Issue 01

Nov 23 - Dec 06, 2014

In this issue
Pakistans Security
Analysis

News Brief &

Analysis

Brasstacks
Policy Paper

Pakistan Security and Political Situation Report &

Threat Analysis
By Syed Zaid Zaman Hamid
Internal Politics:
Advanced Threat Analysis
Defence and Security Advisors

Rawalpindi, Pakistsan
/syedzaidzamanhamid
/ZaidZamanHamid
Websites:
Brasstacks.pk
Zaidhammid.pk
Blogs:
brasstacks-media.blogspot.com
takbeeremusalsal.blogspot.com
Phone:
051- 5598046-7

Nawaz Shareef is in a panic mode indeed. Desperate to gain domestic and

international credibility, he is pushing his team to deliver at least something
to justify their dwindling control to power. PTI calls to block the country is
the most immediate challenge he faces but his woes do not end there. Power
and Gas tariff hike, inflation, law and order crisis, terrorism, political chaos
all adding to the crate the mayhem which is now seriously threatening his
rule. He is nervous but tries to put up a brave face.
Pakistan army chief is now filling in for the failed political government.
Presently on his visit to the US, the COAS of Pak army is receiving a red
carpet reception from the US military leadership, who also respects the fact
that entire US military strategy in the region depends upon support from the
Pak military. Pakistans army chief is now in a commanding position within
the country and in the international diplomatic and military circles. Pakistan
army is now openly dealing with US, Russia and China independently, forcing the political government to sign landmark deals. General Raheel did not

Army chief raises issue of border violations by

India

Pakistan, Russia sign landmark defence cooperation agreement

mince his words when he was in US. Pakistan is also using Chinese and Russian influence in the region to counter
balance US pressures. Following tweet explains it all.
Tahir ul Qadri has been neutralized by Nawaz Shareef under a secret deal which sources confirm involve money and amnesty. Now IK alone stands in front of the government. He cannot afford to drag the protest as the
weather has become harsh. Next few days would be messy indeed, especially for Punjab and Islamabad. More
and more responsibility would come on the COAS and the DG ISI to manage the national security and political
challenges. At one point, the army might decide to step in decisively to remove an incompetent incapacitated
regime to bring in a new patriotic government. But that remains the call of the army alone to decide the red line
of incompetence of the NS government.
Nightmares for Nawaz Shareef to continue for some weeks now. Imran has unveiled his plan C and has threatened final war against the government in his Sunday night rally in Islamabad. It was a formidable show of force
and the tone, language and the demeanor were equally threatening to the government. The battle lines are drawn.
This is serious threat and trouble for Nawaz government.
For the last few days, the government was in total panic already, desperate to stop Imran and his diehard followers from
coming to the Capital. From road blocks to the use of media
and legal forces, all available means were deployed by the
government but they had to suffer a humiliation on Sunday
night as almost 100,000 people did make it to the massive PTI
rally in Islamabad. There was no trouble inside the rally or
in Islamabad but government used all means at their disposal to try to reduce the number of people reaching Islamabad.
Nawaz Shareef is now well and truly in trouble. His dwindling authority at home is being noticed internationally
as well. Regional and global power are taking him less and less seriously, isolating him, abandoning him and dealing with the Pak army more and more. The fact is not hidden from the NS government who are visibly frustrated,
angry and even blurting out their visible frustration.
On the issue of law and order also, the government continues to face crisis after crisis. Army is busy fighting its
war in the tribal areas but the urban insurgents, political violence and civic unrest continues to haunt the government.
Nawaz has now become a liability for the country. Army can either ask him to resign and then form a caretaker
government or decide to ask Imran Khan to back off and then let Nawaz rule for as long as he can. But the second
option would not just destroy the respect, credibility and image of the army leadership within the nation but would
also destroy the country too.

But one thing is definite now. Army cannot stay neutral else it would be responsible for destroying the state by
allowing the local and foreign forces of chaos to operate without hindrance. This is the 5th Generation war, where
states are destroyed not through the invasions but through implosions. Pakistan is imploding. Pak army must act
and intervene decisively.

Eastern Front:
Indians are playing a dangerous game inside Pakistan and on the line of control in Kashmir. All pro-Indian parties have joined hands as well and have vehemently attacked Pak army over its operations in North Waziristan.
All pro-Indian Deobandi clergy have also formed a larger alliance against Pak army. Indians are also pushing
Americans to target Pak-Afghan border regions under the pretext of eliminating those men who are wanted by
the Indians.
In Indian held Kashmir also, Hindu radicals are trying to bring their own man as ruler in the Muslim majority
state. Clashes along the line of control also continue. Indians have also upped their sponsored violence inside
Pakistan from FATA to Baluchistan to Karachi. Pak army is fighting back. But these are all signs that a serious
trouble is brewing between Pakistan and India in the coming days.
Indians are also aggressive, mobilizing all their military and political assets within Pakistan from MQM to BLA
to TTP to political parties allied with India. Line of control in Kashmir is also volatile. Signs are very disturbing.
A limited but fierce war is a real possibility in the coming weeks. Pak army will do well to be on guard. India is

Modis Hindu nationalists eye power in Kashmir. Anti Pakistan deobandi clergy joins Pro-Indian
The facade of elections in Kashmir is part of RSS political plyers to further enemys agenda within
agenda of Hindutva.
Pakistani politics.

now visibly aggressive as well and the tone, body language and hostility of Indian leadership and army is signaling serious trouble on the western borders. In SAARC summit, Indian leader Modi did not even shake hands with
Nawaz but at the end, Nawaz tried to rescue his own crashed ego.

Western Front:
Brilliant new strategy of Pak military which is sure to upset both US and India. India has been trying to build a
case against Pakistan using its clout in the US. Pakistan army is counter balancing it with Russian and Chinese
influence. The great game between major powers has just gotten into a high gear.
******************************

Iqbal e Purisrar

(Iqbal the mysterious)

Based on Syed Zaid Hamids TV series Iqbal e Pur Israr ,

this is a profound historical, spiritual, emotional and mystical work on the life, person, mission, duties, spirituality and
vision of this wonderful soul who was a man of his age, a man
ahead of his age and a man at war with his age !!
Decorated with rare pictures, maps, historical archives and
untold stories and analysis of Baba Iqqbals amazing duties,
our TV series come alive on paper once again.

Available Now!
Binding: Hard Bind
Language: Urdu
Color: Black and White
Pages: 258

For placing your order of hardcopyplease contact

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syedzaidzamanhamid@gmail.com

News & Brief Analysis

Isis suicide bombers used Turkish territory to launch
attack on Kobani, human rights group says
An Isis suicide bomb attack on the Syrian border town of Kobani was
launched from across the border in Turkey, Kurdish officials have said.
Human rights observers from the UK-based Syrian Observatory for
Human Rights corroborated reports that fighters used Turkish territory
for the raid.
The Turkish government confirmed that a bomb-loaded vehicle was
detonated on the Syrian side of the border at Kobani, but denied the
vehicle had crossed the border from Turkey.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-suicide-bombers-usedturkish-territory-to-launch-attack-on-kobani-human-rights-group-says-9893330.html

Growth engine is stalling

A VERY large wheel is grinding to a halt. Large-scale manufacturing has been languishing at growth rates below 2pc
throughout this fiscal year.
Latest figures show the LSM growth rate at 1.86pc, whereas in
the corresponding period last year the figure was almost 4pc.
Recall that last year was hardly a stellar success for LSM
since this is when uncertainty rocked the money markets and
the IMF programme had just begun.
http://www.dawn.com/news/1146852/growth-engine-is-stalling

ANALYSIS

1.8% Growth rate is perhaps the lowest growth rate of Large

Scale Manufacturing in Pakistans history. Inept governments
during the last 20 years have created an energy crisis which is
now turning into a national tragedy.
Truck with 5,000kg explosives seized
QUETTA: Security forces on Monday seized a truck carrying
around 5,000 kilogrammes of explosives as it was attempting
to enter Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan.
http://www.dawn.com/news/1148068/truck-entering-quetta-with5000kg-explosives-seized

ANALYSIS

It is almost impossible to vet any of these two opposite narratives of

events which, according to reports, have claimed more than 40 people
on both sides. Turkish made a choice to not to push back the ISIS when
they first assaulted border town of Kobane inside Syria. Instead, Turkey allowed Iraqi Kurds to fight against IS after crossing into Syria from
Turkey. Turks hesitated to push back ISIS fearing that Kurds would get
too strong in Northern Syria. That policy of Ankara of letting Iraqi Kurds
using Turkish soil is now turning catastrophically wrong both on military
and diplomatic fronts. It is almost impossible to keep a check on IS militants not using cover of Iraqi Kurds and entering into Turkey while on
diplomatic front, it will be very hard for Turkish government to justify her
role in combat against IS.
Domestically, Turkey would also be facing more problems regarding
internal security. IS can launch a similar attack within the Turkey hiding
itself as Iraqi Kurds and if that happens, Turkey will indulge into a complex and prolonged war. To make the matters worse, Kurds are also
accusing Turkey for helping ISIS in bid to eliminate Kurds movement
against Turkey.

ANALYSIS

Almost 18,00 Km long open border with Afghanistan has

turned into one of toughest challenges of Pakistani security
forces. Terrorists, criminals and smugglers of every kind have
their routes through this border to and from Afghanistan. Security forces in Quetta (Capital of Baluchistan province bordering with Afghanistan) seized huge amount of arms and
ammunition and saved the city. This indeed is a great news
considering the fact that the ammunition shown in the video
would have taken dozens of lives, had it been not caught.
But this successful raid by security forces would not solve the
problem of terrorism without securing the Pak-Afghan border.

Pakistan must fence this border, at least the part lie in Baluchistan. It is high time for Pakistan to take radical measures to combat this
transnational terrorism phenomenon which already has rendered many states dysfunctional and failed!
Foreign fighters flow to Syria
An estimated 15,000 militants from at least 80 nations are believed to have entered Syria to help overthrow the regime of President
Bashar al-Assad according the CIA and studies by ISCR and The Soufan Group. Many of these fighters are believed to have joined
units that are now part of the Islamic State. Western officals are concerned about what these individuals may do upon returning to
their native countries.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/foreign-fighters-flow-to-syria/2014/10/11/3d2549fa-5195-11e4-8c24-487e92bc997b_graphic.
html

ANALYSIS:

This map, published by Washington Post, explains the influx of ISIS fighters from all over the world. This flow of fighters is indeed a
concerning factor as reported in the related news story. But it also raises few very important questions regarding this transnational
phenomenon which is new and unique in modern history.
Why none of these states, shown in the map, was able to effectively block the inflow of militants in Syria? Why there is no scramble
at global level to introduce more rigorous measures to prevent this flow of militants?
How ISIS manage to spread its violent ideology so swiftly across the three continents?
How come ISIS sustained in maintain its central command structure and did not divided into splinters like TTP after its leadership
was assassinated?
How ISIS is managing its financial resources in presence of strict monitoring and military assaults by the US led coalition?
All these questions makes it clear that there is lot more going on in Syrian conflict than what meets the eye. Despite being in the
anti-ISIS collation, some of the states are fighting their own proxy wars against each other using anti-ISIS war as a cover. Ethnic
and Sectarian factors are also affecting the allegiance of coalition partners. But in the middle of this crisis is US post 9/11 Middle
East policy which despite change in White House, not only not changed but it became more violent in its application. First it were
American mercenaries fighting and killing in Iraq (Black water, XE World Wide) but now that the same role has been taken by ISIS
and other groups like that. Knowingly or unknowingly they are destroying the Islam as political and financial alternative to crumbling
capitalistic model. Senseless mass killings of dozens of people and using Islamic slogans at the same time are painting Islam as
a violent ideology. By looking at the inaction of powerful players in ME geopolitics to prevent this free flow of militants in Syria it is
prudent that some forces are also waging this grand war against Islam as well.

17 dead as militants attack army camp in Indian-held Kashmir

SRINAGAR: Militants in Indian-held Kashmir attacked an Indian army camp
Friday, triggering a fierce gun-battle that left 11 Indian troops and six suspected assailants dead, officials said.
An army officer told The Associated Press the rebels hurled grenades and
fired automatic rifles as they tried to enter an artillery unit of the camp in the
Uri region before dawn, officials said.
The sprawling camp, also the regional headquarters of the armys artillery
regiment, is near the heavily militarised line of control.
Eight soldiers including a lieutenant colonel and three policemen were killed
on the Indian side, police said. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity
as they were not authorised to speak to media.
http://www.dawn.com/news/1148956/17-dead-as-militants-attack-army-camp-in-indian-held-kashmir
ANALYSIS:

Palestinians have a legit right to fight the Zionists! Similarly, Kashmiri also have the right to fight for freedom. Killing of 11 Indian military men including a Lt. Col. in Indian occupied Kashmir is a harsh reminder to Hindu Zionists that resistance is alive. But in these
latest attacks in Kashmir, we also have to see the element of a false flag op by Indian army to create a reason to attack Pakistan!
In the past multiple terror attacks were blamed on Pakistan but Indian Military Intelligence officers were involved like Malegaon Bombing. Similarly, dozens of Pakistanis were killed when a train was bombed by RSS terrorists within Indian Army. Pakistani groups were
blamed but it was Indian MI which perpetrated the whole operation as part of Indian strategy to malign Pakistan. Even the famous
Mumbai attacks were done by the Indian govt to create a reason to blame Pakistan & make harsh laws. Indians are aggressively
preparing for a limited war with Pakistan & needed a false flag attack to justify it.
US policy on Kashmir has not changed: Marie Harf
Washington: The US on Saturday said its policy on Kashmir has
not changed and it is for India and Pakistan to decide on the pace
and scope of peace talks between them.
Our policy on Kashmir hasnt changed. We still believe that
the pace and the scope and character of India and Pakistans
dialogue on Kashmir is for those two countries to determine,
State Department Deputy Spokesperson Marie Harf told reporters here.
We are concerned about any violence in Kashmir, she said.
Of course our embassies in both places have raised these types
of incidents with their respective host governments and certainly
encouraged both to continue working together on the issue, she
said in response to a question.
http://zeenews.india.com/news/india/us-policy-on-kashmir-has-not-changed-marie-harf_1510242.html
Analysis

US admits that Kashmir is a issue between two nuclear armed states of South East Asia which needs a peaceful and durable solution and that is only possible if both states let Kashmiris to choose what they want and accept whatever the result may be. Any other
scheme or idea would not provide a permanent solution. Kashmir belongs to Kashmiris and only they must choose their political future
as society

Takfir & Sectarianism

Resurregence of Old Hibernating Sidewinder!

Abstract:

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

Sectarian differences, even clashes, is nothing new within the Muslim world. Before the fall of Ottoman Empire, some 100 years ago, this rift was confined within the scholarly circles and academics
of the Muslim World. It never presented an existential threat to the stability of any Muslim land.
But right after the fall of Ottoman Empire, the seeds of present crisis were spread when Muslim
lands were divided based on Arab nationalism. With this artificial division, these sectarian differences turned into a complex transnational phenomenon, threatening the stability of the entire
region. Historically, this is unprecedented. In modern geopolitics, this phenomenon has become a
centrifugal force tearing apart multiple Muslim societies and the states.
Geopolitical challenges in Middle East are much compounded than what meets the eye. Beneath
this ostensibly single-faceted sectarian strife, hidden dynamics ranging political history of the region to the geopolitical ambitions of global power players are covertly shaping this entire conflict.
Presenting this geopolitical contest as a mere sectarian conflict is part of a much larger scheme of
things.
This paper is a quest in putting the sectarian dimension of ensuing pandemonium in the entire
Middle East into a larger perspective of global politics through retrospective analysis of various
historic and contemporary political developments. This essay also examines the phenomenon of
takfir within various sects of Shia and Sunni and suggests some steps which can provide the basis
for a more inclusive social-political regional strategy to put this venomous sidewinder back in the
hibernation which has been wreaking havoc in multiple Muslim states!

I heard the Messenger of Allah (peace be upon him) saying, If someone accuses another of disbelief or calls him the enemy of Allah, such an accusation will revert to him (the accuser) if the accused is innocent.
Hazrat Abu Dharr Al Ghiffari (RA)

Background:
Before analyzing the atrocious ideology of Takfir and its physical manifestation i.e. sectarian violence as a
tool of complex modern geopolitics, it is critical to understand one fundamental principle. The issue of Takfir
and sectarianism cannot be seen in isolation as it is directly linked with an even bigger, older and more perplexing phenomenon of khawarijism. These Khawarij were the first sect in Islamic history who appeared
during the rule of Prophet Muhemmed (sm) in Madina. Before their emergence, there were no sects in Islam
and only a singular interpretation, given by Sunnah and Hadith of Prophet (sm), was considered the final verdict about all the matters, religious or otherwise. And this is the group who made the companions of Prophet of
Islam (sm) to fight each other through their sheer propaganda and deception prowess. These were the people,
who practically introduced the phenomenon of Takfir by declaring other Muslims infidels including Sahabah
like Umer (R.A), Usman (R.A) and Ali (R.A). They were the people who assassinated the last three caliphs of
Islam and proved to be a strategic tool against Islam. Finally, these Khawarij were responsible for the creation
of Shia-Sunni divide among Muslim societies just to fulfill their own political agenda which had nothing to
do with Islam whatsoever!
Understanding this history of first sect in Islam along with its violent ideology remains a critical imperative
as modern day sectarian strife, in the greater Middle East region, drives its ideological inspirations, narratives
and rationale from that early age of Islam. This also dispels another general misconception, which has been
prevalent among Muslims since centuries now, that Karbala was the starting point of present day sectarianism.
Indeed, this was not the case!
This phenomenon intensified once the great Muslim Empire of Ottoman Caliphate was divided on the nationalistic and sectarian basis. This changed the entire complexion of Muslim thought process. The debate over
western concepts like nation state, democracy and liberalism further divided Muslim societies as latter were
not prepared or educated for any of these alien concepts. It baffled the Islamic scholars as well and they failed
to present any counter-narrative. Every sect, in order to further its political agenda, used sectarian card. Final
goal was to get into the power!
To understand this complex dimension, we will have to revisit the traditional debate over sectarianism. The
debate over sectarian dynamics of geopolitics will have to be reached from reverse perspective. It is time
to investigate the role of geopolitical forces in shaping this entire sectarian chaos. Takfir is not a goal in itself.
Early history of Islam has proven this as a fact. It has always been deployed as a tool in a larger political strategy. With the nation state variable emplaced in the regional geopolitical equation, takfir became a transnational

phenomenon recognizing no borders or limitations. Outcome was more deadly divisions with the Muslims
states. Apart from crossing over the international borders, takfir became a centrifugal force even within the
states dividing them further and at a third level almost all major sects today have divisions within.
Amid all this ideological confusion, state of Israel was created in Muslim heartland right after World War II.
It was not acceptable for any Muslim sect except those who were given the thrones after fall of Ottomans.
Strong anti-Israel sentiments began to emerge in Arab world but after 1973 Arab-Israel war, all the major conflicts took place within the Arabs. Since 1979, these internal conflicts have become so severe that entire Muslim world has become irrelevant as far as threat of Israel is concerned. The impunity with which Israel carried
out the genocide of Palestinians, in recent aggression in Gaza, is the most vivid testimony of this fact.
Another interesting aspect of this entire sectarian axis which cannot be overlooked is the fact that the sectarian
violence intensifies whenever Khawarij resurge in any Muslim society. They waged wars upon other Muslims
by doing their takfir (i.e. declaring them kafir) which has often caused creation of new sects in Islam. This
is how Muslim world has been divided into so many sects. Forces afraid of Islam as a political ideology, use
this internal sectarian divide to cause infighting among the Muslims to further the political chaos in Muslim
heartland. It is nadir of Islamic history that due to the presence of sect-based governments in various Islamic
countries, the entire region has been sucked into a strategic quagmire. Today, there is no unity of thought in
any Muslim nation state or even within any sect of Islam. Result? A complete social, political and national
breakdown!

Current State of Affairs:

Below is a brief snapshot of prevailing political and national breakdown rampant in the entire Middle East
and beyond.
Today, Shia militants are at war with Yemen's Sunni government while Sunni Arabs has joined the US
to attack the Shia regime of Syria.
In Iraq, Sunni insurgents have been waging war against a Shia government.
Saddam, despite being a secular Baathist, pretended to be a Sunni and occupied another Sunni state
Kuwait which instigated the first Gulf War and Saddams own downfall.

Shia-Sunni conflict, tearing apart Iraq

 Syria becomes the 7th Muslim country to be bombed by US since 2003 with ensuing crisis encircling
countries as far afield as Turkey and Ukraine.
Saudi Salafis are ruthless against Shia Iranians. But not all of them as Salafis themselves are divided into
multiple sub-sects based on their interpretations.1
In 2003, Iran joined hands with the US to overthrow Saddam regime and bring a Shia government. But,
in 2010, Iraqi Shia political front refused to ally with Iran backed political groups.2
First CIA/Mossad, Sunni Arabs created ISIS. Then they join hands "against" it, creating justification for
invasion of Syria for expansion of Israels political and strategic influence and even its current borders.
Mossad/CIA created a Frankenstein called ISIS and presented it as a Sunni militant outfit.3 A group of
ruthless murderous thugs of Khawarij. Now US join hands with Iran against it.

Complete destruction and chaos, ultimate outcome of Sectarian wars

US backed Shia Arab Iraqi government is opposing the airstrikes by US backed Sunni Arab states but
has no problem with bombing campaign by the US,UK and France in Iraq.4
Iran fully cooperated with CIA in overthrowing Saddam in Iraq & Taliban in Afghanistan. Now Israeli
ISIS killing Shias in Iraq as well.
Iran supported the US against Sunni Baathist Saddam, but is supporting another Shia Baathist regime in
Syria against the US.
CIA created Sunni Jindullah against Shia Iran to launch insurgency and terrorism in Iran.5 Saudi funded,
Pakistani sectarian groups also joined this anti-Shia jihad which is creation of CIA.

Jundullah A CIA creation against Iran!

Saudia Arabia and UAE are the biggest financial suppliers of these sectarian militant factions. Still, the
KSA and UAE are strategic partner of Israel and the US against Palestinian.
OIC Says it cannot stop a state as small as Israel6 but the entire Arab world has no concern fighting
against much larger Syria.
The sectarian wars of the ME have reached Pakistan also. Sectarian killings and violence has increased
during the recent years.7 If you praise Iran, you are branded as a Shia agent, else a Saudi wahabi terrorist.
This is the insanity & complexity of the Middle East crisis. One can only be a NATO Sunni & a Russian
Shia in Syria, a NATO Arab Shia in Iraq against Iranian Non-Arab Shia.
The Syria crisis has divided the Muslim resistance movements as well. Hizbullah supports Bashar but
Hamas is against Bashar.
Terrorism is a crime against humanity. Islam has made it categorically clear in Quran. But unfortunately,
today even such crime is condemned from a sectarian perspective.

There is either Sunni killings or a Shia genocide What about Muslims?

Political Dynamics behind Sectarian Violence: A Modern History

By looking at this complexity of political-sectarian anarchy in the entire Muslim world, one might wonder;
how things went wrong to such an extent? Why nobody was able to see this all coming? To find the answers,
we will have to untangle the role of political powers, both regional and global, in instigating sectarian violence
as a policy tool to serve their strategic political interests in the region.
1979 remains the most important year in modern history of Middle East. The events which took place during
this years shaped the entire geopolitics of today. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, start of Iran-Iraq war and
the Iranian Revolution were major developments which took place during that time period. Iranian revolution
basically was a Shia revolution but was presented as Islamic revolution. Iran-Iraq war was presented as a war
between Shia-Sunnis. These developments not only deepened the sectarian fault lines but also provided impetus for the Israeli Zionists to widen the fault lines within the Arab world using sectarianism as strategic tool.
Internal political and nationalistic rifts within the Islamic world also helped the Zionist agenda. Oppressive
regimes in Iraq, Syria, Egypt and Gulf states give rise to political centrifugal tendencies but as the all these

Iranian Revolution was not Islamic but presented as one for political gains. Iran continued to
receive Israeli weapons to fight against Iraq who were supplied weapons by the US in ten years
long Iran-Iraq war.
regimes were utterly non-democratic, cruel and unIslamic, they tried to oppress these forces through state
power. This was the manifestation of Cold War era geopolitics. The US and USSR both were supporting their
respective client states in Middle East. CIAs operation Cyclone, in Afghanistan, enabled Langley to penetrate

in both Shia and Sunni militant groups using Arab agents. This has been pithily put in words by Brig. (R)
Samson Simon Sharaf

CIA also got control of Takfiris to employ against the USSR. The scenario was often played in
CENTCOM War Games warranting US intervention. Lawrence of Arabia lived a thousand lives in
these scripts. 8
Till 1990's, there were three Socialist, pro-Soviet Baathist regimes in the Middle East. Iraq was ruled by
Saddam, Syria by Hafiz ul Asad, father of Bashar and Libya was being ruled by Qaddafi. All 3 were secular
governments, which hanged, killed, exiled hundreds of thousands of Muslims for demanding Islamic laws
in their countries. Not only this, but they tortured and killed all those Mujahideen who returned home after
Soviet Union was defeated in the gorges of Afghanistan. After 9/11, both Iran and Syria cooperated with the
CIA in its torturous rendition programs9 and now both are on top of American hitlist.
Only occasion when the entire Muslim World displayed some kind of unity was during early 1970s and
1980s when Pakistan persuaded the Arabs to use the oil exports to the West as a strategic weapon. Ironically,
almost every noticeable leader who participated in 1974 OICs Lahore Summit met with a horrible end. Former President of Pakistan, General Zia ul Haq, undoubtedly, was the last leader in the entire Muslim world
who tried to bring Muslim Ummah in a united political fold. Unfortunately, whatever remains of the Muslim

Reaching out to both the Sunni and Shia regimes in Middle East -- President Zias diplomatic overtures for the united Islamic block.
world today, comprises only on political carpetbaggers and American touts.
At that time, Saddam was a friend of CIA, fighting against Iran in the entire 1980's but then became an enemy
of CIA when Iraq invaded Kuwait and the first Gulf war started. CIA used Saddam to destroy Iran and then
used him again to attack Middle East in first and second gulf wars and finally hanged him after 2004. Through
this systematic intervention in the Middle East, the US got herself in a position to reshape the entire political
map of the Middle East based on the Sectarian lines. This is why Arabs and Egypt suffered so heavily in
1973 war against Israel. The borders of Israel expanded while Afro-Arab states like Egypt, Jordon and Syria
shrunk.
Today, when the US intelligence apparatus in the Middle East has become too strong to be shaken, the entire
Middle East political landscape has been divided based on what Counncil for Foreign Relation has called
Branches of Islam, making it almost a childs play for the CIA/Mossad/MI6 to manipulate whoever they
want in the region!

Branches of Islam A strategic tool in war of ideas and belief. Often employed to divide and
rule Muslims. (Source: Council on Foreign Relations)10

Present Chaos: Continuation of Previous Wars:

The historical analysis of sectarianism as a strategic tool, of the Zionists, dispels the prevalent erroneous impression that the present Middle East chaos is a new phenomenon. It may be new on the operational and tactical
levels, but at the strategic and grand-strategic levels of warfare, this is just the continuation of the old wars.
Means and Ways have changed only but the strategic goals remain the same!
Seeds of division of Iraq were sown in the First Gulf War, during the early 1990s, with the creation of an autonomous Kurd region. Next step was to remove a strong leader like Saddam who somehow was able to keep the
country united. Actual target was never Saddam but the Iraqi Army. Once incapacitated through few compromised generals, creation of Kurd autonomous region for more control over Iraqi oil was used as a psy-ops to
instigate Iraqi Sunni insurgency, which erupted in 2006, to demand their own autonomous region effectively
breaking the country. After the fall of Saddam Iraqi Army was turned into an ineffective militia due to continued sectarian tensions, promotion on the basis of ethno-sectarian kinship ties rather than professionalism,
corruption on a massive and grotesque scale, poor command, control and communications systems because of
the politicians mistrust of the officer corps.11
The Iranians cooperated in plans to instigate this insurgency by supporting the oppressive regime of Nur Al
Malaki. Iraqis realized this and reacted against it, in 2010, by rejecting the Iran backed Shia political alliance.
But this didnt change much on ground as Baghdad government is a still predominately Shia regime. Sunni
militants rebel against Baghdad, in a desperate bid to remove Shia regime and restore Sunni regime like Saddam, not realizing that he was not a Sunni but a Baathist. To make the matters worse, ISIS has been killing both
Sunni and Shia further amplifying the crisis!
As a recruitment policy, Israel and the UK extensively used the idea of Takfir. They brainwashed Muslim youth

of Europe. A false notion that their version of religion

would ultimately prevail over other Muslim sects and all
the other Arab religions like Christians, Bahha, Druz,
Yazidi and Zoroastrians was instilled in their minds. Even
they are not aware why they are fighting and now after
realizing how they have been trapped, they are desperate to go back home12 but to prevent this reverse flux of
these brainwashed Muslim youths, the US has launched
a war against them after ignoring them for so long. This
new war which is being waged in the deserts of Iraq and
Levant shall push the entire region further into strategic
swirl. Turkey has already announced to become part of
this war. This decision is going to have long term strategic implications for the future ties between Ankara and
Damascus.
Turkey has been fighting against the PKK insurgency for
years now. A peace deal was reached between Ankara
Various sectarian centrifugal forces tearing
and PKK. To make it a reality, special law was approved
oil rich Muslim nation apart!
by the Turkish government.13 Now when ISIS is advancing towards the Kurdish town of Kubane near the Turkish border in Syria, PKK is asking Erdogan to fight IS if
Ankara wants to save that peace treaty.14 ISIS creation has nothing to do with Turkey but due to this threat Turkey has been forced to change its policy of "Zero Problems with neighbors". Turkish Prime Minister, Ahmet
Davutoglu devised this policy when he was Turkish Foreign Minister. Turkey started to forge the regional
alliances with the Middle Eastern states and tried to end the international isolation of states like Syria and
Iran.15 But now Turkey has decided to intervene in Syria and due to this decision the entire strategic equation
has become even more delicate.
Today, Turkey stands at the same crossroad where Pakistan was after 9/11 when General Musharraf, as President, had to decide about its Afghan policy. The decision Turkey has taken is also similar to what Pakistan
did back then and like Pakistan, Turkey also has her own reasons. The outcome of this decision remains an
enigma for now and which shall be unfolded in the coming weeks and months. The war in Syria is going to be
protracted one. Israelis would do everything to push the ISIS brigades into Turkey turning 900 KM long Turkish-Syrian border in another geopolitical hotspot like Pakistan-Afghan border has become!

Future Dynamics:
In this entire Shia-Sunni, Arab-Persian wars, the net beneficiary is Israel, decimating the Muslim countries
around it, expanding its political influence in the region. It looks like that Jordan, Saudi Arabia and perhaps
Lebanon sans Hezbollah are onboard with this plan. Israel has an intrinsic vulnerability due to its thin geography and is in desperate need of some kind of strategic depth.
Israel has already shown her intentions to punish Hezbollah for resisting this Israeli expansionist plan.16 Israel
is preparing for another war in the region. On the other hand, Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Sheikh
Naeem Kassem has rightly pointed to the fact that these takfiri groups are actually benefiting Israel, since
they create sedition and internal fighting.17 Not only this, he succinctly analyzed that the differences between
these groups and other groups are not religious, but are rather political.18
This trend will continue in the future as well unless Muslim states perceive this threat with the same sensitivities all over the world. And for that, it is imperative to create some kind of union among Muslim states where

Zionists are the real masterminds behind sectarian wars in Islamic World
Even their own confess!
scholars of policy and strategy can deliberate on issues like Takfir and Khawarij as a tool of the western strategy.
Despite all the internal chaos within the Muslim world, there is silver lining on the horizon as well. The international reaction over Israels recent aggression in Gaza has put Tel Aviv on the back foot. Now, Israeli troops
are committing suicides and openly defying the policies of Israeli government. These developments have put
Israeli government in panic to such an extent that Israeli defense minister Moshe Yaalon had to declare the
protest of 43 officers of elite intelligence unit of Israel, Unit 8200, as vile and reprehensible19 while the
Intelligence and strategic affairs minister of Israel, Yuval Steinitz, had to declare it an act of subversion that
deserves punishment.20
These dynamics of internal politics of Israel provide impetuses to the Muslim nations to initiate their own
diplomatic overtures to build a cohesive narrative of geopolitical unity among the Muslim societies. This is
a strategic imperative because the real target of the entire Middle East chaos is the social unity and political
cohesion of the Muslim nations. If achieved, this unity of thought would be the first step towards the creation
of a collective security and economic block within the Muslim world. Any such eventuality would be a security nightmare for Israel as Tel Aviv is well aware of the fact that once Muslims get united, overcoming their
political differences, the security of state of Israel would be in complete jeopardy. After achieving this much
needed political unity in the strategic thought process of Muslims, sectarian violence would also diminish
inevitably. This would not be an easy task but time to act is now before it gets too late.
No Muslim sect has ever accepted the creation of Israel. This fact explains why it is critical for Israel and
her allies to instigate infightings within the Muslim world using their political cronies and touts. This is what
transpiring across the entire swathe of Muslim heartland. In reality, the war is political, not sectarian. Sooner
we realize this, faster we will be able to rid of this menace of sectarianism.

Pakistan has a critical role to play to create a conducive strategic environment for the diplomatic overtures
discussed above. A radical shift is required in Islamabads foreign policy to make these overtures and eventual
rise of united state of Islam a reality.

Policy Options for Pakistan

Pakistans foreign policy vision must be completely non-sectarian. There must be complete balance towards Pakistans diplomatic engagements with Riyadh and Tehran. Pakistan has already done that during Zia
regime in 1980s.
Pakistan's interest lies in building the strongest regional blocks with Tehran, Riyadh and Ankara. The
mutual distrust of Arabs, Iranians & Turks can only be pacified by a strong Pakistani leadership, which is
supposed to have good relations with all 3 nations.
Pakistans first priority should be the cessation of all support to military wings of sectarian outfits from
Middle Eastern states followed by an independent foreign policy. Though it would be daunting task in the
presence of current compromised regimes but there is no alternative line of action is available.
Pakistan, Iran and Turkey need to revive the RDC in accordance with the dynamically changing strategic
milieu in the region. Pakistan has relied upon the Arabs for too long now. It is time to bring in a structural
reform in foreign policy. Events transpiring around Pakistan demand that Pakistan, Iran and Turkey to join
hands to cope with these security and political challenges if not for the security of hapless Muslims in the
Middle East, but for their own security.
Russia and China have become crucial factors in the Eurasian geopolitics. Recent developments in
Ukraine, Balkan and Black Sea regions clearly indicate that Russia is reemerging in the region with China restoring balance of global maritime power in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. New Pakistani foreign
policy must incorporate these facts as pivotal points. Pakistan needs radical adjustments in its foreign policy
towards Moscow, Beijing and Washington. Right now, it remains too lopsided.
Keeping the close bilateral security relations between Israel and India in mind, Pakistan needs to revisit
its India policy as well. Indian involvement in the increased sectarian violence, particularly in Karachi, must
be investigated vigorously. Since the creation of Pakistan, Indians have been using the same sectarian ruse
against it which Israelis employed against the Arabs to make them fight each other.

Conclusion:
The entire sectarian chaos within the Muslim world actually is the manifestation of collision of political interests of various governments in the region. Unfortunately, most of these governments are working on the
behest of Israel and the West. The final strategic aim of these artificially created sectarian wars is to protect the
Israeli borders and whenever possible to expand these.
As new power centers are emerging on the grand chessboard of global politics, new opportunities of strategic
outreach for the Muslim nations are also emerging. But to take advantage of these emerging opportunities,
Muslim world would need to get rid of Cold War era strategic thought process. For Pakistan too, this is perhaps the only way forward to crawl out of this strategic pothole where the state is struggling for survival on
daily basis.
**********************

End Notes:
1. Dr. Yasir Qadhi, On Salaf Islam, Muslimmatters.org, 22nd April 2014, http://cdn.muslimmatters.org/wp-content/uploads/
On-Salafi-Islam_Dr.-Yasir-Qadhi.pdf
2. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki had resisted Iranian efforts to form a united Shia bloc. He led his own State of Law Coalition
(SLC), a predominately Shia Islamist bloc with substantial secular elements. It competed against both the Iranian-aligned Iraqi National Alliance (INA) and the Iraqi National Movement, or Iraqiya coalition, a mixture of Sunnis and secular Shia nominally headed
by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi.
Kirk H. Sowell, Iraqs Second Sunni Insurgency Analysis, Hudson Institute, 9th Aug 2014,
http://www.hudson.org/research/10505-iraq-s-second-sunni-insurgency
3. Kevin Barrett, ISIS: a Frankenstein monster created by the US and Israel, 25th Aug 2014, http://www.darkmoon.me/2014/
isis-frankenstein-monster-created-us-israel/
4. BBC, Islamic State crisis: Abadi opposes Arab strikes in Iraq, 1st Oct 2014,
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29447201
5. ABC News, ABC News Exclusive: The Secret War Against Iran, 3rd April 2007,
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2007/04/abc_news_exclus
6. Ikram Junaidi, Arab states cannot stop Israel: OIC secretary-general, Daily Dawn, 5th Aug, 2014, http://www.dawn.com/
news/1123391
7. Sectarian violence increased in 2013, says report, Daily Dawn, 6th Jan, 2014, http://www.dawn.com/news/1078664
8. Brigadier (Retired) Samson Simon Sharaf, Takfiri: The Arab sidewinder, Daily Nation, 9th August 2014, http://www.nation.
com.pk/columns/09-Aug-2014/takfiri-the-arab-sidewinder
9. Ian Cobain, CIA rendition: more than a quarter of countries offered covert support, The Guardian, 5th Feb 2013, http://
www.theguardian.com/world/2013/feb/05/cia-rendition-countries-covert-support
10.The Sunni-Shia Divide, Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.cfr.org/peace-conflict-and-human-rights/sunni-shia-divide/p33176#!/?cid=soc-twitter-in-infoguide-sunni_shia_divide-071514#!%2F
11. Ahmed S. Hashim, Defeating IS: Will The Obama Strategy Succeed? Analysis, Eurasian Review, 17th Sep 2014, http://
www.eurasiareview.com/17092014-defeating-will-obama-strategy-succeed-analysis
12. British Jihadists Fighting In Syria Regret Their Decision To Leave UK And Want To Come Home, The Huffington Post UK,
5th Sep 2014, http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/09/05/british-jihadists-islamic-state-syria_n_5770400.html
13. Turkey approves law allowing talks with PKK, Aljazeera News, 15th Jul 2014, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/07/turkey-approves-law-allowing-talks-with-pkk-2014715182324519257.html
14. Massacre in Kobane would end PKKs peace talks with Turkey: calan, Hurriyat Daily News, 2nd Oct 2014, http://www.
hurriyetdailynews.com/massacre-in-kobane-would-end-pkks-peace-talks-with-turkey-ocalan.aspx
15. Under zero problems with neighbors, the AKP government established economic and political alliances in the Middle East,
forged strategic relationships with regional actors, took part in regional initiatives, and sought to play an active role in the resolution
of regional conflicts. Turkeys mediating role in regional conflicts won it favorable notice in the Arab world. For instance, Ankaras
efforts to break the isolation imposed on Syria and Iran by the United States were well received, contributing to Turkeys image as
an independent actor willing to defy Western powers if necessary.
Dr. Gnl Tol, Turkeys Search For Zero Problem Policy, Middle East Institute ,25th Nov. 2013, http://www.mei.edu/content/
turkeys-search-zero-problem-policy
16. Israeli army chief: Hezbollah poses greater threat than Hamas, Al Arabiya English Website, 4th Oct 2014, http://english.
alarabiya.net/en/News/2014/10/04/Israeli-military-chief-says-Hezbollah-poses-greater-threat-than-Hamas.html

17. Mariam Saleh , Muslim clerics speak against Takfiri ideology, Press TV, 4th Jul 2014, http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/07/04/312146/muslim-clerics-speak-against-takfiri-ideology
18. Ibid
19. Calev Ben-David, Israel Slams Soldiers Who Say They Wont Be Tools to Persecute Palestinians, Bloomberg News, 14th
Sep 2014, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-14/israeli-officials-condemn-protest-by-intelligence-unit-soldiers.html
29. Ibid