Outline

Motivation
Basic ideas
Applications
Key insights
The future

Everyday Queues
Fast Food McDonalds, Burger King,
Retail supermarkets, stores, banks
Medical doctors office, access to
diagnostic procedures, specialist referrals
Airports check-in, baggage collection,
runway delays, waiting to land
Traffic - congestion

Queues in Manufacturing
Order backlogs
Work in process inventories
Distribution inventories
Often queue (inventory) size is limited
Number of Kanbans limits work in process
Fixed number of AGVs circulate in a loop

Queueing Theory - Basics

What determines queue lengths and waiting
times?
arrivals

(customers,
jobs)

queue

server

departures

Arrival rate= = 1/mean time between arrivals

Service rate = = 1/mean time to serve one customer

Key Ideas
Queue length, waiting time determined by
(1) Utilization of server = = /
= Job arrival rate mean time to serve each job
(2) Variability of arrivals (lowest with equally
spaced arrivals)
(3) Variability of service time (lowest is when all
jobs require exactly the same time)

Sources of Service Time Variability

Server not consistent (some variability inherent in
all repetitive tasks: depends on task (cognitive)
complexity)
Different people performing same task have
different mean times (best 2worst in manual
assembly tasks, ratio increases with task
complexity)
Mixture of different customer types, each type
takes a different time

Finite Queues
Call centers, hospitals
Number of waiting spaces is finite (and fixed)
If waiting spaces occupied arrivals are lost

Quality of Service measures:

Fraction of calls accepted
Number of attempts to obtain service
Fraction of customers served within 5 minutes (How
does a manager behave to meet this type of service
target?)

Closed Queue
2
1

Finite number of customers circulate in system

- Pallets in a manufacturing cell
- Kanban cards

Parallel Servers
How to allocate jobs
to servers?

Design: How to allocate

tasks to servers

Sometimes have
to match jobs
after service
Split and match

Queueing Theory
Why bother?
It is complex math
It is theory!
Simulation is better and easier to understand

What insights does it give?

Importance of controlling and reducing variability (similar to
TQM)

What applications does it have?

How to reduce queues or perceptions of waiting
How to design systems to reduce impact of variability

Number

Some Basic Theory

(1) L = W
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

Arrivals
Departures

L(15)
W(2)
0

L=L(t)dt/T
W=W(n)/N

10

15

20

Time

L(t)dt =W(n)

L=WN/T=W

(2) Average Queue Length Formulae

M/M/1:

L=
1

M/G/1

(1 + C )
L=
+
2(1 )
2

2
S

2 (1 + C S2 ) (C a2 + 2 C S2 )
+
G/G/1: (approx) L =
2
2
2 (1 ) (1 + C S )

(3) Loss Systems

Fraction served less than t

Impact of varying queue size limit

1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

t=10
t=5
t=2

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Fraction admitted

Fraction admitted = 1-n

=0.9

Applications
Validating complex simulation models;
Developing easy-to-implement models that help
narrow alternatives in the initial stages of system
design;
Providing insights into the importance and impact
of variability in manufacturing and services;
Suggesting alternative ways of structuring a
system and allocating tasks to people and
machines

Simulation Verification
Verification: Model gives correct answers for
given assumptions
Queueing theory applications:
Checking consistency of performance measures
L=W
=(1/)

Comparing performance with queueing formulae

Checking performance within bounds derived using
queueing theory
Perturbation analysis: what if change a parameter by a
small amount?

Number

Checking consistency of measures

L = W
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

end

start

Arrivals
Departures

10

15

20

L based on blue + yellow Time

W based on blue + green (number departing in interval)
Note: two areas not the same so L=W not true

Bounds
General single server
queue:
(1 (1 ) 2 )Ca2 + 2CS2
L
+
2(1 )
If times between arrivals are DMRL (longer time since last
arrival, more likely arrival will occur)

2Ca2 + 2CS2
+
L
2(1 )
Useful: but hard to find bounds in literature or derive new bounds

Sample Path Approach

1

A1

A2

A3

A4

A5

A6

S1

S2
D1

S3
D2

S5

S4
D3

arrivals

D4

S6
D5 D6

Dn = S n + max(Dn 1, An )
Equation describes simulation directly, can use to see impact of
changes in parameters, e.g., increasing service time

System Design: Manufacturing (1)

How many machines per operator
(machining, weaving):
Balance between operator utilization and
throughput
Same model describes productivity of cranes
and soaking pit/rolling mill system in
steelmaking
Idea of model: Closed queue (fixed number of
customers)

Central Server Queue

1
Machines
2

Repairman

System Design: Manufacturing (2)

What buffers are needed in flow
lines/transfer lines?:
With none, any failure stops the line
As buffer capacity increases, throughput
increases
As variability of repair time increases, benefit
of a given buffer capacity diminishes
If one stage much worse than rest, buffers not
much help

Flow Lines with Limited Buffers

Server blocked when storage spaces are full
1

Model (approximate) by viewing system as two 2-stage lines

1
2,1 = machine 2 + impact
of machine 1 on 2

2,3

2,1

2,3 = machine 2 + impact of

machine 3 on 2

System Design: Manufacturing (3)

FMS Design Issues:
Number of pallets required to achieve throughput
Closed queue model

Impact of product mix

Products with widely different processing times cause great
variability in processing times
Results in lowered throughput

Multiple pallet types cause problems

Increasing number of pallets for type A products reduces
throughput of type B products if type B uses different pallets

Insight: FMS best for a single product family (small cell)

Cannot handle well wide product variety (in spite of claims by
their protagonists in the 1970s and 1980s)

System Design: Manufacturing (4)

What to do about job shops?:
Job shops with a wide variety of different jobs perform
poorly
High WIP
Long delays and backlogs

Insight: Due to interaction of processing time

variability and routing variability
High processing variability: better to have high routing
variability
Low processing variability: better to have low routing
variability
High variability often comes from mixing jobs with short and
long processing times

Applications in Services
Manufacturing:
Most tasks require specialized machinery so
workers jobs defined by machinery
Tasks to make a product defined when product
designed, so known before order arrives

Services:
Many possible task packages for each worker
Dont know what tasks customers require until
they arrive

Service System Design

Alternatives
Specialization
Customer type
Task type

Diagnosis (How can I help you?)

Specialize:
High level (Lawyers)
Mid level (Car dealer service)
Low level (receptionist, help lines)

Part of service provision/rectification

May forward to a more specialized worker if proves too
complex (family practitioner)

Using Multiple Servers

With more than one server can be creative
about coping with variability
All servers do same tasks
Single queue (airline check-in/banks) vs
separate queues (McDonalds)
Queueing theory: single queue better
Practical issues

McDonalds
Prepare food

Store prepared food

Assemble order, deliver,
dispense drinks, pay
Order

Burger King*
Prepare food, assemble order
(electronic
communication)

Deliver food

Dispense drinks

Order
+ pay
Freshly prepared food, preparation
in parallel with pay
* Some outlets only - others use McDonalds format

Specialization
Specialize some servers to specific
customer classes:
(1) Customers know which server to go to:
Bank: deposits vs investments
Call center menus

(2) Customers dont know who to go to:

Lawyers, doctors, etc.
Help desks

How much specialization should be used?

Problem Solving Approaches

1

Refer hard
problems
1-p
p

Servers
deal with
all problems

p
p

manager

As p decreases solution time increases

3
4

Managers should deal with hard

problems
20

Total Queue Length

Do everything
15

No Management
10

ReferManagement
problems

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Fraction of arrivals that are problems

Supply Chain Coordination:

Modelling Material and Information Flow
Order Tags



s
6
u
u
u Store m 1
6

(m1)

PA
@
@
+ m1
Cards
@
H
HH @
Process
HH@
Tags
? Reqn.
H@
H Mgmt
u Tags
'$
(m)

Parts

(m)

Rk

- material

Order Tags

(m)

Ak

A
k

s
-?

- -

Dk

(m)

Ak

- Cell m

(m)

Dk

&%
- information

s
6
u
u
6

Ak



Store m

- Products

Split and match queues: information and material

?
u
u
u
s -?
(m+1)
Rk

Key Insights
Plan how to cope with variability
Service times
Arrivals
Routing

Try not to accentuate variability by mixing

long and short tasks, particularly if long
tasks are relatively rare

The Future
Applications:
Service system design insights
Rapid modelling of system alternatives
Spreadsheet implementation

Theory:
Bounds
Controls and priorities
When is scheduling worthwhile?