INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

Int. J. Climatol. 22: 11811196 (2002)

Published online 2 July 2002 in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI: 10.1002/joc.785

CHANGES IN SEASONAL MEAN MAXIMUM AIR TEMPERATURE

IN ROMANIA AND THEIR CONNECTION WITH LARGE-SCALE
CIRCULATION
RODICA TOMOZEIU,a,b, * ARISTITA BUSUIOCb and SABINA STEFANc
ARPAServizio Meteorologico Regionale, Viale Silvani 6, 40122 Bologna, Italy
National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Sos. Bucuresti-Ploiesti, 97, sector 1, Bucharest, Romania
c University of Bucharest, Faculty of Physics, PO Box MG-11, Bucharest, Romania
a

Received 14 May 2001

Revised 22 January 2002
Accepted 23 January 2002

ABSTRACT
This paper investigates the temporal and spatial variability of the seasonal mean of maximum air temperature in Romania
and its links with the largescale atmospheric circulation. The Romanian data sets are represented by time series at 14
stations. The large-scale parameters are represented by the observed sea-level pressure (SLP) and geopotential height at
500 hPa (Z500). The period analysed was 192298 for winter and 196098 for all seasons. Before analysis, the original
temperature data were tested to detect for inhomogeneity using the standard normal homogeneity test. Empirical orthogonal
functions (EOFs) were used to analyse the spatial and temporal variability of the local and large-scale parameters and
to eliminate noise from the original data set. The time series associated with the first EOF pattern of the SLP and mean
maximum temperature in Romania were analysed from trend and shifts point of view using the Pettitt and MannKendall
tests respectively. The covariance map computed using the Z500 and the seasonal mean of maximum temperature in
Romania were used as additional methods to identify the large-scale circulation patterns influencing the local variability.
Significant increasing trends were found for winter and summer mean maximum temperature in Romania, with upward
shifts around 1947 and 1985 respectively. During autumn, a decreasing trend with a downward shift around 1969 was
detected. These changes seem to be real, since they are connected to similar changes in the large-scale circulation. So,
the intensification of the southwesterly circulation over Europe since 1933 overlapped with the enhancement of westerly
circulation after the 1940s could be the reason for the change in winter mean maximum temperature. The slight weakening
of the southwesterly circulation during autumn could be one of the reasons for the decrease in the regime of the mean
maximum temperature for autumn seasons. Additionally, the covariance map technique reveals the influence of the North
Atlantic oscillation in winter, East Atlantic Jet in summer and Scandinavian (or Euroasia-1) circulation pattern in autumn
upon mean maximum air temperature. Copyright 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.
KEY WORDS:

spatio-temporal variability; seasonal maximum temperature; East Atlantic Jet; Scandinavian pattern; Romania

1. INTRODUCTION
Temperature and precipitation are perceived as the key elements of climate. Studies of changes in the evolution
of these parameters have become the subjects of increasing concern in the scientific community. Analysis
of the observed mean surface temperature and precipitation over the last century has revealed significant
changes. The global mean surface air temperature has increased by between about 0.3 and 0.6 C since
the late 19th century, and precipitation over land has generally increased in the extra-tropical areas with
a tendency for rainfall decline in the subtropics (Houghton et al., 1996). Some important features of the
temperature field can be revealed by analysing the extreme values of minimum and maximum temperature.
Karl et al. (1993), using monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures for over 50% of the Northern
* Correspondence to: Rodica Tomozeiu, ARPAServizio Meteorologico Regionale, Viale Silvani, 6, 40122 Bologna, Italy;
e-mail: r.tomozeiu@smr.arpa.emr.it

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Hemisphere landmass, found that the rise in the minimum temperature that has occurred is three times that of
the maximum temperature in the period 195190. Similar results were obtained at a regional scale. Brazdil
et al. (1996), analysing the trends of maximum and minimum temperatures in central and southeastern Europe
for the period 195190, found that the increase in the annual maximum temperature in central Europe is
slightly lower than that of the minimum temperature. Some seasonal characteristics can be remarked upon.
Winter maximum temperature exhibits a significant increase in central Europe, Slovenia and Hungary. In
summer and autumn, maximum temperature also increases in Germany, mid-Switzerland and Austria. The
present study seeks to fill the existing gaps (Romania) concerning the variability of the mean maximum air
temperature in southeastern Europe.
Considerable progress has been made recently in understanding the causes that determine changes in the
mean regime of the main climatic parameters. These changes can be determined by natural forcing, human
activity, or both. In order to establish whether the changes are part of the natural variability of the climate
system or are a response to anthropogenic forcing, information is needed on climate variability on a relevant
time scale. The human influence on climate was shown, for example, among others, by Schonwiese et al.
(1990) and Kaufmann and Stern (1997), who analysed temperature records covering different periods of
time. Numerous studies have proved the influence of general circulation mechanisms on the temperature
or precipitation regimes (Werner and von Storch, 1993; Fu et al., 1999; Yin et al., 2000; Quadrelli et al.,
2001). Similar studies were performed in Romania for mean air temperature and precipitation (Busuioc,
1996; Busuioc and von Storch, 1996), though extreme temperatures have been less well analysed (Busuioc
and Tomozeiu, 1998).
In the present study, an analysis of the seasonal maximum air temperature variability, including trend and
shift point analysis, over Romania is carried out by examining the observed data collected at 14 stations, for
the period covering the interval 192298. Taking into account that the time series have some missing values,
the analysis was also performed for a common period for all seasons (196098). The second aim of this
study is to detect the causes that determine the changes in the seasonal mean of maximum air temperature.
The large-scale circulation pattern influencing the mean maximum temperature variability in Romania was
identified by means of covariance maps. A correlation between the seasonal mean of maximum air temperature
and large-scale circulation indices was also performed.
The paper is organized as follows. After this introduction, Section 2 presents the data set and a brief
description of the methods used in this study. The characteristics of spatial and temporal variability of the
seasonal mean of maximum air temperature from Romania are presented in Section 3. Section 4 includes a
short description of the spatial and temporal variability of the large-scale parameter, represented here by the
sea-level pressure (SLP). The influence of the large-scale circulation upon the mean maximum temperature,
investigated by means of covariance maps, is also described in that section. The conclusions are presented in
Section 5.

2. DATA AND METHODS

The Romanian data used in this paper are the observed seasonal means of maximum air temperature during winter (DecemberFebruary), spring (MarchMay), summer (JuneAugust) and autumn
(SeptemberNovember) at 14 stations, uniformly distributed over the territory (Figure 1), between 1922
and 1998. In Figure 1 the shaded areas represent the Carpathian Mountains. As quite a lot of data were
missing in the data set, the analysis was carried out over a common period, 196098, for all seasons, and
for the winter season the analysis was also performed over the 192298 interval.
The large-scale parameters are represented by the SLP at the European scale (3055 N; 550 E), resolution
5 5 , and geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500), which covers the latitudinal belt between 20 N and
90 N (resolution 2.5 2.5 ). The pressure data are provided by the National Center for Atmospheric
Research (NCAR), for the period 190198 (Trenberth and Paolino, 1980), and geopotential height are taken
from the operational reanalysis of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP). The NCEP
reanalysis data set used in this paper covers the period 196098. In addition, some major indices have been
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Int. J. Climatol. 22: 11811196 (2002)

ROMANIAN TEMPERATURE CHANGES AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION

0
BAIA MARE

1183

150Km

OCNASUGATAG
IASI

BISTRITA

ROMAN

SIBIU
TIMISOARA
BRASOV
SULINA
TG-JIU
TURNU SEVERIN

BUCURESTI FILARET
CALARASI

CONSTANTA

Figure 1. Map of Romania showing the position of the 14 stations used in this study

used to describe well-known large-scale patterns: North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), East-Atlantic Jet (EAJ)
and Scandinavian (SCAN) pattern. The indices time series used in this paper are from the web pages at
http.//www.cpc.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/telepatcalc.html.
Taking into account that the climatological studies need long homogeneous time series where variations
are caused only by variation of weather or climate, an important problem is to analyse the homogeneity of
the data. The standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) developed by Alexandersson and Moberg (1997a,b)
is the principal tool used to detect inhomogeneities in the seasonal maximum temperature. The SNHT for
single shifts and trends was applied to the seasonal maximum temperature.
The SNHT for temperature is based upon the assumption that the difference between temperature at the
station being tested (i.e. test station) and the reference series is fairly constant in time. The method used for
the selection of reference stations takes into account the reference stations that are best correlated with the
test station. The correlation coefficient is calculated using the successive increments of the data, instead of the
values themselves. This minimizes the risk of making poor estimates of correlation between the test station
and a reference station, if one or both of them have in-homogeneities within the common time period used
for calculation of the correlation coefficients. The reference series has been constructed as a weighted mean
of the series selected as reference stations, with the correlation coefficient between the test station and the
reference station being the weight.
The results provided by the statistical test were completed with information obtained from metadata. In
Romania, a station history archive exists, but it is not complete, such that a time series was classified as
inhomogeneous if one of the following criteria was satisfied:
the series contains an inhomogeneity significant at the 5% level if it is detected by both (single shift and
trend) tests
the series contains an inhomogeneity significant at the 10% level if it is detected by at least one test and
is explainable by metadata (Hanssen-Bauer et al., 1991).
The SNHT test was used with the following constraint: if a significant break occurred within the first or last
5 years then no correction was made because there are too few years to be able to obtain a stable correction
factor (Hanssen-Bauer et al., 1991).
Various methods are used to analyse spatial and temporal variability. The trend of each time series was
detected by applying the MannKendall test (Sneyers, 1975), whereas changes of the seasonal mean of
maximum temperature were detected by the Pettitt test (Pettitt, 1979).
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R. TOMOZEIU, A. BUSUIOC AND S. STEFAN

The Pettitt test says that the series X1 , . . . , XT has a change point at moment if Xt for t = 1, . . . , has a
common distribution function F1 (x), and Xt for t = + 1, . . . , T as a common distribution function F2 (x),
and F1 (x)
= F2 (x).
The null hypothesis of no change is tested against the alternative hypothesis of change using the
non-parametric statistic (Pettitt, 1979):




kT+ = max
Ut,T
for downward shift
1tT

and




kT = min
Ut,T
for upward shift
1tT

where
Ut,T =

t
T



Di,j

with Di,j = sgn(Xi Xj )

i=1 j =t+1

On the null hypothesis, the distribution of Ut,T is symmetric about zero for each t.
The significance levels associated with the value k + or k are given approximately by the formula (Pettitt,
1979):
   

2
p = exp 6 k
T3 +T2
After finding a main change point, the time series were divided into two sub-series, each of them being tested
separately, looking for new change points. The analysis is repeated until the sub-series produced becomes
stationary. Only the period without missing values was selected. This period covers the 192298 interval for
the winter season and a common period for all seasons, namely 196098.
It should mentioned that Pettitts test is sensitive to the presence of trends, which causes the test to reject the
null hypothesis too often (Busuioc and von Storch, 1996). To exclude such artificial signals, the application
of Pettitts test to pairs of physically linked variables is recommended. This procedure will be applied in
this paper.
To investigate the spatial variability of the seasonal mean of maximum temperature, an empirical orthogonal
function (EOF) analysis was carried out. This procedure provides a method for studying the spatial and
temporal variability of long time series over large areas. The method splits the temporal variance of the
original data into orthogonal spatial patterns called empirical eigenvectors (EOFs) (Wilks, 1995; von Storch,
1995). Each eigenvector is associated with a series of time coefficients that describes the time evolution (PCs)
of the particular spatial mode. In this paper, the EOFs are defined as the eigenvectors of the correlation matrix
derived from the anomalies (computed by subtracting the long-term mean from the data) of the original data
set. The contribution of any component to the total variance in the field is given by the associated eigenvalue,
which provides a measure of its relative importance (Wilks, 1995).
The temporal variability of the time series associated with the main EOF modes (PCs) was investigated, the
results being compared with those obtained at each station. In this way the performance of the EOF analysis
to extract the signal from data set is proved. Therefore, in the further analysis the time series associated with
a few EOFs are used instead of time series at the 14 stations.
In order to detect the reasons, which could lead to changes in the seasonal mean of maximum temperature
in Romania, the EOF analysis was performed for the large-scale parameter represented by the SLP. The time
series (PCs) associated with the first two EOF patterns were analysed from the trend and shift point of view,
the results being compared with those obtained by analysing the temperature field. If simultaneous changes
in the local and large-scale parameters were found, this could lead to the idea that the changes at the large
scale determine the changes at the local scale.
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1185

The relationship between regional surface data and large-scale upper-air fields has been investigated by
means of covariance maps computed using the PCs of the seasonal anomalies of mean maximum temperature
and the geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500) from 1960 to 1998. The second method used to detect the
main large-scale circulation patterns, which could influence the seasonal mean of maximum temperature in
Romania, is based on the correlation between the temperature PCs and the indices associated with the pattern
provided by the covariance maps.
One of the most important patterns controlling the climate in the AtlanticEuropean region is the NAO.
This pattern, which is most clearly identified during the cold months, was firstly identified in the SLP field.
It has also been found in the middle troposphere (Barnston and Livezey, 1987). The NAO combines parts of
the East Atlantic and West Atlantic patterns, and consists of a northsouth dipole of anomalies. One centre
is located over Greenland and the other one of opposite sign spans the central latitudes of the North Atlantic
between 35 N and 40 N.
The EAJ pattern is another important mode of low-frequency variability found over the North Atlantic,
appearing between April and August. This pattern consists of a northsouth dipole structure of anomaly
centres, with one main centre located over the high latitudes of the eastern North Atlantic and Scandinavia, and
the other centre located over Northern Africa and the Mediterranean Sea (http.//www.cpc.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/telepatcalc.html).
SCA, or Euroasia-1 as referred to by Barnston and Livezey (1987), is a prominent mode of low-frequency
variability that appears in all months except June and July. This pattern consists of a primary centre, which
spans Scandinavia and large portions of the Arctic Ocean north of Siberia. Two additional weaker centres
with opposite sign to the Scandinavian centre are located over Western Europe and over the Mongolia area.

3. TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AIR

TEMPERATURE
Before starting the trend analysis, the homogeneity of the 14 mean maximum temperature time series was
tested. The SNHT test was applied for each season and for two sub-intervals: 192260 and 196098. The
data over the interval 192260 are homogeneous, except data from Ocna Sugatag station, which presents an
inhomogeneity (0.05 significance level) in the winter 193940. The inhomogeneity year detected at the Ocna
Sugatag station is confirmed by metadata, which mentioned that in 1940 the station was removed. Taking
into account the above result, the winter maximum series from Ocna Sugatag was adjusted, this new series
then being used in the study.
The seasonal maximum temperatures from the second period (196098) are homogeneous, such that the
original series were used in analysis.
3.1. Trends and changes in the seasonal maximum air temperature
Trend analysis for the seasonal mean of maximum temperature in Romania was performed using the
MannKendall test. In order to capture the real variability of the temperature fields the time series as long
as possible were analysed. Table I presents the MannKendall statistics and the linear regression coefficients
( C/decade) for winter maximum temperature, the significant results (at least 0.05 significance level) being
in bold type.
An increasing trend in the winter mean of maximum air temperature was detected when the time series
over the 192298 period were analysed. The results are generally significant in the southern part of Romania
(Table I). Similar results were obtained when the analysis was repeated for the 196098 interval (Table II), but
these were less significant than in the 192298 period. As can be observed, the spring maximum temperatures
(Table II, columns 4 and 5) do not show a significant trend. Summer time series are characterized by a positive
trend during the 196098 period, and were more significant from a statistical point of view in the southern
part of country (Table II). A significant negative trend was found in the autumn maximum air temperature.
The regression coefficients ( C/decade) computed for each season are also presented in Table II.
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R. TOMOZEIU, A. BUSUIOC AND S. STEFAN

Table I. The results of trend analysis (MannKendall statistics) of the winter

mean of maximum air temperature in Romania during the 192298 period. The
significant results are marked in bold type (0.05 significance level)
Station

Baia Mare
Bistrita
Brasov
Bucuresti
Calarasi
Constanta
Iasi
Ocna Sugatag
Roman
Sibiu
Sulina
Timisoara
Tg.Jiu
Turnu Severin

Winter Period

Mann-Kendall
statistics

Trend
( C/decade)

195098
194598
192298
187798
192298
192298
192298
192298
192298
192298
194698
192298
192298
192298

0.6
0.5
3.4
4.3
3.1
2.9
2.1
0.5
0.6
3.4
1.0
1.7
2.3
3.2

0.1
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3

Taking into account the results presented above, a change point analysis (Pettitt test) was performed for
the seasons that showed a significant trend, namely: winter, summer and autumn. A significant upward shift
was detected in winter around 1947 at all stations, except Baia Mare, Bistrita and Sulina. Summer mean
maximum temperature exhibits an upward shift around 1985 (less significant at Bistrita and Iasi stations),
and autumn reveals a significant downward shift point around 1969. An example of a change point detected
in winter (a), summer (b) and autumn (c) at Calarasi station is presented in Figure 2. Using the shift point
detected by Pettitt-test-like criteria, each seasonal time series was divided into two sub-series and the Pettitt
test was applied again. The analysis performed for the sub-series did not reveal significant changes.
3.2. Spatial variability of seasonal maximum air temperature in Romania
The characteristics of spatial variability of seasonal mean maximum temperature are provided by the EOF
analysis. Taking into account the results obtained by analysing the seasonal temperature time series for each
station (Section 3.1), the EOF technique was applied only for seasons with significant changes (winter, summer
and autumn). The EOF analysis was performed over the 192298 interval for winter temperature and over the
196098 for all seasons using the complete data set. In order to test the robustness of the EOF decomposition,
the method was also applied for summer and autumn temperatures over the long period (192298), but for
less stations because of missing data. The patterns for both periods are very similar, confirming their stability.
The patterns provided by this method show the main spatial features of the mean maximum temperature
variability (namely the areas with the same climate variability), whereas their coefficient time series (PCs)
describe the dominant time variability in the data set. Table III presents the variance explained by the first
three EOFs corresponding to the winter, summer and autumn seasons.
The first EOF pattern is characterized by the same sign in all seasons, with higher values (that means higher
variability) in the region situated inside of the Carpathian chain (intra-Carpathian area). The second EOF
pattern presents a dipolar structure in all seasons, showing the topography influence (Carpathian Mountains)
on the temperature distribution. Thus, two regions, intra-Carpathian and extra-Carpathian, placed inside and
outside of the Carpathian chain, with opposite sign of variability are revealed. As an example, the patterns
of the first two EOFs for the autumn mean maximum temperature are presented in Figure 3. Similar results
(not shown) were obtained for winter and summer mean maximum temperatures.
Copyright 2002 Royal Meteorological Society

Int. J. Climatol. 22: 11811196 (2002)

Copyright 2002 Royal Meteorological Society

Baia Mare
Bistrita
Brasov
Bucuresti
Calarasi
Constanta
Iasi
Ocna Sugatag
Roman
Sibiu
Sulina
Timisoara
Tg.Jiu
Turnu Severin

Station

1.0
0.3
1.1
1.8
1.5
1.2
1.6
0.7
2.9
1.2
1.0
0.9
2.6
2.5

Mann-Kendall
statistics
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.5

Trend
( C/decade)

Winter 196098

0.4
0.4
0.3
1.0
0.8
1.6
0.6
0.1
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.3
1.4
1.8

Mann-Kendall
statistics
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.2

Trend
( C/decade)

Spring 196098

0.9
0.8
2.2
1.8
2.4
2.4
0.6
1.3
0.2
1.5
2.0
0.7
2.1
1.7

Mann-Kendall
statistics
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.2

Trend
( C/decade)

Summer 196098

0.4
3.0
2.5
1.5
1.9
1.9
2.8
2.6
2.3
3.1
2.5
2.5
2.4
1.8

Mann-Kendall
statistics

0.2
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.3

Trend
( C/decade)

Autumn 196098

Table II. The results of trend analysis (MannKendall statistics) of the seasonal mean of maximum air temperature in Romania during the 196098 period. The
significant results are marked in bold type (0.05 significance level)

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R. TOMOZEIU, A. BUSUIOC AND S. STEFAN

(a)

10.0
8.0
6.0

T(C)

4.0
2.0
0.0
2.0

1947

4.0
1922

1932

1942

1952

1962

1972

1982

1992

Years
(b)

31.0
30.0

T(C)

29.0
28.0
1985

27.0
26.0
1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

Years
(c)

22.0

T(C)

20.0
18.0
16.0
19 69
14.0
1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

Years
Figure 2. Shift points in the mean maximum air temperature at Calarasi station during winter (a), summer (b), and autumn (c) seasons

Table III. The variance explained by the first three EOFs corresponding to winter,
summer autumn seasons
Season

Period of analysis

EOF 1 (%)

EOF 2 (%)

EOF 3 (%)

Winter
Summer
Autumn

192298
196098
196098

84.8
71.7
80.6

6.4
11.9
9.4

4.0
4.7
3.1

The time coefficient series (PC1 and PC2) associated with the first two EOF patterns corresponding to
winter, summer and autumn were analysed from the trend and change points of view. Figure 4 displays
the temporal evolution of the PC1 for winter (a), summer (b) and autumn (c). A significant increasing
trend (MannKendall test) was detected in winter and summer, whereas in the autumn season a significant
decreasing trend is noted. The Pettitt test applied to the above PCs shows shifts similar to those presented for
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1189

(a)
OCNASUGATAG
1.15

BAIA MARE
1.23

BISTRITA
1.32

SIBIU
1.34

1.26
TIMISOARA

1.34
IASI
ROMAN
1.25

1.28
BRASOV

TG-JIU 1.09
TURNU SEVERIN
0.9

SULINA
0.9

BUCURESTI FILARET
1.1
CALARASI
1.17

CONSTANTA
0.8

(b)
OCNASUGATAG
0.54

BAIA MARE
0.64

BISTRITA
0.57

0.19
SIBIU
TIMISOARA
0.32

0.35
IASI
ROMAN
0.4

0.15
BRASOV
SULINA
0.27

TG-JIU 0.14
TURNU SEVERIN
0.27

0.51
BUCURESTI FILARET
CALARASI
0.37

CONSTANTA
0.44

Figure 3. The first (a) and second (b) EOF pattern of the mean maximum air temperature during the autumn season

the individual station time series. A similar analysis was performed for PC2 corresponding to each season, the
results being statistically insignificant. In order to find a physical explanation for the changes detected in the
mean maximum temperature in Romania during winter, summer and autumn, the large-scale SLP variability
was investigated. Therefore, the EOF analysis for the SLP on a European scale for the above seasons was
also done. The results are presented in Section. 4
4. CONNECTION BETWEEN SEASONAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IN ROMANIA AND
LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION
4.1. Spatial variability of seasonal SLP at European scale provided by EOF technique
The EOF analysis was performed for European SLP, in winter, summer and autumn seasons. The first
EOF pattern in wintertime over the 192298 interval (not shown), which explains 51% of the total variance,
represents a southwesterly circulation over Romania. The PC1 associated with this pattern reveals an increasing
trend with an upward shift around 1933. This result leads to the idea that, starting in 1933, the southwesterly
circulation over Europe was more frequent. The results are in agreement with those obtained by Busuioc
and von Storch (1996), where the SLP from 190187 was analysed. In a previous paper, Busuioc and
Tomozeiu (1998), using canonical correlation analysis, suggested a physically plausible mechanism to explain
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R. TOMOZEIU, A. BUSUIOC AND S. STEFAN

(a)

PC1_winter

1
0
1
2
3
1922

1932

1942

1952

1962

1972

1982

1992

1990

1995

Years

PC1_summer

(b)

3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

Years
(c)

PC1_autumn

2
1
0
1
2
3
1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

Years
Figure 4. Coefficient time series of the first EOF (PC1) for: winter (a), summer (b) and autumn (c). The means of two sub-intervals
determined by the shift point are also marked

the changes in the winter mean of maximum temperature in Romania, namely an increase of the frequency
of the westerly circulations around the 1940s. This mechanism was enhanced by that mentioned above
(i.e. an intensification of the southwesterly circulation after the 1930s as well), which mostly affects the
extra-Carpathian areas, and may justify the warming being more marked in these areas.
The first EOF pattern of the summer SLP, computed for the period 196098, which explains 38% of the
total variance, reveals a easterlynortheasterly circulation over the Romanian territory (Figure 5(a)) given by
the positive anomaly field over Europe. The analysis of the time series associated with this pattern (PC1)
reveals a slightly increasing trend (Figure 5(b)).
The first EOF pattern of the autumn SLP, which explains 47% of the total variance (Figure 6(a)), suggests
a southwesterly circulation over Romania. The PC1 associated with the above configuration (Figure 6(b))
presents a slightly decreasing trend and a downward shift point around 1968 (0.1 significance level).
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Int. J. Climatol. 22: 11811196 (2002)

ROMANIAN TEMPERATURE CHANGES AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION

(a)

54N
52N
50N
48N
46N
44N
42N
40N
38N
36N
34N
32N
30N

0.5

0.7

0.4
0.3

0.5
0.4

0.3
0.3

5E
(b)

1191

10E 15E 20E

25E 30E 35E 40E 45E 50E

3
2

PC1

1
0
1
2
3
1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

Years
Figure 5. The pattern of the first EOF (a) and the temporal evolution of the PC1 (b) computed for summer SLP field

Therefore, considering the explanation presented above, the increasing trend detected in the summer
mean maximum temperature could be due to a slight intensification of the easterlynortheasterly circulation
(carrying a warm and dry continental air mass). The downward shift point in the autumn mean maximum
temperature detected around 1969 could be due to a slight decrease in the frequency of the southwesterly
circulation, especially after 1968. These conclusions are further corroborated when the link between PC1 of
summer/autumn mean maximum temperature and circulation indices is analysed. These results are presented
below.
The changes in seasonal mean maximum temperature in Romania (winter, summer and autumn) presented
in this section were explained by changes in the first mode of the atmospheric circulation variability on the
European scale given by the EOF analysis. For the winter season an additional explanation was given by
Busuioc and Tomozeiu (1998) using canonical correlation analysis, which selects optimum correlated spatial
patterns.
In the following, the changes detected in seasonal maximum temperature are additionally explained by
investigating the relationship between seasonal maximum temperature and upper air fields by means of
covariance maps computed using the first two temperature PCs and the 500 hPa geopotential height. The
method is also applied for winter season, even if the period 196098 could not catch the shift point detected
around 1947. The idea is to identify the main patterns that could influence the variability of maximum winter
temperature in Romania. An interesting result is related by the covariance map of PC1 and winter Z500
anomaly (Figure 7). This pattern closely resembles one of the dominant European patterns, namely the NAO.
A good correlation was found between the winter NAO index and the PC1 temperature (196098 period),
namely 0.54 (0.02 significance level); this confirms the possible influence on the winter Romanian climate.
Hurrell (1995) analysed the decadal trends in the NAO and revealed a strong positive NAO index in recent
decades. This is connected to a reinforcement of the westerlies in the northeast Atlantic and a warmer winter
than normal.
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Int. J. Climatol. 22: 11811196 (2002)

1192

R. TOMOZEIU, A. BUSUIOC AND S. STEFAN

(a)

54N

52N
50N
48N
46N
44N
42N
40N
38N
36N
34N
32N
32N
5E
(b)

10E

15E

20E

25E

1968

1972

30E

35E

40E

45E

50E

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

PC1

2
1
0
1
2
1960

1964

1976

Years
Figure 6. As Figure 5, but for autumn season
140E

160E

180E

150E

140E

10
0

120W

120E

10
0

100W

100E

80W

80E
60N
0

0
10
20 40N

60W

60E
10

10

20N
60W

20W

20E

40E

Figure 7. The covariance map between PC1 and Z500 winter season

Copyright 2002 Royal Meteorological Society

Int. J. Climatol. 22: 11811196 (2002)

ROMANIAN TEMPERATURE CHANGES AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION

140W

(a)

160W

180

160E

1193

140E

120E

120W

0
4

100W

100E

80N
80E

80W

60N

0
60W

60E

40N
0

0
20N

40W
(b)

20W

20E

40E

2.0
1.5

EAJ_index

1.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

Years
Figure 8. (a) The covariance map between PC1 and Z500 summer season; (b) trends and shift point in the EAJ index time series

Figure 8(a) presents the covariance map between the Z500 (summer) and the first PC of mean maximum
air temperature. This structure bears some resemblance to the positive phase of the EAJ, with one (negative)
centre over the far eastern North Atlantic and Scandinavia and the other one (positive) over Eastern Europe,
influencing also the Mediterranean area. Romania is included in the area with high positive coefficients;
this means that large values of mean maximum temperature in Romania tend to be associated with large
values of Z500 in southern Europe and small values of Z500 in the eastern North Atlantic and Scandinavia.
The correlation coefficient computed between the EAJ summer index and PC1 of the summer maximum air
temperature is 0.5. The trend test (MannKendall) applied to the EAJ summer index (Figure 8(b)) shows
a significant increasing trend (0.05 significance level) and the Pettitt test reveals a significant upward shift
around 1984 (0.05 significance level). The period 198693 is characterized by the positive phase of the EAJ
(Figure 8(b)). The persistence of the positive phase of the EAJ pattern reflects an intensification of westerlies
over central latitudes in the eastern North Atlantic and over almost the whole of Europe. Therefore, the
increase detected in the summer mean maximum temperature, and the corresponding change point around
1985, could be due to more frequent positive phases of the EAJ, especially after 1984.
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Int. J. Climatol. 22: 11811196 (2002)

1194

R. TOMOZEIU, A. BUSUIOC AND S. STEFAN

The covariance map between the autumn Z500 and the first PC of mean maximum temperature (Figure 9(a))
closely resembles the positive phase of the SCAN pattern, or Euroasia-1 as referred to by Barnston and
Livezey (1987). The pattern has one centre situated at 6070 N, 3050 E. Two additional weaker centres
with opposite sign to those of the SCAN ones are located at 4050 N, 70110 E and 5055 N, 10 E20 W.
The correlation coefficient between the SCAN index and PC1 of autumn maximum temperature is 0.45.
The positive phase of this pattern is associated with positive height anomalies, sometimes reflecting major
blocking anticyclones over Scandinavia and western Russia, whereas the negative phase of the pattern is
associated with negative height anomalies over these regions. The index of the SCAN pattern (Figure 9(b))
reveals a significant negative trend during the 196098 period and a downward change point around 1968,
similar to those obtained for the mean maximum temperature in Romania. Therefore, changes in the mean
maximum air temperature in Romania during the autumn season could be due to more frequent negative
phases of the SCAN pattern after 1968.

(a)

160 E

150

180 E

140 E

140 E

120 W

120 E

7.5

0
7.5

100 W

100 E

7.5

80 N

80 W

80 E
7.5

60 N
7.5
0

0
7.5

60 W

60 E

40 N

20 N

20 W

(b)

2.0

Scandinavian index

40 W

1.0

40 E

20 E

0.0
1.0
2.0
1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

Years
Figure 9. (a) As in Figure 7, but for autumn season; (b) trends and shift point in the SCAN index time series
Copyright 2002 Royal Meteorological Society

Int. J. Climatol. 22: 11811196 (2002)

ROMANIAN TEMPERATURE CHANGES AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION

1195

5. CONCLUSIONS AND REMARKS

Some conclusions may be drawn from this study with respect to the physical mechanisms responsible for the
changes in the seasonal mean maximum temperature in Romania. These mechanisms were investigated in
two ways. Firstly, the similarity between changes in the large-scale circulation represented by the SLP field
and changes in the seasonal mean of maximum temperature in Romania were analysed. Before analysis, the
EOF technique was used as a data filtering procedure to eliminate noise. Thus, the main characteristics of
the spatial and temporal variability of the SLP and mean maximum Romanian temperature were revealed.
The main modes of the SLP variability represented by circulation patterns were also identified by the
EOF analysis. Therefore, the time series associated with the first EOF pattern (PC1) of the SLP and mean
maximum temperature in Romania were analysed from the trend and shift points of view using the Pettitt
and MannKendall tests respectively.
Significant increasing trends were found for winter and summer mean maximum temperatures in Romania,
with upward shifts around 1947 and 1985 respectively. During autumn, a decreasing trend with a downward
shift around 1969 was detected. These changes seem to be real, since similar changes in the large-scale
circulation were found. For the winter case, the intensification of the southwesterly circulation over Europe
(as the principal mode of the SLP variability) since 1933 could be one reason. This mechanism is consistent
with the findings of Busuioc and Tomozeiu (1998), who used canonical correlation analysis; namely an
enhancement of the westerly circulation after the 1940s, could be the real reason behind the increasing
trend in the winter maximum temperature in Romania. These results are in agreement with those presented
by Busuioc (1996) for winter mean temperature in Romania. The intensification of the westerlies is also
confirmed by the frequently positive phase of the NAO during recent decades.
The slight intensification of the easterly circulation during summer and a slight weakening of the
southwesterly circulation during autumn could be the reasons for the increase/decrease in the regime of
the mean maximum temperature for the summer/autumn seasons.
The covariance map, computed using the geopotential height at 500 hPa and the first PC of temperature,
was the second method used to identify the connection with the large-scale circulation patterns.
The covariance maps revealed the influence of the EAJ and SCAN pattern on the mean maximum
temperature in Romania, during summer and autumn respectively. The significant upward shift around 1984
detected in the EAJ index justifies the similar shift detected in the summer mean maximum temperature in
Romania, and the downward shift around 1968 of the SCAN index justifies similar changes in the autumn
mean maximum temperature.
The trend results presented in this paper are in agreement with those presented by Brazdil et al. (1996) for
central Europe and some parts of Southern Europe. This leads to the conclusion that the changes in the mean
maximum temperature in Romania are controlled by real large-scale physical mechanisms.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

NCEP reanalysis data were provided by the NOAACIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO, USA,
from their website at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/. One of the authors, Rodica Tomozeiu, undertook this work
with the support of the ICTP Programme for Training and Research in Italian Laboratories, Trieste, Italy.
The helpful comments of two anonymous reviewers are appreciated.
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