Immigration: Not a Solution to Problems of

Population Decline and Aging

John R. Bermingham
Colorado Population Coalition

This article is a synopsis of a UN study, with emphasis on Italy and the United
States. In March, 2000, the United Nations Population Division published a 143page booklet entitled, Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and
Aging Populations? Five projections were developed for eight countries: France,
Germany, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russian federation. United Kingdom and
United States, and also for Europe and the European Union ; i.e., current projections, current projections with zero immigration, migration required to offset projected population declines, migration required to offset projected declines of working age population (1664 years), and migration required to prevent any decline in
the ratio of the working age population to the old age population (65 years or older).
Key findings: demographic shrinking and aging will be accompanied by economic,
social and cultural disruptions that can only partially be offset by immigration.
KEY WORDS: migration; replacement migration; population; aging; immigration.

Thirty-five years ago runaway population growth in Third World nations was the great demographic worry. Today there is a striking change.
Though population growth continues at a troubling pace in the developing
world, below-replacement fertility and increased longevity in the worlds
economically developed nations are leading to two major concerns. Over
the next 50 years most developed nations are expected to decline significantly in size. Simultaneously, these same populations will rapidly age. In
Italy the population is expected to decline by twenty-eight percent and over

Please address correspondence to John R. Bermingham, President, Colorado Population

Coalition, P.O. Box 6201, Denver, CO 80206; e-mail: berm-j@nilenet.com.
Population and Environment: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies
Volume 22, Number 4, March 2001
2001 Human Sciences Press, Inc.

355

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half the population in the year 2050 is expected to be older than 53 years
of age!
The different country by country settings in which social and economic
problems must be resolved are often illustrated by age structure charts
such as those shown in Figure 1. Each bar is sized in proportion to the total
population in each five-year cohort from age 0 through 4 upwards, with
women in each cohort being shown on the right and men on the left. Additionally, the darkening of the bars for the non-working young (those below
fifteen years of age) and the elderly (those 65 years of age and older) leaves
the undarkened bars to represent the maximum possible number of individuals who are available to support the non-working young and the elderly
in addition to themselves.
These graphs disclose dramatically different societal problems. In Nigeria, the high proportion of young in an ever-widening base portends a
continuation of the population explosion for the foreseeable future. In the
United States, the block shape at the base coupled with a fertility rate that
hovers at the replacement level would lead to a stationary population
were it not for the constant inflow of migrants. The Italian pyramid illustrates the age structure in Europe, Japan, and Korea, where children are
not replacing their parents, immigration is relatively low, and longevity is
increasinga combination that portends populations growing older and
smaller.

45%

22%

14%

FIGURE 1. Age Pyramids for Nigeria, the U.S.A., and Italy.

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JOHN R. BERMINGHAM

According to United Nations medium variant projections, virtually

all countries of Europe are expected both to decrease in population size
and age over the next 50 years. Europe as a whole is projected to decline
by 14 percent from 729 to 628 million, with working age numbers dropping by 25 percent and the elderly population simultaneously rising from
101 to 173 million. Japans population is seen as dropping from 127 to 105
million, with the median age rising from 41 to 49 and the population 65
years or older rising from 17 to 32 percent. Italys population is projected
to decline over the next fifty years from 57 to 41 million, with the median
age shifting from 41 to 53 years and the proportion of the elderly jumping
from 18 to 35 percent (see Figure 2).
With the exception of the United States, the UN medium projections
show all major developed nations as either having reached their population
peaks or due to reach those peaks sometime between now and 2050. The
peaking of the U.S. population is so many decades into the future that
projection of any such date is unwarranted. Like all other developed nations, however, the U.S. population is also aging significantly.
The shrinking of a nations population is far less worrisome to the nations citizens than the answer to the question, Who will take care of me

FIGURE 2. Italy Today and in 2050.

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in my old age? This becomes a particularly poignant question in countries

in which so many couples have either only one child or are childless. The
question bedevils not only individuals but also economists. The precipitous
drop in the numbers in the 15 to 64 age group compared with the numbers
of elderly is shown in Table 1. (This ratioworking age to elderlyis far
more important than the ratio of workers to elderly and children combined,
since per elderly person support costs are so much greater than per person
support costs for children.)
In country after country, governments, academicians, and journalists
recognize these demographic shifts. In turn, they are reassessing pension
schemes, health-care systems, and policies and programs for economic vitality and growth. Bitter arguments are arising over the use immigration as
a tool to lessenor at least delaythe stresses.
Prompted by these concerns, the Population Division at the United
Nations has published a new report: Replacement Migration, Is it A Solution To Declining and Ageing? In many quartersespecially in Europeits
wealth of data and findings have created consternation. The demographers
are accused of promoting immigration to solve the twin problems of population decline and aging, but a close reading shows no such push. Instead,
the report simply lays out a series of What if? scenarios for each of eight
countries, the 15 nations that currently constitute the European Union and
also for the 47 countries and areas that constitute Europe as a whole. (The
full report is posted at www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm. Note that
the UN uses the British spelling of ageing while I use the American spelling in which the e is omitted.)

TABLE 1
The Number of Individuals Aged 15 to 64 for Each Individual
Aged 65 or Over

France
Germany
Italy
Japan
Nigeria
Rep. of Korea
Russian Federation
United States

1950

2000

2050

5.8
6.9
7.9
12.2
21.6
18.4
10.5
7.8

4.1
4.2
3.7
4.0
18.0
10.7
5.5
5.3

2.4
2.0
1.5
1.7
8.9
2.4
2.4
2.8

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JOHN R. BERMINGHAM

POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
How can countries escape the powerful currents that are now sweeping them towards population aging and decline?
Since the demographic history and future of every nation is determined
by the interplay of three factorslongevity, fertility and migrationit is
only by manipulation of one or more of these factors that a course change
can be planned. Since societies invariably demand increases in longevity,
however, not decreases, it is only fertility and migration that are subject to
political tweaking. With this in mind, the UN demographers examined both
fertility and immigration to determine how changes in these factors might
offset the aging and decline problems.

Encouraging BirthsNot a Solution for at Least Fifty Years

Even an abrupt and sustained increase in fertility rates cannot solve the
current demographic dilemmas. An immediate increase in births would not
begin to increase a nations supply of workers for at least fifteen years, and
a full generation would be required before a significant shift in the ratio of
the working age population to the elderly would occur.
The figures for France are illustrative (see Table 2). The 1995 ratio of
4.36 in the working age population for each elderly person is almost certain
to be roughly halved over the next fifty years regardless of what may happen to the French fertility rate. Only under the most optimistic circumstances can the French ratio of working age to elderly be expected to rebound to the 1995 level, and then not until many years beyond 2050.

TABLE 2
The Ratio of Working Age Population to Elderly in France: How a
change in fertility would not resolve the problem of societal aging
until long beyond the year 2050
1995
Fertility
Ratio of
Working-age
To Elderly

2050Low, Medium, and High Possibilities

1.71 children
per woman

1.56 children
per woman

1.96 children
per woman

2.36 children
per woman

4.36 to one

1.95 to one

2.26 to one

2.52 to one

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ImmigrationA Palliative But Not a Solution

That the problems of population decline and population aging can be
alleviated but not solved by immigration is surely the most important conclusion to be drawn from the wealth of information in this new UN report.
To reach this conclusion UN demographers have posed three questions for
each country being studied:
1. What immigration level would stabilize the population? For France,
the United Kingdom, the United States, and for the European Union nations
as a group, the numbers of migrants needed to offset population decline
are less than or comparable to recent experience. At the other extreme,
immigration levels far higher than at present would be needed to offset the
population declines foreseen for Japan, Korea, and Italy.
2. What immigration level would stabilize the working-age population? The numbers of migrants needed to offset declines in working-age
populations are significantly larger than those needed to offset total population decline. For all countries studied other than the United States, immigration levels would have to surge promptly and rapidly if working-age
populations are to be stabilized. For the U.S., immigration is already considerably higher than necessary to maintain the working-age population at
a constant number. Even so, the nations robust economy seems to have an
insatiable need for ever more and more and more workers from abroad.
3. What immigration would stabilize the ratio of the working-age to
the elderly? While immigration is a possible solution to the problem of
population decline, it is not a solution to population aging. Like all other
mortals, immigrants age. The number of immigrants needed to offset declines in the ratios of working-age populations to elderly are far too high to
be given any serious consideration. The annual figures are exceptionally
outrageous for three countries10.8 million for the United States, 9.7 million for Japan, and for Korea 93.6 millionyes, 93.6 million per year!

Italy
For Italy, the answers to the UN demographers three immigration
questions are particularly sobering (see Figure 3). If immigration is used to
prevent population decline, then in 2050 a full 29 percent of the people in
Italy will be foreigners. If immigration is used to stabilize the workforce age
the proportion rises to 39 percent. To maintain a steady ratio of workingage to elderly, the population would swell to 194 million of which 79
percent would be foreigners and only one out of every five persons would
be Italian!

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JOHN R. BERMINGHAM

Population (in Millions)

ITALY TODAY AND IN 2050

FIGURE 3. Population of Italy assuming three immigration scenarios.

REPLACEMENT MIGRATION
Replacement Migration is a new term coined by the UN demographers. Though not defined with precision, the expression is both disturbing
and arresting. The specter of foreigners replacing indigenous peoples is stirring the deepest possible feelings of nationhood in every country in Europe
and in Japan and Korea. The new calculations and terminology are forcing
recognition of these countries demographic dilemmas. What should be
done? Either maintain a constant inflow of foreigners at a jolting high level
or somehow raise workforce productivity. Perhaps working-age citizens
will have to forgo the luxuries of early retirement, short work-weeks, long
vacations, non-working spouses, and so forth. One way or another, great
changes are unavoidable.

The United States of America

Like all other developed nations, the United States is faced with a significant aging problem. This is no news to anyone with worries about the
Social Security Trust Fund. Differing from the other developed nations,

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however, we worry about growth and sprawl, not population decline. With
respect to the United States, what is new in the UN report are the specific
quantities given in response to the specific questions:
1. What immigration level would stabilize the population? For the
United States, the study calculates an average of 116,000 migrants per year
as the number needed to offset the slight population decline projected by
UN demographers in the absence of immigration. This is not much above
one-tenth the often accepted current inflow of a million immigrants per
year.
2. What immigration level would stabilize the working-age population? To offset a decline in the U.S. working-age population the study produces a figure of 319,000 per yearagain, far below the current rate.
3. What immigration would stabilize the ratio of the working-age to
the elderly? To hold this ratio at the 1995 level of 5.2 to one the study
reports that 10.8 million immigrants per year would be required. (Though
10.8 million may seem unduly high, it is virtually identical to the answer
given to this question in 1994 by Prof. Thomas. J. Espenshade, Office of
Population Research, Princeton University.)

MAJOR CONCLUSIONS
Like falling dominoes, lower fertility and increased longevity inevitably
lead to national population decline and aging. These demographic shifts
cause a nations working-age population to drop and simultaneously create
an increase in the proportion of elderly. These changes lead to economic,
social and political disruptions that then necessitate reassessments of the
nations basic policies and programs. Critical issues include: (a) percentages
of working-age populations actually working; (b) appropriate ages for retirement; (c) levels and types of retirement and health-care benefits for the
elderly; (d) sources of funds to support these programs; (e) the need for
increases in economic productivity; and (f) policies and programs relating
to international migration, including their cultural integration.
The Replacement Migration study recently issued by United Nations
demographers has put a sharp focus on immigration as a solution to the
problems created by lower fertility and increased longevity. Using current
projections for typical developed nations, the study shows (1) immigration
levels to offset declines in total populations and working-age populations
might be feasible, though probably not without severe cultural disruptions;
(2) fertility rebounds can not offset declines in workforce populations for

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JOHN R. BERMINGHAM

many, many years; and (3) nations must adapt and learn to live with much
reduced ratios of their working age populations to their elderlythe numbers of immigrants needed to hold these ratios and recent or current levels
are unbelievably huge. Immigration is not even remotely possible as a solution to this problem.