Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 13

Arvind Remedies Ltd.

BUY
Target Price `100

CMP `40

Index Details
Sensex

25,999

Nifty

7,739

BSE 100

7,780

Industry

Pharma

FY17E P/E 4.0x

A series of new product launches and a shift in the product mix


leads us to believe that Arvind Remedies Ltd. (ARL) revenues and
earnings could grow at a CAGR of 30% and 42%, respectively, over
the period FY14-17. At these rates, the company should achieve
revenues of `2,096.9 crore and a PAT of `173.9 crore by FY17E.
Our optimism is based on the following:

Scrip Details

Timely commissioning of its manufacturing facilities augurs


well for volume growth. Accordingly, we expect revenues to
grow at a CAGR of 30% from `963.2 crore in FY14 to `2,096.9
crore by FY17.

270.2

BVPS (`)

40.5

O/s Shares (Cr)

6.8

Av Vol (Lacs)

7.3

52 Week H/L

66/30

Div Yield (%)

1.7

FVPS (`)

The shift in the product mix towards the higher margin,


branded retail segment will help ARL to boost its EBITDA and
PAT. We forecast a sharp jump in the EBIDTA as well as PAT
from the current `181.9 crore and `60.7 crore to `372.0 crore
and `173.9 crore by FY17, respectively. However margins
could be under pressure given the upfront costs associated
with the national launch. We expect margins to contract by
120 bps to 17.7%.

10.0

Shareholding Pattern
Shareholders

Promoters

36.1

DIIs

0.1

FIIs

0.0

Public

63.6

Total

100.0

ARL is an early entrant in the government promoted safe


drugs initiative for launch of phytopharmaceutical drugs.
ARL has acquired patent rights of three drug products and
tied up with a number of research institutes of repute for the
same, and, a number of these drugs are in various stages of
development. This pipeline seems promising and augurs well
for the long run.

ARL vs. Sensex

We initiate coverage on ARL as a BUY with a Price Objective of `100


representing a potential upside of ~150% over a period of 24 months.
At the CMP of `40, the stock is trading at a P/E multiple of 1.6x
FY17E. We assign ARL a P/E multiple of 4.0x which is in line with its
one year average. The P/E of 4.0x implies a target price of `100 on its
FY17 EPS of `25/share. Any announcement of further capacity
expansion and a higher than expected pick-up in growth and
margins are upside triggers to our target price.
Key Financials (` in Cr)
Net
Y/E Mar
EBITDA
Sales
2014
963.2
181.9
2015E
1301.1
257.1
2016E
1,677.9
322.9
2017E
2,096.9
372.0
- 1 of 13 -

PAT

EPS
(`)

EPS Growth
(%)

RONW
(%)

ROCE
(%)

P/E
(x)

EV/EBITDA
(x)

60.7
92.0
140.1
173.9

9.9
13.5
20.6
25.5

5.9
51.6
52.3
24.1

21.4
24.5
27.2
25.2

16.2
17.2
19.5
19.9

4.0
3.0
1.9
1.6

4.6
4.1
3.5
2.9

Thursday 16
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

th

October, 2014

STOCK POINTER

Mkt Cap (` cr)

Company Background
Promoted by Dr. Arvind Shah, Arvind Remedies Ltd (ARL) was incorporated in 1988
and its primarily business involves the manufacture of Branded and Generic
formulation products.
Arvind Remedies Group Structure

Arvind Remedies Ltd

Subsidiaries

Arvind Wellness Ltd.


(100%)
Coronet Labs Pvt.
Ltd. (63.75%)

Plant Locations

Kakkalur, Tamil Nadu


(2 plants)
Irungatukottai, Tamil
Nadu
Coronet Labs,
Uttarakhand

Source: Arvind Remedies, Ventura Research

Arvind Remedies Revenue Segments

Source: Arvind Remedies, Ventura Research

- 2 of 13-

th

Thursday 16

October, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

ARL Aspires to have a Pan India Presence

Source: Arvind Remedies, Ventura Research

ARL International Presence- Growth through Branded Markets

Source: Arvind Remedies, Ventura Research


- 3 of 13-

th

Thursday 16

October, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Key Investment Highlights


Robust revenue growth to propel earnings
Timely completion of Capital Expenditure to ensure volume
growth
ARLs original plan (in FY12) was to undertake an expansion of its capacities to
manufacture antibiotics and beta lactums at a single facility. However, due to a
government ruling which stipulated that an exclusive facility should be used for beta
lactums, ARL had to alter its plans and hence two units were conceptualized:
Unit 2- for Antibiotics
Unit 3- for Beta Lactum manufacture.
These two units are in addition to the two already existing facilities (Unit 1 at
Kakkarpur, Tamil Nadu, and Unit 4 Coronet Labs) located in Uttarakhand in which
ARL has a 63.8% stake.
Unit 2 & Unit 3 commenced production in FY13 and Q4FY14, respectively. Overall
we expect both these plants to reach optimum utilizations by FY16. Accordingly,
based on the above and planned rollout of new products we expect revenues to
grow at a CAGR of 30% from `963.2 crore in FY14 to `2,096.9 crore by FY17.
Manufacturing Unit Utilization

Segment wise Revenue

es

120

2500

(%)

Rs Crore

2096
100

1678

2000

1301

80

963

1500

706

60
1000

40
500

20
0

FY13

FY14
Unit 1

Source: Ventura Research

- 4 of 13-

FY15E
Unit 2

Unit 3

FY16E
Unit 4

FY17E

FY13

FY14

Branded Retail
Generic Formulations

FY15E

FY16E

Branded Institutional
CRAMS

FY17E

Branded Exports

Source: Ventura Research

th

Thursday 16

October, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Branded retail to spear head growth


This revenue growth is expected to majorly be contributed by ARLs forceful thrust
on the branded retail (CAGR growth of 38% to `733.9 crore by FY17) and branded
institutional business (CAGR growth of 30% to `524.2 crore by FY17) segments. As
a result of the faster growth of the above two segments, the contribution of the low
margin generic segment (CAGR growth of 16% to `524.2 crore FY17) is expected to
reduce from 35% in FY14 to 25% FY17.

ARL has aspirations of a pan India presence


Currently, ARL is present in South and East India with 550 medical representatives
(MRs). Given the expansion plan, we expect ARL to gradually expand its pan India
presence by its foray into the North and West India. Over a period of time we expect
MR team to expand to 1000 by FY17.
Medical Representative and Efficiency
1200 Nos.

2.5

1000

2.0

800

1.5

600

1.0

400
200

0.5

0.0

Medical Representatives
Medical Representatives Efficiency (RHS)
Source: Arvind Remedies, Ventura Research

Product mix enhancement and core focus on retail market to


boost profitability
As the contribution from the higher margin branded retail segment picks up, we
forecast a sharp jump in the EBIDTA as well as PAT from the current `181.9 crore
and `60.7 crore to `372 crore and `173.9 crore by FY17, respectively. As the
expansion rollout costs are front ended, we expect overall margins to contract by
120 bps to 17.7% from the current 18.9%.

- 5 of 13-

th

Thursday 16

October, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Segment Contribution
Q1FY15

FY17E
7%

13%
34%

38%

25%
28%

2%
24%

28%

2%

Branded Retail

Branded Institutional

Branded Exports

Generic

CRAMS

Source: Arvind Remedies, Ventura Research

Segment wise EBITDA


400

Net Profit to Grow at a CAGR of 42%

Rs.Crore

200

350

180

300

160

Rs. Crore

140

250

120

200

100

150

80

100

60
40

50

20

0
FY13
Branded Retail
Generic

FY14

FY15E

Branded Institutional
CRAMS

Source: Ventura Research

FY16E

FY17E

0
FY13

FY14

FY15E

FY16E

FY17E

Branded Exports

Source: Ventura Research

Innovation of Phytopharmaceutical drug product : Long term


visibility
Government emphasizing safe drugs
The Government of India, in order to propagate innovation of safe drugs products,
has launched an initiative to promote the development and manufacture of drug
products from phytopharmaceutical sources. Seizing this new exciting opportunity,
ARL has ventured into research and development of phytopharmaceutical drug
products. ARL has acquired patent rights of three granted US patents (product
patent of phytopharmaceutical drug products) for manufacturing and marketing of
phytopharmaceutical drug products. ARL has entered into agreement with Sri
Ramachandra Medical College (SRMU, Chennai), Department of Science &
- 6 of 13-

th

Thursday 16

October, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Technology (DST), Ministry of Science & Technology, Government of India, Banaras


Hindu University, SRMU, Adesh University and Genome foundation for collaborative
research in New Drug discovery of Phytopharmaceutical drugs products.
As per the agreement, the Government of India would bear 70% and ARL the
balance 30% of the drug development cost. The profit sharing would be such that
the Government of India would receive 10% of net profit, once the drug product is
commercialized, as royalty, while ARL would get the balance 90%.

Phytopharmaceutical Drugs are initiative to promote Safe Drugs


Phytopharmaceutical drugs products contains drug substance obtained from botanical origin .These
are not single drug substance but comprise of standardized extracts or fractions of processed or
unprocessed medicinal plants. Like the chemical drug products, these drug products are also
evaluated for efficacy and safety as per Schedule Y of Drugs and Cosmetic Act. These drugs are,
however, required to be evaluated for their safety and efficacy like other new drugs belonging to the
modern system of medicines.
On 24th October 2013, The Government of India has published a draft amendment to the Drugs and
Cosmetics Act, and Rules (D&C Act and Rules). This creates regulatory provisions defining
phytopharmaceutical (botanical-based drugs) and a schedule providing requirements of scientific data
on quality, safety, and efficacy to evaluate and marketing authorization for a plant-based lead as a drug
on similar lines to synthetic, chemical moieties.

Difference between Phytopharmaceutical Drugs and Chemical Drugs


Phytopharmaceutical

Chemical drugs
The terms are often used to describe the large A pharmaceutical drug is any chemical
substance formulated as single active
number of primary and secondary metabolic
compounds found in plants, which are used to ingredient used in the medical diagnosis,
cure, treatment, or prevention of disease
prepare drugs
Common names of Phytochemicals are
Antioxidants, Flavonoids, Phytoneutrients,
Flavones, isoflavones etc.

Drugs often have several names. Like


Chemical names, Generic Names and trade
names.

Some drugs can cause addiction and


Phytochemicals, consumed in large quantities,
habituation and all drugs have side effects.
in a healthy diet, are likely to be helpful and are
Many drugs are illegal for recreational
unlikely to cause any major problems
purposes and international treaties
Source: Ventura Research

ARL is in the process of developing a portfolio of products made from biological


sources which would significantly reduce the risk of side-effects caused by regular
chemical sourced drugs. Around 5 of these products are in advanced clinical trial
phases.
- 7 of 13-

th

Thursday 16

October, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Phytopharmaceutical Drugs Pipeline


Therapeutic Segments

Stage

Arthiritis

Associations

Phase 2 completed

DST, SRMU, Dept of Rheumatology, Govt of India


Banaras Hindu University (BHU), Adesh Unitersity,
SRMU, Genome Foundation

Phase 2 completed

BHU, Adesh University, SRMU, Genome Foundation

Phase 1 completed

Depression
Neuro-Degeneration Disorder
Coronary Heart Disease

Phase 2 completed

Type II Diabetic

Phase 2 completed

Obesity

Pre-clinical completed

Viral Diseases

Pre-clinical completed

Banaras Hindu University (BHU), Adesh Unitersity,


SRMU, Genome Foundation
Banaras Hindu University (BHU), Adesh Unitersity,
SRMU, Genome Foundation
DST, SRMU, Dept of Cardiology, Govt of India
DST, IIIM (Jammu), Dept of Microbiology (Presidency
College), TANUVAS, Govt of India

Source: Arvind Remedies, Ventura Research

Key Risks
High Leverage and Finance Cost
ARL has a debt of ` 591.2 crore (FY14) with an average cost of borrowing of 13%.
Though, ARL has been thinning down its long term debt by `40-45 crore every year,
we believe it will have to raise short term debt in order to fulfill its working capital
requirements, considering the expansion plan and new product launches. The
Companys debt repayment depends highly upon new product launches and its foray
into new markets.
D/E, Debt/EBITDA and Interest Coverage Ratio
6.0

(x)

5.0
4.0

3.0
2.0

1.0
0.0
FY11

FY12

Debt/EBITDA

FY13

FY14

FY15E

Interest Coverage Ratio

FY16E

FY17E

Debt Equity Ratio

Source: Arvind Remedies, Ventura Research

- 8 of 13-

th

Thursday 16

October, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

We draw comfort from the fact that the core business which is expected to record `
372 crore in EBITDA by FY17 will help in enhancing the Net Worth by 143% and
lower the Debt to EBITDA from 3.3x in FY14 to 1.9x by FY17. Additionally, this will
augment the interest coverage ratio from 2.1x in FY14 to a comfortable 3.7x by
FY17. However, if in case the new product launches are not successful in the
market then it might be a downside risk to the companys revenues and profitability.

New product launch

Success of drug product development and also launches of new drug products carry
inherent risk. If the new drug product fails in drug product development stage or not
accepted by the market, then it might adversely impact the revenues and profitability
of ARL.

Financial Performance
Backed by two new product launches (Metnil for Diabetic Therapeutic Segment and
Arvistat 10 for Cardiovascular Therapeutic Segment) in the Branded Retail segment,
ARLs standalone revenues witnessed a robust growth of 41% YoY to ` 258.8 crore
in Q1FY15. In the same period, its EBITDA margins registered a growth of 267 bps
YoY and stood at 24.6% as against 21.9%. The PAT also witnessed a robust growth
of 58% YoY to ` 26.1 crore.
Quarterly Financial Performance (` in crore)
Particulars

Net Sales
Growth%
Total expenditure
EBITDA
Margin%
Depreciation
EBIT (Ex OI)
Other Income
EBIT
Margin%
Interest
Exceptional Items
PBT
Margin%
Provision for Tax
PAT
Margin%

Q1FY14

Q1FY15

FY14

FY13

184.0

258.8
41%
195.2
63.6
25%
6.5
57.1
0.0
57.1
22%
24.4
0.0
32.7
13%
6.6
26.1
10%

963.2
36%
781.3
181.9
19%
14.0
167.9
0.0
167.9
17%
78.5
0.0
89.4
9%
28.7
60.7
6%

706.1

143.7
40.3
22%
3.3
37.0
0.0
37.0
20%
15.6
0.0
21.4
12%
4.9
16.5
9%

564.8
141.3
20%
13.0
128.3
0.0
128.3
18%
60.0
0.0
68.3
10%
23.0
45.3
6%

Source: Arvind Remedies, Ventura Research

- 9 of 13-

th

Thursday 16

October, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Financial Outlook
We expect ARL revenues to grow at a 3 year CAGR of 30% to ` 2096.9 crore in
FY17 driven by new product launches, a shift towards the branded formulation
segment and foray into new geographies. We expect EBITDA to grow at a 3 year
CAGR of 27% to ` 372 crore in FY17 backed by an increase in utilization of existing
plants and expansion in India. However, we expect ARLs EBITDA margin to
contract by 180bps to 17% over FY14-FY17, as the expansion rollout costs are front
ended. We expect ARLs PAT to grow at a 3 year CAGR of 42% to ` 173.9 crore in
FY17 led by healthy revenue growth. The PAT margin is expected to expand to 8%
in FY17 from 6.3% in FY14.
Revenue, EBITDA Margin and PAT Margin
2500

Rs.Crore

25%

2000

20%

1500

15%

1000

10%

500

5%

0%
FY11

FY12

Revenue

FY13

FY14

FY15E

EBITDA Margin (RHS)

FY16E

FY17E

PAT Margin (RHS)

Source: Arvind Remedies, Ventura Research

Valuation
We initiate coverage on ARL as a BUY with a Price Objective of ` 100 representing
a potential upside of ~150% over a period of 24 months. At the CMP of ` 40, the
stock is trading at a P/E multiple of 1.6x FY17E. We assign ARL a P/E multiple of
4.0x which is in line with its one year average. The P/E of 4.0x implies a target price
of ` 100 on FY17 EPS of ` 25/share. Also, in our opinion, there exists an upside risk
to our margin assumptions, which if it fructifies, could lead to a re-rating of the stock
sighting improved profitability.

- 10 of 13-

th

Thursday 16

October, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

P/E
120
100
80

60
40

20
0
Mar-08

Mar-10

CMP

3.5X

Mar-12

4.75X

6X

Mar-14
7.25X

8.5X

Source: Arvind Remedies,, Ventura Research

P/BV
70
60

50
40

30
20

10
0
Mar-08

Mar-10

CMP

0.6X

Mar-12

0.75X

0.9X

Mar-14
1.05X

1.2X

Source: Arvind Remedies, Ventura Research

EV/EBITDA
1400
1200

1000
800

600
400

200
0
Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-14
EV

1X

2X

3X

4X

5X

Source: Arvind Remedies, Ventura Research


- 11 of 13-

th

Thursday 16

October, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Financials and Projections


Y/E Mar, Fig in ` Cr

FY 2014 FY 2015E FY 2016E FY 2017E

Profit & Loss Statement


Net Sales

Y/E Mar, Fig in Rs. Cr

963.2

1301.1

1677.9

2096.9

36.3

35.1

29.0

25.0

781.3

1044.0

1355.0

1724.9

% Chg.

38.3

33.6

29.8

27.3

EBITDA

181.9

257.1

322.9

372.0

18.9

19.8

19.2

17.7

Other Income

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptional items

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

181.9

257.1

322.9

372.0

Depreciation

14.0

16.3

18.1

22.6

Dividend Yield (%)

Interest

78.5

105.5

98.8

93.6

Valuation Ratio (x)

PBT

89.4

135.3

206.1

255.8

Tax Provisions

28.7

43.3

65.9

81.8

Reported PAT

60.7

92.0

140.1

173.9

% Chg.
Total Expenditure

EBITDA Margin %

PBDIT

EPS

10.0

13.5

20.6

25.5

Cash EPS

12.2

15.9

23.2

28.9

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

46.4

55.1

75.6

101.2

Debt / Equity (x)

2.1

2.2

1.5

1.0

Current Ratio (x)

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.3

ROE (%)

21.4

24.5

27.2

25.2

ROCE (%)

16.2

17.2

19.5

19.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

P/E (x)

4.0

3.0

1.9

1.6

P/BV (x)

0.9

0.7

0.5

0.4

EV/Sales (x)

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.5

4.6

4.1

3.5

2.9

DPS
Book Value
Capital, Liquidity, Returns Ratio

Minority Interest

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

EV/EBIDTA (x)

Share of profit from associates

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Efficiency Ratio (x)

60.7

92.0

140.1

173.9

6.3

7.1

8.4

8.3

PAT
PAT Margin (%)

Balance Sheet
Share Capital
Reserves & Surplus
Minority Interest
Total Provisions
Total Borrowings
Other Long-Term Liabilities
Total Liabilities
Gross Block
Less: Acc. Depreciation
Net Block
Capital Work in Progress

Inventory (days)

75.8

86.0

81.0

76.0

Debtors (days)

115.5

125.0

120.0

116.0

Creditors (days)

39.5

39.0

39.0

39.0

Profit Before Tax

89.4

135.3

206.1

255.8

Depreciation & Amortisation

14.0

16.3

18.1

22.6

-139.8

-125.8

118.2

-76.3

Cash Flow statement


68.1

68.1

68.1

68.1

214.9

306.9

447.0

620.9

4.9

0.0

0.0

0.0

Working Capital Changes

22.7

26.0

33.5

36.9

Direct Taxes Paid and Others

-28.7

-43.3

-65.9

-81.8

591.2

811.6

760.0

720.0

Operating Cash Flow

-65.1

-17.4

276.4

120.3

-142.2

-49.7

-70.0

-10.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

-14.5

-35.0

43.0

222.0

285.1

350.0

424.7

Capital Expenditure

1123.8

1497.7

1658.7

1870.6

Dividend Received

399.6

465.8

515.8

585.8

Others

116.9
-25.3

-64.2

-105.0

33.0

87.9

220.4

-51.6

-40.0

44.2

60.3

78.3

101.0

Cash Flow from Investing

355.4

405.6

437.5

484.8

Inc/(Dec) in Loan Fund

66.6

50.0

70.0

10.0

Others

Goodwill on Consolidation

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

Interest Paid

Non-Current Investments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Cash Flow from Financing

690.1

1016.9

1090.9

1358.5

Net Current Assets


Other Non-Current Assets
Total Assets

FY 2014 FY 2015E FY 2016E FY 2017E

Per Share Data (Rs)

Net Change in Cash

61.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

-78.0

-105.5

-98.8

-93.6

71.2

114.9

-150.4

-133.6

-19.2

33.2

21.0

19.7

10.5

25.0

60.0

17.0

Opening Cash Balance

24.3

5.1

38.4

59.4

1123.9

1498.7

1659.7

1871.6

Closing Cash Balance

5.1

38.4

59.4

79.1

Ventura Securities Limited


Corporate Office: C-112/116, Bldg No. 1, Kailash Industrial Complex, Park Site, Vikhroli (W), Mumbai 400079
This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable,
but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the securities
mentioned in their articles. Neither Ventura Securities Limited nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of the above
information/articles. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. This report is for private circulation.

- 12 of 13-

th

Thursday 16

October, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Appendix
New Product Pipeline Within Next 3 Years

Sr. No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Name of the product


Levocetirizine , Monteluksat and Ambroxol syrup
Ferrous ascorbate and Folic acid SR tablet
Ferrous ascorbate and Folic acid SR suspension
Ambroxol SR suspension
Rosuvastatin Calcium eq. to Rosuvastatin 20mg/20mg + Fenofibrate
BP 67.5mg/145mg Tablets
Azilsartan tablets
Metformin HCl IP 500mg + Alpha Lipoic Acid USP 200mg Tablet
Diclofenac Diethylamine BP 2.32 % w/v Eq to Diclofenac Sodium
2.00 % w/v + Methyl Salicylate IP 10.00% w/v + Menthol 5.00 % w/v
Thiocolchicoside IP 8/16mg + Lornoxicam 8/16mg
BetahistineDihydrochloride SR Tablets

13

Metformin 500mg (sr)/UDCA 150 mg


Metformin 500 mg (SR) /ALA 200 mg
Each Hard Gelatin capsule contains UDCA 150 mg and
Mecobalamine 500 mcg/ 1000 mcg/ 1500 mcg

14

Pregabalin (SR) and Methylcobalamin tablets

Source: Arvind Remedies, Ventura Research

- 13 of 13-

th

Thursday 16

October, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Vous aimerez peut-être aussi