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1501 North University Avenue, Suite 769


Little Rock, Arkansas 72207
Phone: 501-663-2414
E-Mail: oakleafs@aol.com



R E S E A R C H M E M O R A N D U M

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Ernest J. Oakleaf, PhD, Zoe D. Oakleaf, Ph.D.
Opinion Research Associates, Inc.
RE: Survey of Arkansas Likely Voters
DATE: November 2, 2014

Opinion Research Associates, Inc., conducted a survey of 400 Arkansas registered voters
who were judged to be likely to vote in the November election based on their voting
history and a screening question. Interviews were conducted October 30 November 1,
2014, calling phone numbers in voter files as volunteered by voters, and including cell
phones. The sample was drawn from the most up-to-date voter files, including all new
voters registered for this cycle. The sample was stratified with 25% in each
congressional district, and comprised of 53% women, 47% men and 11% African-
American. Occasionally percentages will not add up to 100% owing to rounding error.
The margin of error for a sample of 400 cases is 5 percentage points at the 95% level of
confidence, meaning that percentages calculated of this size can be expected to vary, as a
consequence of random variation, by no more than 5 points from true population
percentages in 19 of 20 samples drawn.
In the race for governor of Arkansas, Former Democratic Congressman Mike Ross leads
former Republican Congressman Asa Hutchinson 43% to 39% with 2% for Libertarian
Frank Gilbert, and 3% for Josh Drake of the Green Party, with 14% undecided.
In the race for the U.S. Senate, Democratic Senator Mark Pryor leads Republican
Congressman Tom Cotton 45% to 43%, with Libertarian Nathan LaFrance at 1%, and
Mark Swaney of the Green Party at 3%, and 8% undecided.
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Issue 1, the proposed amendment to establish a legislative oversight committee to review
and approve administrative rules promulgated by state agencies, is favored by 45% of
voters, with 32% saying they will definitely vote for the measure, and 15% saying they
will probably vote for it. 35% of voters say they will vote against the measure, 23%
definitely and 12% probably. 19% are undecided.
Respondents were then read the following statement and question: If this amendment
passes it would give the legislature powers that have traditionally been in the executive
branch, altering the balance of power to favor the legislature over the governor and state
agencies, and allowing a small number of legislators to block implementation of rules and
regulations developed by professional agency staff. Does knowing this make you more
likely or less likely to vote for this amendment, or does it make no difference? 43% said
it would make them less likely to vote for the amendment, 35% said it would make no
difference, and 10% said it would make them more likely to vote for the amendment.
12% either said they didnt believe the statement or were undecided.
Next respondents were read: This amendment would take away rule making authority
from agency staff and commissioners, who are subject matter experts, and give it to
legislators who are influenced by politics. Does knowing this make you more likely or
less likely to vote for this amendment, or does it make no difference? Similarly, 43%
said this would make them less likely to vote for the amendment, 38% said it would make
no difference, and 10% said it would make them more likely to vote for the amendment.
9% either said they didnt believe the statement or were undecided.