Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
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24
100
7000
Unit margin
$18
Fair
0.35
Likelihoods of test market results (along side), given national market results (along top) from historical data
Great
Fair
Great
0.64
0.18
Fair
0.26
0.57
Awful
0.10
0.25
Awful
0.20
Awful
0.09
0.48
0.43
No
Great
45.0%
Natl mkt?
#NAME?
Yes
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
$3,800
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
($1,600)
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
($5,380)
#NAME?
EVPI
#NAME?
No
Fair
35.0%
Natl mkt?
#NAME?
Yes
No
Awful
20.0%
Natl mkt?
#NAME?
Yes
EVPI calculation
EMV with free PI
EMV with no Info
EVPI
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
60%
Probability
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
-1700
6.3000%
#3
-100
63.1000%
#4
3700
28.8000%
4000
3000
2000
1000
-1000
-2000
-3000
-4000
-5000
-6000
0%
Test market?
Acme
796.76
36.9%
Great
National market?
2330.24
78.05%
Great
$10,800
Yes
TRUE
-7000
2330.24
Fair
17.07%
6.3%
-1700
$1,620
Yes
TRUE
-100
796.76
TRUE
No
0
Fair
41.25%
-100
TRUE
No
0
Awful
-100
National market?
21.85%
41.25%
National market?
-100
21.85%
-100
3700
$5,400
4.88%
Awful
28.8%
1.8%
-5480
Expected Value
3000
2500
2000
No
1500
Yes
1000
500
0
No
Value
Yes
#1
Value
$8
Change (%)
-55.56%
Change (%)
0
-100.00%
#2
$10
-43.21%
-100.00%
#3
$12
-30.86%
#4
$15
-18.52%
#5
$17
-6.17%
#6
$19
6.17%
510.6666667
#7
$21
18.52%
#8
$24
#9
$26
#10
$28
Value
-100
Change (%)
-112.55%
-100
-112.55%
-100.00%
-100
-112.55%
-100.00%
152.36
-80.88%
-100.00%
581.96
-26.96%
-35.91%
1011.56
26.96%
1384
73.70%
1512.38
89.82%
30.86%
2257.333333
183.31%
2250.18
182.42%
43.21%
3130.666667
292.92%
3030.666667
280.37%
55.56%
4004
402.54%
3904
389.98%
$30
$25
$20
$15
$5
$10
-500
Expected Value
2000
1000
0
No
-1000
Yes
-2000
-3000
-4000
No
#1
Value
$8
#2
$10
-43.21%
#3
$12
-30.86%
#4
$15
-18.52%
#5
$17
#6
$19
#7
Yes
Value
-3856
Change (%)
-5310.81%
-100.00%
-2982.666667
-4130.63%
-100.00%
-2109.333333
-2950.45%
-100.00%
-1236
-1770.27%
-6.17%
-100.00%
-362.6666667
-590.09%
6.17%
-100.00%
510.6666667
590.09%
$21
18.52%
-100.00%
1384
1770.27%
#8
$24
30.86%
-100.00%
2257.333333
2950.45%
#9
$26
43.21%
-100.00%
3130.666667
4130.63%
#10
$28
55.56%
-100.00%
4004
5310.81%
$30
$25
$20
$15
$5
$10
-5000
Expected Value
-1000
-2000
No
Yes
-3000
-4000
No
Yes
#1
Value
$8
Value
Change (%)
-4866.956522 -4766.96%
#2
$10
-43.21%
-100
0.00%
-4246.666667
-4146.67%
#3
$12
-30.86%
-100
0.00%
-3626.376812
-3526.38%
#4
$15
-18.52%
-100
0.00%
-3006.086957
-2906.09%
#5
$17
-6.17%
-100
0.00%
-2385.797101
-2285.80%
#6
$19
6.17%
-100
0.00%
-1765.507246
-1665.51%
#7
$21
18.52%
-100
0.00%
-1145.217391
-1045.22%
#8
$24
30.86%
-100
0.00%
-524.9275362
-424.93%
#9
$26
43.21%
-100
0.00%
95.36231884
195.36%
#10
$28
55.56%
-100
0.00%
715.6521739
815.65%
$30
$25
$20
$15
$5
$10
-5000
6000
Expected Value
4000
2000
No
Yes
-2000
No
Yes
#1
Value
$8
Value
Change (%)
-2908.780488
-224.83%
#2
$10
-43.21%
-100
-104.29%
-1744.552846
-174.87%
#3
$12
-30.86%
-100
-104.29%
-580.3252033
-124.90%
#4
$15
-18.52%
-100
-104.29%
583.902439
-74.94%
#5
$17
-6.17%
-100
-104.29%
1748.130081
-24.98%
#6
$19
6.17%
-100
-104.29%
2912.357724
24.98%
#7
$21
18.52%
-100
-104.29%
4076.585366
74.94%
#8
$24
30.86%
-100
-104.29%
5240.813008
124.90%
#9
$26
43.21%
-100
-104.29%
6405.04065
174.87%
#10
$28
55.56%
-100
-104.29%
7569.268293
224.83%
$30
$25
$20
$15
$5
$10
-4000