In the Name of God

Structural Reliability and Probabilistic Modeling

Mojtaba Mahsuli

Assignment 1
Deadline: Monday, Esfand 5, 1392

Problem 1
Sample space and events
Consider a seismically active fault, shown as a straight line, and the randomly located epicenter of an
impending earthquake, shown as a solid circle in the figure below. The magnitude M and the radius R
from the epicenter to a critical facility are unknown.
The impending earthquake is expected to have a moment magnitude of 4 < M < 8.
a) Draw the sample space in the R-M plane.
b) It is common to measure the ground shaking intensity in terms of peak ground acceleration,
denoted as PGA. Empirical ground motion prediction equations are developed to relate PGA to the
magnitude and distance. One example, in units of g, is

PGA 0.067e0.5 M R 2 30

0.39

Suppose damage to the facility is expected if the PGA exceeds 0.15g. In the sample space from
Part (a), identify the region where the combination of magnitude and distance is such that the
facility will be damaged.
c) We can transform the sample space to be in the M-PGA or the R-PGA plane instead. Draw the
sample space in the R-PGA plane.

100

100

Epicenter

R
Facility

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 Structural Reliability and Probabilistic Modeling

Mojtaba Mahsuli

Problem 2
Symbolic expressions and Venn diagrams for events
Let A, B, and C be three arbitrary events. Find symbolic expressions for the following events, and show
each event in a Venn diagram:
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
g)
h)
i)

A occurs
Only A occurs
A occurs and either B or C occur, but not both
Only one or two occur
None occurs
One and only one occurs
All three occur
At least two occur
Only two occur

Problem 3
Probability rules
Consider a civil engineering facility that is located in a seismically active region. It is estimated that an
impending earthquake in the region might be strong (S), moderate (M) or weak (W) with probabilities
P(S) = 0.05, P(M) = 0.35, and P(W) = 0.6. The corresponding failure probabilities of the facility are
computed by reliability analysis to be 0.2, 0.05 and 0.01, respectively.
a) Determine the probability of failure of the facility if the impending earthquake occurs.
b) If the facility fails, what is the probability that the earthquake was of week strength?

Problem 4
Probability rules
You are about to take an oral exam, by answering three questions from an examination card drawn at
random from the set of 20 cards. There are eight favorable cards, for which you know the answer to
all three questions on the cards. You will get a grade A if you answer all three questions on the card
that you draw.
a) What is the probability that you get an A if you are the first one in the class to draw a card?
b) What is the probability that you get an A if you are the second one in the class to draw a card?
That is, one card is taken by a student before you draw.
c) What is the probability that you get an A if you are the third one in the class to draw a card? That
is, two cards are taken by two students before you draw.
d) Compare the results of Parts (a), (b), and (c), and comment.

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 Structural Reliability and Probabilistic Modeling

Mojtaba Mahsuli

Problem 5
Probabilities by geometry
A stray rocket randomly falls in a 20km x 20km region. Three assets within this region are expected to
be damaged if the rocket hits them, namely a 2km radius power plant, a 2km x 2km residential area,
and a 15km x 0.2km pipeline system. These assets are located within the rectangular region as shown
in the figure below. The rocket impact is equally likely to occur anywhere within the rectangular
region.
a) Determine the probability that each of the assets will be damaged (three probabilities).
b) Determine the probability that any of the assets will be damaged; that is, asset 1 OR asset 2 OR
asset 3.

Problem 6
De Morgan Transformations:
A series system is one in which failure of any component causes system failure. A parallel system is
one in which the system fails only when all components fail. Consider a generic system with three
components, where A, B, and C denote the component failure events.
a) Use the union operator to write the system failure event for a series system in terms of the
component failure events
b) Use de Morgan rule to rewrite the previous answer in terms of the intersection operator, i.e., as a
parallel system problem
c) Use the intersection operator to write the system failure event for a parallel system in terms of
the component failure events
d) Use the de Morgan rule to rewrite the previous answer in terms of the union operator, i.e., as a
series system problem

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