Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
From Asia to the Americas, populations are getting oldera trend that
is likely to continue for decades to come. So far, however, while perhaps
acknowledging the existence of this trend, policy makers and business leaders
have done little to prepare for it. In many cases, this inaction stems from
misconceptions about older workers and consumers. We have identified
seven common myths surrounding aging populations and highlight how
organizations can find growth where others see only cost and limitations.
Were none of us getting any younger,
the saying goes, and its as true today as
ever. Whats different today, however, is
that the global population isnt getting
any younger either. In fact, because
people are living longer and having fewer
children, its aging rapidly. Whereas today
the global population aged 60 or over
numbers nearly 750 million (more than
10 percent of the overall population), by
2050 its expected to soar to more than 2
billion (perhaps exceeding 20 percent of
the overall population). Of the forces that
will shape society and the global economy
over the next decades, none is more certain
and predictable than population aging. In
China and Japan this has led to inverted
family pyramids, also called four, two,
one in reference to four grandparents, two
parents, and one child.
Despite the likelihood that the planets
population will steadily become much older
over the next four decades, many business
leaders and policymakers dont have a good
grasp of the realities of population aging.
In our conversations with leaders in both
2 | Accenture Institute for High Performance | Copyright 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved.
over 60
Brazil
2010
2030
2050
China
Mexico
35%
25%
15%
5%
5%
3 | Accenture Institute for High Performance | Copyright 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved.
15%
25%
35%
165
20
160
19
155
18
150
17
145
16
140
15
135
14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP, increment in alternative trajectory, constant 2010 prices (left scale)
GDP, current trajectory, constant 2010 prices (left scale)
Employment, alternative trajectory (right scale)
Employment, current trajectory (right scale)
Source: Accenture, 2011.
4 | Accenture Institute for High Performance | Copyright 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved.
Employment (million)
5 | Accenture Institute for High Performance | Copyright 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved.
6 | Accenture Institute for High Performance | Copyright 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved.
7 | Accenture Institute for High Performance | Copyright 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved.
Demography is destiny,
the sociologist Auguste
Comte stated almost two
hundred years ago. This may
well be true, but that destiny
is not immutable. Just as
aging individuals must adjust
life styles to maintain
personal vitality, societies
with aging populations must
adjust business practices
and policies to boost their
economic vigor.
About Accenture
Accenture is a global management
consulting, technology services and
outsourcing company, with more
than 244,000 people serving clients
in more than 120 countries. Combining
unparalleled experience, comprehensive
capabilities across all industries and
business functions, and extensive research
on the worlds most successful companies,
Accenture collaborates with clients to help
them become high-performance businesses
and governments. The company generated
net revenues of US$25.5 billion for the
fiscal year ended Aug. 31, 2011. Its home
page is www.accenture.com.
Notes
1 United Nations Population Division, 2011.
2 Office of National Statistics, 2011.
3 Goldman Sachs Asset Management, BRIC fund,
October 31, 2011.
4 United Nations Population Division, 2011.
5 United Nations Population Division, 2012
6 OECD, Paying for the past, providing for the future:
intergenerational solidarity, May 2011.
7 Personnel Today, Government confirms abolition of
Default Retirement Age, January 13, 2011.
8 OECD, Society at a Glance, 2009.
9 DWP, The macroeconomic impact from extending
working lives, 2011.
10 OECD 2012.
11 Baker, Gruber and Milligan, The interaction of youth
and elderly labor markets in Canada, NBER, 2010.
12 Encore Careers corporate website.
13 Brsch-Supan, Axel and Matthias Weiss, Productivity
and Age: Evidence from Work Team at the Assembly
Line, 2011.
14 Ibid.
15 Malmberg B. et al, Productivity consequences of workforce aging: stagnation or Horndal effect? Population
and Development Review, Vol 34, 2008.
16 Bauer N. and Mauermann H., How BMW is defusing
the demographic time bomb, Harvard Business Review,
March 2010.
17 Business Week, Old. Smart. Productive, June 27,
2005.
18 Arrington Michael, Internet entrepreneurs are like
professional athletes, they peak around 25, April 30,
2011, TechCrunch.com.
19 Kaufman Foundation, Anatomy of an entrepreneur,
2009.
20 NESTA, The grey economy: third age entrepreneurs
critical to growth, 2009.
21 Office for National Statistics.
22 NB: Small companies are those with fewer than 50
employees.
23 Kautonen, Understanding the older entrepreneur:
Comparing third age and prime age entrepreneurs in
Finland, 2008.
24 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, United States,
2010.
25 Barclays, Third age entrepreneur: profiting from experience, April 2011.
26 CSR Europe.
27 Metz, D. and Underwood M., Older, Richer, Fitter:
Identifying the customer needs of Britains ageing
population, 2005, p.151f.
28 US Census Bureau 2010.
29 NielsenWire, Why marketers cant afford to ignore
baby boomers, July 19, 2010.
30 Willets D., The Pinch: how the baby boomers took
their childrens future and why they should give it
back, 2010.
31 Europes Information Society portal.
32 Harley Davidson corporate website.
33 DeStatis, In the spotlight: older people in Germany
and the EU, December 2011.
34 AARP website.