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Board of Directors
Reliance Infra-(All fig.in crores)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
1. No of Directors having no relation to Reliance is 4 indicates that the board is not biased
towards management decisions and might take decisions in the favour of shareholders
2. Though there is no independent chairman and the presiding chairman is Anil Ambani. His
stature might convince the board of directors in taking decisions which are not in the favour
of shareholders.
3. The Shareholder base was 12,29,227 as of March 31, 2014 and 12,97,076 as of March 31,
2013. Though the shareholder base is decreasing but the amount is quite substantial to have
a say in decision
Marginal Investor
Reliance Infra (Shareholding Pattern)
Institutions
Mutual Funds / UTI
Financial Institutions / Banks
Central Government / State Government(s)
Insurance Companies
Foreign Institutional Investors
Non Institutions
Individual
Public Holding
FIIS are the marginal Investor
%
0.52
0.46
0.05
16.95
19.87
12.44
50.29
Analysis
Company Name
Reliance Infra
Regression Beta
2.12
R2
0.7042
Standard Error
0.1577
Jensons Alpha
109%
Reliance Returns
100.00%
80.00%
y = 2.1211x - 0.0105
R = 0.7042
60.00%
40.00%
20.00%
-30.00%
0.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
-20.00%
-20.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
-40.00%
-60.00%
1. Reliance Infra is earning very high returns and is performing better than expected
2. Market Risk of Company is 70% and company specific is 30%
Bottom up Beta
Reliance Infra
Sector
Power
EPC
Infrastructure
Total
Company
Revenue Sector Unlevered Beta
Unlevered Beta
1.10
13652
1.04
4710
1.24
670
1.24
19032
WACC
Gross Debt
Average Maturity
Average Annual Interest Cost
Average Annual Interest Expense
MV of Debt
Equity Share Capital
Face Value
No of Outstanding Shares
Current Share Price
Total Equity
14842
3.4
10.88%
1614.8096
16058.63
263
10
26.3
647
17016.1
Levered
Beta
1.78
Company Curre
ncy
Risk
Free
Rate
Reliance
Infra
6.57
%
INR
Mature
Market
Risk
Premiu
m
5.50%
4.5
0.125
0.125
0.125
0.125
Parameters
Country Lambda
Risk
Premiu
m
3.30%
79.33%
PV
4.165509581
0.10710784
0.099146385
0.091776715
0.084954841
4.55
Ratin Sprea
g
d
DebtEquity
Cost of
Equity
After taxCost of
Debt
WACC
A+
0.94
18.97%
5.30%
12.33%
1.46%
Beta
Cost of Equity
Cost of Debt
1.10
15.21%
1.18
15.65%
1.28
16.20%
1.41
16.91%
1.58
17.86%
1.82
19.19%
2.18
21.18%
2.79
24.50%
3.99
31.13%
Cost of Capital
0.00%
4.47%
5.00%
5.16%
5.66%
5.99%
6.48%
7.14%
7.64%
15.2%
14.5%
14.0%
13.4%
13.0%
12.6%
12.4%
12.3%
12.3%
Debtequity
0.00%
11.11%
25.00%
42.86%
66.67%
100.00%
150.00%
233.33%
400.00%
Debt Ratio
Debt Ratio
Levered Firm
Value
0.00%
26,991.85
10.00%
27,537.94
20.00%
28,059.17
30.00%
28,525.75
40.00%
28,741.58
50.00%
28,983.92
60.00%
29,136.39
70.00%
28,737.52
80.00%
28,588.16
90.00%
29,085.98
(Million Rupees)
EBIT
Tax%
EBIT(1-T)
Debt
Equity
Cash
Book Value of
Capital
ROC
CY 2008
CY 2009 CY 2010 CY 2011 CY 2012 CY 2013 CY 2014
16762.5 18569.3 21938.3 23101.8 32897.8 40358.4 38779.6
8%
5%
9%
8%
25%
8%
13%
15502.350 17552.8
21356.3 24518.6 37028.2 33930.4
5
6 19968.9
5
7
9
7
101053.
116744.
219761. 242890.
59036.2
5 85838.8
2 182897
8
9
207040. 236076. 242442. 261210. 271434.
163587.1 168976
6
1
1
1
4
1063.5
3768.2
4127.5
4053.7
48.3
421.3
6114.8
266261. 288751. 348766. 425290. 480550. 508210.
221559.8
3
9
6
8
6
5
7.00%
6.59%
6.92%
6.12%
5.77%
7.71%
6.68%
Returns on Debt
26.26%
17.37%
23.26%
18.29%
13.41%
16.85%
13.97%
Economic value
added
28729.2
1. Return on capital is less than the Cost of Capital indicating the company is not taking good
projects
2. Even though they are able to repay their debts as they are not paying enough returns to
shareholders. Those returns are diverted for paying debts and maintaining profits
3. Economic Value added is negative indicating the company is not performing goods when it
come to projects and company
4. The company need to take good projects for improving the value addition to company
5. The company is surviving because of name of reliance
Dividend Policy
(Million Rupees)
Net Income
Dividend per Share
Dividends
Dividend Payout Ratio
Price Per share
Dividend Yield
CY 2008
11782.1
6.3
1656.9
14.06%
590
1.07%
CY 2009
CY 2010
CY 2011
CY 2012
CY 2013
CY 2014
13532.3
7
1841
13.60%
1157
0.61%
15193.9
7.1
1867.3
12.29%
814
0.87%
15516.1
7.2
1893.6
12.20%
348
2.07%
15868.1
7.3
1919.9
12.10%
519
1.41%
22468.3
7.4
1946.2
8.66%
429
1.72%
19136.7
7.5
1972.5
10.31%
588
1.28%
Dividend Yield
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
CY 2008
CY 2009
CY 2010
CY 2011
CY 2012
CY 2013
CY 2014
1. Dividend Payout Ratio is on average constant level and is quite less because the company is
in growing stage and is exploiting the opportunities in infrastructure field for investment
2. Dividend yield is changing though the amount of dividends are on average at a constant level
3. Dividend yield is minimum in 2009 because of famous Recession due to which the economic
condition of market crashed affecting the share prices of Reliance infra too
4. It shoots up in 2011 because of various policies and investments announced in power sector
mainly of UMPP ,PPP in power plants and other sectors due to which positive sentiments in
the market shots its dividend yield
5. However it came down majorly last year because of various issues that power and
infrastructure sector faced like coal block scams, various permits and clearances issues,
negative sentiments in investment market regarding infrastructure sector hence building
negative image in markets.
FCFE
Debt Ratio
Net Income
Capex
Depreciation
Working Capital change
New Debt Issued
48.56%
1913.67
3635.4
534.8
1582.17
2623.77
FCFE
Dividends Paid
2263.504
19.72
0.87%
1. The amount of dividends paid are quite less just 0.87% of FCFE
2. The projects that company is taking are not good as EVA is ve and ROC is less than cost of
capital
3. After analysing all these facts Ill not believe on the policies of govt.
Valuation
Reliance Infra
Inputs
Normalized EBIT (before adjustments)
INR 3,878.00
Adjusted EBIT =
INR 3,578.79
INR 1,696.38
INR 3,772.70
INR 851.25
12.00%
35.00%
Current Revenues =
INR 19,033.60
-INR 1,001.87
INR 1,582.17
INR 21,980.71
INR 27,491.25
Invested Capital
INR 49,429.84
10
Growth Rate =
2.46%
Debt Ratio
48.55%
1.78
0.79
Riskfree rate =
6.57%
5.50%
3.30%
Cost of Debt =
8.30%
12.00%
35.00%
Return on Capital =
6.16%
Reinvestment Rate =
40.00%
Current
2.46%
2.46%
2.46%
2.46%
2.46%
Cumulated Growth
102.46%
104.99%
107.57%
110.22%
112.94%
Reinvestment Rate
40.00%
40.00%
40.00%
40.00%
40.00%
INR 3,044.48
INR 3,119.49
INR 3,196.34
INR 3,275.09
INR 3,355.78
INR 3,438.45
INR 2,921.45
INR 1,247.79
INR 1,278.54
INR 1,310.04
INR 1,342.31
INR 1,375.38
INR 1,582.17
-INR
1,459.14
INR 0.00
INR 0.00
INR 0.00
INR 0.00
INR 0.00
INR 1,871.69
INR 1,917.80
INR 1,965.05
INR 2,013.47
INR 2,063.07
Cost of Capital
Cumulated Cost of
Capital
12.38%
12.38%
12.38%
12.38%
12.38%
1.1238
1.2630
1.4194
1.5952
1.7927
Present Value
$1,665
$1,518
$1,384
$1,262
$1,151
10
3.28%
4.11%
4.93%
5.75%
6.57%
Terminal
Year
Cumulated Growth
116.65%
121.44%
127.42%
134.75%
143.60%
Reinvestment Rate
32.67%
INR
3,551.40
INR
1,160.33
25.34%
INR
3,697.23
18.02%
INR
3,879.41
10.69%
INR
4,102.43
3.36%
INR
4,371.96
INR
3,441.45
INR 937.06
INR 698.97
INR 438.55
INR 147.00
INR 115.72
INR 0.00
INR
2,391.07
INR 0.00
INR
2,760.17
INR 0.00
INR
3,180.44
INR 0.00
INR
3,663.88
INR 0.00
INR
4,224.95
INR 0.00
INR
3,325.73
Cost of Capital
Cumulated Cost of
Capital
12.38%
12.38%
12.38%
12.38%
12.38%
2.0147
2.2642
2.5446
2.8597
3.2138
Present Value
$1,187
$1,219
$1,250
$1,281
$1,315
6.57%
3.36%
INR 3,325.73
18.98%
51.45%
48.55%
12.38%
5.40%
INR 57,207.56
Valuation
Present Value of FCFF in high growth phase
INR 13,232.89
INR 17,800.40
INR 31,033.29
INR 611.48
Value of Firm
INR 31,644.77
INR 16,067.71
INR 116.12
INR 15,460.94
INR 0.00
INR 15,460.94
INR 587.87
INR 587.87
Points to Ponder
1. Working capital is taken zero because the working capital is negative though the firm can
generate positive cash flows even if working capital is negative but in long run it may prove
dangerous
2. Company enjoys high tax holidays and tax exemptions given in infra- sector thus the
effective tax rate for past 5 years is 12% quite less
3. On valuation the share price valued at 587 Re and it is trading currently at 593 re