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institution to be
evaluated on an equal footing. Each type of risks is measured to
determine both the expected and
unexpected losses using VaR or worst-case type analytical model. Key to
RAROC is the
matching of revenues, costs and risks on transaction or portfolio basis
over a defined time period.
This begins with a clear differentiation between expected and
unexpected losses. Expected losses
are covered by reserves and provisions and unexpected losses require
capital allocation which is
determined on the principles of confidence levels, time horizon,
diversification and correlation.
In this approach, risk is measured in terms of variability of income.
Under this framework, the
frequency distribution of return, wherever possible is estimated and the
Standard Deviation (SD)
of this distribution is also estimated. Capital is thereafter allocated to
activities as a function of
this risk or volatility measure. Then, the risky position is required to
carry an expected rate of
return on allocated capital, which compensates the bank for the
associated incremental risk. By
dimensioning all risks in terms of loss distribution and allocating
capital by the volatility of the
new activity, risk is aggregated and priced.
The second approach is similar to the RAROC, but depends less on
capital allocation and more
on cash flows or variability in earnings. This is referred to as EaR, when
employed to analyse
interest rate risk. Under this analytical framework also frequency
distribution of returns for any
one type of risk can be estimated from historical data. Extreme outcome
can be estimated from
the tail of the distribution. Either a worst-case scenario could be used or
Standard Deviation
1/2/2.69 could also be considered. Accordingly, each bank can restrict
the maximum potential
loss to certain percentage of past/current income or market value.
Thereafter, rather than moving
RAROC Methodology
Risk Management: Includes the measurement of portfolio exposure, the
volatility and
correlations of the risks factors.
face the new challenges. They have realised that the bottom-line is very
critical and
demonstrated their will and skills in changing colours.