Swedes Find Definitive Evidence of

Submarine, Russians Call Them

Unmanly

BY ELIAS GROLL-NOVEMBER 15, 2014

It's a disappointing kind of victory, but in the shadow war

Russia is waging with its neighbors, Friday's announcement that the

Swedish navy has secured hard evidence that a foreign submarine
breached its waters in October is about as good as it gets.

Flanked by Sweden's prime minister and top defense official, the

commander of Swedish armed forces, Sverker Granson, told a crowd of
assembled reporters that an exhaustive analysis of evidence collected
during last month's submarine hunt in the Stockholm archipelago had
definitively concluded that a small submarine had in fact violated Swedish
sovereignty. He could not, however, confirm the submarine's nationality,
though it is all but certain that the boat was Russian. Moreover, there may
have been more than one.

"There is no doubt. All other explanations have been eliminated. Sweden

has been subjected to a gross and unacceptable violation by a foreign
power," Granson said.
In making the determination that it was in fact a submarine that his
troopers hunted mere miles from the Swedish capital, Granson pointedto
three key pieces of evidence. First, a close examination of a photograph of
the vessel that was taken by a member of the public revealed that its wake
was consistent not with a surface craft moving through the water, but with
a submarine discharging water from its valves before diving.
According to Granson, the submarine pictured in the image below was
moving at a speed of about one knot and dove shortly after the photograph
was taken.

But that image isn't the most damning piece of evidence in the Swedes'
investigation. Granson also revealed a sonar image of a submarine track
left on the seabed. The image was made after one of the corvettes
patrolling the archipelago picked up a signal from the area where the image
of the submarine track was later captured.

If that image is a bit difficult to understand, Sweden's armed forces also

released a sketch of the submarine track:

Granson added that the submarine had also been observed from a height
by a resident of the archipelago. Swedish sensors later confirmed that an

echo was recorded in that area, and the resident's observation was
corroborated by other members of the public.
While confirming the presence of one submarine, Granson emphasized
that there may have been other underwater vessels present in the
Stockholm archipelago. Moreover, Swedish authorities aren't revealing all
the evidence they have collected in an effort to keep their full military
capabilities a secret, Granson said. The newspaper Svenska Dagbladet,
which has far and away the best sources inside the Defense
Ministry,reports that its military sources say it's likely a larger submarine,
perhaps in the class of 28 to 30 meters, may have assisted another, smaller
sub, perhaps 10 meters in size. The paper reports that Spetznas, the
Russian special forces, are known to use such tactics and equipment.
The violation of Swedish waters comes on the heels of a series of Russian
incursions on its neighbors' territory, and on Friday Swedish Prime Minister
Stefan Lfven issued a stark warning to his country's adversaries. "Those
who are considering entering Swedish territory should be aware of the
enormous risks this entails for those who are involved in such violations,"
he said at the press conference with Granson. "We will defend our
territorial integrity with all available means."
In response to the incident, Lfven announced that he will be forming a
national security council, charged with coordinating Swedish security policy
among its ministries and armed forces. During the Cold War,
Sweden investigated such a bureaucratic reshuffling but never took the
step, even in the face of repeated Soviet submarine incursions. In public
appearances, Swedish generals and parliamentarians active on the issue
regularly speak of a completely changed security environment in the Baltic

-- always in reference to Russian military moves. Federation planes have

violated Estonia, Lithuania, and Finland. Russian bomberspracticed a
bombing run this year on Stockholm. Russia is in open warwith Ukraine,
even if no one in Europe wants to admit it.
Sweden's politicians struck a remarkably unified front in response to
Friday's news, with party leaders from the entire political spectrum closing
ranks behind Lfven, the newly minted Social Democratic prime minister. At
the press conference, Lfven spoke in broad terms of a world in flames,
citing the ongoing Ebola epidemic, fighting in Iraq and Syria, the
participation of Swedes in that conflict, and Russian intervention in Ukraine.
But it is unclear how much Sweden can do to counteract what is all but
certainly Russian military activity on the doorstep of its capital. Sweden's
military has seen its funding plummet in recent years, and the country's
coastline is a notorious haven for submarine warfare. The littorals around
Stockholm represent one of the most difficult terrains in the world for
spotting submarines. On Friday, Lfven noted Sweden has a coastline as
long as the entire east coast of the United States. And even if Swedish
politicians decisively increase funding for its military, the effects of that
spending are unlikely to be felt for several years. Troops have to be trained.
Equipment must be procured, then deployed.
But maybe the best part of this turn in the bizarre story is the reaction in
Russia. The paper Rossiyskaya Gazeta argues in a commentary that it was
a NATO boat in Stockholm. "But to say that means to admit that the
Russians are innocent," the paper writes, according to a translation by
Sweden's Aftonbladet. "But such a manly step is one the Swedish military is
apparently incapable of taking. As a result, Mr. Granson behaves as if he
has water in the mouth."

Aftonbladet translates the expression "water in the mouth" as: a person

who "like a clam" is mute, showing a stubborn silence or unwillingness to
speak.
So there it is: A perfect distillation of the nationalist revanchism currently
running Russian policy. Every credible defense expert agrees it was a
Russian submarine in Swedish waters, but on Friday Deputy Prime Minister
Arkady Dvorkovich said while visiting the World Chess Championship in
Sochi that "we have no information about submarines in waters near
Sweden; we concentrate on what we are best at: chess." A source within
the Russian defense ministry told RIA Novosti that it could have been a
Dutch boat.
The Russian military does one thing, Russian leaders say the opposite.

Where will it end?

Posted by Thavam a