modeling efforts can provide
estimates of risk at the MPG- or ESU-level, can inform the spatial diversity
metric of VSP and thus help prioritize population-based mitigation actions. Deleted: ¶

• Interspecific interactions. We will evaluate the availability of data on the

effects of other native species (competitors, piscivorous and avian predators,
and prey), invasive species (competitors, predators, or pathogens), or other
salmon populations (i.e., tradeoffs among ESUs) on target salmon
populations. If sufficient data exist, we will evaluate the potential effects
through food web or bioenergetics models, or other analyses, to estimate the
magnitude of their impact.
Formatted: Indent: Left: 18 pt

• Modeling Uncertainty. All the underlying relationships of the life cycle Formatted: Bullets and Numbering

models contain some degree of uncertainty. If this uncertainty can be

characterized statistically, then this uncertainty will be incorporated explicitly
into the stochastic models. If it is not possible to explicitly characterize the
uncertainty about a relationship, such as the case with some of the habitat
actions, then we will examine population response through sensitivity
analyses across plausible ranges.
Potential Through sensitivity analyses and other diagnostic approaches, the life-cycle modeling
Magnitude of will help to identify particular life stages that may be a bottleneck for specific
Biological
populations to guide directed mitigation actions.
Benefit
Estimated Cost $ 400 K/year
Current Background: See current activities section, above.
Situation:
• Background Involved parties and agreements: A regional, collaborative process similar to that
• Involved used by the TRTs and to develop the COMPASS model will be used, which incorporated
parties and
agreements transparent and independent scientific peer review as a foundational component.
• Implementa
tion Implementation potential: Our ability to build the models for new ESUs and expand
potential/ the existing and new models to address critical scientific uncertainties will vary
do- ability depending on the amount and quality of information being incorporated. Model
development and scenario analysis will continue to evolve and expand as new

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information is found or gathered and incorporated into the models. Model development
is a process and model outputs will be incorporated into management decisions as they
become available. Over time, outputs will be bounded by tighter confidence intervals
and less uncertainty.

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