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Quick Analysis
Key Financial Predictors
4 Periods
Account
Descriptions
Current Assets
Current Liabilities
EBIT
Cash Flow
Sales
Working Capital
Accounts Receivable-Beginning
Accounts Receivable-Ending
Cash
Cash Flow
Current Assets
Current Liabilities
EBIT
Equity
Fixed Assets
Interest
Inventory-Beginning
Inventory-Ending
Long Term Debt
Market Value of Equity
Marketable Securities
Net Profit before Interest and Taxes
Retained Earnings
Sales
Tangible Total Assets
Total Assets
Total Liabilities
Working Capital
Period
1
360,500
350,000
451,000
289,469
1,212,200
936,000
1,286,240
2,450,000
2,900,000
16,250
412,000
400,000
601,200
2,450,000
10,000
1,256,240
1,400,000
2,560,000
3,300,000
4,167,200
1,717,200
276,200
Period
2
350,000
460,500
464,530
738,325
1,550,530
964,080
1,075,763
2,320,500
2,487,000
16,738
400,000
612,000
624,200
2,320,500
10,300
1,044,863
1,542,000
2,500,000
2,899,000
4,094,180
1,773,680
586,450
Period
3
460,500
871,315
478,466
1,633,100
2,187,750
993,002
841,485
3,638,305
3,221,800
17,240
612,000
824,360
645,630
3,638,305
10,609
809,658
1,685,260
2,351,800
3,646,160
5,467,899
1,829,594
1,194,748
Financial Period 1
Z-Score - 3 Models
Current Assets
Current Liabilities
EBIT
Market Value of Equity
Retained Earnings
Sales
Total Assets
Total Liabilities
Working Capital
Springate
1,212,200
936,000
1,286,240
2,450,000
1,400,000
2,560,000
4,167,200
1,717,200
276,200
Current Assets
Current Liabilities
EBIT
Net Profit before Interest and Taxes
Sales
Total Assets
Working Capital
Logit Analysis
1,212,200
936,000
1,286,240
1,256,240
2,560,000
4,167,200
276,200
Accounts Receivable-Beginning
Accounts Receivable-Ending
Cash
Current Liabilities
Fixed Assets
Income from Continuing Operations
Inventory-Beginning
Inventory-Ending
Long Term Debt
Marketable Securities
Sales
Total Assets
Financial Period 2
Z-Score - 3 Models
Current Assets
Current Liabilities
EBIT
Market Value of Equity
Retained Earnings
Sales
Total Assets
Total Liabilities
Working Capital
Springate
1,550,530
964,080
1,075,763
2,320,500
1,542,000
2,500,000
4,094,180
1,773,680
586,450
Current Assets
Current Liabilities
EBIT
Net Profit before Interest and Taxes
Sales
Total Assets
Working Capital
Logit Analysis
1,550,530
964,080
1,075,763
1,044,863
2,500,000
4,094,180
586,450
Accounts Receivable-Beginning
Accounts Receivable-Ending
Cash
Current Liabilities
Fixed Assets
Income from Continuing Operations
Inventory-Beginning
Inventory-Ending
Long Term Debt
Marketable Securities
Sales
Total Assets
Financial Period 3
Z-Score - 3 Models
Current Assets
Current Liabilities
EBIT
Market Value of Equity
Retained Earnings
Sales
Total Assets
Total Liabilities
Working Capital
Springate
2,187,750
993,002
841,485
3,638,305
1,685,260
2,351,800
5,467,899
1,829,594
1,194,748
Current Assets
Current Liabilities
EBIT
Net Profit before Interest and Taxes
Sales
Total Assets
Working Capital
Logit Analysis
2,187,750
993,002
841,485
809,658
2,351,800
5,467,899
1,194,748
Accounts Receivable-Beginning
Accounts Receivable-Ending
Cash
Current Liabilities
Fixed Assets
Income from Continuing Operations
Inventory-Beginning
Inventory-Ending
Long Term Debt
Marketable Securities
Sales
Total Assets
Financial Period 4
Z-Score - 3 Models
Current Assets
Current Liabilities
EBIT
Market Value of Equity
Retained Earnings
Sales
Total Assets
Total Liabilities
Working Capital
Springate
2,826,692
1,007,719
760,061
4,299,528
1,729,818
2,305,454
6,172,246
1,872,718
1,818,973
Current Assets
Current Liabilities
EBIT
Net Profit before Interest and Taxes
Sales
Total Assets
Working Capital
Logit Analysis
2,826,692
1,007,719
760,061
717,279
2,305,454
6,172,246
1,818,973
Accounts Receivable-Beginning
Accounts Receivable-Ending
Cash
Current Liabilities
Fixed Assets
Income from Continuing Operations
Inventory-Beginning
Inventory-Ending
Long Term Debt
Marketable Securities
Sales
Total Assets
Predictions
Z Score: If Publicly Held
1.2 x (working capital / total assets)
1.4 x (retained earn / total assets)
3.3 x (EBIT / total assets)
.6 x (market value equity / total liabilities)
.999 x (sales / total assets)
Z-Score
2
0.0795
0.4703
1.0186
0.8560
0.6137
3.04
Z Score: Non-Manufacturing
6.56 x (working capital / total assets)
3.26 x (retained earn / total assets)
6.72 x (EBIT / total assets)
1.05 x (market value equity / total liabilities)
2
0.0475
0.2846
0.9590
0.5992
0.6131
2.50
Z-Score
Z Score
Springate Analysis
Working Capital
Net Profit before interest and Taxes
Total Assets
Net Profit before Taxes
Current Liabilities
Sales
3
0.1719
0.5273
0.8671
0.7850
0.6100
2.96
0.2622
0.4315
0.5079
1.1932
0.4297
2.82
3
0.1027
0.3190
0.8164
0.5495
0.6094
2.40
0.1567
0.2611
0.4782
0.8352
0.4293
2.16
0.4348
1.0952
2.0742
1.4981
5.10
0.9397
1.2278
1.7657
1.3737
5.31
1.4334
1.0048
1.0342
2.0880
5.56
1
276,200
1,256,240
4,167,200
1,286,240
936,000
2,560,000
2
586,450
1,044,863
4,094,180
1,075,763
964,080
2,500,000
3
1,194,748
809,658
5,467,899
841,485
993,002
2,351,800
0.06628
0.30866
1.37419
0.61432
2.17
0.14324
0.26275
1.11584
0.61062
1.93
0.21850
0.15390
0.84741
0.43011
1.43
Logit Analysis
Cash
Marketable Securities
Accounts Receivable-Beginning
Accounts Receivable-Ending
Inventory-Beginning
Inventory-Ending
Fixed Assets
Total Assets
Current Liabilities
Long Term Debt
Sales
Income from Continuing Operations
Constant
Average Inventories/Sales
Average Receivables/Average Inventories
Cash+Marketable Securities/Total Assets
Quick Assets/Current Liabilities
Income from CO/(Total Assets-Current Liab)
Long-Term Debt/(Total Assets-Current Liab)
Sales/(Net Working Capital+Fixed Assets)
Sum of Coefficients * Ratios
Probability of Bankruptcy
Fulmer H-Factor Analysis
Retained Earnings/Total Assets
Sales/Total Assets
EBIT/Equity
Cash Flow/Total Debt
Total Debt/Total Assets
Current Liabilities/Total Assets
Log Tangible Total Assets
Working Capital/Total Debt
Log EBIT/Interest
1
451,000
10,000
360,500
350,000
412,000
400,000
2,900,000
4,167,200
936,000
601,200
2,560,000
1,256,240
2
464,530
10,300
350,000
460,500
400,000
612,000
2,487,000
4,094,180
964,080
624,200
2,500,000
1,044,863
3
478,466
10,609
460,500
871,315
612,000
824,360
3,221,800
5,467,899
993,002
645,630
2,351,800
809,658
0.23883
-0.017
-1.385
-1.193
2.663
0.189
-0.809
0.089
-0.224
55.58%
1
1
0.3360
0.6143
0.5250
0.1686
0.4121
0.2246
6.5185
0.1608
1.8985
0.23883
-0.026
-1.191
-1.250
2.982
0.162
-0.867
0.090
0.138
46.56%
2
2
0.3766
0.6106
0.4636
0.4163
0.4332
0.2355
6.4622
0.3306
1.8080
0.23883
-0.038
-1.673
-0.964
4.211
0.088
-0.628
0.059
1.294
21.52%
3
3
0.3082
0.4301
0.2313
0.8926
0.3346
0.1816
6.5618
0.6530
1.6885
2.08
0.13
0.03
0.53
-0.05
0.55
3.72
0.36
1.62
8.96
-6.08
2.89
1.70
0.09
0.02
1.13
-0.04
0.42
3.77
0.71
1.51
9.32
-6.08
3.24
H-Factor
Sum
Less
H=
1.86
0.13
0.04
0.21
-0.05
0.52
3.75
0.17
1.70
8.33
-6.08
2.26
Quick Analysis
Key Financial Predictors
4 Periods
Period
4
871,315
1,382,454
492,820
3,111,559
2,826,692
1,007,719
760,061
4,299,528
3,285,454
17,757
824,360
937,091
668,308
4,299,528
10,927
717,279
1,729,818
2,305,454
3,722,545
6,172,246
1,872,718
1,818,973
Predictor
ID
Instructions
L
L
L
F
Z, S
All
Z, S, F
F
L
F
L
L
L
Z
L
S, L
Z, F
ALL except Z3
F
All
Z, F
Z, S, F
Financial Period 1
Logit Analysis
Fulmer H-Factor
360,500
350,000
451,000
936,000
2,900,000
1,256,240
412,000
400,000
601,200
10,000
2,560,000
4,167,200
Cash Flow
Current Liabilities
EBIT
Equity
Interest
Retained Earnings
Sales
Tangible Total Assets
Total Assets
Total Liabilities
Working Capital
289,469
936,000
1,286,240
2,450,000
16,250
1,400,000
2,560,000
3,300,000
4,167,200
1,717,200
276,200
Financial Period 2
Logit Analysis
Fulmer H-Factor
350,000
460,500
464,530
964,080
2,487,000
1,044,863
400,000
612,000
624,200
10,300
2,500,000
4,094,180
Cash Flow
Current Liabilities
EBIT
Equity
Interest
Retained Earnings
Sales
Tangible Total Assets
Total Assets
Total Liabilities
Working Capital
460,500
871,315
478,466
993,002
3,221,800
809,658
612,000
824,360
645,630
10,609
2,351,800
5,467,899
Cash Flow
Current Liabilities
EBIT
Equity
Interest
Retained Earnings
Sales
Tangible Total Assets
Total Assets
Total Liabilities
Working Capital
871,315
1,382,454
492,820
1,007,719
3,285,454
717,279
824,360
937,091
668,308
10,927
2,305,454
6,172,246
Cash Flow
Current Liabilities
EBIT
Equity
Interest
Retained Earnings
Sales
Tangible Total Assets
Total Assets
Total Liabilities
Working Capital
738,325
964,080
1,075,763
2,320,500
16,738
1,542,000
2,500,000
2,899,000
4,094,180
1,773,680
586,450
Financial Period 3
Logit Analysis
Fulmer H-Factor
1,633,100
993,002
841,485
3,638,305
17,240
1,685,260
2,351,800
3,646,160
5,467,899
1,829,594
1,194,748
Financial Period 4
Logit Analysis
Fulmer H-Factor
3,111,559
1,007,719
760,061
4,299,528
17,757
1,729,818
2,305,454
3,722,545
6,172,246
1,872,718
1,818,973
Predictions
4
TREND
0.3536
0.3924
0.4064
1.3775
0.3731
2.90
0.2113
0.2374
0.3826
0.9643
0.3728
2.17
1.9332
0.9136
0.8275
2.4107
6.09
4
1,818,973
717,279
6,172,246
760,061
1,007,719
2,305,454
0.29470
0.12314
0.75424
0.37352
1.33
6.31 OK
Overall Trend is OK
TREND
4
492,820
10,927
871,315
1,382,454
824,360
937,091
3,285,454
6,172,246
1,007,719
668,308
2,305,454
717,279
0.23883
-0.044
-2.335
-0.880
5.754
0.067
-0.563
0.050
2.288
9.21%
4
4
0.2803
0.3735
0.1768
1.6615
0.3034
0.1633
6.5708
0.9713
1.6315
1.55
0.08
0.01
2.11
-0.04
0.38
3.78
1.05
1.46
10.38
-6.08
4.31
TREND
5
TREND
4.80 OK
3.18 Overall Trend is OK