Chapter 10 Multinomial Experiments

ELEMENTARY
Chapter 10
MARIO F. TRIOLA
STATISTICS
Multinomial Experiments and

Contingency Tables
EIGHTH
Chapter 10. Section 10.1 and 10.2 Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman
EDITION1
Chapter 10
Multinomial Experiments and

Contingency Tables
10-1 Overview
10-2 Multinomial Experiments:
Goodness-of-fit
10-3 Contingency Tables:
Independence and Homogeneity
10-1
Overview
Focus on analysis of categorical (qualitative or

attribute) data that can be separated into
different categories (often called cells)
Use the X2 (chi-square) test statistic (Table A-4)

One-way frequency table (single row or column)
Two-way frequency table or contingency table
(two or more rows and columns)
ELEMENTARY
Section 10-2
STATISTICS
Goodness of Fit
EIGHTH
EDITIO
MARIO F. TRIOLA
10-2 Multinomial Experiments:
Goodness-of-Fit
Assumptions
when testing hypothesis that the population
proportion for each of the categories is as claimed:
1. The data have been randomly selected.

2. The sample data consist of frequency counts
for each of the different categories.
3. The expected frequency is at least 5. (There is
no requirement that the observed frequency
for each category must be at least 5.)
Definition
Multinomial Experiment
An experiment that meets the following conditions:
1. The number of trials is fixed.
2. The trials are independent.

3. All outcomes of each trial must be
classified
into exactly one of several different
categories.
4. The probabilities for the different
categories
remain constant for each trial.
Definition
Goodness-of-fit test
used to test the hypothesis that an
observed frequency distribution fits
(or conforms to) some claimed
distribution
Goodness-of-Fit Test
Notation
0
represents the observed frequency of an outcome
represents the expected frequency of an outcome
represents the number of different categories or

outcomes
represents the total number of trials
Expected Frequencies
If all expected frequencies are equal:
E=
n
k
the sum of all observed frequencies divided

by the number of categories
Expected Frequencies
If all expected frequencies are not all equal:
E=np
each expected frequency is found by multiplying
the sum of all observed frequencies by the
probability for the category
10
Goodness-of-fit Test in Multinomial Experiments
Test Statistic
X =
2
(O - E)2
E
Critical Values
1. Found in Table A-4 using k-1 degrees of
freedom
where k = number of categories
2. Goodness-of-fit hypothesis tests are always
right-tailed.
11
A close agreement between observed

and expected values will lead to a small
value of X2 and a large P-value.
A large disagreement between observed
and expected values will lead to a large
value of X2 and a small P-value.
A significantly large value of will cause
a rejection of the null hypothesis of no
difference between the observed and the
expected.
2
12
Relationships Among
Components in
Goodness-of-Fit
Hypothesis Test
Figure 10-3
13
Categories with Equal

Frequencies
(Probabilities)
H0: p1 = p2 = p3 = . . . = pk
H1: at least one of the probabilities is
different from the others
14
Categories with Unequal

Frequencies
(Probabilities)
H0: p1 , p2, p3, . . . , pk are as claimed

H1: at least one of the above proportions
is different from the claimed value
15
Example:
Mars, Inc. claims its M&M candies are distributed with

the color percentages of 30% brown, 20% yellow, 20% red, 10% orange,
10% green, and 10% blue. At the 0.05 significance level, test the claim
that the color distribution is as claimed by Mars, Inc.
16
Example:

Claim: p1 = 0.30, p2 = 0.20, p3 = 0.20, p4 = 0.10,

p5 = 0.10, p6 = 0.10
H0 : p1 = 0.30, p2 = 0.20, p3 = 0.20, p4 = 0.10,

p5 = 0.10, p6 = 0.10
H1: At least one of the proportions is
different from the claimed value.
17
Example:

Frequencies of M&Ms
Brown Yellow Red Orange Green Blue
Observed frequency
33
26
21
n = 100
18
Example:

Frequencies of M&Ms
Observed frequency
n = 100
33
26
21
Brown E = np = (100)(0.30) = 30
Yellow E = np = (100)(0.20) = 20
Red E = np = (100)(0.20) = 20
Orange E = np = (100)(0.10) = 10
Green E = np = (100)(0.10) = 10
Blue E = np = (100)(0.10) = 10
19
Frequencies of M&Ms
Observed frequency
33
26
21
Expected frequency
30
20
20
10
10
10
0.3
1.8
0.05
0.4
0.9
2.5
(O -E)2/E
20
Frequencies of M&Ms
Observed frequency
33
26
21
Expected frequency
30
20
20
10
10
10
0.3
1.8
0.05
0.4
0.9
2.5
(O -E)2/E
Test Statistic
X =
2
(O - E)2
=
E
5.95
21
Frequencies of M&Ms
Observed frequency
33
26
21
Expected frequency
30
20
20
10
10
10
0.3
1.8
0.05
0.4
0.9
2.5
(O -E)2/E
Test Statistic
X2 =
(O - E)2
=
E
5.95
Critical Value X =11.071

(with k-1 = 5 and = 0.05)
22
Fail to Reject
Reject
= 0.05
0
X2 = 11.071
Sample data: X2 = 5.95
Test Statistic does not fall within critical region;

Fail to reject H0: percentages are as claimed
There is not sufficient evidence to warrant rejection of the
claim that the colors are distributed with the given
percentages.
23
Comparison of Claimed and Observed Proportions
0.30
0.20
Proportions
Observed proportions
Claimed proportions
0.10
0
Orange
Yellow
Brown
Red
Blue
Green
24
ELEMENTARY
Section 10-3
STATISTICS
Contingency Tables: Independence

and Homogeneity
EIGHTH
EDITIO
MARIO F. TRIOLA
25
Definition
Contingency Table (or two-way frequency table)
a table in which frequencies
correspond to two variables.
(One variable is used to categorize rows,
and a second variable is used to
categorize columns.)
26
Definition
Contingency Table (or two-way frequency table)
a table in which frequencies
correspond to two variables.
(One variable is used to categorize rows,
and a second variable is used to
categorize columns.)
Contingency tables have at least two
rows and at least two columns.
27
Definition
Test of Independence
tests the null hypothesis that
the row variable and column
variable in a contingency table are
not related.
(The null hypothesis
is the
statement that
the row and column variables are
independent.)
28
Assumptions
1.
The sample data are randomly selected.
2.
The null hypothesis H0 is the statement that

the row and column variables
are
independent; the alternative
hypothesis H1 is the statement that the row
and column variables are dependent.
3.
For every cell in the contingency table, the

expected frequency E is at least 5. (There is
no requirement that every observed
frequency must be at least 5.)
29
Test of Independence
Test Statistic
X =
2
(O - E)2
E
Critical Values
1. Found in Table A-4 using
degrees of freedom = (r - 1)(c - 1)

r is the number of rows and c is the number of columns
2. Tests of Independence are always right-tailed.

30
E=
(row total) (column total)

(grand total)
Total number of all observed frequencies

in the table
31
Tests of Independence
H0: The row variable is independent of the
column variable
H1: The row variable is dependent (related to)

the column variable
This procedure cannot be used to establish a
direct cause-and-effect link between variables in
question.
Dependence means only there is a relationship
between the two variables.
32
Expected Frequency for

Contingency Tables
33

Contingency Tables
E=
grand total
row total
grand total
column total
grand total
34

Contingency Tables
E=
grand total
row total
grand total
column total
grand total
p
(probability of a cell)
35

Contingency Tables
E=
grand total
row total
grand total
column total
grand total
p
36

Contingency Tables
E=
grand total
row total
grand total
column total
grand total
p
E=

(grand total)
37
Is the type of crime independent of whether the

criminal is a stranger?
Stranger
Acquaintance
or Relative
Homicide
12
39
Robbery
Assault
379
727
106
642
38

Stranger
Homicide
12
Assault
Row Total
379
727
1118
Robbery
Acquaintance
or Relative
39
106
642
787
Column Total
51
485
1369
1905
39

Stranger
Homicide
12
Assault
Row Total
379
727
1118
Robbery
Acquaintance
or Relative
39
106
642
787
Column Total
51
485
1369
1905
E=

(grand total)
40

Homicide
12
Stranger
Assault
Row Total
379
727
1118
Robbery
(29.93)
Acquaintance
or Relative
39
106
642
787
Column Total
51
485
1369
1905
E=

(grand total)
E = (1118)(5 = 29.93
1) 1905
41

Stranger
Acquaintance
or Relative
Row Total
727
1118
Robbery
(29.93)
(284.64)
(803.43)
39
(21.07)
106
(200.36)
642
(565.57)
787
485
1369
1905
379
51
Column Total
E=
E
Assault
Homicide
12
= (1118)(5
1) 1905

(grand total)
= 29.93
E = (1118)(485)= 284.64
1905
etc.
42

X =
2
(O - E )2
E
Homicide
Stranger
Acquaintance
12
(29.93)
Robbery
Forgery
379
(284.64)
727
(803.43)
106
(200.36)
642
(565.57
[10.741]
39
(21.07)
(E)
(O - E )2
E
or Relative
(O -E )2
Upper left cell:
=
E
(12 -29.93)2
29.93
= 10.741
43

X =
2
(O - E )2
E
Homicide
Stranger
Acquaintance
or Relative
12
(29.93)
[10.741]
39
(21.07)
[15.258]
(O -E )2
Upper left cell:
=
E
Robbery
Forgery
379
(284.64)
[31.281]
727
(803.43)
[7.271]
106
(200.36)
[44.439]
642
(565.57)
[10.329]
(12 -29.93)2
29.93
(E)
(O - E )2
E
= 10.741
44

X =
2
(O - E )2
E
Homicide
12
(29.93)
Stranger
[10.741]
Acquaintance
or Relative
39
(21.07)
[15.258]
Robbery
Forgery
379
(284.64)
[31.281]
727
(803.43)
[7.271]
106
(200.36)
[44.439]
642
(565.57)
[10.329]
(E)
(O - E )2
E
2
Test Statistic X = 10.741 + 31.281 + ... + 10.329 =
119.319
45
Test Statistic X2 = 119.319
with = 0.05 and (r -1) (c -1) = (2 -1) (3 -1) = 2 degrees of

freedom
Critical Value X2 = 5.991 (from Table A-4)
46

freedom
Fail to Reject
Independence
Reject
Independence
= 0.05
0
X2 = 5.991
Sample data: X2 =119.319
47

freedom
Fail to Reject
Independence
Reject
Independence
= 0.05
0
X2 = 5.991
Reject independence
48

freedom
Fail to Reject
Independence
Reject
Independence
= 0.05
0
X2 = 5.991
Reject independence
Claim: The type of crime and knowledge of criminal are independent

Ho : The type of crime and knowledge of criminal are independent
H1 : The type of crime and knowledge of criminal are dependent
49

freedom
Fail to Reject
Independence
Reject
Independence
= 0.05
0
X2 = 5.991
Reject independence
It appears that the type of crime and

knowledge of the criminal are related.
50
Relationships Among Components in X2 Test

of Independence
Figure 10-8
51
Definition
Test of Homogeneity
test the claim that different populations
have the same proportions of some
characteristics
52
How to distinguish between a

test of homogeneity and a
test for independence:
Were predetermined sample sizes
used for different populations (test of
homogeneity), or was one big sample
drawn so both row and column totals
were determined randomly (test of
independence)?
53

Chapter 10 Multinomial Experiments

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ELEMENTARY

Multinomial Experiments and

Multinomial Experiments and

Focus on analysis of categorical (qualitative or

Use the X2 (chi-square) test statistic (Table A-4)

10-2 Multinomial Experiments:

1. The data have been randomly selected.

2. The trials are independent.

represents the observed frequency of an outcome

represents the expected frequency of an outcome

represents the number of different categories or

represents the total number of trials

the sum of all observed frequencies divided

Goodness-of-fit Test in Multinomial Experiments

A close agreement between observed

Categories with Equal

Categories with Unequal

H0: p1 , p2, p3, . . . , pk are as claimed

Mars, Inc. claims its M&M candies are distributed with

Mars, Inc. claims its M&M candies are distributed with

Claim: p1 = 0.30, p2 = 0.20, p3 = 0.20, p4 = 0.10,

H0 : p1 = 0.30, p2 = 0.20, p3 = 0.20, p4 = 0.10,

Mars, Inc. claims its M&M candies are distributed with

Mars, Inc. claims its M&M candies are distributed with

Critical Value X =11.071

Test Statistic does not fall within critical region;

Comparison of Claimed and Observed Proportions

Contingency Tables: Independence

The sample data are randomly selected.

The null hypothesis H0 is the statement that

For every cell in the contingency table, the

degrees of freedom = (r - 1)(c - 1)

2. Tests of Independence are always right-tailed.

(row total) (column total)

Total number of all observed frequencies

H1: The row variable is dependent (related to)

Expected Frequency for

Expected Frequency for

Expected Frequency for

Expected Frequency for

Expected Frequency for

(row total) (column total)

Is the type of crime independent of whether the

Is the type of crime independent of whether the

Is the type of crime independent of whether the

(row total) (column total)

Is the type of crime independent of whether the

(row total) (column total)

Is the type of crime independent of whether the

(row total) (column total)

Is the type of crime independent of whether the

Is the type of crime independent of whether the

Is the type of crime independent of whether the

Test Statistic X2 = 119.319

with = 0.05 and (r -1) (c -1) = (2 -1) (3 -1) = 2 degrees of

Critical Value X2 = 5.991 (from Table A-4)

Test Statistic X2 = 119.319

with = 0.05 and (r -1) (c -1) = (2 -1) (3 -1) = 2 degrees of

Critical Value X2 = 5.991 (from Table A-4)

Test Statistic X2 = 119.319

with = 0.05 and (r -1) (c -1) = (2 -1) (3 -1) = 2 degrees of

Critical Value X2 = 5.991 (from Table A-4)

Sample data: X2 =119.319

Test Statistic X2 = 119.319