Chapter 4 Notes

Probability and Counting Rules

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

Probability Experiment:

Outcome:

Sample Space:

Event:

What is the sample space for flipping a coin?

What is the sample space for rolling 2 dice?

What is the sample space for drawing a card out of a standard deck of cards?

What is the sample space for the gender of the children in a family with 2 children?

Tree Diagram:

Example 1: Use a tree diagram to find the sample space for flipping a coin 3 times.

Formula for Classical Probability:

1

The probability of any event E is

OR P(E) = n(E)
n(S)

____________________________

where n(E) =
and n(S) =

Probability Rules:
1. _____ P(E) _____ and may be expressed as decimals, fractions, or percents.
2.
3.
4.
Rounding Rule: Probabilities should be reduced fractions or rounded to 3 decimal
places. If expressed as a percent, be sure to adjust decimal place and include % sign.
Example 2: Use the tree diagram you created on page 1 to determine the probability
that exactly 2 of your flips out of 3 is heads.

Example 3: Find the probability of the given events, using a standard deck of 52
cards (no jokers).
a. Drawing the 8 of hearts
b. Drawing an 8
c. A diamond
d. A black card

Complement of an Event:

Rule for Complementary Events:

2

P(E) = 1 P(E) or

P(E) = 1 P(E) or P(E) + P(E) = 1

Example 4: Find the complement of the following events:

a. Even days of the month
b. Rolling a 2 or 3 on a die
c. Owning a dog

Example 5: In a survey, 54% of Waukee students hold a job outside of school. If a

random Waukee student is chosen, what is the probability he/she does NOT hold a
job outside of school.

Empirical (Experimental) Probability:

Example 6: In a survey asking 50 people what their favorite food is, 16 like
spaghetti, 20 like pizza, 10 like salmon, and 4 like SPAM.
What is the probability that a randomly selected person:
a. Likes pizza or SPAM
b. Likes neither salmon nor SPAM
c. Does not like spaghetti

Law of Large Numbers:

4-2 Addition Rules for Probability
Mutually Exclusive or Disjoint Events:
Example 1: Are the following events mutually exclusive?
3

a.
b.
c.
d.

Driving to school and walking to school

Randomly selecting a female student and Randomly selecting a sophomore
Drawing a single card from a deck and getting a King and a club
Drawing a single card from a deck and getting a King and an Ace.

Probability Addition Rule 1:

When 2 events are MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Example 2: A city has 9 coffee shops: 3 Starbucks, 2 Caribou Coffees, and 4 Crazy Mocho
Coffees. If a person randomly chooses a coffee shop, what is the probability it is a Starbucks
or a Caribou Coffee?

Probability Addition Rule 2: When 2 events are NOT mutually exclusive

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B)
Why does this rule also work when 2 events are mutually exclusive?

Example 3: What is the probability of rolling and even number or a 4 on a single die?

Example 4: What is the probability of drawing a red card or a Queen out of a deck of cards?

Example 5: On New Years Eve, the probability of a person driving while intoxicated is 0.32,
the probability of a person having a driving accident is 0.09, and the probability of a person
having a driving accident while intoxicated is 0.06. What is the probability of a person driving
while intoxicated or having a driving accident.
For 3 events that are not mutually exclusive:
P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(A and B) P(A and C) P(B and C) P(A and B and C)

Group Work: Pg. 206 Applying the Concepts 4-2

4

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

8.
9.

4-3 Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability

Independent Events:

Are mutually exclusive events independent or dependent events? Why?

Multiplication Rule 1: When 2 events are INDEPENDENT

P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)

Example 1: A coin is flipped and a die is rolled and a card is drawn (Exciting times!)
What is the probability of
a. Flipping heads and rolling a 5
b. Flipping heads and rolling an even number
c. Rolling a 6 and drawing a face card (Jack, Queen, King)
d. Flipping tails and drawing a red card
e. Rolling a 3 or 5 and drawing an ace or a 9
f. Flipping heads and drawing a numbered card and rolling an odd number

Example 2: Approximately 10% of the population is left handed. If 3 people are selected at
random, find the probability that all 3 are left handed.
5

Dependent Events:

Example 1: Your drawer contains 4 blue socks, 6 striped socks, and 3 white socks. If you
pull out one sock at a time (without looking) what is the probability you draw 2 striped socks?

Conditional Probability:

Multiplication Rule 2: When two events are DEPENDENT, the probability of BOTH
occurring is P(A and B) = P(A) P(B | A)
OR
P(B | A) = P(A and B)
P(A)
Note:::::>>>> P(B | A) means the probability of B given A

Note::::::>>>>> Events are independent if P(B | A) = P(B)

Example 2: What is the probability of drawing a matching pair?

Example 3: A box contains 4 red and 2 blue chips. A chip is drawn at random and then
replaced. A second chip is then drawn at random.
a) Show all the possible outcomes using a probability tree diagram.
b) Calculate the probability of getting:
(i) at least one blue.
(ii) one red and one blue.
(iii) two of the same color.

Example 4: A coin is biased so that it has a 60% chance of landing on heads. If it is thrown
three times, find the probability of getting
a) three heads
b) 2 heads and a tail
c) at least one head

Example 5: The probability that WHS student, Tim, parks in a no parking zone AND gets a
ticket is 8%. The probability that someone parks in Tims spot and he cant find a legal
parking space is 15%. On Friday, Tim finds someone in his spot and has to park, illegally, at
the park. What is the probability that he will get a parking ticket?

4-4 Counting Rules

Fundamental Counting Rule:

Example 1: Getting dressed in the morning, you have 10 shirts to choose from, 6 pairs of
jeans, 12 pairs of shorts and 8 pairs of shoes. Assuming you have no regard for matching,
how many different outfits can you put together?

Permutation:

Example 2: You have forgotten your locker combination which has 3 numbers. You know
there are no repeat numbers and that the numbers are between 1 and 30. How many
different combinations will you need to try?

Permutation rule 1: The arrangement of n objects in a specific order using r objects at

a time is called a permutation of n objects taking r objects at a time. It is
n!
written as

r1 !r2 !...rp !

Example 3: The student council chooses 3 students names out of a hat. The first chosen
will be President, the second chosen will be Vice President and the last chosen will be
Treasurer. If there are 20 council members, how many ways can the 3 offices be chosen.

Example 4: Eight horses Alabaster, Beauty, Candy, Doughty, Excellente, Friday, Great
One, and High n Mighty run
the race. How many different ways can
the first 3 places be awarded?
n!
n

Pr =

(n - r)!

Permutation Rule 2
The number of permutations of n objects when r1 objects are identical, r2 objects are
identical,, rp objects are identical, etc., is
Where r1 + r2 + r3 + + rp = n

Example 5: How many permutations of the letters can be made from the words
WAUKEE WARRIORS?

Combination:
Combination Rule: The number of combinations of r objects selected from n objects
is denoted by nCr, and is given by the formula:

Example 6: The 20 seat student council is selecting a 3 person committee to work on the
homecoming parade. How many different committees can be formed from the group? How
is this situation different from Example 3 above? How do the results compare?

Cr =

n!
(n - r)!r!