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INFERENTIAL STATISTICS
Homework No. 2
Final Term
Engineering Probability and Statistics
Prepared by
Alexa Marrie Bautista
T3A
Submitted to
Engr. Marife A. Rosales
Instructor
INFERENTIAL STATISTICS
Most researchers have limited access to the phenomena they study, especially
behavioral phenomena. As a result, researchers use procedures that allow them to
interpret or infer the meaning of data. These procedures are called inferential statistics.
statistic.
STATISTICAL TESTING
In general, a statistical test involves four elements to a statistical test:
Null Hypothesis (written as H0): The "tried and true situation", or "the status
quo", or "innocent until proven guilty"
Alternative Hypothesis (written as Ha): This is what you suspect (or hope)
is really true, the new situation, "guilty" - in general it is the opposite of the null
hypothesis
Rejection Region: Do we reject the null hypothesis (and therefore accept the
alternative), or do we declare our test inconclusive, and if we do decide to reject
the null hypothesis, what is the probability that our decision is incorrect.
WHAT IS A HYPOTHESIS?
Hypothesis is a statement about the value of a population parameter developed
for the purpose of testing.
Examples of hypotheses, or statements, made about a population parameter are:
o
The mean monthly income from all sources for systems analysts is
$3,625.
The decision rules state the conditions under which the null hypothesis will
be accepted or rejected. The critical value for the test-statistic is determined by
the level of significance. The critical value is the value that divides the non-reject
region from the reject region.
4. Compute the appropriate test statistic and make the decision.
When we use the z-statistic, we use the formula
Compare the computed test statistic with critical value. If the computed
value is within the rejection region(s), we reject the null hypothesis; otherwise, we
do not reject the null hypothesis.
5. Interpret the decision.
Based on the decision in Step 4, we state a conclusion in the context of
the original problem. Final conclusions always fall on any of these two
options: either reject
the
null
hypothesis or
we declare
the
test
invalid.
Rejecting the null hypothesis when in fact it is true is called a Type I Error. That's exactly the error we will be computing in the procedure
above when we reject the null hypothesis. It should, of course, be small so
that we can be confident in our decision to reject the null hypothesis.
Accepting the null hypothesis when in fact it is false is called a Type II Error. This type of probability is not covered by our procedure (which is
why we will never accept the null hypothesis, we rather declare our test
inconclusive if necessary)
EXAMPLE
PROBLEM
skilled in their
Step 3. Use z-test because is known and the sample (n=100) is a large
sample (n > 30).
Recall that in the normal curve, Z=0 corresponds to the mean. Z=1, 2,
3 represent 1, 2, and 3 standard deviations above the mean; the negatives
are below the mean.
Thus, we reject the null hypothesis if z < -1.645. And accept the alternate
hypothesis that the students in the school sampled are less skilled in math
aptitude than those in district A.
Since the computed z = -4.938 < -1.645 (critical z value), we reject the
null hypothesis that the students in the school are not less skilled in
mathematical ability. Thus, we conclude that the sixth graders in the school
are less skilled in mathematical ability than the sixth graders in District A.
REFERENCES
o http://cfcc.edu/faculty/cmoore/0801-HypothesisTests.pdf
o http://pirate.shu.edu/~wachsmut/Teaching/MATH1101/Testing/test.html
o http://www.sagepub.com/upm-data/40006_Chapter1.pdf