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Buy
Target Price:
Price:
THB9.00
THB6.90
Macro
Risks
Growth
Value
173
11.3
162
10.3
150
9.3
139
8.3
127
7.3
116
6.3
104
5.3
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
93
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Source: Bloomberg
9.81m/0.30m
30.4
30.4
5.90 - 11.4
45
Shareholders (%)
Mr. Kreangsak
Suviwattanachai
Mr. Wanchai Punwichien
THAI NVDR
35.8
8.9
6.7
Shariah compliant
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
4,313
4,014
6,715
10,619
14,047
123
(228)
587
663
821
123
(228)
587
663
821
(17.4)
(286.4)
12.9
23.9
0.20
(0.35)
0.81
0.85
1.05
DPS (THB)
0.06
0.00
0.06
0.16
0.21
35.2
8.5
8.1
6.6
P/B (x)
2.75
2.24
2.07
1.71
1.42
kannika.si@rhbgroup.com
P/CF (x)
5.7
27.2
3.7
4.4
5.2
0.9
0.0
0.9
2.3
3.1
EV/EBITDA (x)
9.6
43.2
5.8
4.5
3.7
chun.ph@rhbgroup.com
7.8
(12.6)
25.1
23.1
23.7
66.7
44.7
87.8
76.3
53.4
0.0
0.0
na
na
.
2
0
.
3
0
0
.
3
0
0
We initiate coverage on Unique with BUY and THB9.00/share TP, based .
0
on a 10.5x FY14 P/E. We like its strong order book, which could boost 0
earnings by 13% y-o-y to THB663m in FY14 and 24% y-o-y to THB821m 0
in FY15. Once market sentiment turns favorable, Unique plans to list its
two subsidiaries, UNIQ Foundation and UNIQ Tunneling, as well as
increase its capital. This will enable it to bid for larger projects going
forward.
Apr-13
Vol m
Price Close
12.3
Table Of Contents
Valuation And Recommendation
Shareholder Structure
Financial Analysis
10
Due to the current political stalemate, Uniques share price has fallen closer to our
distressed valuation of THB6.40 (around its 5-year mean P/E). At this price, we
believe the share has already factored in most of the downside from the potential
delays in government projects.
We believe the counter can trade at a premium again after the political situation
shows signs of resolution. We value it at THB9.00/share based on P/E valuation. Our
THB9.00 TP is pegged to a P/E of 10.5x, which is at a 25% discount to its 5-year
trailing 12-month mean P/E. We deem this a reasonable multiple given: i) its smaller
size (small cap), ii) low liquidity in the stock and iii) under-owned stock as there is no
analyst coverage. However, we expect the company to continue receiving larger
government infrastructure projects as we enter into what we believe to be the peak of
Thailands construction/investment cycle over the next five years.
The current political stalemate has little bearing on our earnings forecast as we only
include the projects on hand, which will be Uniques key earnings driver over the next
2-3 years.
As at end of 2013, Uniques sale orderbook ratio stood at 4.4x, which is the highest
among its competitors. Given its current strong orderbook and a long list of future
potential projects, we recommend accumulating the stock on share price weakness.
We initiate our coverage with a BUY recommendation and a TP of THB 9.00/share.
Figure 1: Trailing 12-month P/E band chart
(x)
45
near-distressed valuations.
35
+2 sd: 28.1x
25
+1 sd: 21.1x
Mean: 14.1x
15
-1 sd: 7.1x
Mar-08
-5
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
As at end-
5
4
3
2
1
0
UNIQ
CK
STEC
2014F
28.3
17.1
24.6
8.2
19.6
2015F
21.9
15.9
20.4
6.6
16.2
P/BV
2014F
1.7
3.2
1.4
1.7
2.1
2015F
1.6
2.9
1.4
1.4
1.8
EV/EBITDA
2014F
2015F
18.6
17.0
8.5
7.9
9.2
8.6
4.9
4.0
10.3
9.4
ROE (%)
2014F
2015F
6.6
7.6
19.6
19.7
6.5
7.4
21.1
21.6
13.5
14.1
Source: Bloomberg
Unique expects to list two of its subsidiaries, UNIQ Foundation (a bored piling
company) and UNIQ Tunneling (a pipe jacking company) within the next few years.
two subsidiaries, UNIQ Foundation and UNIQ
Currently, UNIQ Foundation and UNIQ Tunneling account for 4 % and 1% of the
Tunneling.
companys construction revenue respectively. The company currently holds 99.9% of
the shares in each subsidiary. Based on the current market valuations for Thai
construction companies in general, a back-of-the envelope calculation puts the listing
of the two companies in the range of THB300-500m based on 8x P/E on the
subsidiaries earnings, depending on market valuation sentiment at the time of listing.
We have not included this in our valuation as details regarding the listing of the two
companies remain uncertain at the moment.
Meanwhile, Unique also expects to increase its capital from THB780m (par
THB1/share) to THB1bn (par THB1/share), which will enable it to bid for larger
projects going forward. The capital increase implies a potential share dilution of 28%.
The details, timing and pricing of the capital increase remain uncertain at the
moment.
Shareholders Structure
Mr. Kreangsak Suviwattanachai, CEO of the
(%)
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
UNIQ
CK
STEC
CK
23%
Others
29%
UNIQ
5%
STEC
15%
ITD
28%
cts
Uniques orderbook jumped significantly in
2013 as a result of MRT Red Line Contract
, which make up % of the companys
current orderbook.
Current orderbook
Uniques orderbook jumped significantly in 2011 and 2013 as a result of two major
projects signed the Blue Line Extension Project Contract 3 (THB11.8bn) and MRT
Red Line Contract 1 (THB29.8bn).
As at end-2
, the companys orderbook was at a record high THB30bn, accounting
for three years of the companys construction revenue. This was a result of MRT Red
Line Contract 1, which accounted for 83% of its orderbook.
The company records sales revenue by percentage of completion. MRT Red Line
Contract 1 and Blue Line Extension Project Contract 3 should allow the company to
book sales totaling THB29bn over the next three years. We forecast a FY14 revenue
of THB10bn, with MRT Red Line Contract 1 and Blue Line Extension Project Contract
3 accounting for 80% and 16% respectively.
30
30
26
25
20
16
15
12
9
10
6
5
7
4
0
2014F
Project value
(THB bn)
Remaining Value
(THB bn)
30
25
12
n.a.
Others
Source: Company data
In 2014, Unique plans to bid for Dark Green Line MRTA (Saphan Mai- Ku Kott)
project worth THB26bn, two double-track projects worth THB10bn, and
Suvarnabhumi Airport Phase II project worth THB48bn. Given its historical track
record, we believe it will win at least 5% or c. THB5bn of the total bidding project
value in 2014, which in turn, should support Uniques earnings during 2015-2018.
The company will submit its bids for Dark Green Line MRTA and Suvarnabhumi
Phase II projects in April and July respectively. We expect the bidding outcome for
both projects to be announced in August-October.
Note that for Dark Green Line MRTA, government approval will be required after the
bidding outcome. However, Suvarnabhumi Airport Phase II project does not require
cabinet approval since it was already approved by the cabinet and the National
Economic and Social Development Board in 2010.
Double Track
Suvarnabhumi Airport
(Phase II)
Value
(THBm)
14,021
6,126
3,709
Contract 4: Trackworks
Contract 1: Double Track (Cha Choeng Sao - Wihan
Daeng), Chord Lines
Contract 2: Double Track (Wihan Daeng - Buu Yai
Section), Railway Tunnel
Contract 1: Extension on the west-side of the existing
Passenger Terminal Building
2,609
10,184
621
39,046
7,087
2,565
Total Value
85,968
Financial Analysis
Construction revenue to grow by 58%
y-o-y in 2014, supported by revenue
recognition from MRT Red Line Contract 1.
2015F
(2)
Revenue
EBITDA
Gross profit margin jumped to 19% in FY13 from 10% in FY12. This was mainly due
to a trade discount in construction material and machinery, which was the result of
heavy working capital investment in MRT Red Line Contract 1 and Blue Line
Extension Contract 3 projects. We forecast gross profit margin to decline to its
normalised level of 15-16% in FY14 and FY15. Additionally, cement and steel prices
are expected to remain stable in FY14. In anticipation of the passing of the THB2trn
Infrastructure Bill in FY13, the producers overproduced construction materials,
resulting in an oversupply.
Figure 13: Earnings outlook
(%)
25
20
15
10
5
0
2014F
2015F
-5
-10
Gross margin
EBITDA margin
10
Core earnings are expected to come in at THB 663m (13% y-o-y) in FY14 and THB
821m (24% y-o-y) in FY15. We believe the current political stalemate has minimal
impact on our earnings forecast as Unique has already signed and secured most of
the revenue from MRT Red Line Contract 1 and Blue Line Extension Contract 3
projects in FY14. There is limited downside risk to our earnings forecast.
Figure 14: Interest bearing debt and financial debt
(THB bn)
(x)
2.0
1.8
1.6
3
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
1
0.2
0.0
2014F
Financial Debt (LHS)
2015F
The companys interest bearing debt increased significantly to 1.1x in 2013 from 0.5x
in 2012 as a result of significant investment in construction equipment and machinery
for MRT Red Line Contract 1 and Blue Line Extension Contract 3 projects. However,
Uniques current interest bearing ratio of 1.1x is still relatively low compared with the
sector average of more than 2x. Moreover, its interest coverage ratio was at 6.2x in
FY13, compared with 3x in FY11. We are confident that the company will be able to
repay its debts and be ready for new projects.
We expect Uniques interest bearing debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio to decline slightly to
1.0x and 0.8x in FY14 and FY15 as the company will repay its debts after the
completion of the Blue Line Extension Contract 3 project. Note that most of its debts
are short-term project financing, which will be fully repaid after the completion of the
projects. At the moment, we believe that the company is not likely to make any
significant investment in construction machinery since it has already invested in
major construction machinery and equipment for current and future potential projects
in FY13.
The companys cash flow from operations is expected to be positive and remain at
the same level in FY14 and FY15 as it continues to recognise revenue from the
construction of Red Line Contract 1 project. Capital expenditure is expected to be
minimal in FY14 and FY15 since the company has already invested in major
construction machinery and equipment in FY13. Hence, we believe the company can
generate enough cash internally to finance its projects in FY14 and FY15.
Figure 15: Uniques cash flow
2011
2012
2013
2014F
2015F
CFO
759
164
1,365
1,214
1,033
CFI
(521)
(232)
(2,915)
(1,200)
(500)
FCF
404
(51)
(1,338)
14
533
CFF
(513)
19
1,762
171
(353)
196
147
359
544
724
Ending cash
11
Financial Exhibits
Profit & Loss (THBm)
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14F
Total turnover
4,313
4,014
6,715
10,619
14,047
Cost of sales
(3,664)
(3,608)
(5,437)
(8,920)
(11,940)
1,279
1,699
2,107
Gross profit
Dec-15F
649
406
(370)
(479)
(484)
(690)
(19)
(18)
(21)
(22)
Operating profit
260
(91)
773
987
1,172
1,103
1,550
1,787
Operating EBITDA
Depreciation of fixed assets
Operating EBIT
Other recurring income
448
106
(188)
(197)
(330)
(563)
260
(91)
773
987
(913)
(23)
(616)
1,172
22
19
99
53
70
Interest expense
(92)
(76)
(140)
(212)
(216)
Pre-tax profit
190
(148)
732
828
Taxation
(67)
(80)
(146)
(166)
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)
Minority interests
1,026
(205)
(0)
123
(228)
587
663
821
123
(228)
587
663
821
123
(228)
587
663
821
Dec-13
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Operating profit
Dec-11
260
Dec-12
(91)
773
987
1,172
188
197
330
563
616
335
(98)
509
52
(345)
136
313
38
919
320
1,651
Interest paid
(92)
(76)
(140)
(212)
Tax paid
(67)
(80)
(146)
(166)
759
164
1,365
1,214
Capex
(355)
(215)
(2,703)
(1,200)
(165)
(18)
(211)
(521)
(232)
(2,915)
(1,200)
(500)
(125)
(164)
Dividends paid
(38)
(47)
(37)
191
(439)
(172)
1,808
Increase in debt
Other financing cash flow
Cash flow from financing activities
Cash at beginning of period
Total cash generated
Implied cash at end of period
(0)
(11)
1,591
(0)
296
-
12
1,454
(216)
(205)
1,033
(500)
-
(188)
-
(513)
19
1,762
171
(353)
470
196
147
359
544
(274)
(49)
212
185
180
196
147
359
544
724
12
Financial Exhibits
Balance Sheet (THBm)
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14F
196
147
592
776
957
Inventories
1,337
542
556
892
1,433
Accounts receivable
1,974
3,372
6,713
9,663
12,783
550
290
479
584
773
4,057
4,351
8,339
11,915
15,945
Dec-15F
382
360
394
467
501
1,219
1,368
3,753
4,390
4,274
Intangible assets
44
80
126
190
248
1,648
1,812
4,278
5,051
5,028
Total assets
5,705
6,163
12,617
16,967
20,973
Short-term debt
766
687
1,478
1,694
1,468
Accounts payable
1,648
1,706
3,223
4,460
5,970
1,121
1,186
3,773
6,081
8,094
3,534
3,579
8,473
12,235
15,532
476
382
1,400
1,480
1,517
Other liabilities
126
137
139
110
125
603
519
1,540
1,590
1,642
17,174
Total liabilities
4,137
4,098
10,013
13,824
Share capital
671
780
780
780
780
803
1,191
1,731
2,269
2,925
Other reserves
94
94
94
94
94
1,568
2,064
2,604
3,142
3,799
Minority interests
Other equity
(0)
Total equity
1,569
2,064
2,604
3,142
3,799
5,705
6,163
12,617
16,967
20,973
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
14.5
(6.9)
67.3
58.1
32.3
(16.5)
(135.1)
0.0
27.6
18.7
(17.4)
(286.4)
0.0
12.9
23.9
(17.4)
(279.8)
0.0
5.1
23.9
(0.8)
22.6
8.6
20.7
20.9
6.0
(2.3)
11.5
9.3
8.3
2.8
(5.7)
8.7
6.2
5.8
2.2
(3.8)
6.2
4.5
4.3
7.8
(12.6)
25.1
23.1
23.7
66.7
44.7
87.8
76.3
53.4
DPS
0.06
0.00
0.06
0.16
0.21
1.21
0.25
1.88
1.56
1.33
Shareholders' equity
13
SWOT Analysis
One of the leading contractors in Thailand
Political
impasse which
could potentially
delay
construction
projects
Competition
from
international
contractors
Bidding for
MRTA Dark
Green Line
project in April
Bidding for
Suvarnabhumi
Airport Phase II
project in July
1,950%
120
1,600%
100
1,250%
20
-150%
-500%
Jan-15
200%
Jan-14
550%
40
Jan-13
60
Jan-12
900%
Jan-11
80
2.5
23%
2.0
15%
1.5
8%
1.0
0%
0.5
-8%
0.0
-15%
Jan-15
2,300%
140
30%
Jan-14
160
3.0
Jan-13
2,650%
Jan-12
3,000%
180
Jan-11
200
Company Profile
Unique is one of the leading construction companies in Thailand. The company's expertise lies in the construction of medium to large
public utility construction which requires expertise in the management of projects and advanced technologies.
14
Recommendation Chart
Price Close
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
Apr-09
Jul-10
Oct-11
Jan-13
Recommendation
2014-04-10
15
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9999
are covered in the report. This report is therefore classified as a non-independent
Fax : +(66) 2 108 0999
As of 9 April 2014, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries, including DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd, do not have proprietary positions
in the subject companies, except for:
a)
As of 9 April 2014, none of the analysts who covered the stock in this report has an interest in the subject companies covered in this report, except for:
a) Unique Engineering & Construction
DMG & Partners Research Pte. Ltd. (Reg. No. 200808705N)
17
Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Corporate Governance Report Rating 2013
ADVANC
AOT
ASIMAR
BAFS
BANPU
BAY
BBL
2S
ACAP
AF
AHC
AIT
AKP
AMANAH
AMARIN
AMATA
AP
APCO
APCS
ASIA
ASK
ASP
BCP
BECL
BKI
BROOK
BTS
CIMB
CK
CPF
CPN
CSL
DRT
DTAC
EASTW
EGCO
AYUD
BEC
BFIT
BH
BIGC
BJC
BLA
BMCL
BWG
CCET
CENTEL
CFRESH
CGS
CHOW
CM
ERW
GRAMMY
HANA
HEMRAJ
ICC
INTUCH
IRPC
CNT
CPALL
CSC
DCC
DELTA
DTC
ECL
EE
EIC
ESSO
FE
FORTH
GBX
GC
GFPT
IVL
KBANK
KKP
KTB
LPN
MCOT
MINT
GL
GLOW
GOLD
GSTEL
GUNKUL
HMPRO
HTC
IFEC
INET
ITD
JAS
JUBILE
KBS
KCE
KGI
NKI
NOBLE
PAP
PG
PHOL
PR
PRANDA
KKC
KSL
KWC
L&E
LANNA
LH
LHBANK
LHK
LIVE
LOXLEY
LRH
LST
MACO
MAJOR
MAKRO
PS
PSL
PTT
PTTEP
PTTGC
QH
RATCH
MBK
MBKET
MFC
MFEC
MODERN
MTI
NBC
NCH
NINE
NMG
NSI
NWR
OCC
OFM
OGC
ROBINS
RS
S&J
SAMART
SAMTEL
SAT
SC
OISHI
PB
PDI
PE
PF
PJW
PM
PPM
PPP
PREB
PRG
PT
PYLON
QTC
RASA
SCB
SCC
SCSMG
SE-ED
SIM
SIS
SITHAI
SABINA
SAMCO
SCCC
SCG
SEAFCO
SFP
SIAM
SINGER
SIRI
SKR
SMT
SNP
SPCG
SPPT
SSF
SNC
SPALI
SPI
SSI
SSSC
SVI
SYMC
TCAP
THAI
THCOM
THRE
TIP
TASCO
TKT
STANLY
STEC
SUC
SUSCO
SYNTEC
TASCO
TCP
TF
TFD
TFI
THANA
THANI
THIP
TICON
TIPCO
TK
TLUXE
TMILL
TMT
TNL
TOG
TPC
TPCORP
TPIPL
TRT
TRU
TSC
TSTE
TSTH
TTA
TBSP
TCCC
TEAM
TGCI
TIC
TIES
TIW
TKS
TMC
TMD
TMI
TNDT
TNPC
TOPP
TPA
TPP
TR
TTI
TVD
TVI
TWZ
UBIS
UEC
UOBKH
UPF
UWC
VARO
VTE
WAVE
WG
TMB
TNITY
TOP
TRC
TRUE
TTW
TVO
UV
VGI
WACOAL
TTCL zZMICO
TUF
TWFP
TYM
UAC
UMI
UMS
UP
UPOIC
UT
VIBHA
VIH
VNG
VNT
YUASA
*** PHATRA was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25,2012
A
AAV
AEC
AEONTS
AFC
AGE
AH
AI
AJ
AKR
ALUCON
ANAN
ARIP
AS
BAT-3K
BCH
BEAUTY
BGI
BLAND
BOL
BROCK
BSBM
CHARAN
CHUO
CI
CIG
CITY
CMR
CNS
CPL
CRANE
CSP
CSR
CTW
DEMCO
DNA
DRACO
EA
EARTH
EASON
EMC
EPCO
F&D
FNS
FOCUS
FPI
FSS
GENCO
GFM
GJS
GLOBAL
HFT
HTECH
HYDRO
IFS
IHL
ILINK
INOX
IRC
IRPC
IT
JMART
JMT
JTS
JUTHA
KASET
KC
KCAR
KDH
KTC
KWH
LALIN
LEE
MATCH
MATI
MBAX
MDX
PRINC
MJD
MK
MOONG
MPIC
MSC
NC
NIPPON
NNCL
NTV
OSK
PAE
PATO
PICO
PL
POST
PRECHA
PRIN
Q-CON
QLT
RCI
RCL
ROJNA
RPC
SCBLIF
SCP
SENA
SF
SGP
SIMAT
SLC
SMIT
SMK
SOLAR
SPC
SPG
SRICHA
SSC
STA
SUPER
SVOA
SWC
SYNEX
WIN
WORK
*** CIMBI was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.
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