Académique Documents
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Culture Documents
probabilistic approach
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
PAS 55.
UPTIME Pyramid of Excellence & PAS - 55.
Strategic Management.
Tactic Management.
Maintenance Cost.
Critical Failures (Bad Actor).
Probabilistic Approach.
Models Development.
Benefits and Goals.
2
Corporate
Organization
Management
Manage Asset
Portfolio
Create /
acquire
Assets
Utilize
Maintain
Layered Integration
Life Cycle
Optimization
Sustained Value
Value Creation
Business Criticality
Continuous
Improvement
Pragmatic
Renew
/Dispose
e
Vital Context:
Business, Objectives,
Policies, Performance
requirements, Risk
Assessment
Important Interface:
Motivation, Communication, Roles
& Responsibilities, Knowledge,
Experience , Leadership, Teamwork
Important Interface:
Life Cycle Cost, Capital
Investments, Operating
Costs
Financial
Assets
Human
Assets
Physical
Assets
Intangible
Important Interface:
Reputation, Social
Responsibility, Constraints,
Social Impact
Assets
Info
Assets
Inclusive
Whole Cycle
Optimized
Risk - Based
Data - supported
Continuous
Improvement
Pragmatic
Important Interface:
Condition, Asset Health,
Performance, Activities,
Costs & Opportunities
Vital Context:
Business, Objectives,
Policies, Performance
requirements, Risk
Management
Important Interface:
Active participation of people,
Positive influencer,
Continuous Improvement, Do
How
Important Interface:
Knowledge, Understanding,
Lean Process, Performance
measurements & Know How
Process
Human
Reliability
Reliability
Asset
Reliability
Important Interface:
Maintenance Strategies,
Maintenance Optimized; Maximize
MTBF, MTTF, MTTR, UPTIME
Equipment
Reliability
Maintainability
Equipment's
Inclusive
Whole Cycle
Optimized
Risk - Based
Data - supported
Continuous
Improvement
Pragmatic
Important Interface:
Internal Reliability, Planning &
Scheduling Effectiveness, Tactic
Management, Background.
Production
Effectiveness
FINANCE,
Capital Management
Availability
Reliability
Production Rate
Quality
Capital Effectiveness,
RONA
Production
Planning
Process Control
O&M Cost
Optimization
FRAME WORK
Information
Technology
Maintenance Management
Purchasing
Training
Management
Physical Asset Optimization
Value =
Quality x Service
Cost x Time x Risk
7
CAPEX
Risk
f(t)
Development
Costs
OPEX
Investment
Costs
Operating Costs
CMC + IOP + EI
Cost of Low Reliability = Risk
Acquisition
Design
Disposal
Today
At Working (Years)
Cost
PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
Availability
Utilization
Reliability
CPH
EXECUTION
Preventive Maintenance
- PM
Preventive Maintenance
Quality PM
Programmed Component
Replacement - PCR
Programmed Component
Replacement - PCR
Backlogs Mgmt
Backlogs Mgmt
SFMEA
EM - Strategy
Daily Tactics
FMEA
Risk Assessment
Reliability Engineering
Breakdown
Component Life
Cycle Cost Mgmt
Diagnostics
Lean Maintenance
Efficiency
Work-Order
Administration
Execution
Continuous
Improvement
Health Inspections
FACILITIES MGMT
Equipment Health
Functional Failures
Mgmt
COST ACCOUNTING
SHER Policies
Condition Monitoring
Prognostic Analysis
Data Capture
Facilities
Maintenance
Non
Destructing
Testing
Maintenance Efficiency
Facility Projects
CAPEX
OPEX
Work-Order Mgmt
Risk
Assessment
C-MORE, Canad
Financial
Health
9
9
9
9
SFMEA
Lean Maintenance
Efficiency
Continuous
Improvement
AHR
Equipment Health
Functional Failures
Mgmt
DTA
Condition Monitoring
Prognostic Analysis
Non
Destructing
Testing
Asset
Choosing
Excellence
Management
Work
Management
Essentials
Process
People
Support
System
Management
Basic Care
Materials
Management
Performance
Management
Leadership
Strategy
People
3.-
R
Tech
Process
2.-
Inspection Decisions:
Optimizing CBM
Dispatch to Maintenance.
Truck HT110 please check TPS for
low power fault
Book Ref:
DISPATCH
Wireless
Download
Real Time VIMS
Event Monitoring
P F curve customized
mobile equipment (CBM)
Realto
Time
Diagnostics
13
8%
Management
Construction
Non Preventable
32%
Operations
31%
Maintenance
15
1. Hidden Failure.
2. Low Detection Level (Low sensitivity to change).
3. Randomly.
4. Catastrophic Consequences (Cost, Downtime, Productivity).
16
3.-
Strategic Management.-
Component
Replacement
Decisions
Inspection
Decisions
Capital
Equipment
Replacement
Maintenance
Resource
Requirements
Decisions
17
3.-
Probability
&
Statistics
Stochastic
Processes (CBM
Optimization)
Economic Life.
Constant
Annual
Utilization.
Varying
Annual
Utilization.
Technological
Improvement.
Repair vs
Replace
Time
Value of
Money
Resource's Requirement
Inspection
frecuency.
Profit
Maximization
Availability
Maximization.
Inspection
Intervals.
FFIs.
Condition Based
Maintenance.
Blended Health,
Monitoring & Age
Replacement.
Capital Replacement
Best
Preventive:
DPD.
Replace
Only
Failure.
Constant
Interval.
Age - Based
Spare Parts
Provisioning
Repairable
Systems.
Inspection Decisions
Replacement Component
Worshops
Machines.
Right Sizing
Equipment.
Lease / Buy
Queing
Theory
Simulation
18
Breaks: Overtime
Heroes
Reactive
Preventive
(PM)
Maintain before
it Breaks
$
Pdm /
Condition
Based (CBM)
Proactive
(PROACT)
Eliminate problems,
eliminate source of
Breakage
Reliability
Driven
h(t)
y(x)
uom
f(t)
y=f(x)
Key Variable.
Studying variation.
Continuous.
Measurable.
Accuracy.
Sensitivity on time.
MTTF
Reactive Focus
Proactive Focus
Cost
Risk
Benefits
20
MTTF = 5,030
0.00014
Software Ref:
0.00012
Density
0.00010
0.00008
0.00006
0.00004
63.2%
0.00002
0.00000
36.8%
= 5,647
X = Bearing Hours
Findings:
The MTTF to Con Rod Bearings Fail" is less than the Business
Objective (PCR).
High probability of failures.
PCR : Programed Component Replacement
21
Failure Mode
Erosion Cavitation
Layer separation & Fatigue
Weibull
0.00010
P er cent
P DF
90
0.00005
0.00000
0
6000
12000 18000
Bear ings H our s
50
Bearings
Hours
10
1
100
24000
S urv iv al F unction
H azard F unction
100
0.00045
Rate
P er cent
1000
10000
Bear ings H our s
50
0.00030
0.00015
0
0.00000
0
6000
12000 18000
Bear ings H our s
24000
6000
12000 18000
Bear ings H our s
24000
Table of Statistics
Shape
Scale Corr F C
1.94045 9848.63 0.964 29 0
1.28012 7686.00 0.975 45 0
236
1,557
2,879
4,200
5,521
6,842
8,164
9,485
10,806
12,127
13,449
14,770
16,091
17,412
18,734
20,055
21,376
22,697
24,019
25,340
Erosion
Cavitation (r%)
Software Ref:
99.9
97.2
91.2
82.5
72.2
61.0
49.9
39.4
30.1
22.3
16.0
11.1
7.4
4.8
3.0
1.8
1.1
0.6
0.3
0.1
Failure Modes:
Erosion Cavitation (wear out).
Layer Separation & Fatigue (randomly).
22
23
Scheduled to
23th May
40
Scheduled to
24th May
Scheduled to
16th May
H T136
H T109
Accumulated Lead
30
H T153
H T068
H T053
29 Caution
H T069
H T121
20
H T079
HH
T145
T117
H T104
10
H T058
H T118
H T154H T049
T125
HHT131
T062
H T141
H T076
H T134
H T077 H T045
H T073 H T103
H T138
H T107H T110
H T133
HHT112
T139
H T137
HHT052
T060
HH
HT116
T130
T106
H T101H T140
H T071
H T128
H T132 H T057
H T065
H T102H T044
H T059
H T135 H T127
HH
HT122
T067
T142
HHT108
T048
HH
T126
T063
H T072
H T120
H T123
HHT147
T105HHT064
T114
H T144
H T055
H T152
H T124
H T056
H T111
HHT054
T074
H
H
HT119
T115
H
T151
T113
H T061
WT047
H
HHT143
T150
T046
H T050
H T075
HHT148
T149
H
HT080
T066
H T146
WT051
H T078
H T070
9000
After of
HT068
25
Software Ref:
y = Accumulated Lead
40
6842 (53.5%)
= 0.004
= 0.005
= 0.007
30
R-sq = 71.7%
= 0.005
29 (Fail)
= 0.005
Software Ref:
= 0.006
20
10
0
0
2000
4000
6000
x = Bearing Hours
8000
10000
y = f(x); Accum Lead accord with Con Rod Bearings Hours (normal condition); not by exception.
27
60
Variable
Accum Lead HT069 * Con Rod Bearing HT069
Accum Lead HT069_1 * Con Rod Bearing HT069_1
Accum Lead HT069_2 * Con Rod Bearing HT069_2
25
50
Variable
Accum Lead HT055 * Con Rod Bearing HT055
Accum Lead HT055_1 * Con Rod Bearing HT055_1
Accum Lead HT055_2 * Con Rod Bearing HT055_2
Y-Data
Y-Data
30
20
15
10
10
0
0
2000
4000
6000 8000
X-Data
10000 12000
X-Data
50
Y-Data
40
30
20
Variable
Accum Lead HT144 * Con Rod Bearing HT144
Accum Lead HT144_1 * Con Rod Bearing HT144_1
Accum Lead HT144_2 * Con Rod Bearing HT144_2
1. Parameters:
1. R-sq > 65%.
2. Individuals Trends.
3. Risk of Failure
10
Slope:0.006; R-sq= 98.7%
0
0
X-Data
29
TBD (accident)
60
Accumulated Lead
50
HT144
HT054
40
HT068
30
20
10
0
HT121
WT051
HT117
HT079
HT145 HT104HT058
HT049
HT133 HT103 HT045 HT125
HT141
HT073HT077
HT131
HT107 HT110HT112
HT116
HT124
HT139
HT106
HT130
HT137
HT102
HT052
HT060
HT138
HT071
HT140
HT101
HT065
HT128
HT059
HT132 HT057
HT123HT105 HT127
HT108
HT122
HT067
HT048
HT126
HT063HT044
HT072
HT120
HT142
HT064
HT056
HT114
HT119
HT115
HT074
HT148
WT047
HT129
HT146
HT075
HT147
HT154
HT109
HT153
HT076
2000
HT061
29 (fail)
HT053
HT055
HT078
HT070
4000
6000
8000
Con Rod Bearing Hours
R-sq= 75.1%
10000
12000
Scheduled
to Jun 03th
30
Failure Mode
Erosion Cavitation
Layer separation & Fatigue
Weibull
0.00012
90
P DF
P er cent
0.00008
0.00004
0.00000
0
5000
10000
15000
Bear ings H our s
50
10
1
100
20000
S urv iv al F unction
H azard F unction
100
0.0006
Rate
P er cent
Software Ref:
1000
10000
Bear ings H our s
50
0.0004
0.0002
0.0000
0
5000
10000
15000
Bear ings H our s
20000
5000
10000
15000
Bear ings H our s
20000
Table of Statistics
Shape
Scale AD* F C
2.22049 8790.94 0.943 44 0
1.61573 7396.52 0.859 45 0
31
0.00010
P er cent
P DF
90
0.00005
0.00000
50
10
1
100
10000
20000
Bear ings H our s
1000
10000
Bear ings H our s
S urv iv al F unction
H azard F unction
100
Rate
P er cent
0.0003
50
FM1:Erosion
Cavitation
0.0002
0.0001
0.0000
0
10000
20000
Bear ings H our s
Table of Statistics
Shape
Scale Corr F C
1.66230 9079.24 0.963 33 0
1.28012 7686.00 0.975 45 0
10000
20000
Bear ings H our s
h (; , ) =
Where,
= = Shape.
= = Scale.
FM2:Layer Separation
& Fatigue
.1
1.6
1.5
,
h ()
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
= shape
Detectable Deterioration
Potential Premature
Failure
Replacement
R (t)
Cost Curve
Functional
Failure
Desired Performance
Total Failure
F
Time
Warning Interval
(P F Net)
Unexpected
Breakdown
30
29 (Caution Level)
Accumulated Lead
25
Fits
Linear
Quadratic
20
HT134
15
10
5
0
HT135
HT152
HT150
HT143
HT151
HT113
HT148
HT075
HT118
HT068
HT076
HT129
HT149
HT117
HT065
HT069
HT109
HT146
HT080
HT053 HT136
500
R-sq=74.6%
R-sq=70.6%
1000
1500
2000
x=Bearing Hours
2500
34
6.- Risk Management: Reliability Analysis (PDF) improved.Distribution Plot: Layer Separation, Erosion Cavitation
Weibull, Thresh=0
Updated: 20110804
MTTF=7,593 MTTF=8,315
Mid Life:7,000
0.00012
Density
0.00010
=2.1
PCR:16,000
Shape Scale
2.1
8573
2.6
9356
=2.6
0.00008
0.00006
0.00004
63.2%
0.00002
63.2%
0.00000
=8,573
36.8%
=9,356
X = Hours
= Shape
= Characteristic
Life
MTTF.
Business Objective
ICA.
Findings:
The MTTF to "Erosion Cavitation" is making progress
toward the PCR.
The MTTF in addition is covering the Mid Life Strategy.
37
0.3
Potassium
0.2
Component 2
Software Ref:
PQ
Tin
Sodium
0.1
Silicon
0.0
-0.1
Aluminum
Kin Visc
-0.2
Iron
Chrome
Sulfur
Nitration
Soot
Oxidation
-0.3
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
Component 1
0.3
0.4
Iron
Copper
Silicon
Soot
Sodium
Oxidation
0.5
Findings:
The loading plot show us that the main predictors variables are:
Iron, Silicon, Soot, Sodium & Cooper.
In another domain, we need to check the Oxidation level (service
accuracy)
38
Vars
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
10
10
11
11
12
12
13
13
14
R-Sq
79.9
79.3
84.5
83.4
86.9
86.1
89.2
88.6
91.8
91.3
93.6
92.3
94.4
94.0
94.9
94.6
95.2
95.2
96.2
95.8
96.4
96.3
96.6
96.6
96.8
96.7
96.8
R-Sq(adj)
79.1
78.4
83.1
81.9
85.1
84.2
87.2
86.4
89.7
89.1
91.6
89.8
92.2
91.6
92.5
92.0
92.6
92.5
93.6
93.0
93.6
93.4
93.5
93.5
93.3
93.2
92.8
Mallows
Cp
47.8
50.0
33.9
37.8
27.5
30.3
21.5
23.6
14.6
16.3
10.1
14.9
9.6
11.0
9.8
10.9
10.6
10.6
9.3
10.7
10.4
10.9
11.8
11.8
13.2
13.4
15.0
S
0.56865
0.57765
0.51021
0.52829
0.47961
0.49376
0.44527
0.45806
0.39854
0.41025
0.35964
0.39640
0.34809
0.35981
0.34114
0.35134
0.33918
0.33996
0.31408
0.32990
0.31420
0.32006
0.31707
0.31712
0.32197
0.32473
0.33339
C
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n Q e n r
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X
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X X
X X
S
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i
u
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o
o
t
S
u
l
f
u
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X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
S
i
l
i
c
o
n
P
o
t
a
s
s
i
u
m
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
O
x
i
d
a
t
i
o
n
X
N
i
t
r
a
t
i
o
n
K
i
n
V
i
s
c
X
X X
X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X
X X X
X
X
X X X
R sq (adj).
Cp Mallows
Kin Visc
0.2
Oxidation
Software Ref:
Component 2
0.1
Nitration
Chrome
0.0
Tin
-0.1
-0.2
PQ
Soot
Sulfur
Iron
Copper
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
Sodium
Potassium
Aluminum
Iron
Copper
Silicon
Soot
Sodium
Oxidation
Kin Visc
Silicon
-0.6
0.0
0.1
0.2
Component 1
0.3
0.4
Findings:
The loading plot show us that the main predictors variables are:
Iron, Silicon, Soot, Sodium, Kin Visc & Oxidation
In another domain, we need to check the Oxidation level (service
accuracy)
40
Scatterplot of Accum Lead G vs Con Rod Bear, Accum Lead H vs Con Rod B
HT053, Bronze Bearings
2500 (Infant Age)
30
25
23
Y-Data
20
19
16
15
24
24 25
25 25
26 26
20 20
20 20 20
5
2
4
4
5
5
7 8
6 7
6
R-sq = 98.4%
0
0
Variable
Accum Lead Generated * Con Rod Bearing Hours Simulated
Accum Lead HT053 * Con Rod Bearing HT053
17
13
10
29
R sq value.
Lineal Regression
Fail Profile
N*
0
Mean
1.66667
StDev
0.516398
Median
2
Minimum
1
Maximum
2
Skewness
-0.968246
Kurtosis
-1.875
R-sq = 91.5%
Distribution
Normal
Exponential
Weibull
Gamma
AD
1.091
1.642
1.406
1.240
P
<0.005
0.015
<0.010
<0.005
Software Ref:
Random Data.
Wear Profile (Mid Life)
> 100 interactions
Distribution
Normal*
Exponential
Weibull
Gamma
Location
1.66667
Shape
4.60608
10.42504
Scale
0.51640
1.66667
1.83957
0.15987
Threshold
41
8. Total Impact due to B. Problems.8.1 Summary of all cost in the first year (only 2011)
$1022,976.67
$584,193.58
$1607,170.25
$530,610.30
$3555,841.56
$4086,451.86
$2479,281.61
42
8. Total Impact due to B. Problems.8.2 Summary of all cost in the following years (2012 to up)
$584,193.58
$584,193.58
$2586,066.59
$2001,873.01
43
44