Iowa Floods 21st Century

visuals
100-yr type floods are now expected to
average one in 17-years.
With Climate change; 100-yr type floods
could average one in 5-years
Rain days per year have increased substantially
 Ames, IA Precipitation by year 1893-2007
60 y = 0.0517x - 69.076

50

40

30

20

10

0
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

100+ yr Precipitation, 20%+ increase

Final, Revised for: Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society, Vol. 77, No. 2, Feb. 1996, pp 279-292.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/gcps/papers/icc-us.pdf
 1950-1993 Precipitation

Most of the United States experienced significant

precipitation increase. Diminished Tropical
Storms impacted Florida.
Heavy rain events are more common.
 Increased River Flow (NE Iowa)
Turkey River at Garber, IA
3500

y = 6.932x - 12627

3000

6-fold increase of Flood Prone Years

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
2-fold increase in annual river flow
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
 Nishnabotna @Hamburg, IA (SW Iowa)

6000 Kishwaukee @ DeKalb

http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/ia/nwis/annual

6-fold increase of Flood Prone Years

5000

4000
mean annual cfs

3000

2000

1000

0
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
y = 18.825x - 35716
2-fold increase in annual river flow
Year
 Iowa River@ IowaCity
9000

8000

7000
mean annual cfs

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
1900 y1910 1920 1930
= 14.586x 1940 1950
- 26619 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
year

Flood prone years have reduced amplitude

during years that reservoir is effective
 Cedar River @ Austin, MN

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
 South Central MN Precip Oct- Sep
50

40

30

20

10
a
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
 Wet Interval
Wet Interval

Dry Interval

Wet/Dry Intervals are typical of 2/3 of USA

 Cyclic Climate Events, Global Scale

• Some contend that since 1950 or so all global

scale climate change is related to the CO2
change.
• Some contend that a global scale cyclic
climate event will impact the global climate.
• Cyclic cooling or precipitation reduction
should not be considered to negate
“greenhouse” potential impact on climate.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.

Dominance of
greenhouse over some
other factors influencing
global scale climate.
Periodic major ocean
currents are not
included and are
considered to have a
major global
temperature impact.
 The PDO
• Dr. Don J. Easterbrook (PDO + CO2)

Pacific impact on temperature at global scale.

Dr. Easterbrook feels the PDO remains functional.
Do Not be fooled by 30 years of “cooling”
 Iowa Not Dry @ +2.5C

Iowa Oct 15, 2007

Wm Gutowski
Climate change models: like pattern, 17% more rain.
 PET @ +2.5C
• Will crops benefit from a 17% increase in precipitation or
will potential evapotranspiration increase exceed it?
• Assuming that the diurnal range is 13C (23F) in summer
now and at +2.5 C and that most midsummer mornings
have dew.
• July average high now: 30C, Mid-day VPD= 15.73
• July with change: 32.5C, for a VPD= 17.74
• Increase in PET = 13%
• Assumes sun and wind are unchanged from now.
• So the added rain exceeds the max added water use by 4%.
A 4% increase in water increases the flood events by 3x
(that is have 3 times the floods in Iowa we have now.

A 2.5C global scale warming could be expected

to increase Iowa flood events by 3X
• The ice change demonstrates a major short
coming of the GCMs (none can put the melt to
CO2 forcing).
• Clearly state of the science GCM (global
climate models) cannot at this time explain
the global scale reduction of sea ice observed
in the 15 years. This indicates that it is not yet
time to withdraw GCM modeling research and
development funding.
 Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by Global Climate Models

2005
2008
2007

Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt,
M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771
Where has all the Sea Ice gone?

• It may be differential
impacts of particulates
• 2009 is the year to
learn
• http://www.bluewaterstudios.com/
• David Thoreson , Iowa
 END
Elwynn Taylor
Iowa State University
setaylor@iastate.edu

www.extension.iastate.edu
Iowa State University Extension