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"08MOSCOW265_a", Confidential cable from Ambassador William Burns to Joint Chief of Staffs, NATO EU Cooperative,
National Security Council, Secretary of Defense, Secretary of State. Source: WikiLeaks
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Wouldn't the first thing to do include moving some military assets close
closer to the conflict zone (Black
Sea)? This does not make sense. Unless...
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"White House: Brennan was in Kiev this weekend", USA Today, April 14, 2014
"Biden's son joins board of Ukraine gas company", USA Today, May 13, 2014
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The US is fine, as long as the dollar remains the world's reserve currency and Japan, it's last major ally in
the Western Pacific, doesn't collapse under its debt. The US has two choices: let Japan collapse under its
debt or help finance the government by purchasing Japanese government bonds. The latter would
probably drag the dollar into the abyss, too. A collapsing Japan would leave large parts of the area to the
Chinese (having just built their first aircraft carrier).
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"The Third World War", by: The Policy Sensor, May 21, 2013
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What are the consequences of those geopolitical games? At first sight, lower oil prices might be good for
consumers (less money spent at the pump = more discretionary spending). However, tapped-out
consumers might prefer to pay down debt instead. Oil exploring / producing and service companies, on
the other hand, are quite prominent in the US high yield ("junk") corporate bond market. More
importantly, Russia has been an important export market, especially for German companies. The conflict
in Eastern Ukraine will weigh on Russian-European relations for some time to come, dampening trade.
In the end, the conflict serves as a wake-up call to Western Europe, accelerating the move towards
renewable energy sources and reducing Russia's potential oil & gas revenues.
Special Report - November 2014
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