Korea ICT Top 10 Predictions for 2014

Study Overview

Every year since 2008, National IT Industry Promotion

Agency (a.k.a. NIPA) has announced the top 10 issues for
the following year that would be highly influential for the ICT
industry at home and abroad. We also discovered the ICT top
10 issues for 2014 this year.
Our research methodologies are as follows. First, industry
experts selected a group of issues anticipated for 2014. Then,
surveys are conducted on the people in the domestic ICT industry to determine the top 10 issues. This years survey was
conducted for 11 days, from August 21 to September 2, participated by 556 people.

Ecomonic Outlook

Economic Outlook for 2014

for 2014 Korean ICT Industry

Prior to the anticipation of ten ICT issues, the respondents were asked
about the economic outlook for the ICT industry for 2014. As a result,
51 percent of the survey respondents said, It will be similar to
this year. The response It will be better than this year observed a
similar response (37%) to that of the previous year (36%), and a lower
response (12%) for the response It will be worse than this year, compared to the year before (20%). The survey, therefore, illustrates that
next year, the ICT industry will maintain performance similar to this
year, while the respondents anticipate a slightly improved performance

Better vs. Worse

over that of the current year.

The most anticipated industries were the Internet, content,
and information security sectors, followed by mobile phone, network equipment, SW, and IT services. The least anticipated sector,
in terms of economy, was the hardware industry, including computing
hardware and home appliances.

Privacy is another issue in the social

industry. A law that protects privacy

2014 Top 10 Issues

that will impact the ICT industry

The 10th : Social 2.0 - Social curation and
SNS privacy
Living in the era of Web 2.0, we consume and
produce information at the same time. A large
amount of information, incomparable to the
past, is being produced by a variety of producers. Distinguishing the right information for the
right person among vast information has become
more imperative than possession of information.
Curation is a new concept emerging in the industry. Curation is a notion derived from the word
curator who arranges exhibitions at art galleries
or museums; this also refers to content discovery for reprocessing and sharing. A service called
Social Curation has recently released, which
offers a curation services by utilizing social media and collective intelligence. Those services are
moving to the next level, not only offering con-

tent, but also commercial transaction. Pinterest,

Snapguide, and Flipboard are famous overseas
services, while Interest Me is a domestic service.

on the Internet, so called right to be

forgotten is being made not only in
Korea, but also EU, and the U.S. Privacy protection technologies are also
attracting attention in the social industry. Closed SNS is the first example.
Opened SNS, such as Facebook or
Twitter, is not safe from office superiors and family members. This has
brought attention to closed SNS that
allows users to build a relationship
among acquaintances. Band (Naver)
and Kakao Group (Kakao) are typical
services in Korea, and Pass abroad.
The second example of privacy technology is Self-destructive Information.
Inspector Gadget, a classic cartoon,
shows bombing scenes where notes
with missions or bags set off self-destruction a few seconds later a mission
is given. Likewise, digital information
can be automatically deleted according
to settings. Technologies that introduced self-destruction of information
are gaining popularity. SnapChat, an
image sharing SNS in the U.S., has
become popular among teenagers as
it allows images to be viewed only for
10 seconds without storing it on mobile
devices.

The 9th : Next-gen Components - 3D Semiconductor, flexible display

3D semiconductor and flexible display are the buzz words in the ICT parts
sector.
Smaller chips, the semiconductor industrys formula for success to maintain
economic edge is no longer inviable because of technology limitations. The
essential exposure technique for micro-fine process is revealing its limitations.
EUV, next generation lithography is under development by ASML in Netherlands, with delay in the introduction due to poor technical completion. Furthermore, the higher cost of the equipment cannot ensure the kind of economic
efficiency like the past, even if the technology is introduced. The size of wafers
can be expanded to 450mm but a large-scale investment is inevitable.
Samsung Electronics commercialized a 3D NAND flash memory dubbed V
NAND memory. Multiple pieces of semiconductor chips are stacked vertically
to optimize the storage capacity of semiconductors without micro-fine process.
The development of 3D NAND flash memory is anticipated to advance the
popularization of affordable Solid State Drive (SSD).
Flexible OLED is an issue in the display industry. The display industry is facing stagnation in growth not because of technicality, but cultural limitations.
Realistically, the demand for the optimum size for home TV is around 40-inch,
meaning the demand for a large 60-inch display is very low. Hence, the display
industry will need to shift its focus from size to diversity competition. Behind the core technology for display diversity is flexible OLED.
A flexible display can be implemented using many techniques, including LCD,
while the OLED technique is most suitable. Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics have announced Galaxy Round and G-Flex, flexible display smartphones for the first time in the world. The technology is expected to be introduced to other devices, such as smart watches in the following year. However,
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a simple curved screen will make it difficult to create a new value and providers should ponder about how they can use a flexible display to boost consumer
value.

The 8th : Next-generation TV and broadcasting service

We are past the time where SD-quality TV programs were aired through the
CRT screen, and are living in an age of full-HD quality programs. People will
have access to UHD or 8K quality high-definition TV programs via LCD/OLED or
hologram screens.
The driving forces of the next-generation TV are UHD TV and OLED TV.
UHD TV is an ultra-high resolution format that doubled the horizontal-vertical
resolution of the current Full-HD TV. An OLED TV employs an OLED display
that can be manufactured lighter than LCD with high color reproduction and a
faster response speed. However, the initial next-generation TV market is expected to be led by the UHD LCD TV because compared to LCD, the OLED
display is about 8 to 17 more expensive with lower production yield.

UHD-TV broadcasting, a next-generation broadcasting

service, will be commercialized in Korea next year. A cable
TV service is planning to be operated from 2014 and IPTV/
satellite/terrestrial broadcasting from 2015.

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The 7th : The evolution of cloud computing - Hybrid, OpenStack

Cloud computing technology continues to make the top ten issues every year
since its debut in the ICT industry five years ago. Some of the trends about
the latest cloud computing technology are as follows:
First, its entry to the full-scale introduction period. The cloud technology is in
the introduction period in earnest. The hype cycle by Gartner, a market research firm, confirms a rapid growth of the cloud since 2012.
Second, the expansion of the clouds diversity. In general, cloud services are
classified into IaaS/PaaS/SaaS. Lately, subdivided and various cloud services
have appeared under the three services.
Third, the debut of a hybrid cloud. The public cloud has appeared in advance
as a cloud computing service, but the private cloud service is a general trend
at the moment. These days, a strong preference is shown for a hybrid cloud
service that combines the public cloud service and private cloud service. The
cloud services implanted by public and private have their own distinctive features, and they are seen ultimately as integration, rather than a separate existence.
Fourth, OpenStack, an open source cloud management platform. A cloud
management platform or a cloud OS is required to build a private cloud environment. While some commercial products are already available in the market, such vCLOUD of VMware and Windows Server 2012 R2 of Microsoft, open
source products, e.g. OpenStack and CloudStack, are currently drawing attention.

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The 6th : Proliferation of Hyperconnectivity/Internet of Things

In the past half century, the revo-

We are exposed to various terminologies, e.g. Ubiquitous, M2M, Internet

lutionary events in the ICT indus-

of Things, Hyperconnectivity, and Internet of Everything through the me-

try can be broken into three main

dia. The meaning and aim of these terminologies slightly vary, but share the

items.

common goal. They are aimed at connecting things, data, and processes that

First, the revolution of personal

were unfeasible in the past.

computer. Computers that were accessible only by experts have become popular by PC and have rapidly expanded by IBM PC as well as
Microsoft Windows.
Second, the Internet revolution.
We are able to use much more
information and a variety of services by connecting computers from
around the world that previously
existed separately.
Third, the smartphone revolution.
The revolution triggered by Apples
iPhone is expanding to a variety of
devices, including TV and automobiles.
Now industry experts are saying that a fourth revolution is upon
us. That is the Internet of Things,
which gives intelligence and con14

nectivity to things that used to be

unfeasible heretofore.

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The Internet of Things is not a

The Internet of Things is also used

story about the future. There are

for the waste collection system in

increasingly large numbers of exam-

the city. The three domestic tele-

ples around us that use the Internet

communication providers are pro-

of Things.

viding a smart food-waste bin in the

SK Telecom, a korean telecom op-

wake of the food waste volume-rate

erator, has launched Smart Farm,

system enforced by the Ministry of

a trial service in the agricultural

Environment since June 2013, and

sector in Jeju Island; the remotely

additional 150,000 bins will be in-

operated program closes and opens

stalled nationwide.

vinyl greenhouse, supply water,

The Internet of Things is also rap-

runs heaters, spray pesticides, and

idly proliferating in the traffic-relat-

enables security management.

ed field. The most common example

Jaeil Livestock, the nations larg-

is Hi-Pass at freeway tollgates. Malls

est pig farm, implanted RFID chips

and hypermarkets are introducing

inside pig ears to control feed,

a system that informs parking lot

ventilation, and temperature of the

information, such as available park-

pigsty, thereby improving productiv-

ing spots and locations.

ity automatically.

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The 5th : LTE advanced service

For the first time in the world, SK Telecom released
the LTE advanced service on June 26, 2013, followed
by LG U-Plus on July 18.
The LTE advanced service is a technology that kicks
of the era of 4G mobile communication that exceeds
LTE, the 3.9-generation mobile communication technology. The core technology is the carrier aggregation that combines several LTE frequency bands to
use them as a single band.
KT and SK Telecom initiated the broadband LTE
service, which doubled the LTE frequency band, following the frequency auction that ended in August.
A new broadband LTE advanced service that combined with broadband LTE and other LTE frequencies,
namely broadband LTE advanced, is expected to be
launched next year.

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The 4th : Increase of New Security Threat

This year, two large security accidents have occurred one after another,
making the headlines. The 3.20 cyber terror against financial corporations
and the press shook the country in March 20, followed by the 6.25 cyber
terror against the Blue House, national agencies, and the media on June
25.

A research on the recent chain of personal information leakage and security

accidents since 2008 has one thing in common; that the perpetrator is APT
- Advanced Persistent Attack. APT is an attack orchestrated by an organization with a specific purpose; it uses a variety of ICT technologies to continuously collect information of a single target to find weak points, thereby causing damage. Hackings, in general, directly attack the core resources, e.g.
an unspecified number of servers by using universal tools with the purpose
of displaying their computer skills or obtaining economic gains. On the contrary, APT is carried out by highly trained experts with political, military, and
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economic objectives targeting a small number of specific objects by using

specialized custom tools; the threat is characterized by evasion technology,
rather than a direct attack, via collaboration with small companies.

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The 3rd : 3D printing and manufacturing robots

In schools, we learned that an industry is classified into primary, secondary, and tertiary industries; the more a country is advanced, the lower the
proportion of the primary and secondary industries and the higher the
proportion of the tertiary industry. If so, could it be interpreted that manufacturing, the secondary industry, is doomed to go downhill?
According to the world history, countries with strong manufacturing
gained the world economic supremacy. The UK has risen as the worlds
biggest economic country with the industrial revolution whilst the U.S. became a superpower country after the World Wars I and II. Japan and Germany overcame defeat, developed competitiveness, and joined the ranks
of developed countries in the 1980s. Today, China has the worlds economic hegemony. These countries share one thing in common they were
manufacturing power countries at each times.
Advanced countries that witnessed the recent financial crisis in the U.S.
and Europe, are paying attention to Germany. The conclusion of research
on Germany is that a country with a strong manufacturing foundation will
not be affected by economic crisis. Taking this consideration into account,
advanced countries are churning out measures to strengthen their manufacturing edge. Advanced countries are making efforts to boost manufacturing competitiveness by using their cutting-edge technologies to compete
with emerging countries. A typical technology is 3D printing and robots
specializing in manufacturing.

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Another example of manufacturing innovation is robots specializing in

manufacturing. Baxter, developed by Rethink Robotics in the U.S. is a good
example. General industrial robots are expensive and lack in flexibility
because they are optimized for repeating programmed movements only.
Robots specializing manufacturing, however, are very affordable with excellent learning ability; they can learn new movements and are operable in
just one hour. It is an innovative technology for advanced countries to win
back low-wage jobs dominated by emerging countries, once the speed and
accuracy are improved.

3D printing can be interpreted as a laminated fabrication technique that

uses a 3D printer, which makes a physical shape using 3D digital modeling. In making of a physical shape, a subtractive processing is still largely
used. This method requires expensive molding design, a significant loss
in materials, not to mention stocking expenses for pre-manufacturing.
However, 3D printing that uses additive processing has nearly no material
loss, no molding design, no stocking expenses as products are made to
order.
With the 3D printing technology, advanced countries are aiming at customized products in small quantities, instead of mass production of stan24

dard products. Affordable products that meet diverse needs of customers

are expected to create a new value in markets.

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The 2nd : Increasing use of Big Data

Todays society and economy are facing various
difficulties. Among them are declined productivity
and economic growth attributed to aging population and low-birth rate. A new growth engine
would be necessary to tackle with such problems,
but improving the current inefficiencies is equally
important.
Big Data is a typical technique that enhances
inefficiencies and reduces various social and economic costs. In the past, people depended on
their own experience, intuition, or statistical inference for making decisions, largely due to inadequate information. Today, advanced technologies enable people to obtain/analyze all data and
no need to rely on statistical inference. Errors and
uncertainty can be dramatically reduced by Big
Data analysis.
It appears that the government and public agencies are likely to lead the initial use of Big Data.
In addition to the vast amount of quality data, the
government that is working on opening the public
data is likely to make the best use of it. Big Data
is taking a critical role in the government 3.0
initiative announced by the government early this
year.
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The 1st : The beginning of wearable computer Era

Googles announcement of Google Glasses, a smart glasses and Galaxy
Gear, a smart watch by Samsung Electronics have sparked curiosity about
wearable devices. With the growth of smartphones and tablets slowing
down, companies are turning to wearable devices. Wearable devices will be
all the fever once again when Apple releases their gadgets in the future.
However, a value proposition is essential to boost the provision of wearable devices. Most functions of wearable devices out on the market are not
new to smartphone users. It makes no sense for consumers to pay extra
for wearable devices that are merely accessories. Invasion of privacy is the
biggest obstacle for smart glasses although a certain distinctive features
can be implemented. Hence, whether new consumer needs can be induced
will make or break wearable devices.

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 NIPA 2013
This publication (and any extract from it) must not be copied, redistributed or placed on any website
without NIPAs prior written consent.