Asila AlBusaidi, Assignment: Brief 5, MBA 731-01(F14), Prof. Roger Kisiel, November 16, 2014, page no.

1
To: Alan Roberts
From: Asila AlBusaidi, Company Consulter
Date: November 16, 2014
Subject: Yankee Fork and Hoe Company Analysis
Yankee Fork and Hoe is one of the leading companies that produce gardening tools from hand trucks,
wheelbarrows, trowels, rakes and hand trucks. The tools are sold in four product lines, Garden Helper
products and Hercules products are the most common sold. The company gained their competitive
advantage from the low product prices with a high quality products and fast delivery, though they are
selling simple designed tools in large amount of numbers. The company is selling their products in high
sensitive market as they are committed to on-time delivery. The situation in this case is that recently the
clients are complaining for the late shipment due to the delay in manufacturing, which cost un-achieving
customer demands. Plus the less capability to keep up with customer orders on bow-rank, had made the
marketing manager concurrence of the way to keep low inventory within the limited ranks comparing to
the shipment dead line, which made him hire a consulter to look through it.
Analysis
There are two measure issues with the forecasting system that cost the company a bad result. First, The
basic steps that any company goes through is that marketing managers meet once a year, than use the
shipment data for next year forecasting, after that they send the forecasting to the production
department where they reduce it with 10 percent. And since the production department is not aware of
how the marketing get the forecasting, it created an issue as the production department focuses on the
actual shipment instead of actual demand. Second, the bow-rank need to be made from the cost of buying
or selling steel, which makes it hard to control the inventory, plus the utilization capacity due to the
forging process that needs to use extensively when demand raise while its hard to keep up with.
Conclusions
Careful analysis is required to improve the forecasting system that is based on actual demand. It is
obviating how the two measure factors (bow-rake and the annual demand) are important, which make the
company need a forecasting system that recognizes both factors. So in addition to achieve the demand at
year five, the monthly average demand increase by 2,589 units, which makes the average demand equal to
45928 + 2589 = 48517, than we multiply it with the factors to reach the forecast.
The basic recommendation that can be given to the management is to improve the communication among
the marketing and the production departments in a concept of preparing the forecast, in addition to
increase the quantitative and get better adjustment of forecast, which will result in awareness of using the
actual demand data instead or shipmen data. Plus they have to keep more inventories, switch the planning
into intermediate range and add more formality to planning. The forecast plan is in Appendix A.

Asila AlBusaidi, Assignment: Brief 5, MBA 731-01(F14), Prof. Roger Kisiel, November 16, 2014, page no.2

Appendix A:

Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Average

Actual Demand
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 forecast
55220 39875 32180
62377
70203
57350 64128 38600
66501
72911
15445 47653 25020
31404
19636
27776 43050 51300
36504
35312
21408 39359 31790
16888
27217
17118 10317 32100
18909
21763
18028 45194 59832
35500
22920
19883 46530 30740
51250
25278
15796 22105 47800
34443
20082
53665 41350 73890
68088
68226
83269 46024 60202
68175
105862
72991 41856 55200
61100
92796
38162 40620 44805
45928
48517

Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Seasonal Factors
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Average
1.447
0.982
0.718
1.358
1.126
1.503
1.579
0.862
1.448
1.348
0.405
1.173
0.558
0.684
0.705
0.728
1.06
1.145
0.795
0.932
0.561
0.969
0.71
0.368
0.652
0.449
0.254
0.694
0.412
0.452
0.472
1.113
1.335
0.773
0.923
0.521
1.145
0.686
1.116
0.867
0.414
0.544
1.067
0.75
0.694
1.406
1.018
1.649
1.482
1.389
2.182
1.133
1.344
1.484
1.536
1.913
1.03
1.232
1.33
1.376

Asila AlBusaidi, Assignment: Brief 5, MBA 731-01(F14), Prof. Roger Kisiel, November 16, 2014, page no.3

120000
100000

Actual Demand Year 1

80000
Actual Demand Year 2
60000
Actual Demand Year 3

40000

Actual Demand Year 4

20000

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Average

Actual Demand
forecast

2.5
2
1.5

Seasonal Factors Year 1

Seasonal Factors Year 2

1
0.5

Seasonal Factors Year 3

Seasonal Factors Year 4
Seasonal Factors Avarage

Asila AlBusaidi, Assignment: Brief 5, MBA 731-01(F14), Prof. Roger Kisiel, November 16, 2014, page no.4

Appendix B:

5-Step Critical Thinking Decision-Making Process Matrix

Step 1: Identify the problem(s) and uncertainties.
What exactly is the problem
The situation in this case is that recently the clients are complaining for the late shipment due to the delay
in manufacturing, which cost un-achieving customer demands. Plus the less capability to keep up with
customer orders on bow rank, had made the marketing manager concurrence of the way to keep low
inventory within the limited ranks comparing to the shipment dead line, which made him hire a consulter
to look through it.

The problem is this

There are two measure issues with the forecasting system that cost the company a bad result. First, The
basic steps that any company goes through is that marketing managers meet once a year, than use the
shipment data for next year forecasting, after that they send the forecasting to the production
department where they reduce it with 10 percent. And since the production department is not aware of
how the marketing get the forecasting, it created an issue as the production department focuses on the
actual shipment instead of actual demand. Second, the bow-rank need to be made from the cost of buying
or selling steel, which makes it hard to control the inventory, plus the utilization capacity due to the
forging process that needs to use extensively when demand raise while its hard to keep up with.

This is an important problem because

Because It will led to the following,
1. Poor forecasts effects on capacities and schedules.
2. Affects the proper data to use for forecasts.
3. It will also affect the Quantitatively analyze forecasting data and forecasts for the following
year.

Step 2: Obtain information.

The following information is needed to answer this question
Careful analysis is required improve the forecasting system that is based on actual demand. It is obviating
how the two measure factors (bow rake and the annual demand) are important, which make the company

Asila AlBusaidi, Assignment: Brief 5, MBA 731-01(F14), Prof. Roger Kisiel, November 16, 2014, page no.5
need a forecasting system that recognizes both factors. So in addition to achieve the demand at year five,
the monthly average demand increase by 2,589 units, which makes the average demand equal to 45928 +
2589 = 48517, than we multiply it with the factors to reach the forecast.

The points of view relevant to this problem belong to

- Production department
- Marketing department
- Mangers
- consulter
Step 3: Make predictions about the future.
If this problem gets solved, some important implications are
1. Improve the lines of communication between marketing and production regarding the
preparation of forecasts which will eliminate arbitrary adjustments to the forecasts.
2. Use actual demand data rather than shipment data.
3. Use models that somehow handle seasonality, such as the seasonal forecast method.
4. Combination forecasting approach or possibly focus forecasting will be considered rather than
using a single model.

If this problem does not get solved, some important implications are
1. The relationship among the marketing and production department will remain the same or
worse.
2. The shipment data will be used instead of actual demand data
3. Unorganized schedule
4. Continue using single model.
Step 4: Make decisions by choosing among alternatives.
What is the best solution and why
The basic recommendation that can be given to the management is to improve the communication among
the marketing and the production departments in a concept of preparing the forecast, in addition to
increase the quantitative and get better adjustment of forecast, which will result in awareness of using the
actual demand data instead or shipmen data. Plus they have to keep more inventories, switch the planning
into intermediate range and add more formality to planning

Step 5: Implement the decision, evaluate performance, and learn.

Asila AlBusaidi, Assignment: Brief 5, MBA 731-01(F14), Prof. Roger Kisiel, November 16, 2014, page no.6

Appendix C:
Brief 5 Rubric

Total 100 points

Criteria
Develops an
opening
paragraph that
introduces the
case.

Unacceptable

Acceptable

Vaguely develops
an opening
paragraph that
introduces the
case or does not
have an opening
paragraph.

Develops an
opening
paragraph that
introduces the
case and, for the
most part, fulfills
assignment
requirements.

Proficient
Develops an
opening
paragraph that
introduces the
case and
demonstrates
solid ability to
accomplish the
assignment.

(0-7 points)
(8 points)
Discusses the Vaguely
Discusses the
issues with the discusses the
issues with the
companys
issues with the
companys
current
companys
current
forecasting
current
forecasting
method.
forecasting
method and, for
method or
the most part,
completely off the fulfills
topic.
assignment
requirements.

Recommends
how to
improve the
forecasting
method used
by the
company.

(0-11 points)
Vaguely
recommends how
to improve the
forecasting
method used by
the company or
completely off the

(9-10 points)
Discusses the
issues with the
companys
current
forecasting
method and
demonstrates
solid ability to
accomplish the
assignment.

(12-13 points)

(14-15 points)

Recommends
how to improve
the forecasting
method used by
the company and,
for the most part,
fulfills

Recommends
how to improve
the forecasting
method used by
the company and
demonstrates
solid ability to

Student Score
and Comments

Asila AlBusaidi, Assignment: Brief 5, MBA 731-01(F14), Prof. Roger Kisiel, November 16, 2014, page no.7

topic.

assignment
requirements.

(0-15 points)

accomplish the
assignment.
(18-20 points)

(16-17 points)

Asila AlBusaidi, Assignment: Brief 5, MBA 731-01(F14), Prof. Roger Kisiel, November 16, 2014, page no.8

Forecasts the
need for bow
rakes for the
next year
based on the
recommended
system.

Vaguely forecasts
the need for bow
rakes for the next
year based on the
recommended
system or
completely off the
topic.

Forecasts the
need for bow
rakes for the next
year based on the
recommended
system and, for
the most part,
fulfills
assignment
requirements.

(0-11 points)
Integrates
established
operation
management
principles into
the discussion.

Synthesizes
relevant
information
and materials
to provide
evidence of
critical
thought.

Develops
ideas with
clarity and
logic.

Rarely integrates
established
operation
management
principles into the
discussion.

Forecasts the
need for bow
rakes for the next
year based on the
recommended
system and
demonstrates
solid ability to
accomplish the
assignment.
(14-15 points)

(12-13 points)
For the most part,
does a good job
of integrating
established
operation
management
principles into the
discussion.

Consistently does
a good job of
integrating
established
operation
management
principles into the
discussion.

(0-7 points)
Synthesizes
information at a
minimal level.

(8 points)
For the most part,
effectively
synthesizes
information,
which supports
main ideas.

(9-10 points)
Consistently and
effectively
synthesizes
information,
which provides
strong support to
main ideas.

(0-7 points)

(8 points)

(9-10 points)

Demonstrates
little clarity and
logic. Readers
have difficulty
following the line
of reasoning.

Develops ideas
with clarity and
logic. Readers
can generally
follow the line of
reasoning.

Develops ideas
with clarity and
logic. Ideas flow
smoothly from
one to another
and are clearly
linked to each
other.

(0-3 points)

(4 points)
(5 points)

Asila AlBusaidi, Assignment: Brief 5, MBA 731-01(F14), Prof. Roger Kisiel, November 16, 2014, page no.9

Uses
supporting
documentation
that has been
properly
references and
cited.

Inadequate or
minimal use of
supporting
documentation or
not properly
referenced or
cited.

For the most part,

uses supporting
documentation
that is properly
referenced and
cited.

Consistently uses
supporting
documentation
that is properly
referenced and
cited.

Considered
holistically,
demonstrates
the ability to
write at the
graduate level.

(0-3 points)
Considered
holistically, the
student
demonstrates an
inadequate ability
to write at the
graduate level.

(4 points)
Considered
holistically, the
student
demonstrates an
acceptable ability
to write at the
graduate level.

(5 points)
Considered
holistically, the
student
demonstrates a
proficient ability
to write at the
graduate level.

(0-7 points)

(8 points)

(9-10 points)
SubTotal Points

Turnitin.com

Did not turn

paper into
Turnitin.com

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Minus 10 points
Revisions
based on the
originality
Report

Did not revise

paper based on
the originality
report
Minus 10 points

Grammarly

Did not revise

paper based on
Grammarly.
Minus 10 points

Total Points =

Asila AlBusaidi, Assignment: Brief 5, MBA 731-01(F14), Prof. Roger Kisiel, November 16, 2014, page
no.10