2QFY2015 Result Update | Banking

October 20, 2014

Axis Bank

BUY

Performance Highlights

CMP
Target Price

Particulars (` cr)
NII
Pre-prov. profit
PAT

2QFY15
3,525
3,162
1,611

1QFY15
3,310
2,896
1,667

% chg (qoq)
6.5
9.2
(3.4)

2QFY14
2,937
2,750
1,362

% chg (yoy)
20.0
15.0
18.2

Source: Company, Angel Research

Axis Bank reported a good set of numbers for 2QFY2015 with an earnings
growth of 18.2% yoy at `1610.7cr, mainly on account of healthy growth in net
interest income.
Retail business continues to drive loan growth and fee income growth; Slippages
plus incremental restructuring on lower side: During 2QFY2015, the bank
reported an advance growth of 20.3% yoy, while deposits grew by 11.1% yoy.
The growth in the loan book has outpaced the industry loan growth, primarily due
to strong traction witnessed in the Retail loan book, which grew by 27% yoy, and
accounted for 38% of the advances as compared to 35% in 2QFY2014. The SME
book grew at a steady pace of 15% yoy. Within retail, (88% of the domestic retail
lending book is secured) 53% of advances were accounted by Home loans, 15%
by Retail agricultural loans, 9% by Auto loans, and 9% by Personal Loans and
Credit Cards. Focus on retail franchise continued to benefit the bank with CASA
deposits registering a growth of 15.4% yoy, within which savings deposits grew by
20.1% yoy and current deposits growing by 8.2% yoy. The CASA ratio improved
by 167bp yoy to 44.5%, which improved the NIM by 18bp yoy to 3.97%.
Domestic and International NIM improved by 10bp qoq each to 4.3% and 1.7%
respectively in 2QFY2015. Going forward, the Management has indicated at the
NIM moderating slightly due to a 10bp cut in the base rate with 85-90% of loans
being linked to the base rate. During the quarter, the bank witnessed slippages of
`911cr (annualized slippage rate of 1.5%) as against `626cr in 1QFY2015
(annualized slippage rate of 1.09%). Overall, slippages and fresh restructuring
taken together amounted to `1,481cr which is lower as compared to `1,649cr
reported during 2QFY2014. The bank has maintained its guidance of `6,500cr
of addition to stressed assets in FY2015.

`402
`501

Investment Period

12 Months

Stock Info
Sector
Market Cap (` cr)
Beta
52 Week High / Low
Avg. Daily Volume
Face Value (`)
BSE Sensex
Nifty
Reuters Code
Bloomberg Code

Banking
94,851
1.6
423/202
17,634
2
26,109
7,780
AXBK.BO
AXSB@IN

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters

28.9

MF / Banks / Indian Fls

10.8

FII / NRIs / OCBs

47.5

Indian Public / Others

12.8

Abs. (%)

3m

1yr

3yr

Sensex

1.8

26.5

79.9

Axis Bank

2.8

83.6

53.3

Outlook and valuation: Healthy pace of branch expansion, leading to a robust

distribution network, continues to be the driving force for the banks retail
business. Going forward, the bank will continue to focus on retail loans and will
change its retail loans mix to a higher return business. With improvement in the
economic environment, it is well positioned to grow by at least a few percentage
points higher than the average industry growth rate. The Management has given
a guidance of stressed assets at `6,500cr for FY2015 and with the stressed assets
coming at `2,587cr in 1HFY2015, we believe that slippages and incremental
restructuring for FY2015 will be lower than what has been guided by the bank.
We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `501.

Key financials (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr)
NII
% chg
Net profit
% chg
NIM (%)
EPS (`)
P/E (x)
P/ABV (x)
RoA (%)
RoE (%)

FY2013
9,666
20.6
5,179
22.1
3.2
22.1
17.9
2.8
1.7
18.5

FY2014
11,952
23.6
6,218
20.0
3.4
26.5
15.0
2.4
1.7
17.4

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of October 17, 2014

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

FY2015E
14,175
18.6
7,219
16.1
3.6
30.7
12.8
2.1
1.8
17.6

FY2016E
16,701
17.8
8,487
17.6
3.6
36.1
10.9
1.8
1.8
18.0

Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808
vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com

Umesh Matkar
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847
umesh.matkar@angelbroking.com

Axis Bank | 2QFY2015 Result Update

Exhibit 1: 2QFY2015 performance summary (Standalone)

Particulars (` cr)

2QFY15

1QFY15

% chg (qoq)

2QFY14

% chg (yoy)

FY2014

FY2013

% chg

Interest earned

8,602

8,289

3.8

7,609

13.1

30,641

27,183

12.7

- on Advances / Bills

6,256

6,085

2.8

5,394

16.0

21,950

19,166

14.5

- on investments

2,205

2,102

4.9

2,143

2.9

8,343

7,747

7.7

54

56

(2.5)

35

55.7

167

111

49.9

- on balance with RBI & others

- on others

87

46

89.5

37

134.5

181

158

14.4

Interest Expended

5,078

4,979

2.0

4,672

8.7

18,690

17,516

6.7

Net Interest Income

3,525

3,310

6.5

2,937

20.0

11,952

9,666

23.6

Other income

1,948

1,691

15.2

1,766

10.3

7,405

6,551

13.0

Other income excl. treasury

1,677

1,431

17.2

1,559

7.5

6,478

5,796

11.8

- Fee Income

1,591

1,378

15.5

1,432

11.1

5,985

5,521

8.4

271

260

4.2

207

30.9

927

755

22.8

- Trading gains
- Others

86

53

61.4

127

(32.6)

493

275

79.0

Operating income

5,472

5,002

9.4

4,703

16.4

19,357

16,217

19.4

Operating expenses

2,310

2,106

9.7

1,953

18.3

7,901

6,914

14.3

- Employee expenses

786

752

4.6

644

22.1

2,601

2,377

9.4

- Other Opex

1,524

1,354

12.6

1,309

16.4

5,299

4,537

16.8

Pre-provision Profit

3,162

2,896

9.2

2,750

15.0

11,456

9,303

23.1

725

387

87.5

687

5.5

2,107

1,750

20.4

335

(100.0)

287

(100.0)

1,295

1,138

13.8

725

52

1,305.1

400

81.0

812

612

32.7

2,437

2,509

(2.9)

2,062

18.2

9,349

7,553

23.8

827

842

(1.9)

700

18.1

3,131

2,373

31.9

1,611

1,667

(3.4)

1,362

18.2

6,218

5,179

20.0

Provisions & Contingencies

- Provisions for NPAs
- Other Provisions
PBT
Provision for Tax
PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research

October 20, 2014

Axis Bank | 2QFY2015 Result Update

Exhibit 2: 2QFY2015 performance analysis (Standalone)

Particulars

2QFY15 1QFY15

% chg (qoq) 2QFY14

% chg (yoy)

Advances (` cr)

2,42,198 2,30,535

5.1 2,01,303

20.3

Deposits (` cr)

2,83,728 2,72,004

4.3 2,55,365

11.1

Balance sheet

Credit-to-Deposit Ratio (%)

85.4

84.8

61bp

78.8

653bp

Current deposits (` cr)

46,492

40,659

14.3

42,965

8.2

Saving deposits (` cr)

79,875

74,583

7.1

66,494

20.1

CASA deposits (` cr)

1,26,367 1,15,242

9.7 1,09,459

15.4

CASA ratio (%)

44.5

42.4

217bp

42.9

167bp

CAR (%)*

15.9

16.1

(19)bp

15.9

5bp

Tier 1 CAR (%)*

12.6

12.6

(7)bp

11.7

89bp

Cost of funds

6.2

6.2

(2)bp

6.3

(6)bp

Reported NIM

3.97

3.9

9bp

3.8

18bp

Cost-to-income ratio

42.2

42.1

11bp

41.5

69bp

3,613

3,463

4.3

2,734

32.1

Profitability Ratios (%)

Asset quality
Gross NPAs (` cr)
Gross NPAs (%)

1.3

1.3

0bp

1.2

15bp

Net NPAs (` cr)

1,180

1,114

6.0

838

40.7

Net NPAs (%)

0.4

0.4

0bp

0.4

7bp

78.0

77.0

100bp

80.0

(200)bp

Slippage ratio (%)

1.5

1.1

42bp

1.2

28bp

Loan loss prov. to avg. assets (%)

0.7

0.4

31bp

0.3

33bp

Provision Coverage Ratio (%)

Source: Company, Angel Research *Basel III excluding profits

Advance growth remains healthy

During 2QFY2015, the bank reported an advance growth of 20.3% yoy, while the
growth in deposits came in lower at 11.1% yoy. The growth in the loan book was
primarily aided by strong traction witnessed in the Retail loan book, which grew by
27% yoy. The SME book witnessed a steady growth of 15% yoy. Within retail, 53%
of advances were accounted by Home loans, 15% by Retail agricultural loans, and
9% by Auto loans. Further, within the retail segment, the bank will concentrate on
growing the higher yielding segments like Personal loans, Credit cards etc. The
Corporate loan book picked up pace with growth of 13.1% yoy in 2QFY2015; the
Management has indicated at the Corporate book growing at the same pace for
FY2015 on account of working capital funding and refinancing. The Management
expects the overall loan book to grow by 20% for FY2015, aided by a 25% growth
in retail loans.
CASA deposits registered a growth of 15.4% yoy, aided by a strong growth of
20.1% yoy in savings deposits, even as growth in current deposits came in weak at
8.2% yoy. On a daily average basis, the overall CASA deposits grew by 16% yoy,
within which, saving deposits grew by 19% yoy. The CASA and retail term deposits
constituted 79% of the total deposits of the bank compared to 73% a year ago.
The cost of funds fell by 6bp yoy to 6.19% which resulted in a 18bp increase in
NIM to 3.97%. Going forward, the Management has guided for slight moderation
in NIM on account of 10bp reduction in the base rate.
October 20, 2014

Axis Bank | 2QFY2015 Result Update

Exhibit 3: Average CASA deposits grew by 16% yoy

20

Reported yoy growth in average CASA balances (%)

Exhibit 4: Period-end CASA ratio at 44.5%

(%)
45.0

46.0
44.0
16
15

14

16

16

42.9

42.6

2QFY14

3QFY14

44.5
42.4

42.0
40.0

14

38.0
36.0
34.0
32.0

10
2QFY14

3QFY14

4QFY14

1QFY15

2QFY15

30.0

Source: Company, Angel Research

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 5: Cost of funds stable at 6.2% qoq

Exhibit 6: NIM at 3.97%

(%)
6.5

(%)
4.2
6.25

6.29

6.20

6.2

6.2

3.9

3.79

4QFY14

1QFY15

3.89

3.9

4QFY14

1QFY15

2QFY15

3.97

3.71

3.6
5.5

3.3
3.0

4.5

2.7
2.4

3.5
2QFY14

3QFY14

Source: Company, Angel Research

4QFY14

1QFY15

2QFY15

2QFY14

3QFY14

2QFY15

Source: Company, Angel Research

Moderate growth in non-interest income (excluding treasury

profits)
During 2QFY2015, other income (excl treasury profits) for the bank grew weak at
7.5% yoy, which was largely due to low growth of 7% yoy in corporate banking
fee. Retail fee income, the largest contributor to overall fee income, grew by 24%,
led by processing fee on lending and distribution of investment products. Going
forward, the fee income is expected to grow in low double digits, according to the
bank, with a pick up expected in the corporate loan book.

Stressed assets lower during quarter

During the quarter, the bank witnessed slippages of `911cr (annualized slippage
rate of 1.5%) as against `626cr in 1QFY2015 (annualized slippage rate of
1.09%). During the quarter, the bank restructured advances worth `570cr as
compared to `480cr in 1QFY2015, thereby taking its outstanding restructured
book to `6,690cr. Overall, slippages and fresh restructuring taken together
amounted to `1,481cr, much lower than `1,649cr reported during 2QFY2014.
The Management has maintained its guidance of an impairment of `6,500cr in
FY2015. Due to higher slippage in the current quarter, the Gross NPA ratio
increased by 15bp yoy to 1.34% whereas the Net NPA ratio rose by 7bp yoy
0.44%.
October 20, 2014

Axis Bank | 2QFY2015 Result Update

Exhibit 7: Slippages ratio higher qoq and yoy

Exhibit 8: Trends in NPA ratios

Gross NPAs (%)

(%)
1.50

1.60
1.23
1.20

85.0
78.0

1.0

1.09

NPA coverage (%, RHS

1.3
80.0

1.11

Net NPAs (%)

78.0

77

78
77.5

0.8
70.0

0.52

2QFY14

3QFY14

4QFY14

1QFY15

2QFY15

1.34
0.44

1.34
0.44

0.3

1.2
0.4

0.40

1.3
0.4

0.5
1.2
0.4

0.80

2QFY14

3QFY14

4QFY14

1QFY15

2QFY15

55.0

Source: Company, Angel Research

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: PCR including tech. write-offs

Exhibit 9: Steady Network expansion continues

Exhibit 10: Cost-to-income ratio steady at 42.2%

7,500

1,200
2,225

2,321

2,402

2421

2505

800

5,000

2QFY14

3QFY14

4QFY14

1QFY15

2QFY15

400

2,500
-

Source: Company, Angel Research;

October 20, 2014

1,500

786

1,600

42.2

45.0
40.0
35.0

1,000
500

1,524

10,000

39.6

2,000

752

2,000

42.1

CIR (%, RHS)

1,354

12,500

659

12,930

Staff costs (` cr)

1,472

12,922

Other opex (` cr)

43.5
2,500
41.5
655

12,328

15,000

1,358

11,796

13,146

644

2,400

ATMs (RHS)

1,309

Branches

2,800

62.5

2QFY14

3QFY14

4QFY14

1QFY15

2QFY15

30.0
25.0

Source: Company, Angel Research

Axis Bank | 2QFY2015 Result Update

Outlook and valuation: Healthy pace of branch expansion, leading to a robust

distribution network, continues to be the driving force for the banks retail business.
Going forward, it will continue to focus on retail loans and will change its retail
loans mix to a higher return business. With improvement in the economic
environment, the bank is well positioned to grow by at least a few percentage
points higher than the average industry growth rates. The Management have given
a guidance of stressed assets at `6,500cr for FY2015 and with the stressed assets
coming at `2,587cr in 1HFY2015, we believe that slippages and incremental
restructuring for FY2015 will be lower than what has been guided by the bank. We
maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `501.

Exhibit 11: Recommendation summary

CMP
(`)

Tgt. price
(`)

Upside
(%)

FY2016E
FY2016E
P/ABV (x) Tgt. P/ABV (x)

FY2016E
P/E (x)

FY2014-16E
EPS CAGR (%)

FY2016E
RoA (%)

FY2016E
RoE (%)

3.8

16.2

24.5

2.0

23.2

2.5

13.1

16.2

1.5

15.6

2.3

10.3

13.9

1.6

19.0

1.9

2.4

11.1

16.8

1.8

18.0

1.4

1.4

10.4

29.0

0.8

13.9

1.4

10.8

13.1

1.2

13.2

0.9

1.2

6.1

6.8

0.9

15.0

17.1

0.9

1.0

6.2

15.5

0.8

14.2

1,134

23.4

0.8

1.0

5.6

33.5

0.9

14.6

101

27.5

0.6

0.8

4.1

13.1

0.6

14.0

258

317

23.2

0.6

0.7

4.3

19.5

0.6

12.9

217

235

8.1

0.7

0.8

4.9

25.2

0.6

13.5

384

410

6.9

0.7

0.7

5.1

19.1

0.6

12.4

Buy

62

76

23.6

0.4

0.5

4.6

38.7

0.5

8.9

Buy

59

75

28.2

0.5

0.6

3.8

22.0

0.6

11.5

Company

Reco.

HDFCBk

Accumulate

885

962

8.7

3.5

ICICIBk*

Buy

1,506

1,881

24.9

1.9

YesBk

Buy

598

742

24.2

1.8

AxisBk

Buy

402

501

24.7

SBI*

Buy

2,522

2,974

17.9

FedBk

Neutral

136

SIB

Buy

26

36

36.8

BOB

Buy

872

1,021

PNB

Buy

919

UcoBk

Buy

79

BOI

Buy

UnionBk

Accumulate

CanBk

Accumulate

IDBI#
DenaBk

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF

Company Background
Axis Bank is India's third-largest private sector bank after ICICI Bank and HDFC
Bank. The bank is promoted by government institutions, led by UTI (SUUTI holds
12% stake currently). The bank has an extensive network of 2,505 branches and
13,146 ATMs spread across 1686 centers (~48% in metro and urban regions).
The bank's strong growth has been backed by robust retail branch expansion,
strong corporate relationships and a wide range of fee income products.

October 20, 2014

Axis Bank | 2QFY2015 Result Update

Income statement (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr)

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15E

FY16E

5,004

6,563

8,018

9,666

11,952

14,175

16,701

35.8

31.1

22.2

20.6

23.6

18.6

17.8

3,946

4,632

5,420

6,551

7,405

8,104

9,209

39.2

17.4

17.0

20.9

13.0

9.4

13.6

8,950

11,195

13,438

16,217

19,357

22,279

25,910

37.3

25.1

20.0

20.7

19.4

15.1

16.3

3,710

4,779

6,007

6,914

7,901

9,216

10,754

29.8

28.8

25.7

15.1

14.3

16.6

16.7

5,241

6,416

7,431

9,303

11,456

13,063

15,155

43.1

22.4

15.8

25.2

23.1

14.0

16.0

1,389

1,280

1,143

1,750

2,107

2,208

2,392

58.5

(7.9)

(10.7)

53.1

20.4

4.8

8.4

3,851

5,136

6,288

7,553

9,349

10,855

12,763

- YoY Growth (%)

38.3

33.3

22.4

20.1

23.8

16.1

17.6

Prov. for Taxation

1,337

1,747

2,046

2,373

3,131

3,637

4,276

34.7

34.0

32.5

31.4

33.5

33.5

33.5

2,515

3,388

4,242

5,179

6,218

7,219

8,487

38.5

34.8

25.2

22.1

20.0

16.1

17.6

Net Interest Income

- YoY Growth (%)
Other Income
- YoY Growth (%)
Operating Income
- YoY Growth (%)
Operating Expenses
- YoY Growth (%)
Pre - Provision Profit
- YoY Growth (%)
Prov. & Cont.
- YoY Growth (%)
Profit Before Tax

- as a % of PBT
PAT
- YoY Growth (%)

October 20, 2014

Axis Bank | 2QFY2015 Result Update

Balance sheet (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr)
Share Capital
Reserve & Surplus
Deposits
- Growth (%)

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15E

FY16E

405

411

413

468

470

470

470

15,639

18,588

22,395

32,640

37,751

43,366

49,974

141,300 189,238 220,104 252,614 280,945

3,23,086

3,94,165

20.4

33.9

16.3

14.8

11.2

15.0

22.0

10,014

19,275

23,498

31,412

38,065

41,421

49,928

Tier 2 Capital

7,156

6,993

10,574

12,540

12,226

12,095

11,793

Other Liab. & Prov.

6,134

8,209

8,643

10,888

13,789

15,575

19,224

180,648 242,713 285,628 340,561 383,245

4,36,014

5,25,554

Borrowings

Total Liabilities
Cash Balances

9,482

13,886

10,703

14,792

17,041

16,154

19,708

Bank Balances

5,722

7,522

3,231

5,643

11,197

10,900

13,139

55,975

71,992

93,192 113,738 113,548

1,22,303

1,43,270

104,341 142,408 169,760 196,966 230,067

2,73,779

3,34,011

19.0

22.0

Investments
Advances
- Growth (%)

27.9

36.5

19.2

16.0

16.8

Fixed Assets

1,222

2,273

2,259

2,356

2,410

2,660

3,110

Other Assets

3,906

4,632

6,483

7,067

8,981

10,217

12,316

180,648 242,713 285,628 340,561 383,245

4,36,014

5,25,554

13.8

20.5

Total Assets
- Growth (%)

October 20, 2014

FY10

22.3

34.4

17.7

19.2

12.5

Axis Bank | 2QFY2015 Result Update

Ratio analysis (Standalone)

Y/E March

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15E

FY16E

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.6

41.4

42.7

44.7

42.6

40.8

41.4

41.5

RoA

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.8

RoE

19.2

19.3

20.3

18.5

17.4

17.6

18.0

CASA Ratio

46.7

41.1

41.5

44.4

45.0

46.7

47.4

Credit/Deposit Ratio

73.8

75.3

77.1

78.0

81.9

84.7

84.7

CAR

15.8

12.7

13.7

17.0

16.9

16.1

15.0

- Tier I

11.2

9.4

9.4

12.2

12.6

12.9

12.3

Gross NPAs

1.3

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.4

1.9

2.2

Net NPAs

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.7

Slippages

2.2

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.3

1.2

Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets

0.8

0.5

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.3

72.4

80.9

81.0

79.0

76.7

75.0

75.0

62.1

82.5

102.7

110.7

132.3

30.7

36.1

393.8

462.5

551.5

705.2

808.4

185.0

213.2

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

29.0

34.0

Profitability ratios (%)

NIMs
Cost to Income Ratio

B/S ratios (%)

Asset Quality (%)

Provision Coverage
Per Share Data (`)
EPS
ABVPS (75% cover.)
DPS
Valuation Ratios
PER (x)

24.5

18.4

14.8

13.7

11.5

12.8

10.9

P/ABVPS (x)

3.9

3.3

2.8

2.2

1.9

2.1

1.8

Dividend Yield

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.3

7.4

8.6

NII

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.5

(-) Prov. Exp.

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

Adj. NII

2.2

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.0

Treasury

0.4

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.1

0.1

Int. Sens. Inc.

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.7

3.0

3.0

3.0

Other Inc.

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.9

1.9

Op. Inc.

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.8

4.9

4.9

Opex

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

PBT

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.7

2.7

Taxes

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

RoA

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.8

Leverage

12.5

12.1

12.6

11.2

10.1

10.0

10.2

RoE

19.2

19.3

20.3

18.5

17.4

17.6

18.0

DuPont Analysis

Note: * Stock split from ` 10 TO ` 2 on July 28, 2014

October 20, 2014

Axis Bank | 2QFY2015 Result Update

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800

E-mail: research@angelbroking.com

Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement

1. Analyst ownership of the stock
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock
4. Broking relationship with company covered

Axis Bank
No
No
Yes
No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

Ratings (Returns):

October 20, 2014

Buy (> 15%)

Reduce (-5% to -15%)

Accumulate (5% to 15%)

Sell (< -15%)

Neutral (-5 to 5%)

10