2.

1 Reliability:
Reliability theory provides a way to examine a multiple component system or a
product calculating its overall reliability, the probability that the system will work
as required in cycle or in hours. Briefly it means how long the product is going
to last.

The reliability of the chosen product which is electric toaster could be

considered and addressed in various ways. The measurement unit is hours.

2.1.1 Practical example of Reliability measurement of electric toaster:

The main aim of plan is to minimize the effects of failure if a failure occurs. One
of the main components of a toaster is heating element. A random sample of
1000 heating element is taken from a large batch of toaster then they are tested
to confirm that they function satisfactorily and finally put them on market.

It is noticed that after 300 hours after the start of the test it is noticed that 200
heating element of toasters have been burned off (failed), leaving 800 still
working. The reliability of the part at time t=300 hours is R (300) and calculated
as following:

R (300) =

Number surviving at time t 300 hours

800
=
= 0.80
Number at start when time t 0
1000

As the time of test increase the number of failures increases and eventually
reliability decreases (Graph 2.1).

20

Reliability versus Time graph

1.2

Reliability

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Time in hours since test started

Graph 2.1
Therefore in order to increase the durability and reliability of heating element,
selecting the material of heating element is critical (by using elaborate materials).

2.1.2 Failure Rate:

At the instant when t = 300 hours the components are failing at 1 per hour. Since
800 are still working, the instantaneous failure rate is obtained as following
calculation:

Instantaneous failure rate =

Number failingper hour at instant t 300

Number of parts still working at instant t 300

1
= 0.0013 per hour
800

21

If it is supposed that the toaster has a constant failure rate of 1 every 9000 hours,
its reliability in a period of 1000 hours is obtained as following calculation:
R (t) = e .t
Where: R (t) = Reliability at time t

= Constant Failure rate

Constant Failure rate = =

1
= 1.11 x 10 -4
9000

R (1000) = e -1.11 x 10

-4

x 1000

R (1000) = e -0.11
R (1000) = 0.90
If the number of sample were 1000 heating element, the number of failures in
1000 hours is obtained as following:

Number surviving the test = Reliability x Number on test

= 0.9 x 1000
= 900
Number of failures = Number at start Number surviving
= 1000 900 = 100

2.1.3 System Reliability for more than one component 9 :

Many systems can be modeled using series structures, parallel structures or
combinations of both.

9. Online resource - http://www.columbia.edu/~umk1/Reliability/Reliabil.html#FirstExample

22

Series Reliability:
There may be many components in a series. In this case all n components must
work in order for the whole system to work (Figure 2.2).

Figure 2.2: Series Reliability

Overall Reliability = R 1 x R 2 x . . . x R n

Parallel Reliability:

In a parallel system, the system will work as long as at least one component
works (Figure 2.3).

Figure 2.3: Parallel Reliability

Overall reliability = 1 (1 - R 1 ) (1 - R 2 ) . . . (1 - R n )

23

Combination structure:
A system may also combine both parallel and series structures (Figure 2.4).

Figure 2.4: Combination structure

Result: By comparing two systems the parallel system would be more reliable.

2.1.4 System reliability in electrical toaster:

In this system the main components of the toaster have been considered and the
system reliability of the product is analysed.
In this section three main components which are plug fuse, power cord and
heating element.
These three components are connected together via series system (Figure 2.5).

Plug fuse
RA

Power cord
RB

Heating element
RC

Figure 2.5: Components of toaster in series

One of the disadvantages of series model is that if one component fails the whole
system will stop. If plug fuse blown the toaster will not function and if power cord
breaks the toaster will not function and finally if heating element fails the whole
system will not function. It is supposed that R A = 0.9, R B = 0.9, R C = 0.9
Therefore R = 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 = 0.729 (In series).

24

If the components were connected together via parallel the reliability would
increase.
R = 1 (1 0.9) (1 0.9) (1 0.9) = 0.999 (In parallel)
But in reality the above named components of the toaster cant be connected
through parallel.
On the other hand as the system in toaster is not complex the reliability is still
high because any problem can be easily detected and repaired. But in complex
systems in order to increase the reliability the system must rely on combination of
both series and parallel.

2.1.5 Reliability measurements for toasters heating element:

Mean Time between Failures (MTBF): is the mean (average) time between
failures of a system, and is often attributed to the useful life of the device
(Figure 2.6)
Operating time
Up
Down

Between failures
One failure

One failure

Figure 2.6 10
Time Between failures = (down time up time)
Operating time = (down time up time)
MTBF =

(downtime - uptime)
(operating time)
=
number of failures
number of failures

10. Online resource - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MTBF

25

A test was carried out regarding 250 heating element used in toaster. The test
results were as follows:
1st failure = 40 hours, 2nd = 45, 3rd = 80, 4th = 100
The testing was discontinued after the 4th failure. The reliability of the component
after 1 hours use per week and per day for 1 year has been calculated as
following:
MTBF =

(1 x 40) (1 x 45) (1 x 80) (247 x 100)

4

MTBF = 4973 hours

Failure rate =

1
1
Failures
=
= 2.01 x 10 4
MTBF
4973
Hours

Time t = 13 months x 4 hours per months = 52 hours

Reliability for time t = 52 hours:
R (52) = e -2.01 x 10

-4

x 52

= 0.98

Time t = 365 hours

Reliability for time t = 365 hours:
R (365) = e -2.01 x 10

-4

x 365

= 0.93

Comments: By comparing two reliabilities the more the component is used in

period of time the less the reliability became. The reliability reduces as the
operating period increases.
Problems with MTBF:
The use of MTBF in the aeronautical industry (and others) has been called into
question due to the inaccuracy of its application to real systems and the nature of
the culture which it generates. Many component MTBFs are given in databases,
and often these values are very inaccurate. The British Royal Air Force is looking
26

at other methods to describe, such as maintenance-free operating period

(MFOP). The MFOP is a period of time during which there is not need for
scheduled or unscheduled maintenance. is an alternative measure of
performance to MTBF, or mean time between failures, which has some
mathematical issues mostly caused by the misconception that MTBF represents
the point in time when the probability of failure is equal to the probability of
continued operation 11 .

2.2 Safety:
2.2.1. Safety assessment and testing 12 :
The Electricity at Work Regulations (1989) requires that electrical appliances be
maintained properly so that they remain safe during use.
The HSE recommends three levels of maintenance actions:
User checks:
In line with good health & safety practice, users need to be encouraged to look
for signs of possible hazard every time they use electrical equipment. They
should look for damage to the outside of the equipment, its lead and plug before
they use it, but they should not take the plug apart.
Formal Visual Inspections:
The formal visual inspection can be carried out by anyone who has some
guidance on what to look for.

11. Online resource - http://www.skyaid.org/Skycar/MFOP.htm

12. Online resource - http://www.patinfo.co.uk/index.htm

27

Combined Inspection and testing:

Testing needs to be carried out if there is reason to suspect that equipment may
be faulty, or after repairs or any modification has been carried out. In order to
undertake in-house testing, a simple PAT tester with pass/fail indication is
required. The Seaward PAC500 and the Tele-Products PAT-IT both fulfill these
criteria and are reasonably priced.

Design of electrical appliances 13 :

If appliances in this case electrical toaster that use mains electricity develop a
fault and the user were to come into contact with the mains, the consequences
can be lethal. In the design of such appliances, steps are taken to prevent this.
The design rule adapted is that it is always possible for appliances to develop a
single fault. However, precautions are taken such that a single fault should not
result in any danger to the user.

Designers have two choices of how this is implemented. On appliances that have
large areas of exposed metal, like toaster or an electric fire, this is connected to
the Earth pin of the mains plug. The idea is that if high voltages should develop
within the toaster due to a single fault, this cannot reach the user, as the whole
unit is enclosed in a safe earthed case. This method of protection is known as
Class I.

13. Online resource - http://www.patinfo.co.uk/index.htm

28

The second way of providing protection for the user is by using two separate
layers of insulation. If a single fault resulted in the first layer of insulation being
breached, then the second layer of protection is still available. This method of
providing safety is known as Double Insulation and is known officially as Class II.
This form of construction is used in products that are enclosed fully in plastic,
such as drills and hair dryers.

The most important safety issues in a toaster that needed to be considered are
burn and electrocution prevention. To prevent burning hands when removing
toast, heat resistant material is used instead of the heat conductive metal
surface.
Also a concave down design is put into place to allow easier removal of toast and
prevent burning hands. To prevent possible fire or electrocution in case of toaster
malfunction, a simple circuit breaker (fuse) is added to the power cable (sketch
2.2).

Figure 2.2: Sketch of a toaster

29

Recent safety improvements in toasters:

The product has been modified and improved. The requiring justification is a
standard toaster combined with an ionizing smoke detector (as typically mounted
on the ceiling of most properties as a smoke alarm) The product uses the smoke
detector as a sensing device to monitor the state of the toasting process, instead
of using a timer as normally found on most toasters.

It stops the toast burning or smoking and acts as a safety device by detecting
smoke and pre-emitted particles at source and then safely switching off the
heating elements before smoking occurs 12 .

14. Online resource - http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/radioactivity/government/legislation/pdf/safetytoasterjustification.pdf

30

Bibliography & Reference

Websites:

http://www.columbia.edu/~umk1/Reliability/Reliabil.html#FirstExample

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MTBF

http://www.skyaid.org/Skycar/MFOP.htm

http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/radioactivity/government/legislation/p
df/safetytoaster-justification.pdf

http://www.patinfo.co.uk/demystifying_pat_testing.htm

Other references:

Collaborative Design handouts

31

Contents

1.1 Preliminary hazard analysis

Page 1-2

1.2 Failure Modes and Effects Analysis

Page 2-5

1.2.1 FMEA prerequisites for electric toaster

1.3 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)

Page 5-7
Page 7-13

1.3.1 The 5 whys technique

Page 13

1.3.2 Fault Tree Analysis of electric toaster

Page 14-19

2.1 Reliability

Page 20

2.1.1 Practical exam of reliability measurement of

electric toaster

Page 20-21

2.1.2 Failure rate

Page 21-22

2.1.3 System reliability for more than

one component

Page 22-24

2.1.4 System reliability in electrical toaster

Page 24-25

2.1.5 Reliability measurements for toasters

heating element

Page 25-27

2.2 Safety
2.2.1 Safety assessment and testing

Bibliography & Reference

Page 27
Page 27-30

Page 31

32