The Sirisena Campaign needs to

pick up from Uva

by Harim Peiris-December 2, 2014

Kicking off his election campaign in his

native Polonaruwa, with his first election rally, the Maithripala Sirisena,
common opposition campaign is gaining momentum. Increasing the
exodus from the UPFA was Nuwara Elisa District parliamentarian Navin
Dissanayake, the Minister for Public Management Reforms, who resigned
from the government and pledged his support to Maithripala Sirisena. He
was preceded late last week by Hunais Farook, MP from the Vanni, who
also crossed over to the opposition. While not a flood, the breakaway from
the UPFA has been ongoing and despite offers of fabulous sums of money,
there seem to be no takers, at least at the time of writing this article, for
the Rajapakses filthy lucre. Further the opposition parties and civil society
groups have finalized a minimum common program around redemocratizing Sri Lanka, which includes abolition of the executive
presidency. What was believed to be impossible only a few months ago,
that the opposition would unite around a common candidate has now
become a reality. As Buddhism teaches us nothing is permanent in life. Not
even the seemingly invincible Rajapakse Administration.
The Mahinda Rajapakse campaign is
in complete disarray

Meanwhile the Mahinda Rajapakse campaign is in complete disarray. It has

still not recovered from the failure of its secret police to inform it of the
impending political storm and it has no clear message or strategy. It spent
the week trying to prevent further crossovers to the opposition and get a
prize cross over to the for an astronomical price and it was not successful
in either.
Further the Rajapakse campaign lacks any clear or cogent message. He
has yet to explain to the people why he has gone for elections two years
before his second term is up, with his eligibility for a third term itself
disputed. A set of infrastructure plans does not constitute a political vision
and the Rajapakse campaign lacks any clear message to voters. In the
absence of a message, the opposition now has the luxury of defining the
proposed Rajapakse third term as a really bad idea for a variety of
reasons, linked to his governance track record.
President Rajapakses election brain trust has not really adjusted to the
fact that the situation in January 2015 is completely different from when
he ran in January 2010. Then he was the President who had presided over
winning the war only seven months earlier and a duly grateful electorate
reelected him comfortably. But in 2015, he can no longer run on the war
victory, that would suffice once and soon after the war. President
Rajapakse understood this, then and now, which is why he advanced his
election even in 2010. However, now he will be judged as least by the
floating, uncommitted voter on his track record of the past five years and
what it indicates for the next seven years.
Uva was an effective defeat for President Rajapakse
The Uva election was quite a disaster for the Rajapakse Administration.
They managed to hang onto power, but only just. It was not enough to
conceal the fact that support was slipping for the regime. This perception
of support is an important aspect of the Rajapakse regime. At the grass
roots, every abuse of the system and the complete erosion of the
separation of the ruling party and the state machinery is done and this
ensures that a significant section of its support comes from people who
credibly believe that the morning after the election; the Rajapakse regime
will still hold sway. In a provincial election, the opposition vote is only a
protest vote. This is also why the election turnout is about 62% to 65% for
provincial elections, while the national elections would see turnouts of
between 75% to 80%. These additional voters have only to vote in a

greater proportion for the opposition, to see the required swing towards it.
The Uva provincial election was fought with way more weaknesses for the
opposition than the presidential election will be. Then the opposition was
not united. Now they are. Then the serious slippage of support for the
Rajapakses was an untested thesis, after the results and the breakaways,
it is now confirmed. A provincial election is not a government changing
election; a presidential election is a chance for real and lasting change,
both for good and for bad. Amarasiri Dodangoda is not a political
household name. But in 1993, as SLFP candidate for Chief Minister of the
Southern Province, he defeated the UNP and set the stage up for the
Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, clean sweep the next year. Young
Harin Fernando may not have quite piped Shasendra Rajapakse to the post
in the earlier Uva provincial race, but he wounded them sufficiently and
exposed the weaknesses openly enough for, Maithripala Sirisena to seem
very likely to complete the job.
An effective shift in the balance of social and political forces in the country
There is an effective shift in the balance of social and political forces in the
country, post the Uva provincial council elections. The mere coming
together of the opposition to support a common candidate is in itself a
significant game changer. The absence of everyone joining the same
platform is not a loss, the support from outside is a common practice, such
as in India. The important thing being that that parties not formally in the
alliance are not running their own candidate and are especially strongly
criticizing the incumbent. From the Sinhala nationalist JHU, to heavy
weights from the SLFP, to the Muslim Peoples Congress, the JVP, the TNA
and General Fonsekas Democrats are all informing the country that a third
Rajapakse term is a really very bad idea. Add to that the Bar Association,
the University Teachers and other professional groups. Countering that
seem to be largely just the Rajapakses. In an election of the Rajapakses
verses the rest, they may find that unlike the low turnout and high mal
practice Uva provincial election, they may well not prevail.
Posted by Thavam