Park City Real Estate Statistics

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Good Morning First To Knowers

Todays topics:
Demand: Nationally sales have slowed, true for GPC?
Supply, absorption rates and areas
Cash Sales: nationally cash sales down, true for GPC?
Distressed and Foreclosure Sales, how do we compare?
Pricing Trends: Deceleration nationally, GPC?
Market Segmentation and sample neighborhoods
Summary and dialogue
Question: Demand remains steady and inventory is
diminished, what explains our median prices?
A few ground rules and requests.

Demand: Pending Sales

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

NAR announced (9/29/14) the pended home sales index fell

1.0% in August from July to 104.7 and it is 2.2% below
August 2013. However, it remains at the second-highest
level since last August.
Dr. Yun sees a 5% increase in sales for the 4th quarter of
last year given increased job creation, increased inventory
giving buyers more choices, and low interest rates.
GPC PHSI for September increased 1.3% from a August to
107.7. Pended sales for the first three quarters are down
5% from 2013.

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Demand: Pending Sales

NAR and GPC Pending Home Sales Index
Thru 9/2014

140

Source: NAR, PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

130

BetweenJan2011andSept2014,
theGPCPHSIhasincreased8%annually.

120

110

100

90

80

National PHSI

Park City PHSI

14
nJa

13
nJa

12
nJa

11
Ja

n-

10
nJa

09
nJa

08
Ja

n-

07
nJa

06
nJa

05
nJa

04
nJa

03
nJa

02
nJa

Ja

n-

01

70

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n
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Ju -07
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Ja -0
n- 7
A 0
pr 8
Ju -08
O l-08
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Ja -0
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A 0
pr 9
Ju -09
O l-09
c
Ja t-0
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A 1
pr 0
Ju -10
O l-10
ct
Ja -10
n
A -11
pr
Ju -11
O l-11
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Ja -1
n- 1
A 1
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Ju -12
O l-12
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Ja -1
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A 1
pr 3
Ju -13
O l-13
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Ja -1
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A 1
pr 4
Ju -14
l-1
4

# of transactions

Demand:PendingSales

200

180

160

Land
SFR
Condos

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Pended Sales: Greater Park City

As of 9/2014

Source: PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

SeptemberwasthehighestMonthof
pendedsalesmonthsinceSeptember2006!

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Demand:PendingSales
Pended Sales: Greater Park City
3rd Quarter Comparison
(as of 9/2014)

500

Source: PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

450

12%
PendedsalesforQ32014are
downtwounitsfromQ32013,
Butup27%fromQ32012.

350

37%

300
250
200
150
100

51%
50

VL

SF

201
4
Q3

2
201

201
Q3

Q3
CO

Q3

201
1

0
Q3

201

9
200
Q3

8
200
Q3

7
200
Q3

200

Q3

# of Transactions

400

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Demand:PendingSales
Pended Sales: Greater Park City
1st 9 Months Comparison

1800

(as of 9/2014)
Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

1600

PendedsalesthroughQ314are
down5%fromQ32013,
up16%fromQ32012.

1200

16%

1000

34%

800
600
400

50%
200

VL

SF

CO

4
201

3
201

2
201

201
1

0
201

9
200

8
200

7
200

200

# of Transactions

1400

Demand:Exis1ngSales

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

NAR announced (9/22/14) existing sales fell 1.8% in August to a

SAAR of 5.05M; this is 5.3% below the level in August 2013.
Dr Yun said that sales activity remains stronger than earlier
in the year, but fell last month as investors stepped way.
There was a marked decline in all-cash sales from
investors.
GPC had a more mixed result: the three month rolling
average increased 3.4% in August over July and increased
another 4.3% in September to 138 transactions. However,
the September 2014 three month rolling average is down
12% from September 2013.

Demand: Existing Sales

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

NAR and PC # of Transactions

7,500,000

As of 9/2014
Source NAR, PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

InteresMngtonote:
GPCisjustslightlyaboveJanuary2000
WhileNARisjustslightlylower.

7,000,000

350.0

300.0

250.0

6,000,000

200.0

5,500,000

150.0

5,000,000

100.0

4,500,000

50.0

4,000,000

0.0

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6,500,000

NAR SAAR Left Axis

PC 3 Mo Rolling Avg Right Axis

Demand:Exis1ngSales

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Closed Sales: Greater Park City

Number of Transactions
(as of 9/2014)
Source: PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

# of Transactions

3rdQtrlowergivenlastquarters
lownumberofpendingsales

200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20

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-0
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Jul 7
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Jan 7
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Ap 8
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-1
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-1
Oc 1
t-11
Jan
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-13
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-1
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CO

SF

VL

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Demand:Exis1ngSales
Closed Sales: Greater Park City
3rd Quarter Comparison
(as of 9/2014)

600

Source: PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

Closed sales for Q3 2014 are

12% below Q3 2013 and
20% above Q3 2012
Sales of Single Family down 16.8%

400

15%

300

38%
200

100

47%

Condo

Sf

VL

14
Q3

13
Q3

12
Q3

11
Q3

10
Q3

09
Q3

08
Q3

07
Q3

06

Q2

# of Transactions

500

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Demand:Exis1ngSales
Closed Sales: Greater Park City
1st 9 Months Comparison

1600

(as of 9/2014)
Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

1400

Recall as of Q2 number of sales were

down about 3%.
Closed sales through Q3 of 2014 are
down 6% from Q3 2013
up 14.5% from Q3 2012
Single Family down 16.5% from 2013

1000

18%
800

34%
600
400

48%

200

Condo

Sf

VL

14
Q3

13
Q3

12
Q3

11
Q3

10
Q3

09
Q3

08
Q3

07
Q3

06

Q3

Number of Transactions

1200

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSRID413601

Demand:Exis1ngSales
Greater Park City Year to Date Volume
1st 9 Months Comparison
(as of 9/2014)
Source: PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

1,400,000,000

Volume for Q3 2014 is

2.4% above Q3 2013
32.6% above Q3 2012

1,000,000,000

11%
800,000,000

600,000,000

54%
400,000,000

35%

200,000,000

Condo

SF

VL

201
4
Q3

210
3
Q3

201
2
Q3

201
1
Q3

201
0
Q3

200
9
Q3

200
8
Q3

200
7
Q3

200
6

Q3

Voume Sold

1,200,000,000

Demand: Existing Sales

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

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Number of sales back to 9/2002

Volume back to 12/2004

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Supply: Inventory

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

NAR: Total housing inventory at the end of August declined

1.7% to 2.3M existing home, which represents a 5.5 month
supply at the current sales pace. Unsold inventory is 4.5%
above a year ago, when there 2.21M existing homes for
sale.
GPC total listings October 1st was 1,198; this is down
7.5% from September and is a 3% increase over October
2013. The absorption rate is 8.6 months for all properties
and 7.1 months for condos and single family.

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Supply:Inventory
Active Listings - Greater Park City
2500

(Inventory as of first of the month)

October 1, 2014
Source: PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

1,198LisMngs10/1/14
Supplyremainsdiminished

# of listings

2000

1500

1000

31%
35%

500

34%
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RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Supply
Absorption Rate (ex lots): Greater Park City
October 2014

65

(Sales: 3 mo rolling avg.)

Source: PC MLS/ Compiled by Rick Klein

60
55
50

AbsorpMonrateat7.1months
AverageabsorpMonratebetween
1/10to10/14is12.5months

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Supply: Q3 14 Absorption Rate Per Area

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RickJ.Klein
4356479055
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Cash Sales

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

NAR:cashsaleswere23%oftransacFonsinAugust,compared
with29%inJuly2014andrepresenFngthelowestlevelsince
sinceDecember2009(22%).Investors,whoaccountformost
cashsales,purchased12%ofhomesinAugustdownfrom15%
lastmonth.
So,withanyluckwillthepercentageofcashnancingdeclinein
ParkCity?Unfortunately,thiswasnotthecase.

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Cash Sales
Cash Sales History
Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

60%

50%

% of Cash Sales

50%

48%

47%

46%

47%

2013

Q114

Q2 14

Q3 14

45%

40%

30%

48%

50%

35%
26%

20%

10%

0%
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Cash Sales

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Cash Sales
Cash Financing History for GPC
by Areas
Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

70%

59%

60%

% of Cash Sales

50%

57%

44%

42%

55%
46%
42%

40%
30%
20%

31%

29%
20%

10%
0%
2006

2008

2010
Areas 1-9

2012
Areas 10-23

YTD 14

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Mortgage Rates
RatesquotedforapurchasetransacFon(asof10/17/14)

Conforming

30 Year Fixed

7/1 ARM

4.125%

3.125%

4.209% APR

3.002% APR

High Balance

4.125%

3.500%

($600,300)

4.167% APR

3.135% APR

4.000%

3.000%

Non-Conforming

4.028% APR

2.890% APR

Conforming 15 year fixed: 3.375%; APR 3.521%

Distressed Sales

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

NAR: Distressed homes accounted for 8% of sales in

August - 6% REO and 2% short sales; they were 15% in
June 2013. Foreclosures sold for 14% below market value
and short sales were discounted 10%
GPC distressed properties accounted for 3.3% of Q3 2014
sales down from 5.4% Q3 2013. Distressed sales were
discounted less than 2% from market value.

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSRID413601

DistressedSales

Summit County Distressed Sales and Listings Q3 2014

All Property types excluding fractionals

3.50%

!"#$%&'()*+,!-*"./01&2(34(50%6(71&08(

3.00%

% of transactions

2.50%

1.23%

Distressed sales are up 0.5% from

Q2 2014 but otherwise lowest level
since we began tracking in 2011

2.00%
1.50%
1.00%

2.05%
0.33%

0.50%
0.65%
0.00%

% Sold

% Listed
Short Sale

Bank Owned

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Distressed Sales
Percent of Distressed Sales Summit County

45.0%

All Property types excluding fractionals

Source: Summit County Recorder, PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%

Short Sale

REO

4
Q3
1

4
Q2
1

14
Q1

3
Q4
1

3
Q3
1

3
Q2
1

3
Q1
1

2
Q4
1

2
Q3
1

2
Q2
1

2
Q1
1

Q4
11

Q3
11

Q2
11

Q1
11

0
Q4
1

Q3
1

0.0%

Distressed Sales

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Greater Park City Prices

6 month rolling average
(as of 9/2014)

$650,000

Source: PCMLS/Coompiled by Rick Klein

35.00%
30.00%

$600,000

25.00%
$550,000
20.00%
$500,000
15.00%
$450,000
10.00%
$400,000

5.00%
0.00%

Se

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$350,000

All

Ex Distressed

% Distressed (3 mo. avg.)

Shadow Inventory/Foreclosures

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Core Logic announced (10/1/2014) 49,000 foreclosures in

August down 22% from one year ago. There are
approximately 629K homes in some stages of foreclosure
compare to 936K in August of 2913. Foreclosure inventory
is currently 1.6% of homes with a mortgage compared to
2.4% in August 2013. Utahs foreclosure inventory is 0.6%.
Yet, five years into the recovery, the foreclosure inventory
is still three times normal levels. Since the great recession,
seven million homes have been foreclosed which accounts
for 15% of all mortgages.

DistressedSales

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Foreclosure Report - Wasatch County

160

Source: Wasatch County Recorder/Rick J. Klein

140
120

NODsremainstuckat
around20unitsperquarter

100
80
60
40
20

4
1
Q 0
1
1
Q 1
2
1
Q 1
3
1
Q 1
4
1
Q 1
1
1
Q 2
2
1
Q 2
3
1
Q 2
4
1
Q 2
1
1
Q 3
2
1
Q 3
3
1
Q 3
4
1
Q 3
1
1
Q 4
2
1
Q 4
3
14

10

10

10

09

09

09

09

08

08

08

08

07

07

07

07

Notice of Default

Trustee's Deed

DistressedSales

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Foreclosure Report - Summit County

250

Includes all property types except fractioinals

Source: Summi County Recorder/Compiled by Rick Klein

200

NODsincreasedby10units
fromQ22014.

150

100

50

Q
1
Q 07
2
Q 07
3
Q 07
4
Q 07
1
Q 08
2
Q 09
3
Q 08
4
Q 08
1
Q 09
2
Q 09
3
Q 09
4
Q 09
1
Q 10
2
Q 10
3
Q 10
4
Q 10
1
Q 11
2
Q 11
3
Q 11
4
Q 11
1
Q 12
2
Q 12
3
Q 12
4
Q 12
1
Q 13
2
Q 13
3
Q 13
4
Q 13
1
Q 14
2
Q 14
3
14

Notice of Default

Trustee's Deed

Home Prices

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Case Shiller announced (7/29) home prices increases slowed to

6.7% for the 12 months ending in July; 19 of the 20 cities saw
lower gains in July than in June.
FHFA stated (9/23) home prices increased 4.4% for the 12 months
ending July 2014 and were up 0.1% from June.
CoreLogic reported (August) home prices increased 6.4%
year over year in July; this is down 2% from last quarter.
Appreciation peaked at 12% in Oct 2013. Utah is up 6.2%
YOY.
NAR (9/22) stated median existing home prices rose 4.8% to
$219,800 from one year ago.
GPC 12 month median price for September is $520K and
the mean price is $856,270. This represents a 2.1% and
2.5% increase over September 2013.

Home Prices

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Home Prices

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Home Prices
Federal Housing Finance Agency

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Home Prices

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Home Prices
NAR and PC Median Price Trends
As of 9/2014

PC Median right axis

1/
1

/1

3
/1

1/
1

/1

1/
1

1/
1/

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1

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1/
1

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1

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1/
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1/
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1/
1

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1/
1

US Median left axis

$100,000
11

$100,000
0

$200,000

$120,000

$300,000

$140,000

$400,000

$160,000

$500,000

$180,000

$600,000

$200,000

$700,000
PC 6 Mo Rolling Avg

$800,000

Source: NAR, PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

$220,000

1/
1

NAR Median

$240,000

Homes Prices

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Greater Park City Median Prices

12 month rolling average
$800,000

(As of 6/2013)
Source PCMLS & Rick J. Klein

$700,000

$500,000

$400,000

$300,000

$200,000

nJu 01
Ja l-01
nJu 02
Ja l-02
nJu 03
Ja l-03
nJu 04
Ja l-04
nJu 05
Ja l-05
nJu 06
Ja l-06
nJu 07
Ja l-07
nJu 08
Ja l-08
nJu 09
Ja l-09
nJu 10
l
Ja -10
nJu 11
Ja l-11
nJu 12
Ja l-12
nJu 13
Ja l-13
nJu 14
l-1
4

$100,000

Ja

Median Price

$600,000

PricesconMnuetorise,
albeit,atasluggishpace.

12 Mo avg Med Price`

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Home Prices
GPC 12 Month Median Prices
As of 9/2014
Source: PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

800000
700000

Q32014:12monthmedian
priceup2.1%aboveQ32013
Up11.7%aboveQ22012

500000
400000
300000
200000
100000

Median Price

14

20

13
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20

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00

Median Price

600000

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Home Prices
GPC 12 Month Average Prices
As of 9/2014
Source: PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

1200000

1000000

600000

400000

200000

14

20

13
20

3
Q

20

12

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09

Average Price

20

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Avg price

800000

Q32014:12monthaverage
priceup2.5%aboveQ32013
up10.6%aboveQ32012

Home Prices

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

12 mo Median/Average Values & Transactions

as of 9/2014
Source: PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

Appearspriceshave
aaenedasnumber
ofsaleshasslowed

1000000

3000
2500

800000

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1500
400000

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3500

Median Price

Average Price

# of transactions (right axis)

# od transactions

1200000

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Home Prices by Segment

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Average Price 9/13 to 9/14 up 6.8% (last qtr. 26%)

Median Price 9/13 to 9/14 up 4.0% (last qtr. 21%)
# of Transaction 9/13 to 9/14 down 19.4% (last qtr -8%)

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RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Home Prices by Segment

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RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Home Prices by Segment

451637!80953:!;<70=!%$"&'!
479>?79@7<!&$%(!
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Average Price 9/13 to 9/14 up 12.8% (last qtr 8.5%)

Median Price 9/13 to 9/14 up 4.2% (last qtr 6.3%)
# of Transaction 9/13 to 9/14 up 14% (last qtr 14.5%)

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RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Home Prices by Segment

45/657!89:.7!%!"!3!
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Average Price 9/13 to 9/14 up 8.5% (last qtr 1.5%)

Median Price 9/13 to 9/14 up 5.7% (last qtr -5.3%)
# of Transaction 9/13 to 9/14 down 8.5% (last qtr 14.5%)

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RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Home Prices by Segment

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Average Price 9/13 to 9/14 up 6.6% (last qtr 10.0%)

Median Price 9/13 to 9/14 up 10.4% (last qtr 11.6%)
# of Transaction 9/13 to 9/14 up 15.7% (last qtr 36.4%)

Q3 2014 Snap Shot

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Salesdata
baseduponpast
12months.

In Summary

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Demand has weakened since last year: total number of sales

for GPC for the past 9 months is down 6% over last year.
Inventory remains low with an absorption rate of 7.1 months;
this is impacting sales.
Distressed sales are not a factor in our market.
Prices have stabilized and are improving slowly for our overall
market. However, price appreciation is highly dependent upon
market segment.
Our market is highly segmented; consumers need knowledgeable
professional agents for selling or purchasing property.
Rates are great and we have too many cash sales.