TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS MODELING AND EVALUATION

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS MODELING AND EVALUATION

3.3

commercial packages provide a necessary modeling suite, models are developed to reflect
properly local conditions, the objective of the analysis, and available data. The set of equations is developed on a case-by-case basis.
Econometric models are the high end of demand modeling; extrapolation methods including trends of growth rate method are the low end. According to the growth rate method,
future volumes are predicted by multiplying current volumes with growth factors (growth
method for highways is mentioned in Robertson 2000). Separate growth factors are developed for different regions, transportation modes, and types of transportation facilities (road
category, airport category, etc.). This method is not able to reflect unusual changes either in
the economy or in the land use.
The third category of demand models is traffic generation models (for example, in Meyer
and Miller 1984). These models require future land use and household characteristics to be
known because they link the number of trip ends in a traffic zone with particular zonal
characteristics, such as the number of workplaces and the number of households. These
models include the land use and the economic impact through zonal characteristics required
as an input.
3.2.2 Network Models

Econometric models can and should consider all major transportation modes (air, rail, highway, pipes, and water). On the other hand, the network models have typically been developed
to deal with certain transportation modes. The interactions between the transportation modes
are presently attracting the interest of researchers who are trying to incorporate transportation
intermodalism into regional planning. The primary focus of highway network modeling is
on the connectivity of the transportation infrastructure and on the travelers path choices
across the network and of transportation modes (for example, highways with public transit
routes). Modeling frameworks for travel choices include deterministic user equilibrium, stochastic user equilibrium, system optimum performance, and mixed flows (Sheffi 1985). Some
models consider static equilibrium applied to hourly or daily network operations, while other
models assign travelers to paths dynamically in short intervals (Peeta and Ziliaskopoulos
2001). Network models require travel demand to be known as a table of one-way flows
between all possible pairs of network nodes or traffic zones.
Another large class of network models is logistic models that optimize transportation of
commodities. These models are focused on routing commodities across a multimodal transportation network to minimize transportation costs and meet time constraints. Logistic models are of particular interest to private transportation companies and to large manufacturers
that use supply-chain analysis to reduce transportation and storage costs. A good introduction
to the logistics modeling and practice can be found in Fredendall, Hill, and Hill (2000).
3.2.3 Traffic Models

With a few exceptions, network models represent transportation facilities in a quite simplified
manner through the analytical relationships between traffic demand and travel cost components; for example, the traditional BPR function (Bureau of Public Roads 1964). These
simplifications do not allow for designing facilities and may raise concerns about the accuracy of the simplified demand-cost relationships. To allow design applications through detail
analyses of traffic operations at these facilities, a group of models is available, here called
traffic models. They incorporate the impact of facility geometric characteristics and traffic
control on speed, delay, travel time, queue, etc. One of the best known depositories of traffic
models for design and traffic analysis is the Highway Capacity Manual (Transportation Research Board 2000). These models are transportation facility-specific and require traffic demand, geometry, and control characteristics of the facility to be known.

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