Can potato be substitute of our staple food?

Abstract:
Bangladesh is mainly an agro-based country. It is a thickly populated small country with an area of 14.48
million ha. According to an estimate by Bhuiyan et al., 2002, net cultivable land would decrease from
8.42 million ha in 2000 to 7.89 million ha in 2025 and population would increase from 127.22 million in
2000 to 168.96 million in 2025. The per capita net cultivable land would reduce from 0.066 ha in 2000 to
0.047 ha in 2025 (Bhuiyan et al., 2002). The population has doubled in the last 30 years despite a decline
in the annual population growth rate from 2.26 in 1961 to 1.47 in 2004. Potato is a staple food in the
developed countries and which accounts for 37% of the total potato production in the world (FAO and
CIP, 1995). Considering the trend of population growth and consequently the increased demand for food
in the country and dwindling cultivable land area, the potato is likely to play a very important role in the
future. Potato is a popular and important vegetable in Bangladesh. For the whole year, it is used as main
vegetable.In our study, an endeavor is taken to show that can potato be the substitute of our staple food.

Introduction :
Potato is an important vegetable crop in Bangladesh. It covered 56 thousand
hectares (about 10 percent of cultivated area) with a total production of 1550
Mt in 1999. Bangladesh experienced much progress in its potato production in
the past decades; it has increased by 5 percent per annum.
Considering the trend of population growth and consequently the increased
demand for food in the country and dwindling cultivable land area, the potato
is likely to play a very important role in the future. Potato is a popular and
important vegetable in Bangladesh. For the whole year, it is used as main
vegetable.
Objectives:
The objectives of the study are given as follows1.the growth pattern of potato production in bangladesh.
2. importance of potato as a substitute of our stale food
Methodology:

The present study was conducted mainly based on the secondary data and
information. Most of the information are on the time series data of potato
production pertaining to the period of 19986-87 to 2010-11 were generated and
compiled Bangladesh Economic Review-2012, Ministry of Finance. Econometric
and statistical tools were employed in analyzing the data.
literature review:
some literatures regarding the potato production are as followsPotato production in Bangladesh is in transition from subsistence to commercial agriculture.
Ten per cent of growers use leased land for potato production and 38 per cent use both
their own and leased land. Formal farming contract systems are in development mainly in
relation to the production of potato varieties for processing, as seed potato or for export
(Rabbani et al., 2010). The majority of Bangladeshs potato production is used for direct
consumption. The varieties used for table potatoes are not appropriate for processing (the
dry matter content is too low) or export (foreign consumers have different tastes).
The rapid growth of potato production in Bangladesh created problems in terms of cold
storage. Despite the number of cold stores in Bangladesh increasing from 77 in 1975 to 320
in 2010, the location of the capacities within the country is not optimal.An average of 70 per cent of
the cold storage capacities are used(Reardon et al., 2012).

Prior expectation:
We expect that production of rice is a positive function of total land used.
potato production=f (amount of land used for potato purpose)
Using, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation we define regression model as
follows:

Prodn = 1 + 2 (acre) + error ; 2>0

1=intercept term
2 =slope coefficient
Prodn=production of potato
Acre=acre of land
Error= residuals
We defined Production in '000' mt. and acre in '000' acres .

We presented Hypothesis testing based on t-test. We performed 95% confidence

interval to see whether our findings are statistically significant or not. We accept
the normality assumptions of the distribution of the OLS residuals at 5% level.
Summary measures are presented in the appendix.

We perform several diagrammatic analysis to measure the trend of potato

production in Bangladesh for last 25 years. This will help us to recommend certain
policies.

Limitations of this study:

This study includes only two variables named land used and amount of potato
produced. Amount of land is a vital determinant of potato production but it is also
true that potato production is dependent on many other variables. This study will
not reflect the effects of those variables like amount of fertilizer used, weather,
geographic location etc. the findings of the study may not be taken as general
conclusions.
Analysis:
Here we present statistical and econometric analysis for all three seasons
separately.
Using ols estimation it is clear that potato production is increasing with the amount of land used over
time.

1 acre increase in land leads to a increase in potato production on an average

7.778 metric ton over the entire period of 1987-2012.

If no land is used in potato production, then the amount of potato production

is= - 1186 mt , is economically meaningless.
With 23 df, both estimators of 1 & 2 are statistically significant because
p- Value is extremely low. Probability of making type 01 error is almost zero if
we reject the null hypothesis.
R2 =0.9571 means about 95% variation in potato production is explained by
the explanatory variable. This is a very good fit of data.
Adj-R2=0.9552 is less than R2. Because number of terms is greater than 01.
Total sum of square is 137539513 .

Linear regression without constant term:

Regression through the origin shows that
the value of slope coefficient is 6.168. An increase in 1 acre of land in potato
production purpose has increased on average potato production by 6.17 metric
ton, over the entire period of 1987 to 2012.

Slope coefficient is statistically significant. If we reject the null hypothesis the

probability of occurring type -1 error will be almost zero.

96% of the variation in potato production is explained by the variation in land

used. So, it is a very good fit of data.
R2=0.9696 means that, about 96% variation in rice production is explained by
the explanatory variable (land used).
Adj-R2=0.9683 is less than R2. Because number of term is greater than 1.

Graphical analysis:

The above figure shows that the scatter plots are highly concentrated to the fitted
line. High productivity in potato production is expected to due to the use of HYV
technology, use of scientific methods of cultivation and favorable environmental
factors. This gives farmers an incentive to engage higher portion of land for
cultivating potato.

From the above figure it is clear that production pattern is rightly skewed.
Skewness is equal to 0.9138274.kurtosis is equal to 2.621547. the production
pattern is platy kurtic.(table2-Appendices)

This figure shows that the density of potato production is concentrated mainly on the level of 2000 mt.
and then it starts to fall with the incremental roduction.

The above figure shows the upward trend of potato production over time which is consistent with the
study.

policy implications:
the recomended policies for the prospect of potato production in bangladesh are as follows:
1. One agricultural graduate needs to be appointed in each union for giving necessary
guidance to the farmers for proper adoption of HYVs and utilization of quality seeds approved
by BARI.
2.One training institute in each division for the training of farmers and on modern agriculture
needs to be establish.
3.An academy for agricultural research management is to be established in Bangladesh for the
purpose of developing managerial capabilities of the scientists.
4.The facilities for transportation, communication and new methods for potato cultivation should be
increased among the farmers.
5.Necessary steps should be taken by the government to preserve the potatoes by establising a large
number of cold storages in thr most potato produced areas. and also the HYV seeds, fertilizers, pesticides
should be provoded to the farmers more easily.
conclusion:
Despite there exists many kinds of problems in the production of potatoes in bangladesh, it has gained
much more importance from the farmers to produce it in a wide range.since the population of
bangladesh is increasing day by day, the amount of cultivable land for the rice production is
decreasing.then to meet up the demand of curbohydrate, we need another avialable source. potato can
be the most potential source of it as it grows more and more over time.and not only it can meet up the
demand for crbohydrate but also differnt kinds of tasty foods can be prepared from it.so it has the
potentiality to br the closest substitute of our staple food rice.

references:
1.Annual Report. 2001-2002, Agricultural Economics Division, Gazipur. pp 175-182.
2.Uddin, M. A., Q.M. Alam and M.A Baset. 2009. Potato for food security in Bangladesh,
3.FAO and CIP. 1995. Potatoes in the 1990s: Situation and prospects of the world potato economy. FAO, Rome
(Italy), 39pp.
4.BARI Annual Report. 2009. Training and Communication Wing, Gazipur, pp. 29-35

5.Hijmans, R.J., G. A. Forbes and T. S. Walker. 2000. Estimating the global severity of potato late blight with GISlinked disease forecast models, J. Plant Pathology 49: 697-705 International Potato Center (CIP), Apartado 1558,
Lima 12, Peru.
6.DAE. 2009. Department of Agriculture Extension, Ministry of Agriculture, Khamarbari, Farm Gate, Dhaka.
7.Reardon, T., Chen, K., Minten B., Adriano, L. (2012) The Quiet Revolution in Staple Food

Value Chains, ADB and IFPRI, Mandalnyong Philippines, 2012.

8.Rabbani, M.G., Siddique, M.A., Islam, M.M., Islam, M.S. (2010) The Potato Sector in
Bangladesh: Its challenges and opportunities, Katalyst, Dhaka.

appendix:

Table 01:

Table 02: